Four Keys to the Twins Making the Playoffs

[Eric Blonigen]

Following an off-day in which both the Guardians and Royals won, and a trade deadline where the Twins failed to address their needs, one could argue that they are no better than third in the AL Central, The Twins hold the third Wild Cart spot by just two games over the Red Sox, with the vastly-improved Mariners on their heels. With this precarious position in mind, there are four keys to holding onto the final playoff spot down the stretch.

Image courtesy of David Berding/Getty Images

Fangraphs currently has the Twins playoff odds at 80.6%. They are tied with Cleveland with the third-highest chances of any team in the American League to win the World Series. Those odds are better than what it feels like to many fans, considering the Twins complete inactivity at the trade deadline. Savvy moves were made by their competitors. Finally, the fact remains that the Twins just haven’t been able to pick up ground on the Guardians or Royals over the past couple months despite generally good play.

If the Twins hope to play meaningful games in October, they will need four things to break their way: health of the team, starting pitching staying consistent, head-to-head matchups against the Guardians and Royals, and one of Jhoan Duran or Brock Stewart to return to peak form. Let’s dig into each of these needs.

Health
The Twins have no shortage of players who have been snakebit throughout their careers. In the past four seasons, Royce Lewis has suffered two torn ACLs and four separate soft tissue injuries that caused him to lose time. Byron Buxton has played more than 100 games exactly once in his 10-year career (although he is on track to well-exceed that mark this season). Carlos Correa has been shelved for the past three weeks while dealing with his second bout of plantar fasciitis. And Jose Miranda, after losing most of the 2023 season to a shoulder injury and the resulting ineffectiveness that went along with that, has spent time on the IL and returned, only to be hit in the head by a pitch almost immediately.

These are just the injuries dealt to our keystone hitters. Take into account role players like Anthony DeSclafani and Daniel Duarte who won’t throw a pitch for the Twins this season, Kyle Farmer dealing with a season-long injury, and Alex Kirilloff seeking a second opinion on his back injury, and it’s clear that the Twins can’t withstand many more injuries as the ready-now depth is all playing for the parent club already.

Starting pitching
In October, should the Twins make it there, they will need three playoff-caliber starters. They (likely) have them in Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober. However, to MAKE it to October, they will also need strong production out of their other starters while their top-three continue to pitch well.

Currently, the Twins are relying on two rookies, Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa, with Zebby Matthews waiting in the wings. That’s threading a needle and hoping against regression.

Throughout the 2024 season, Twins fans have watched a few storylines play out among the starting pitchers.

Pablo Lopez had a rough first half, but is rounding into form. He has been dominant over his past seven starts but will need to be consistent every fifth day. The key appears to be execution of his sweeper.

Joe Ryan has a track record of starting a season strong, then fading down the stretch. He has been much more consistent than in years past, but has two months to go. Can he keep it up without wearing down?

Bailey Ober has historically been treated with kid gloves due to his injury history. This season has been a different story. Outside his games against the Royals, Ober has been consistent and great. Nick Nelson has a great writeup of Ober's changes here. Per The Athletic's Aaron Gleeman, Ober has the second-best career ERA of any Twins starting pitcher going back to 1980, behind Johan Santana. As Ober approaches his career-high in innings, will he be able to keep it up? If so, he might be special. 

Most evaluators have Simeon Woods Richardson as having a back-of-the-rotation arm upside. However, through his first 18 starts, he has put up a 3.74 with a 4.33 xFIP. That’s still solid for a #4 or good #5 starter, but the team might need more than that from him. Will he regress, or can he give the Twins eight more good starts?

David Festa began the season as the likely #8 starter. He has been thrust into duty earlier than expected due to injuries to DeSclafani and Paddack, and due to Louis Varland’s ineffectiveness this season. Festa began his major-league career with two terrible starts and was sent down, but has looked much better in his second stint with the big league club. Can the Slim Reaper continue to develop in real-time? If not, is Zebby ready?

The Twins had better hope the starting pitching staff can keep it up.

Head to head games against the Guardians and RoyalsAt the trade deadline, both the Guardians and the Royals did what their fan bases expected - they made moves to improve their rosters, with the intention of making deep playoff runs. The Twins, famously, did nothing. That fact puts the Twins at a disadvantage compared to their AL Central foes.

Over the past two months, the Twins place in the AL Central standings has been static, despite playing good baseball over that stretch, and winning nine of their past ten series’. Twins fans have been waiting for the Guardians or Royals to falter, but they haven’t. Now, the competition will be fiercer as both teams are better than they were a week ago.

Over the final 45 games of the season, we play the Guardians eight times and the Royals six times. While these games will be hard-fought (maybe don’t start Ober against the Royals?), our path to the playoffs becomes much more straightforward if we can play .600 baseball or better against both of them. Playing .750 would be better. Is that realistic?

Duran OR Stewart returning to peak form

A good, playoff-caliber team needs at least two shutdown options at the back of the bullpen. This allows for moderating workloads and protecting a late lead in a must-win game. So far this season, Griffin Jax has been our only consistent back-of-the-bullpen pitcher. To make it to October, the Twins will need one of Jhoan Duran or Brock Stewart to return to their peak form.

In 2024, Jhoan Duran’s stuff is clearly diminished, and his pitches have all lost significant velocity compared to career norms. Is this tied to the injury he suffered prior to spring training? Is it due to a mechanical issue? Is this a case of one of the best relievers in baseball burning bright and declining early? Hopefully the Twins training staff has a sense of which of these is the root cause, and has an idea of how to help.

Brock Stewart has dealt with injuries all throughout his career, and that trend has continued as he's on the shelf with a shoulder strain. When healthy, he has some of the most dominant stuff in our system. Can he get healthy down the stretch?

If either pitcher returns to form, with Jorge Alcala, (hopefully) Justin Topa, and Cole Sands behind them in setup roles, the bullpen should be playoff-caliber. If neither pitcher can elevate once again, then our best option may be to reintroduce Louie Varland to the bullpen and hope for the best.

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What do you think? Are the Twins likely to achieve most or all of these keys? Will this be enough? Comment below to start the discussion!

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[Karbo]

IMO Varland should be put back in the pen for at least the rest of the season. The next couple of weeks ar critical for the playoff hopes. It looks to me like they will need to win at least 6 of the 8 vs Cleveland, and hopefully sweep the Royals. Now that would be a statement. With a series against both coming up, the time is NOW!

[Whitey333]

Yes the keys to the season will be games against Royals and Guards.  Yes starting next weekend the Twins need to win 3 of the 4 .  Best players must be in the lineup and not given days off.  With Rocco you never know what kind if screwy lineups you may get.  Go Twins.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

The most important game of the year is the one today,  Just beat the White Sox today.  One game at a time. 

[High heat]

53 minutes ago, Karbo said:

IMO Varland should be put back in the pen for at least the rest of the season. The next couple of weeks ar critical for the playoff hopes. It looks to me like they will need to win at least 6 of the 8 vs Cleveland, and hopefully sweep the Royals. Now that would be a statement. With a series against both coming up, the time is NOW!

I think you’ll see Varland continue to start for 2 more weeks.  If mid August you either have Paddack back or SWR and Festa are still rolling he will transition to the bullpen ( for good hopefully) and be ready to join the bullpen for September when rosters expand.

[DJL44]

Quote

That’s threading a needle and hoping against regression.

Will he regress, or can he give the Twins eight more good starts?

I keep seeing "regression" used to indicate worse performance. In math the term just means that over a large sample a player's performance will tend to their long-term baseline. Christian Vazquez has "regressed" by hitting with a .910 OPS in July which brings his stats UP to his baseline expectation. If Woods Richardson is a good pitcher, then his statline is right at expectations and regression would just mean continued performance at this level.

[JD-TWINS]

Varland as a starter, just in case, for balance of August. If starters are stable, he transitions to Pen for last 3 weeks in September. Paddack, if healthy, is on the same timeline and path to the Pen.

Health & Health are the keys.

Correa back - Stewart back - Topa contributing ……… these things happen and all else will be good. If we can add these 3 over next 2-4 weeks it will be a big shot in the arm!

Really don’t understand the complaints about Duran’s “stuff/velocity”? The guy is down 2 miles an hour on his fastball……100.8MPH. Jax throws 97 and he’s “electric”! Duran’s location and pitch sequencing are his issues. Throwing 3 straight curveballs to Bryce Harper - hanging a curveball to Jose Ramirez ….,,those are his real problems. Pitch mix is pretty easy to alter and get smarter about. His fastball in the zone to start, sets up his other two pitches - stop being cute and pitching backwards to look cool!! Command is every pitcher’s challenge - this, IMO, is what he needs to reign in to be consistently effective.

Curve at 86MPH - Fastball at 100.5MPH - Splinker at 96.5MPH are all plenty fast enough.

Stewart’s shoulder better by September 10th - I sure hope so!

[Doctor Gast]

Even with early injuries to key players & ineffectiveness of some key pitchers we are at or even better record than last year. The problem is that underrated CLE even without the SPs they usually have & Francona, having stood pat in the offseason & very little at the deadline; but handily has the best record in MLB right now.. They have put their faith in their young players & not gone after FA veterans. Many say clutch hitting is an unsustainable stat. I say it's an ability. Overtaking CLE won't be easy.

IMO Lopez is back, Sims will learn from his last outing, Ober & Ryan can surprise us, the 5th spot can be pieced together spot-starter/ long relief Festa, Paddack, Varland, Dobber, Sands, Mathews or any 5th starter we can pick up. These options will go a long way to help keep the rotation healthy & rested. Duran & Stewart will find themselves & Thielbar will be serviceable.

Most of the injuries are not serious & should have a full-strength line-up intact soon. We need to keep winning our series, especially against CLE & keep chipping away. We are a better team & IMO we can win the division.

[Jeff K]

Nice article.  I especially agree, that if healthy, we are set at starting pitching for the hoped for playoffs.  That said, the Twins did need depth for starting pitching to ensure reaching the playoffs and I think that is why Varland needs to continue to start at AAA until the team is closer to the playoffs and we have a healthy staff.  After that, Varland should be permanently converted to relief pitching.  He's not going to have a career as a starter.  He could have one as a reliever.

[DJL44]

There isn't really a spot for Varland in the bullpen at the moment.

Topa is likely to come up at the end of his rehab assignment which will send Dobnak back to AAA. Sands has pitched well enough to keep a spot. Richards is the new guy. They aren't releasing Okert or Thielbar to add Varland. He will have to wait until rosters expand in September.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

The most important game of the year is the one today,  Just beat the White Sox today.  One game at a time. 

This is the key to making the playoffs. The Twins cannot afford to worry about winning this or that specific series. If they play well and hold their place they are in the playoffs. While an ALC division title is important, gaining the playoffs is the goal. Once part of the party, it's time to party.

 

[Riverbrian]

The head to head matchups with Cleveland and Kansas City will obviously be critical but if Cleveland run away with the AL Central crown the wild card spot is still in play for the Twins and that makes every game against every team critical. 

Starting pitching health is going to be the most important factor. Come playoff time... a manager can manage with a two or three starters. 

However, getting to the playoffs, making the playoffs is much harder with holes in the rotation. I expect injuries to come because it's pitching and injuries always come. The injuries to come will test our depth beyond Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Woods-Richardson, Paddack and Festa. What can Dobnak or Zebby or Varland do when they are called upon. They will be called upon. 

As far as the offense is concerned... as much as I complain about the strict platooning being done and as much as I question the necessity for Margot and Farmer types on the roster to maintain the platooning they are fully committed to. From a team results standpoint... I don't have a leg to stand on. That doesn't mean that I will stop complaining about our strict commitment to the platoon system we use but I do recognize that the Twins have gone from setting a strikeout record in 2023 to ranked 9th best in the K department.  

I also recognize that the Twins offense is:

Runs: 9th

BA: 9th

HR: 9th

OBP: 7th

SLG: 5th

OPS: 6th

That's pretty good

With concerns about starting pitching depth and regression... along with an offense that is clicking pretty good... I know this is going to sound odd but I'm going to stick with what I said this off-season. The Pitching isn't going to be as good as last year. Fedde of Flaherty isn't going to change that. We need more offense to cover for the pitching that won't be as good. The Rangers showed everybody last year that your offense can make up for pitching deficiency. Starting pitching is expensive to acquire. Zebby and Festa are going to be needed today and into the future. 

I like the current team offensive stats but I also recognize that in 2023 we ranked pretty good as well.

Runs: 10th

BA: 21st

HR: 3rd

OBP: 12

SLG: 7th

OPS: 7th

Pretty comparable to last year with a big improvement in K's and batting average at a little bit of expense to homers... just to end up with nearly identical OPS and runs scored.

IMO... the offense was still SHORT in the playoffs.

In the end... Starting pitching will determine if we make the playoffs... Hitting will determine if we win some games in the playoffs. 

One last thing... Bullpen. It's ok... but we really need a left handed arm. IMO... The most unsteady members of our bullpen are the left handers. As it stands today:

Orioles: 5 left handed hitters (Cowser, Henderson, O'Hearn, Mullins and Holliday) 

Yankees; 6 left handed hitters (Verdugo, Soto, Wells, Chisholm, Rice and Grisham)

Red Sox: 6 left handed hitters (Duran, Yoshida, Devers, Abreu, Smith and Hamilton) or switch hitters

Guardians: 4 Left handed hitters (Kwan, Gimenez and the Naylors) 

Royals: 5 left handed hitters (Pasquatch, Melendez, Massey, Isbel and Frazier) KC Left handers don't scare me that much. 

Astros: 2 left handed hitters (Alverez and Singleton) Tucker will be back just the combination of Tucker and Yordan requires someone who can get them out. 

Mariners: Not worth mentioning... They are terrible in the left handed batters box. Only Luke Raley can utter a little boo to scare anyone just a little.  

Bottom Line on the bullpen. We can't spend all of this time worrying about our left handed hitters and not worry about our left handed pitchers. If the splits are severe enough that we must pinch hit Wallner early so he doesn't have to face them in the 5th inning... Shouldn't we have some left handed arms of our own so we can attack the guys listed above come playoff time. 

 

 

[USAFChief]

"the Twins place in the AL Central standings has been static, despite playing good baseball over that stretch, and winning nine of their past ten series’."

 

Nitpic, but this isnt accurate. The Twins have won 7 of their last 10 series, losing series to SF, Milwaukee, and the Mets.

 

 

 

 

[Eric Blonigen]

14 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

"the Twins place in the AL Central standings has been static, despite playing good baseball over that stretch, and winning nine of their past ten series’."

 

Nitpic, but this isnt accurate. The Twins have won 7 of their last 10 series, losing series to SF, Milwaukee, and the Mets.

 

 

 

 

Good call. You are totally correct. 

[Riverbrian]

39 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

"the Twins place in the AL Central standings has been static, despite playing good baseball over that stretch, and winning nine of their past ten series’."

 

Nitpic, but this isnt accurate. The Twins have won 7 of their last 10 series, losing series to SF, Milwaukee, and the Mets.

 

 

 

 

I was talking to a friend this morning about the Twins. He was griping about the team like he usually does and I defended the Twins like I usually do. 

I read that line and told him that the Twins have won 9 of their last 10 series. 

Now I have to call him back and correct myself. Which he is going to cause him to think his griping is correct and worse yet. 

Next time I'm riding in a car with him... I'm going to tell him about the deer that is crossing the road and he isn't going to trust what I'm saying and he's going to strike the deer and I will end up with an antler lodged in my face. 😉

 

 

[USAFChief]

53 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I was talking to a friend this morning about the Twins. He was griping about the team like he usually does and I defended the Twins like I usually do. 

I read that line and told him that the Twins have won 9 of their last 10 series. 

Now I have to call him back and correct myself. Which he is going to cause him to think his griping is correct and worse yet. 

Next time I'm riding in a car with him... I'm going to tell him about the deer that is crossing the road and he isn't going to trust what I'm saying and he's going to strike the deer and I will end up with an antler lodged in my face. 😉

 

 

Strike the deer on the other end.

Or as my dad used to say (and work with me here, think "deer" when you read "horse")

....

The north end of a horse going south.

 

....no antler.

...

Come to think of it though, that end might not be so pleasant in your face either.

Never mind. 

 

[dxpavelka]

Didn't even read the article.  No point.  No significant deadline deal means this team is dead in the water.  I know this.  Because I have been told by multitudinous writers and fans on this website.  It's over boys and girls.  It's football season baby.;

[Craig Arko]

1) Win

2) Win again

3) Win another

4) Win some more

Life is good.

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I keep seeing "regression" used to indicate worse performance. In math the term just means that over a large sample a player's performance will tend to their long-term baseline. Christian Vazquez has "regressed" by hitting with a .910 OPS in July which brings his stats UP to his baseline expectation. If Woods Richardson is a good pitcher, then his statline is right at expectations and regression would just mean continued performance at this level.

3.74 ERA vs. 3.96 xERA, 4.33 SIERA, and 4.34 xFIP.

If Woods Richardson isn't unusually skilled at keeping fly balls in the park, he's due for a lot more regression. Since SWR's pop up rate isn't abnormally good, and he's a fly ball pitcher, it's unlikely he can avoid a regression in his home run rate which shifts him well out of a preferred playoff starter.

[bean5302]

The Twins need to stay healthy, and to stop laying eggs against Cleveland. I'm a lot more concerned about the Twins advancing in the playoffs than making them. I'll probably be furious if they get swept out yet again.

[RpR]

Postseason is still a long ways off, not worth being concerned about yet.

[stringer bell]

Not to be a Debby Downer, but I have major concerns about Stewart. I don't believe he can stay healthy for any real period of time. I expect Topa will make his Twins debut sometime soon which will mean someone will need to be sent down and someone will have to be taken off the 40-man roster. 

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Even with early injuries to key players & ineffectiveness of some key pitchers we are at or even better record than last year. The problem is that underrated CLE even without the SPs they usually have & Francona, having stood pat in the offseason & very little at the deadline; but handily has the best record in MLB right now.. They have put their faith in their young players & not gone after FA veterans. Many say clutch hitting is an unsustainable stat. I say it's an ability. Overtaking CLE won't be easy.

IMO Lopez is back, Sims will learn from his last outing, Ober & Ryan can surprise us, the 5th spot can be pieced together spot-starter/ long relief Festa, Paddack, Varland, Dobber, Sands, Mathews or any 5th starter we can pick up. These options will go a long way to help keep the rotation healthy & rested. Duran & Stewart will find themselves & Thielbar will be serviceable.

Most of the injuries are not serious & should have a full-strength line-up intact soon. We need to keep winning our series, especially against CLE & keep chipping away. We are a better team & IMO we can win the division.

Cleveland definitely seems to trust their farm more. That's likely payroll related, but it might just be a different philosophy. 

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I keep seeing "regression" used to indicate worse performance. In math the term just means that over a large sample a player's performance will tend to their long-term baseline. Christian Vazquez has "regressed" by hitting with a .910 OPS in July which brings his stats UP to his baseline expectation. If Woods Richardson is a good pitcher, then his statline is right at expectations and regression would just mean continued performance at this level.

Agreed on the terminology…….not answering for others here - my concern with SWR is strictly with stamina to continue his similar performance over past 18 starts. The guy had a 3.25 ERA until his last start in NY……..IMO, he’s where he should be with the stuff and mental make-up he’s shown to date …..around 3.75 ERA.

[JD-TWINS]

29 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Cleveland definitely seems to trust their farm more. That's likely payroll related, but it might just be a different philosophy. 

Martin - Lee - Camargo - Festa - SWR - Castillo

Wallner - Julien - Funderburk - Henriquez 

…..,assuming a couple I’ve missed over last

1 1/2 yrs……..

Kirilloff - Miranda - Larnach just prior

This seems to me to be a pretty large % of the 26-Man roster………..there are only so many spots available to “try guys” with 26 spots. I really do not see the reason for continually wanting other new players up “to get a chance”. Gotta win games once in The Show, not audition guys.

[Gamblerssoftball]

2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Didn't even read the article.  No point.  No significant deadline deal means this team is dead in the water.  I know this.  Because I have been told by multitudinous writers and fans on this website.  It's over boys and girls.  It's football season baby.;

We're getting close to the time of year when football is starting up and baseball takes a backseat. That just boils my blood! I like football, but I'll take baseball ten times over. It's a much better game. No clock,(except pitch clock, which I like), no subjective opinion type scoring, and it's a team game with lots of individual stats and goals to achieve. 

America's pastime, baby!

[Road trip]

49 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Martin - Lee - Camargo - Festa - SWR - Castillo

Wallner - Julien - Funderburk - Henriquez 

…..,assuming a couple I’ve missed over last

1 1/2 yrs……..

Kirilloff - Miranda - Larnach just prior

This seems to me to be a pretty large % of the 26-Man roster………..there are only so many spots available to “try guys” with 26 spots. I really do not see the reason for continually wanting other new players up “to get a chance”. Gotta win games once in The Show, not audition guys.

Cleveland's kids have played far more games than the 9 players you listed above for the Twins, most of whom have spent the majority of the year at AAA (frankly even listing Castillo, Camargo, and Henriquez is a bit suspect as all were emergency injury replacements who barely have 10 games between them). 

The kids haven't all be great for Cleveland either, but they don't have other options.  They decided back in spring to sink or swim with guys like Rochio and Bo Naylor.  Their hitters as a group have the youngest average age in MLB.  Their pitchers are also young.

[darin617]

6 hours ago, High heat said:

I think you’ll see Varland continue to start for 2 more weeks.  If mid August you either have Paddack back or SWR and Festa are still rolling he will transition to the bullpen ( for good hopefully) and be ready to join the bullpen for September when rosters expand.

You do know that the roster doesn't expand in September like it used to? The roster only gets expanded to 28. 

[JD-TWINS]

15 minutes ago, Road trip said:

Cleveland's kids have played far more games than the 9 players you listed above for the Twins, most of whom have spent the majority of the year at AAA (frankly even listing Castillo, Camargo, and Henriquez is a bit suspect as all were emergency injury replacements who barely have 10 games between them). 

The kids haven't all be great for Cleveland either, but they don't have other options.  They decided back in spring to sink or swim with guys like Rochio and Bo Naylor.  Their hitters as a group have the youngest average age in MLB.  Their pitchers are also young.

Bo Naylor had 200 AB’s last year and over .800 OPS………not exactly a big risk or not an obvious choice to start ‘24……….he’s responded by hitting .203 btw.

I didn’t say we used as many young guys as Cleveland nor did I say we were even comparable - they’re desperate….Twins are not.

I listed guys that have gotten a call to illustrate who has been up, for however long. My point is the roster’s only so big - I’m tired of hearing about how “other” young guys from the system should be getting a look. Who do they displace? There’s never a plan - just complaining that guys are hitting .289 in AAA and they should get a chance. If the Guardians didn’t exist, my opinion would be the same - the guys that are deserving of time at Target get it when they are needed.

[Road trip]

21 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Bo Naylor had 200 AB’s last year and over .800 OPS………not exactly a big risk or not an obvious choice to start ‘24……….he’s responded by hitting .203 btw.

I didn’t say we used as many young guys as Cleveland nor did I say we were even comparable - they’re desperate….Twins are not.

I listed guys that have gotten a call to illustrate who has been up, for however long. My point is the roster’s only so big - I’m tired of hearing about how “other” young guys from the system should be getting a look. Who do they displace? There’s never a plan - just complaining that guys are hitting .289 in AAA and they should get a chance. If the Guardians didn’t exist, my opinion would be the same - the guys that are deserving of time at Target get it when they are needed.

No, you responded to Mike who clearly was talking about Cleveland, and then went on your diatribe.

Peace, out...