Four Keys to the Twins Making the Playoffs

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

football

You mean soccer?

[IaBeanCounter]

Duran has been used more in none save situations, but I believe he has performed better than last year through July 31. 

2023 2-5, 17 saves 4 BS (1 hold for 2023, don't know if prior to 8/1)

2024 6-5, 15 saves 1 BS, 4 holds

I hope he can keep performing as this level.  JMHO

[Beast]

I think the days of “peak Duran“ are over.  They know that, hence the reports of him being shopped at the deadline.

What they need to make the playoffs is the offense to be one of the best in the game.  If there’s injuries, significant slumps, even meaningful regression for a few guys, it’s over.

Ive made my thoughts known to much ridicule.  The division is over.  We’re in 3rd and 7 back in August.  Let’s get real.

I don’t think the have the horses to hang in a WC spot.  Everything has to go perfectly in terms of health and there’s a lot of better teams on the schedule.  Also, getting a bit conspiratorial, the league does not want 3 AL Central flyover teams in the playoffs.  Good luck with the umps against Boston, Baltimore, etc.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Road trip said:

No, you responded to Mike who clearly was talking about Cleveland, and then went on your diatribe.

Peace, out...

Diatribe - seriously?

Mike certainly isn’t the only guy within the TD group that thinks more youngsters should be playing for the Twin’s big club. It’s stated 2-3 times weekly.

IMO he pointed to the Guardian’s success with young guys - wondering why they use so many and why/how they seem to be successful. They are spending $20M less than the Twins - gotta play somebody. …….I pointed out Naylor was pretty successful in ‘23 and not much of a risk going into ‘24. Like Eddie Julien, he’s had some flashes in ‘24, but bottom line is he’s hitting .203 at end of July. They aren’t all great successes.

[JD-TWINS]

7 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

The head to head matchups with Cleveland and Kansas City will obviously be critical but if Cleveland run away with the AL Central crown the wild card spot is still in play for the Twins and that makes every game against every team critical. 

Starting pitching health is going to be the most important factor. Come playoff time... a manager can manage with a two or three starters. 

However, getting to the playoffs, making the playoffs is much harder with holes in the rotation. I expect injuries to come because it's pitching and injuries always come. The injuries to come will test our depth beyond Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Woods-Richardson, Paddack and Festa. What can Dobnak or Zebby or Varland do when they are called upon. They will be called upon. 

As far as the offense is concerned... as much as I complain about the strict platooning being done and as much as I question the necessity for Margot and Farmer types on the roster to maintain the platooning they are fully committed to. From a team results standpoint... I don't have a leg to stand on. That doesn't mean that I will stop complaining about our strict commitment to the platoon system we use but I do recognize that the Twins have gone from setting a strikeout record in 2023 to ranked 9th best in the K department.  

I also recognize that the Twins offense is:

Runs: 9th

BA: 9th

HR: 9th

OBP: 7th

SLG: 5th

OPS: 6th

That's pretty good

With concerns about starting pitching depth and regression... along with an offense that is clicking pretty good... I know this is going to sound odd but I'm going to stick with what I said this off-season. The Pitching isn't going to be as good as last year. Fedde of Flaherty isn't going to change that. We need more offense to cover for the pitching that won't be as good. The Rangers showed everybody last year that your offense can make up for pitching deficiency. Starting pitching is expensive to acquire. Zebby and Festa are going to be needed today and into the future. 

I like the current team offensive stats but I also recognize that in 2023 we ranked pretty good as well.

Runs: 10th

BA: 21st

HR: 3rd

OBP: 12

SLG: 7th

OPS: 7th

Pretty comparable to last year with a big improvement in K's and batting average at a little bit of expense to homers... just to end up with nearly identical OPS and runs scored.

IMO... the offense was still SHORT in the playoffs.

In the end... Starting pitching will determine if we make the playoffs... Hitting will determine if we win some games in the playoffs. 

One last thing... Bullpen. It's ok... but we really need a left handed arm. IMO... The most unsteady members of our bullpen are the left handers. As it stands today:

Orioles: 5 left handed hitters (Cowser, Henderson, O'Hearn, Mullins and Holliday) 

Yankees; 6 left handed hitters (Verdugo, Soto, Wells, Chisholm, Rice and Grisham)

Red Sox: 6 left handed hitters (Duran, Yoshida, Devers, Abreu, Smith and Hamilton) or switch hitters

Guardians: 4 Left handed hitters (Kwan, Gimenez and the Naylors) 

Royals: 5 left handed hitters (Pasquatch, Melendez, Massey, Isbel and Frazier) KC Left handers don't scare me that much. 

Astros: 2 left handed hitters (Alverez and Singleton) Tucker will be back just the combination of Tucker and Yordan requires someone who can get them out. 

Mariners: Not worth mentioning... They are terrible in the left handed batters box. Only Luke Raley can utter a little boo to scare anyone just a little.  

Bottom Line on the bullpen. We can't spend all of this time worrying about our left handed hitters and not worry about our left handed pitchers. If the splits are severe enough that we must pinch hit Wallner early so he doesn't have to face them in the 5th inning... Shouldn't we have some left handed arms of our own so we can attack the guys listed above come playoff time. 

 

 

I get the sentiment on the Lefty Relievers ….bottom line is, in the Playoffs, the starter is going to face the guys like Alvarez & Tucker 3 times…….then in the 4th or 5th AB it would be great to have some advantage …….seems we just have to roll with good stuff from the right side and live with the results.

12 spot jump in BA

5 spot jump in OBP

These seem to point to more consistency leading to Runs Scored than what Team did last year with being #3 in HR & way more K’s.

Drop of 1 spot in Slug% & less K% helps keep everyone in the line-up viable. Once Correa is back and Lee is displaced from every day action, the Team has 10 guys playing regularly with OPS+ of over 100……….only Vazquez - Margot - Lee don’t meet that threshold.

[DJL44]

5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

3.74 ERA vs. 3.96 xERA, 4.33 SIERA, and 4.34 xFIP.

If Woods Richardson isn't unusually skilled at keeping fly balls in the park, he's due for a lot more regression. Since SWR's pop up rate isn't abnormally good, and he's a fly ball pitcher, it's unlikely he can avoid a regression in his home run rate which shifts him well out of a preferred playoff starter.

It's hard to figure out what you have with a young pitcher who is likely to improve further but he didn't give up a lot of HR in the minors (0.7 per 9 innings).

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

I get the sentiment on the Lefty Relievers ….bottom line is, in the Playoffs, the starter is going to face the guys like Alvarez & Tucker 3 times…….then in the 4th or 5th AB it would be great to have some advantage …….seems we just have to roll with good stuff from the right side and live with the results.

12 spot jump in BA

5 spot jump in OBP

These seem to point to more consistency leading to Runs Scored than what Team did last year with being #3 in HR & way more K’s.

Drop of 1 spot in Slug% & less K% helps keep everyone in the line-up viable. Once Correa is back and Lee is displaced from every day action, the Team has 10 guys playing regularly with OPS+ of over 100……….only Vazquez - Margot - Lee don’t meet that threshold.

I have no real complaint with the hitting... other than my complaints with the back end of the roster and I'd like to see the back end improved.

Last year I complained about the strikeouts. It was just too much and would have liked to seen a decent hitter that puts the ball in play more. I'm much happier with this offense even if the OPS is about the same. 

This year... I'd like to see Margot replaced with someone who could push the next tier down. We don't know who will be healthy come playoff time. I never look at 9 players and say we are set. If someone is replacable on the roster... I'm ok with replacing them. Keep culling from the bottom until the bottom is raised. 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

It's hard to figure out what you have with a young pitcher who is likely to improve further but he didn't give up a lot of HR in the minors (0.7 per 9 innings).

There are very few pitchers out there who can sustain ERAs/FIPs far below xFIPs. Across MLB over the past 4 seasons with 83 pitchers having 400 innings pitched there are ZERO with a more favorable split of xFIP to FIP than Woods Richardson this year.

1. SWR +0.58 (2024)
2. Kirby +0.43
3. Javier +0.37
4. Cortes +0.35
5. Cease +0.31
6. Sandoval +0.30
7. Manoah +0.30
8. Irvin +0.27

SWR cannot sustain his spread between FIP and xFIP. He can either generate fewer fly balls or he's going to give up more home runs. Things will balance themselves out substantially. Just a matter of time.

[Linus]

I agree about health but specifically the health of López Ober and Ryan. The lineup has already sustained injuries but kept on producing pretty well. If any of the three pitchers go down for an extended period, maybe even as short as a 15 day IL stint it’s going to knock them out IMO. 

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I have no real complaint with the hitting... other than my complaints with the back end of the roster and I'd like to see the back end improved.

Last year I complained about the strikeouts. It was just too much and would have liked to seen a decent hitter that puts the ball in play more. I'm much happier with this offense even if the OPS is about the same. 

This year... I'd like to see Margot replaced with someone who could push the next tier down. We don't know who will be healthy come playoff time. I never look at 9 players and say we are set. If someone is replacable on the roster... I'm ok with replacing them. Keep culling from the bottom until the bottom is raised. 

Get used to Margot - Lee - Vazquez …….the 3 guys under 100 OPS+ …….they aren’t going anywhere in 2024. Can only have so many high performing hitters on roster……they won’t be displaced by churning from the bottom.

Twins (with Correa) & Baltimore have 10 guys at 100 OPS+……only them.

Royals have 6 guys at or over 100 OPS+.

Yankees have 6 guys at 100 or over OPS+.

Mariners have 5 guys at 100 or over OPS+ …….Arrozerena & Turner are over too but they have only played 6 & 3 games and they’ll regress.

Red Sox have 8 guys at 100 or over OPS+.

[dxpavelka]

9 hours ago, Gamblerssoftball said:

We're getting close to the time of year when football is starting up and baseball takes a backseat. That just boils my blood! I like football, but I'll take baseball ten times over. It's a much better game. No clock,(except pitch clock, which I like), no subjective opinion type scoring, and it's a team game with lots of individual stats and goals to achieve. 

America's pastime, baby!

you may have missed the point of my post

[dxpavelka]

8 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

You mean soccer?

i believe you missed the point of my post

[Riverbrian]

6 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Get used to Margot - Lee - Vazquez …….the 3 guys under 100 OPS+ …….they aren’t going anywhere in 2024. Can only have so many high performing hitters on roster……they won’t be displaced by churning from the bottom.

Twins (with Correa) & Baltimore have 10 guys at 100 OPS+……only them.

Royals have 6 guys at or over 100 OPS+.

Yankees have 6 guys at 100 or over OPS+.

Mariners have 5 guys at 100 or over OPS+ …….Arrozerena & Turner are over too but they have only played 6 & 3 games and they’ll regress.

Red Sox have 8 guys at 100 or over OPS+.

I understand what you are saying when you say "can only have so many high performing players on your roster". History says that you are correct. 

I am saying that those limitations you mention are at least partially self imposed when you say "get used to Margot and Vazquez" and I will throw in Farmer. You don't like the odds of churn from the bottom... I don't either when I have to get used to struggling vets because they can't be replaced. So... how about churn from the trade deadline then.  

I'm not going to make any outlandish claims that I know that Keirsay Jr is ticketed for 100 Plus OPS Plus. But I will claim that Margot is 78 OPS+. He's the next man up when injury happens. I wouldn't lock that in because injuries happen. 

The Yankees can lock in on Torres and Verdugo... that's their choice. They can send down Ben Rice if Rizzo comes back... that's their self imposing decision.

 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

21 hours ago, DJL44 said:

There isn't really a spot for Varland in the bullpen at the moment.

Topa is likely to come up at the end of his rehab assignment which will send Dobnak back to AAA. Sands has pitched well enough to keep a spot. Richards is the new guy. They aren't releasing Okert or Thielbar to add Varland. He will have to wait until rosters expand in September.

There’s always room for a better reliever

[Craig Arko]

12 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

There’s always room for a better reliever

And for Jello.

[tony&rodney]

7 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

i believe you missed the point of my post

Actually, no.

[stringer bell]

BBRef puts the Twins as a 79.4% probability of making post season, quite a bit higher than Boston, Houston or Seattle and slightly ahead of the Royals. As the number of games remaining get smaller and smaller, it seems catching Cleveland gets to be a heavier lift.

A healthy Twins lineup with López, Ryan, Ober starting games and Alcalá, Jax and Durán finishing them is formidable, I think. It is hard to advance to the World Series by advancing through the extra round, but last year showed it can be done. 

[stringer bell]

Another thought--right now Kansas City has two players on the IL, two! Their names are Altavilla and Schreiber and I've never heard of either one. Cleveland also has only two, although both Bieber and local lad Sam Hentges are major league players. The Twins had a run of good health starting about the first of May, but they've had more players on the IL than the Guards and the Royals combined.

[DJL44]

4 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

There’s always room for a better reliever

Is Varland better than Sands?

[Eric Blonigen]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Is Varland better than Sands?

Personally, I think it’s almost a certainty that Varland is better than Thielbar, Okert, and Richards. Sands has been really good this year, but I think Varland would likely be slightly better. I would probably have him on a level with Alcala based on his performance last season out of the pen. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Is Varland better than Sands?

Over his 16 inning career as a reliever (12 innings last year and 4 innings this year) he sports a .73 WHIP, 2.20 ERA, 2.21 xFIP, and 32.80 k/bb. 
 

Jax leads the ‘24 team .89 WHIP, 2.05 ERA, 2.42 xFIP, 27.4 k/bb. Sands and Duran are both on Jax’s heels.

i don’t expect Varland’s 16 innings to project forward, but it would be nice to find out if it does. He’s absolutely better than Okert and Thielbar.

[DJL44]

57 minutes ago, Eric Blonigen said:

Personally, I think it’s almost a certainty that Varland is better than Thielbar, Okert, and Richards.

All 3 are out of options. Thielbar and Okert are there to matchup with lefthanded batters and they're probably better than Varland at that. They didn't trade for Richards to cut him a week later. I suppose they could option Topa and put Varland in the bullpen.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

14 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

All 3 are out of options. Thielbar and Okert are there to matchup with lefthanded batters and they're probably better than Varland at that. They didn't trade for Richards to cut him a week later. I suppose they could option Topa and put Varland in the bullpen.

Their performance has matching up against lefties baked in, as does Varland’s.
 

LOOGies don’t exist anymore, relievers have to pitch to 3 batters minimum.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Their performance has matching up against lefties baked in, as does Varland’s.

Varland has pitched in 8 games of relief, which is not nearly large enough sample size to draw any conclusions.

[bean5302]

On 8/3/2024 at 10:04 PM, JD-TWINS said:

Get used to Margot - Lee - Vazquez …….the 3 guys under 100 OPS+ …….they aren’t going anywhere in 2024. Can only have so many high performing hitters on roster……they won’t be displaced by churning from the bottom.

Twins (with Correa) & Baltimore have 10 guys at 100 OPS+……only them.

Royals have 6 guys at or over 100 OPS+.

Yankees have 6 guys at 100 or over OPS+.

Mariners have 5 guys at 100 or over OPS+ …….Arrozerena & Turner are over too but they have only played 6 & 3 games and they’ll regress.

Red Sox have 8 guys at 100 or over OPS+.

Margot and Vazquez are sunk costs without options. Brooks Lee is getting absolutely owned by any/all types of fastballs. Cutters, 4 seamers, sinkers. They're just eating him up right now. I don't think Lee has a terribly long leash at this point. Once Correa is back, probably in a couple weeks, I'd be surprised if Lee remains up unless he turns things around.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

On 8/3/2024 at 12:52 PM, bean5302 said:

The Twins need to stay healthy, and to stop laying eggs against Cleveland. I'm a lot more concerned about the Twins advancing in the playoffs than making them. I'll probably be furious if they get swept out yet again.

LOL  you tend to be furious about a lot of things.  We have the batters to compete.  Pitching,  you have the potential to have 3 strong SP going into the playoffs and a pretty deep pen.  To me it looks like you have enough.  Ryan is the one I get concerned how he would do in the bright lights.  As long as we don't go into a tail spin to end the season it looks like a pretty successful season.  We also have the 3rd highest percentage to get to the WS out of the AL teams.   

[bean5302]

18 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

LOL  you tend to be furious about a lot of things.  We have the batters to compete.  Pitching,  you have the potential to have 3 strong SP going into the playoffs and a pretty deep pen.  To me it looks like you have enough.  Ryan is the one I get concerned how he would do in the bright lights.  As long as we don't go into a tail spin to end the season it looks like a pretty successful season.  We also have the 3rd highest percentage to get to the WS out of the AL teams.   

You have an interesting perception of me.

I spent a lot of money on Twins tickets this year after renewing and upgrading my seasons last year. The commitment ownership put forth was not on par with my investment or what I expected. Do you get frustrated when you get ripped off?

[RpR]

Twins keep winning, Twins are in the Postseason.

Rank in the Postseason depends on how they handle Cleveland.

[Major League Ready]

On 8/3/2024 at 4:54 PM, JD-TWINS said:

Diatribe - seriously?

Mike certainly isn’t the only guy within the TD group that thinks more youngsters should be playing for the Twin’s big club. It’s stated 2-3 times weekly.

IMO he pointed to the Guardian’s success with young guys - wondering why they use so many and why/how they seem to be successful. They are spending $20M less than the Twins - gotta play somebody. …….I pointed out Naylor was pretty successful in ‘23 and not much of a risk going into ‘24. Like Eddie Julien, he’s had some flashes in ‘24, but bottom line is he’s hitting .203 at end of July. They aren’t all great successes.

How they have been successful relying on their farm system is pretty simple.  They do a good job of trading established players for prospects much like the Rays.  If you look at their best teams (most wins), those teams produced more WAR from players acquired as prospects than they did from the draft.   (25.5% vs 44.5%)

7	Cleveland Guardians	WINS	Drafted	Intl	AaP	Trade	FA
100%	Cleveland 2017	102	24.3%	19.3%	44.3%	4.3%	7.8%
100%	Cleveland 2007	96	30.5%	38.2%	31.3%	0.0%	0.0%
100%	Cleveland 2016	94	33.1%	22.7%	44.2%	0.0%	0.0%
100%	Cleveland 2019	93	34.0%	17.8%	44.1%	4.0%	0.0%
100%	Cleveland 2005	93	7.5%	21.8%	51.4%	2.5%	16.8%
100%	Cleveland 2022	92	34.2%	19.7%	46.2%	0.0%	0.0%
100%	Cleveland 2013	92	14.9%	0.0%	50.1%	10.2%	24.8%
	Guardians Total	94.57	25.5%	19.9%	44.5%	3.0%	7.1%

 

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

How they have been successful relying on their farm system is pretty simple.  They do a good job of trading established players for prospects much like the Rays.  If you look at their best teams (most wins), those teams produced more WAR from players acquired as prospects than they did from the draft.   (25.5% vs 44.5%)

7	Cleveland Guardians	WINS	Drafted	Intl	AaP	Trade	FA
100%	Cleveland 2017	102	24.3%	19.3%	44.3%	4.3%	7.8%
100%	Cleveland 2007	96	30.5%	38.2%	31.3%	0.0%	0.0%
100%	Cleveland 2016	94	33.1%	22.7%	44.2%	0.0%	0.0%
100%	Cleveland 2019	93	34.0%	17.8%	44.1%	4.0%	0.0%
100%	Cleveland 2005	93	7.5%	21.8%	51.4%	2.5%	16.8%
100%	Cleveland 2022	92	34.2%	19.7%	46.2%	0.0%	0.0%
100%	Cleveland 2013	92	14.9%	0.0%	50.1%	10.2%	24.8%
	Guardians Total	94.57	25.5%	19.9%	44.5%	3.0%	7.1%

 

I don’t care about the Guardians success or lack of success with their young players. I respect their organization - that’s it. All of my comments have been about the fact that the Twins aren’t running as many young guys through the SHOW because they have good veteran players and they can’t displace that talent nor number of bodies because there are only 26 roster spots. Have been trying to refute the idea that the Twins should be bringing up guys in the same fashion or at the same rate as the Guardians. Can’t experiment with guys in Minneapolis if there are already guys there doing the job…….doesn’t make sense………roster math doesn’t work.