Was Carlos Correa the Right Big Ticket Shortstop to Pay?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins are currently in the midst of a solid season, and they are now halfway through the second year of Carlos Correa’s long-term deal. He was paid around the same time as a few other stars at the position. Was he the right choice?

Image courtesy of Kyle Ross-USA Today (Turner), Nick Wosika-USA Today (Seager), Brad Rempel - USA Today (Correa),, Gregory Fisher - USA Today (Baez), Melissa Tamez-USA Today (Swanson)

Of course not all superstar shortstops would have been a fit for the Minnesota Twins. Carlos Correa was the most logical candidate given he played what was ultimately a one-year deal during the 2022 season. That said, he still explored deals with the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets.

Just past the midway point of the 2024 season, Correa leads Minnesota in fWAR at 2.9, and would be more than worthy of All-Star consideration. Where does that rank amongst those that signed similar long-term deals though?

Corey Seager - 10 years, $325 million (2022-31)
Nothing matters when you win a World Series, right? Seager, paired with Marcus Semien, helped the Texas Rangers win it all during just the second season of his deal. He was an All-Star in year one, and repeated that feat last year. Though he did miss time and played in just 119 games during 2023, he posted a career-best 174 OPS+ and finished second in the American League MVP voting. He’s having a more pedestrian season by his standards in 2024, but has still been worth 1.8 fWAR. Two and a half years into his deal, Seager has already been worth $97.1 million. While he’ll age and eventually move off shortstop, this deal was a win for both parties.

Dansby Swanson - 7 years, $177 million (2023-29)
Swanson is the same age as Seager, playing 2024 at 30 years old. He was exactly league average offensively with the Cubs last year, and he has posted just an 85 OPS+ in 2024. The Cubs are among baseball’s biggest disappointments this season, and Swanson is part of that problem. He is currently rocking an on-base percentage below .300 for the first time in his career, and the production across the board leaves plenty to be desired. Swanson hasn’t shown the same defensive acumen this year either, and that saps a significant amount of his value. Generating just $47.8 million of value thus far, he’ll need to rebound with more years like 2023 as he ages. That seems unlikely.

Trea Turner - 11 years, $300 million (2023-33)
After being named to his second all-star team in 2022, and finishing just outside the top ten for National League MVP honors, the Phillies hoped they were getting a superstar. Despite Philadelphia’s success in 2023, it wasn’t largely reflective of Turner’s presence. His 109 OPS+ wasn’t anything to write home about, and while he launched 26 homers, other production dipped. He has picked things back up in a big way during the 2024 season, and his 137 OPS+ is well above his career average. Turner has missed a good chunk of time though, playing in just 45 games, and he has only three dingers on the year. Having provided $48.7 million of value thus far, Turner will need to age well (and is already 31 years old) if he is going to make good on his deal.

Trevor Story - 6 years, $140 million (2022-27)
Signed during the same offseason that Minnesota agreed to terms with Correa for the first time, Story too was a late acquisition by the Boston Red Sox. Leaving Colorado always is met with skepticism on the open market, and how the hitting production translates out of the elevation is something that is often dissected. Playing second base in his first season with Boston, since Xander Bogaerts was entrenched at shortstop, he posted just a 102 OPS+ and played in only 94 games. 2023 resulted in an even worse 43 games with a 52 OPS+, and his 2024 season ended after just eight games. Having been worth just $22.7 million through three years, the deal couldn’t possibly look worse. Both injury and ineffectiveness have been the narratives.

Javier Baez - 6 years, $140 million (2022-27)
Earning the same exact deal as Story, Baez has found a way to play more and be worth less. The Detroit Tigers felt like they were trending upwards, and providing manager A.J. Hinch with a star in the form of Baez made a decent amount of sense. Following his 117 OPS+ split between the Mets and Cubs in 2021, Baez was going to command a premium on the open market. Unfortunately his 91 OPS+ in 2022 has been the high-water mark for his tenure with the Tigers. Baez is currently one of the worst hitters in baseball, and despite a 29 OPS+ in 2024, his 53 games played is still indicative of earning regular playing time. He has generated just $12.3 million of value, and that number will continue to go down the more he costs his team.

Signing long-term deals in free agency is always going to be a cautionary tale. Players hit the open market either into or after their prime. Correa was scrutinized for an ankle injury that has yet to be a problem, but production will always lag as age creeps upwards. So far, Correa has been something that each the Mets and Giants wish they had. He hasn’t brought a World Series to Minnesota, yet, but he is the youngest of this group at just 29 years old. His contract should be viewed as better than everyone-not-named Seager to this point, and that’s a great reality for the Twins.

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[CRF]

I think you can throw Baez, Story, and Swanson out of the equation immediately. Turner and Seager are the cream of this crop, but I don't think the Twins would pay for those two. CC is damn good and I think we're extremely fortunate to end up with him. I'd hate to think where we'd be without him. He's as valuable off the field as he is on. 

[Doctor Wu]

10 minutes ago, CRF said:

I think you can throw Baez, Story, and Swanson out of the equation immediately. Turner and Seager are the cream of this crop, but I don't think the Twins would pay for those two. CC is damn good and I think we're extremely fortunate to end up with him. I'd hate to think where we'd be without him. He's as valuable off the field as he is on. 

I agree, I think we got the right one. And yes, we are lucky to have ended up getting Correa the second time around, almost by default. I good player to have on the team, especially when he is playing as well as he has been lately. I wasn't a big fan of him in Houston, but now I like him a lot!

[nclahammer]

So glad to have C4 in the red, white, & blue of the Minnesota Twins.   We choose wisely.

[Beast]

The signing looks great right now.  They lucked out big time getting him at a discount.

He led the Twins to a “playoff series” win (3 gamer).  He’s playing the best baseball of his career right now.  He’s the clear clubhouse leader.

I said it in the Buxton thread also.  It’s the best the Twins can do.  If anyone is expecting more than what he’s providing on his contract, they need to realign their expectations.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Is the sky blue...

[Brandon]

After going a generation since we had Gagne as our last competent SS.  It’s nice to have an all star caliber player for the foreseeable future there.  I think Correa was the best because he will age out of his contract so much better than the others.  

[hitterscount]

Don't think you could ask for a better left side of the infield of Correa and Lewis. Correa is a gamer. Now let's get Lee up to anchor 2nd. 

[stringer bell]

It looks good now. Correa isn't thirty yet and he's having a terrific 2024 campaign. The contract he signed was shorter, thus containing less decline years. It would have been nice to add a shortstop with good to elite speed, which is something Correa is not, even when healthy. 

[Whitey333]

Correa has been good for the Twins.  Is he worth 35 million per year?  In my view no.  Not at this point.  But after much early consternation I admit he's been very steady.  Well, his salary and with the ownership tightening up payroll may make it difficult to add to the team.  But his salary is very palatable when you consider the NBA is now paying it's top players in the 50-65 million per year while only playing half the number of games as major league baseball.  I bet the next negotiating session between owners and players in MLB will be very difficult.

[Trov]

I wrote a forum on this exact thing the other week.  Glad Ted took it and ran with it. I think CC was the right one for us.  We were not going to get Seager and Turner contract was too long. Why did you not include Xander Bogaerts, he signed as a SS for Padres in 2023 on an 11 year deal.  It has not worked out well this year so far, last year was ehh. 

[Karbo]

The Twins made a wise decision signing him. The natural charisma he exudes is good for the clubhouse in addition to playing some of the best defense at SS in the game. He was hurt last year and gutted his way thru it. Now he's healthy and hitting better than he ever has. Twins get an A+ on his signing!

[tarheeltwinsfan]

A wise signing by the Twins. C4 throws a baseball like no other SS I know of. Strong and accurate. His baseball knowledge is outstanding. His offense and defense have been wonderful this year. 

[LambchoP]

He's the leader of our team. We got a good deal on the contract because of the giants and Mets opting out. Plus, we're not stuck with him for like ten eleven years. Six years with four team options, so if he declined horribly we can just opt out. A lot less risk. And msn he's fun to watch when he's playing like this:)

[wabene]

Like the Buxton contract this is a creative deal by the front office. Yes it is only 6 years, but if he keeps playing it can be up to 10 years with the added bonus of rapidly declining salaries in the last 4 years. Great deal for the Twins.

[strumdatjag]

We had to watch a less than stellar 2023, because of C4 foot pain.  This year, he is playing at an all-star level.       I like Corey Seager too.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Correa has been a very good pickup for the Twins. I think he offers the best combination of offensive production, defensive prowess, and leadership for our team. He’s certainly expensive (I believe Dior was the store, yes?), but I really think that the “fit” is there. A year ago, I was very worried that he might be in trouble physically and the contract would be an albatross, but this year has enabled me to chalk that up to his injury issues and trying to play through them.  The added good news is that he is only guaranteed six years and not ten or more like the other shortstops on this list, but if he keeps performing, we can continue to tack on years by exercising the team options at the end. There were lots of rumors that we were in the running for Trevor Story — sure glad that didn’t work out!

[jmlease1]

It's working out well and was worth the risk. Even with the down year last season as Correa battle through plantar fasciitis, he's very likely to finish his 3rd year with the Twins having put up a ton of value for us. And while I know the idea of 1 WAR = $9M in value is just shorthand, I do think it's important to realize that it's a lot easier to find a player with 1 or 2 bWAR than it is to get one who puts up 5 or 6 bWAR, so the value really shouldn't be treated as linear.

We dodged a bullet on Story, who I admittedly wanted and thought might be a viable option for the Twins, since I didn't think Correa was ever coming here.

we're paying Correa big money, but we're paying it in the years where he's the most likely to produce at these kinds of levels. I love the fact that the contract declines in the out years and if it vests the team should be pretty thrilled to pay the next season. It's a fantastic structure to keep a team leader on for a long time without punishing the budget with our self-imposed payroll limits. And Correa's skill set should age fairly well, since he's not reliant on speed to begin with and a move to 3B in a few years still takes advantage of his superior arm and smart positioning.

I think they bet on the right guy.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

His play on the field has certainly been worth the contract in 2/3 seasons so far. But like others have mentioned, his leadership of the clubhouse has been a huge boon that would be hard to quantify. He's a great 2-way player at the most glamorized position in baseball, and the fact that he's bilingual has to help. Any of the young players can come to him for anything, and he's been more than willing to share his wealth of experience.

I have to imagine he's a not insignificant piece of the puzzle for the success that the young Twins players have had the last 3 years. A great leader makes everyone around them better. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

For an article that is using a lot of metrics and contract comparisons to not include the same information on Correa is a real miss. 

The contract itself is the big key.  If Correa is bad, they can opt out comparatively early.  If he continues to be good, he stays.

The clubhouse effect and leadership qualities can't be understated.

[Doctor Gast]

Correa was never in the Twins' sights. They liked Story's bat & he was playing other teams, & it looked like BOS was about to sign Story. When it looked like the Twins struck out again, Correa dropped from the sky & Boras placed him in the Twins' lap.  IMO because of the steep & long contract he was asking for & many teams were leery about his "garbage can scandal" so he couldn't sign with other teams, the Twins overlooked this. Maybe because they were desperate.

IMO Minnesota wasn't on Correa's target list either but when they came together it was a perfect match. The other SSs IMO never really considered MN (MN had a terrible '21 record, plus big FAs usually don't want to come here) as a possibility w/o an over-pay. Not only did the Twins get lucky in '22 but also in '23 when Correa's offseason was even messier.

Not only does Correa like it here, he adds leadership, mentorship, a feel for the game, valuable postseason experience, and club-house presence to go along with his on-field abilities. He's a key to the success of the Twins. So yes the Twins came out on top by coming up with Correa instead of the others.

[jkcarew]

It’s a legit miracle we got Correa. Now we gonna ponder whether we could’ve been blesses with a better miracle?

[NotAboutWinning]

Yes, Correa and the Twins are a great match. I'll admit I wasn't on board at the beginning. I knew he would be a superstar level athlete, but was hesitant about his character. The trashcan thing, the Dior comment etc. I could not have been more wrong! His leadership and commitment to the team have impressed. He literally played on one foot last season! You can see he genuinely cares about his teammates and their growth and success. And it is a blast to watch him play the game!!

[bean5302]

I feel like this article was just written a couple weeks ago?

This time, we've conveniently left Marcus Semien out of this article. He was a shortstop, but he was asked to slide over to 2B where his defensive numbers say he'd still be a solid shortstop. He has been the best contract handed out.

Truth is, Correa wasn't on the radar in 2022, like at all. Boras called Falvey and offered him the deal after everybody else had already signed. Falvey got approval from the Pohlad's and tada! 3 years $105MM with what everybody expected was a 1 year $35MM deal as Correa was going to opt out barring catastrophe.

Last year is a different story. Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, Xander Boegaerts, Carlos Correa were the big 4. The Twins offered 10yrs $285MM out of the gate so they were certainly in play. MLBTR predicted 9yrs $288MM for Correa in November. Ultimately, everybody knows how things played out. Of the shortstops available last year, Correa's final contract with the Twins is looking by far the best, IMHO.

[thelanges5]

C4 💥

[bean5302]

I think we can all agree, though, thank whatever deity, good fortune star, etc. we didn't get Baez.

[Eric Blonigen]

Yes. As others have mentioned, half the SS that got long-term deals have been a bust so far. Correa is one of the few that has played well. He’s leading the team in WAR and WPA, not to mention his clubhouse leadership. He has been a great signing so far, and I would expect he continues to play well for at least the next three or four seasons. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

 

The clubhouse effect and leadership qualities can't be understated.

I would say that the clubhouse effect and leadership qualities can't be overstated.  To me, "can't be overstated" means they are very important. 

[mikelink45]

Did I miss something?  There were others willing to sign with us?  We were close in dollars for others?  We signed the guy who was willing to sign with us.   And I am glad he did. 

[JD-TWINS]

Seems to have been the right guy to me….,,anybody can have a down year due to injury.

He’s on the shortest deal and all years should be in productive career years for him - through age 33-34.

Nice bench/clubhouse leadership…..solid production offensively and with glove/arm ….,very motivated to WIN - very outwArd showing it’s important!!! ….not sure how much of that the other teams got?