Make it Official! Twins 7, Brewers 3: Kirilloff, Jeffers Provide Comeback Clout

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins finished their season-opening road trip on a high note. Brewers pitchers stymied the offense early, but Alex Kirilloff and Ryan Jeffers came through late, and the bullpen secured the lead.

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone - USA Today Sports

Box Score
SP: Chris Paddack 4.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K (82 pitches, 47 strikes, 6 whiffs - 7.3%)
Home Runs: Ryan Jeffers (1)
Top 3 WPA: Ryan Jeffers .347, Alex Kirilloff .213, Carlos Correa .189

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Paddack Returns to the Bump
It had been nearly 700 days since Chris Paddack made a start in a major-league game. The Sheriff toed the rubber at American Family Field and struck out Jackson Chourio on three pitches, as if he'd never missed an outing. After flashing a 94.6-mph fastball, he rung up the talented rookie on a changeup that dove out of the strike zone.

William Contreras offered a free out to Paddack with a nubber back to the mound, but Minnesota’s starter couldn’t pick up the ball and gave up what was (spuriously) ruled a single. Christian Yelich, who has started the year on a tear, then lined a middle-middle pitch to center field, and the Brewers were in business. With Willy Adames stepping in, the Minnesota starter overcooked a curveball that got past catcher Ryan Jeffers, letting the runners reach second and third. After having Adames down 0-2, Paddack walked him, and loaded the bases for Rhys Hoskins.

Paddack pushed the velocity to 96.1 mph against Hoskins, and a hard grounder to Kyle Farmer at third base turned into a much-needed inning-ending double play. The Twins offense needed to get going, but the starter was now able to settle in.

Joe Ross Back in the Bigs
Having not pitched in the majors since 2021 himself, and throwing just 17 professional innings the past two seasons, Milwaukee Brewers starter Joe Ross seemed like a good candidate for the struggling Twins offense to get right. Batters forced him to go deep in counts and racked up 54 pitches in his first three innings of work. They struck out only twice while drawing three walks, but no one was able to capitalize on the opportunities they created.

Brice Turang got himself a ball to lift into left field in the second, scoring Sal Frelick, but Paddack may have been able to escape damage if Jeffers could have hung on to a popped-up foul bunt just before that. Ross was provided with the slightest breathing room early, and a lackluster Twins lineup limped out of the gate again.

Coming out for a fourth inning of work, though, Ross continued to struggle. He twirled in only 38 strikes across 73 total pitches, and walked five batters on the day. With the sacks packed and Edouard Julien at the dish, Pat Murphy went to lefty Hoby Milner in relief of Ross, and Milwaukee was into their bullpen before the Minnesota offense could show up to the party.

Margot Makes it Even…Or Not
With Julien ready to step in against Milner, Rocco Baldelli opted for the platoon advantage in the form of Manuel Margot. Despite the bases being loaded and there being two outs in the inning, the speedy Margot dropped down a bunt. It wasn’t a good one, popped up toward third baseman Joey Ortiz. With a shortstop background, he made a wonderful play to grab Margot after a review at first.

The desperation signaled by that bunt reeked of a lineup that can’t get things going. The Twins allowed Ross to escape an otherwise ugly day with nothing to show for his time on the mound.

Because the baseball gods have a cruel sense of humor, Hoskins immediately launched a solo shot off of Paddack to start the bottom of the 4th inning. Minnesota trailed 2-0.

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Santana Stops the Drought
Playing against his former team, Carlos Santana stepped in against J.B. Bukauskas in the top of the following frame. The bases were loaded, and the recently-promoted Brewers reliever got behind to the tune of a 3-0 count. Santana took what was a borderline strike one call, and fouled off a second strike. He then grounded a ball to second, and Turang wasn’t able to turn what would have been a tough double play. Alex Kirilloff, who had reached for the third time already, scored from third.

Looking to even the score, Willi Castro was up, and the Twins had runners on the corners. After a ball and strike apiece, the utility man lined a ball to right field but the rookie Chourio was there to make the play.

Through the first five innings of the game, Minnesota found themselves 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position, and nine players had been left on base. With so much traffic, Baldelli certainly would have appreciated his lineup putting a crooked number in the run column. Daniel Duarte took over for Paddack in the bottom half.

Jackson Chourio Blasts Off
There has been no more anticipated debut in Brewers Land than that of Jackson Chourio. The 20-year-old is a favorite to win the National League Rookie of the Year award, and despite his sizzling start, he had yet to leave the yard. On the third pitch from Duarte, the Venezuelan got a hanging slider and deposited the pitch over the center field wall.

While Minnesota failed to capitalize on their good fortune from the top half of the inning, they watched the run they got back be immediately erased. It was an ugly miss from Duarte, but he responded by getting both Yelich and Adames to ground out and escape further damage. Duarte continues to be a reliever worth watching for the Minnesota bullpen.

Kirilloff Crushes and Jeffers Blasts
Starting the 7th inning with a double, Kirilloff continued his hot day, as he lifted a fly ball to the right-field corner. Chourio wasn’t able to track it down, and it ultimately hopped over the wall to put him on second base against reliever Joel Payamps.

Minnesota had Byron Buxton working as the designated hitter today. He stepped in and crushed a ball to left field that allowed Kirilloff to scamper home. After a game full of futile at-bats, it appeared that the Twins lineup finally had life. Correa confirmed as much with a hit of his own, a single to left, and Buxton raced home from second base (despite an ill-advised near-stop from Tommy Watkins, which would have been a glaring failure to take advantage of Yelich's weak outfield arm). After Santana lofted a single to center, manager Pat Murphy decided he had seen enough from his workhorse setup man.

Bryse Wilson came on to face Castro and Jeffers. The Twins sought to take their first lead of the game, and Jeffers finally got off the schneid with his first hit of the season. After a solid spring training, he had come into the game hitless over the first four contests. Although the ball barely made it over the left-field wall, his three-run dinger gave the Twins a 6-3 lead and set them up for a series split. The home run was just Minnesota’s second of the season, with the other coming from Royce Lewis on Opening Day.

Carlos Correa Catches It
With Brock Stewart taking over in relief, Baldelli was into the leverage arms of his bullpen. Looking to keep their three-run lead comfortable, Minnesota had one of their best available pen arms on the bump. After a strikeout of Oliver Dunn, and then a 12-pitch punch out of Turang, it was a highlight-reel play to end the inning.

Correa channeled his inner Willie Mays for an over-the-shoulder catch that looked so smooth. He then pulled off a Michael Jordan-esque shrug to top it off. The Twins shortstop is special.

In the top half of the eighth inning, Kirilloff continued his terrific day with a gapper that allowed him to race around to third base. It was just his third career triple, and with Austin Martin taking over as a pinch runner, put Minnesota in position to score once again. Unfortunately, Wilson got both Buxton and Max Kepler on strikes to strand the potential run 90 feet away.

Bullpen Musical Chairs
Just before the regular season started, the Twins found themselves with a bunch of late pitching injuries. Jhoan Durán, Caleb Thielbar, Justin Topa, and Josh Staumont were all going to begin the year on the injured list. That meant a bunch of unexpected names were going to be expected to step up, and Baldelli would have to get creative with the group.

Stewart didn’t go two innings today, and he shouldn’t ever be expected to do so, given his injury history. Griffin Jax took over in the 8th inning, and rather than riding him for six outs, Minnesota’s manager decided to put Steven Okert in for the 9th. That decision appeared to be made before Jeffers drove in Correa and took away the save situation, and it’s reflective of a manager putting his best arms in spots where he needs them most.

Having been acquired from the Miami Marlins in exchange for Nick Gordon, Okert has shown well in his first two outings for Minnesota. He certainly is excited to be in a new place, with his former franchise falling to 0-7 on the season this afternoon. Command wasn’t his friend early in the outing today, but he battled back against Andruw Monasterio for a strikeout. He punched out former Twins backstop Gary Sanchez on a dotted 3-2 pitch, and then got Dunn for another strikeout to end the contest.

What’s Next? 
Minnesota heads to Target Field for the first time in 2024. Kicking off the home schedule, Pablo López starts against Tanner Bibee on Thursday. Cleveland hasn’t updated their probables, but the Twins will throw Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober over the weekend, as the weather turns downright balmy (by the standards of early April in Minnesota).

Postgame Interviews

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

 

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[Riverbrian]

Yesterday your recap was titled "Rally Runs Short". 

Today you could have titled it "Rally Runs Long". 

[Dman]

That was a great recap.  Thanks!

I was down on Kirilloff this offseason, but am happy to see him off to a hot start.  Really nice to see Correa taking those walks and not swinging so much outside the zone.  The slugging is a bit low right now, but once team realize they can't get him to chase as much there will be good pitches to hit

Buxton has been solid.  Just hoping he stays healthy.

Nice to see the win and hopefully the offense can keep things going against Cleveland.

[DJL44]

I do not get putting in a pinch hitter to have them bunt with the bases loaded and two outs. Can't defend that move. If you want to do something dumb like that you can do it with Julien.

[UK Twin]

Nice win. And first road trip is a winning one. AK looks so good at the plate and another very solid outing from the pen. Very happy to see Buxton contributing as a DH as well. He's clearly in a good place right now. 

I have to admit I spent most of the game banging my head against the wall until the 7th inning. Great time for a 5 run inning and a huge swing by Jeffers. 

[UK Twin]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I do not get putting in a pinch hitter to have them bunt with the bases loaded and two outs. Can't defend that move. If you want to do something dumb like that you can do it with Julien.

TBF it's not as if the hitters were producing at that stage and it took a perfect play to get Margot (and barely at that).

[Karbo]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I do not get putting in a pinch hitter to have them bunt with the bases loaded and two outs. Can't defend that move. If you want to do something dumb like that you can do it with Julien.

He didn't put him in to bunt, Margot was on his own,

[Peter]

I’ll take a 3-2 road trip to start season. Late rally to get win as it looked to be here we go again. Huge win! Let’s hope this get bat’s awaken and in right direction-on to the home opener and hope to keep winning going-let’s go Twins!!!

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I do not get putting in a pinch hitter to have them bunt with the bases loaded and two outs. Can't defend that move. If you want to do something dumb like that you can do it with Julien.

I didn't like the pinch hit move at all, but I'd guess Margot bunted on his own. But the fact that you're putting in a guy who feels like he needs to bunt with 2 outs and the bases loaded says enough about the decision to use him as a pinch hitter. In the 4th inning no less. A guy who feels their best chance there is to lay one down is not a guy I want in my lineup for the rest of the game. Or ever, really.

[joefish]

Great swings by Kirilloff.

 

[bean5302]

Does a platoon split even matter when bunting? Baldelli really seems to be infatuated with Margot. After declaring Kirilloff a lost cause for being an outfielder, it's nice to see the Twins put him out there where I think he'd be best utilized and add the most value to the team. Heck of a day for him, too!

[D.C Twins]

If Buxton and Correa stay healthy and play this way all year (big if I know).... I like the Twins chances.....

Until I start thinking about our SP depth... and then I become skeptical again....until I think about a healthy Buck and Correa... and then.....

[USAFChief]

24 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Does a platoon split even matter when bunting? Baldelli really seems to be infatuated with Margot. After declaring Kirilloff a lost cause for being an outfielder, it's nice to see the Twins put him out there where I think he'd be best utilized and add the most value to the team. Heck of a day for him, too!

I strongly doubt Rocco called for that bunt. Pretty sure that was all Margot.

 

[Jocko87]

Like what I'm seeing from AK, stay healthy young man. 

Pitching feels, nibblish? That's a full season observation but I saw it again today.  Paddack velo dropped off steadily, wondering if that was expected or concerning.

Hate the pinch hit, mainly that it was the 4th inning.  I do understand the limited opportunities to break open a game but it wasn't exactly Nelly Cruz for Ben Revere, as an obscene example.  In the 4th inning, even with platoon advantage Margot is at best a very slight upgrade over Julien and game theory would tell me there is a long way to go.  As mentioned, a guy who feels like a bunt is the way to go makes it even worse.  The odds of Julien working a walk have to be similar to a successful bunt.

Then, say the bunt is successful? Has Rocco committed to hitting for AK with Martin? Just let the game breathe a bit. I'm well aware of Juliens numbers against lefties but I think you just have to sit on your clipboard there.

Love seeing healthy, unsausaged, Buxton.

Do also enjoy sneaking a bit of advertising in on the caretakers as well. Oh well, was fun while it lasted. 

[USAFChief]

I'll also be happy to make my daily rant about removing good hitters for bad hitters for a 1 time platoon advantage in the middle innings.

It just means you're getting worse platoon mismatches later. 

[bean5302]

8 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I'll also be happy to make my daily rant about removing good hitters for bad hitters for a 1 time platoon advantage in the middle innings.

It just means you're getting worse platoon mismatches later. 

Not to mention the platoon advantage itself is a little sketchy.
2023 RHB vs. LHP wRC+ 110 median out of 239 batters with 50+ PA
2023 LHB vs. RHP wRC+ 100 median out of 180 batters with 50+ PA

A good hitter takes up 1 roster spot.

2 below average hitters who can hit a little better than average against only RHP or LHP take up 2 roster spots for no net added value, and when the opponents swap RHP/LHP/RHP, you can't keep swapping your hitters back and forth as you're noting.

[mikelink45]

Five games - lots of entertainment.  Let's see what happens the rest of the month before we make judgements 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

19 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I'll also be happy to make my daily rant about removing good hitters for bad hitters for a 1 time platoon advantage in the middle innings.

It just means you're getting worse platoon mismatches later. 

This...

Pinch hitting for Julien in the 4th reeked of over-managing.  Sometimes you just need to let them play the game.

[FlyingFinn]

40 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

'm well aware of Juliens numbers against lefties

This is where Rocco is making Julien not hitting lh's a self-fulfilling prophecy. He faces 1 lefty in a week and then when he is forced to face another one, he's supposed to be great at it so he doesn't get taken out of games for the next week. Give the guy a chance against lh's, especially in the 4th inning. 

[stringer bell]

9 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I'll also be happy to make my daily rant about removing good hitters for bad hitters for a 1 time platoon advantage in the middle innings.

It just means you're getting worse platoon mismatches later. 

True. With essentially a three-man bench, there just aren't enough players to get the platoon advantage throughout a game. I haven't read Gleeman's Athletic article about platoons, but he summarized it by saying that managers platoon because it gets results. Left handed hitters seem to have more dramatic splits and the Twins have three younger players who hit left handed and have superior hitting skills, but less defensive chops. If they were better defenders than their right handed (or switch hitting) counterparts, maybe the manager wouldn't pull them in the middle innings. It's important to get the lead when you get a chance and having the platoon advantage might make Kyle Farmer a better choice to hit than Edouard Julien, but IMHO it kills to have Farmer batting in the next game situation against a right handed high leverage reliever. 

Rocco Baldelli's job is to win games. I think more than most, he looks at the bigger picture of the year with his resting of players and pitcher usage. To me, it's a blind spot in not giving Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner more chances against same-handed pitching. I'd love to see one, two or all three guys graduate to full-time status where they are in the lineup more than half the time against left handed starters and I hope Rocco gives them that chance.

 

[stringer bell]

BTW, pretty sure Jax threw >0 pitches today.

[jkcarew]

Nice game overall for the bats…and also the bullpen. (The bullpen was good in both Brewers games.) Nice win.

The good: I liked the decision to go with Stewart and Jax in the 7th and 8th. Good job of adapting/reacting to the circumstances of the game as it unfolded. Something that Rocco hasn’t necessarily been great at, IMO.

The bad: The top of the 4th inning was an embarrassing clown show…all on Rocco. If you’re replacing your leadoff hitter in the 4th inning…in itself, highly questionable…and do so with a mediocre hitter (being kind), a guy who feels his best chance to drive in runs with two outs and the bases juiced, is to try to score the guy from 3rd with a perfectly placed bunt…well…clown show.

The fact that the pitch hitter showed zero confidence in his own ability to drive the ball for a base hit (that probably scores TWO runs) and instead bunted on his own, makes Rocco look WORSE, not better, for having put him in there in the first place. In the 4th inning.

[akmanak]

Always nice to beat the Brewers and we got a split.  I am not sure the actual statistics, but it feels like we aren't striking out as much and taking some more walks.(Small sample size)

 

Now to the negative aspect, the head scratcher pinch hitter was another glaring hole. I will say it again that I don't think Rocco is a good manager and I think we will see even more boneheaded moves as the season progresses. 

[jkcarew]

Many of us may think that Julien is a potential all-star level hitter. But, Rocco gives every indication he thinks Julien’s ceiling is Randy Bush. He might be right and he might be wrong…but how will we ever know if he’s wrong?

[USAFChief]

33 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

True. With essentially a three-man bench, there just aren't enough players to get the platoon advantage throughout a game. I haven't read Gleeman's Athletic article about platoons, but he summarized it by saying that managers platoon because it gets results. Left handed hitters seem to have more dramatic splits and the Twins have three younger players who hit left handed and have superior hitting skills, but less defensive chops. If they were better defenders than their right handed (or switch hitting) counterparts, maybe the manager wouldn't pull them in the middle innings. It's important to get the lead when you get a chance and having the platoon advantage might make Kyle Farmer a better choice to hit than Edouard Julien, but IMHO it kills to have Farmer batting in the next game situation against a right handed high leverage reliever. 

Rocco Baldelli's job is to win games. I think more than most, he looks at the bigger picture of the year with his resting of players and pitcher usage. To me, it's a blind spot in not giving Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner more chances against same-handed pitching. I'd love to see one, two or all three guys graduate to full-time status where they are in the lineup more than half the time against left handed starters and I hope Rocco gives them that chance.

 

Heck, I'm generally a platoon advantage guy. I think LH pitching has been tough for every LH hitter in the history of baseball.

But...even if one believes that, taking Julien out for a dubious RH hitter that early just about guarantees Margot is getting 1 or 2 ABs later giving up the platoon advantage. 

Maybe Julien wont hit LH pitching,  ever. But I'm pretty confident Julien against RH pitching is a better hitter than Margot against a lefty. 

Don't do it.

[joefish]

Nice to see Buxton and Correa chipping in at the plate. That bodes well.

[stringer bell]

20 minutes ago, akmanak said:

Always nice to beat the Brewers and we got a split.  I am not sure the actual statistics, but it feels like we aren't striking out as much and taking some more walks.(Small sample size)

44 Ks in 45 innings of hitting, not exactly Arraez like strikeout numbers, but an improvement. They have struck out 43 batters in 43 innings of pitching. 

The Twins have been outhomered substantially so far this year. Given the composition of the roster, they need to hit homers to win games. 

[RpR]

49 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Tr To me, it's a blind spot in not giving Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner more chances against same-handed pitching.

 

Kirilloff earned a chance and was given it; the other two are handi-caps and Baldelli rarely gambles.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

I'll also be happy to make my daily rant about removing good hitters for bad hitters for a 1 time platoon advantage in the middle innings.

It just means you're getting worse platoon mismatches later. 

It also means you built an inefficient roster when your #2 catcher is the last available hitter come the 7th inning.

[Jocko87]

44 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

True. With essentially a three-man bench, there just aren't enough players to get the platoon advantage throughout a game. I haven't read Gleeman's Athletic article about platoons, but he summarized it by saying that managers platoon because it gets results. Left handed hitters seem to have more dramatic splits and the Twins have three younger players who hit left handed and have superior hitting skills, but less defensive chops. If they were better defenders than their right handed (or switch hitting) counterparts, maybe the manager wouldn't pull them in the middle innings. It's important to get the lead when you get a chance and having the platoon advantage might make Kyle Farmer a better choice to hit than Edouard Julien, but IMHO it kills to have Farmer batting in the next game situation against a right handed high leverage reliever. 

Rocco Baldelli's job is to win games. I think more than most, he looks at the bigger picture of the year with his resting of players and pitcher usage. To me, it's a blind spot in not giving Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner more chances against same-handed pitching. I'd love to see one, two or all three guys graduate to full-time status where they are in the lineup more than half the time against left handed starters and I hope Rocco gives them that chance.

 

The article on platoons is focused on the long term, and I think everyone is pretty much on that same page.  The effect is more significant on starting lineup construction than pinch hitting where it should be a game choice of two hitters for one spot.  In choosing to make it so early, Rocco is making it about at least two additional at bats without knowing anything about what those at bats will mean.

The three man bench means chose your spots wisely.  He obviously wants to break the game open there but I have no doubt AK was coming out too if the inning continues.  I'd hate to be a manager with no moves left after the 4th inning but I'm an aviation guy who doesn't single point of failure anything.  I'm sure Joe Ryan can play a mean little league left field but I'm not looking to see it.