Here’s How Brooks Lee Can Earn the Twins an Extra Draft Pick

[Cody Christie]

For years, MLB teams were incentivized to leave MLB-ready prospects in the minor leagues to gain an extra year of team control. Under the new CBA, there are ways for teams to earn extra draft picks when prospects get immediate opportunities and perform well, and the Twins have that avenue open with Brooks Lee in 2024.

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

Entering the 2015 season, Kris Bryant was coming off a monster year in the minor leagues, hitting .325/.438/.661 with 34 doubles and 43 home runs. It was one of the best minor-league seasons ever, and he looked more than prepared to step into a role at the big-league level. Instead, the Cubs sent him to Triple-A Iowa to begin the season, under the pretense of needing to work on his defense at that level.

In actuality, it was a way for the team to gain an extra year of control over the player. Bryant played seven games at Iowa before the team deemed him ready for his big-league debut. Many teams have manipulated a player’s service time, but this was allowed under the previous rules, and the MLBPA wanted a way to avoid this issue.

During the last collective bargaining agreement, the MLBPA and owners added a Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) to reward teams for promoting their best prospects at the start of the season. According to MLB.com, “An MLB club can earn a Draft pick after the first round if a PPI-eligible player accrues one year of service as a rookie and then factors into a major award. That means he either has to win his league’s Rookie of the Year award or place in the top three in MVP or Cy Young voting prior to qualifying for arbitration.”

So, how has this impacted teams in recent years? In 2022, the Mariners added Julio Rodríguez to their Opening Day roster even though he had yet to play a game above Double A. He had a terrific season and won the AL Rookie of the Year. Seattle was awarded the 29th overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, added an extra $2.8 million to their bonus pool for the draft. They selected Jonny Farmelo, a high-school outfielder, whom they signed for an over-slot amount to lure him away from the University of Virginia. 

During the 2023 season, Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll took home Rookie of the Year honors after making their respective clubs out of spring training. Arizona was awarded the 31st overall pick (and Baltimore the 32nd) in the upcoming 2024 MLB Draft. Both teams will also see additional bonus pool money added to their overall total because of these high picks. 

Eligibility for the PPI in the 2024 season is based on the preseason top-100 prospect rankings from MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, and ESPN. Minnesota has three eligible prospects: Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Brooks Lee. Jenkins and Rodríguez aren’t expected to debut this year, but Lee is on the cusp of the big leagues after finishing at Triple-A St. Paul in 2023.

The Twins haven’t indicated that Lee is in contention to break camp with the club, but it is certainly within the realm of possibility. Minnesota traded Jorge Polanco earlier this offseason because of the team’s infield depth, including Eduoard Julien being the projected starter at second base. Then, they traded left-hitting utility man Nick Gordon to the Marlins. The Twins think highly of Lee, and he has arguably the highest baseball IQ of any prospect in the organization. Injuries could always change the equation and push Lee into the team’s Opening Day plans.

Even if Lee made the roster, there is no guarantee that he would perform well enough to win the AL Rookie of the Year. Baltimore's Jackson Holliday is the favorite to win the award, after a tremendous 2023 season that saw him move from Low A to Triple A and rake at every step up the ladder. He is widely considered baseball's best overall prospect, and the Orioles have already experienced the upside of this system firsthand. Lee would need to perform better than Holliday and other favorites like Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford.

In all likelihood, the Twins will end up making their decision about Lee's season-opening assignment based on the health of their roster and the quality of his play this spring, rather than based on the PPI. It's a nice tiebreaker, though, because it pushes teams to give fans more of what they want--young players getting immediate chances to contribute in the big leagues.

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Should the Twins be aggressive with Lee to start next season? Is it worth pushing him for the team to get a chance at an extra draft pick? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Doctor Gast]

It would depend on Lee's attitude & performance plus the Twins' willingness to do so. I heard about an interview with Lee asking if he thought he could break camp on the Twins roster? He said he thought he wouldn't be ready. I'm not one to rush prospects to the MLB & put added pressure on them. Now with Julien as the primary 2Bman, if Lee had a great spring training, I'd be tempted to bring him up right away.

[dxpavelka]

Just DON'T trade him.

[Karbo]

I don't see Lee making the opening day roster as things shape up so far. There just isn't a position for him to play at this time. I could see next season Jenkins with a chance though.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Why not be aggressive with all 3 of our top prospects? I would be disappointed if Lee and E. Rodriguez are not at least late season callups with both of these guys being on the 2025 opening day Twins roster. Lets also see Jenkins in St.Paul late season too.

[Riverbrian]

Can we wait just a bit first? 

Please? 

 

 

[mikelink45]

Fun speculation on Superbowl Monday, but I do not see this new rule influencing the team. 

[Dman]

As mentioned by many already I just don't see the Twins having Lee starting the year with the MLB team if Jullien, Lewis and Correa are all healthy as there isn't room for him to play everyday.  It would go against the Twins philosophy to have him come up and be a bench player.  They will want him to get everyday reps and he didn't dominate AAA last year so he needs the reps.   I don't think pushing your young players up before they are ready is something the Twins would do or be pressured with by hoping they get another 1st round pick.

The roster looks pretty much set so unless things change quite a bit before the season I don't see a spot for Lee to start the season.  Once he dominates AAA and injuries mount they can likely find room later in the season.

[NotAboutWinning]

Lee is not ROY material. It has taken him a bit to settle in at each level. I don't see him lighting up MLB from the start.

[arby58]

Both Lee and Holliday played at AA and AAA last year. Holliday's OPS was .928 and .796 respectively. Lee was .841 and .731. Interestingly, at the AAA level, Holliday's walks versus strikeouts were basically 50-50, while Lee struck out about twice as often as he walked. Besides the issue of playing time at the MLB level, it looks like Holliday is well ahead of Lee offensively - and is about two years younger. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

When  he is ready, he will be up. Can't wait to see him play. Maybe that's at 1b or 2b or even primarily dh, but he will be up. 

[wabene]

It interesting to hear this rule spelled out. It is a tiny thing really only effecting the cream of the crop. Presumably it would be bad teams with the highest picks that would have the best chance to benefit from this, so it could more often than not help with competitive balance. It would be unwise to base your decision making on your guy being the one player that might meet the criteria. If the MLB is serious about ending service time manipulation, this is not the answer. Much more would need to be done.

Lee is clearly not ready, but will be called up at some point. Service time will not be a factor in this case. A hot spring means nothing, just look at Miranda last year. 

[Major League Ready]

I would be ecstatic if he showed the type of dominance that proved he was ready by June.  

[Trov]

I am glad they added the bonus for having your young guys break camp with ya and rewarded for doing well.  That being said, I find it unlikely Lee will break camp, barring a super hot spring and injuries, and I also find it unlikely lee will win ROY over Holliday, unless Holliday gets hurt or really is over his head. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Interesting article. This rule just makes the good teams better. 

[chpettit19]

I don't see any chance Lee breaks camp, or is up in the first couple weeks, to be eligible for the extra pick compensation unless the team is hit hard by spring injuries. I think the more realistic chance for the Twins to take advantage of this opportunity is with Rodriguez and Jenkins the next couple years. I'd like to see the Twins do what other teams have with their top prospects and give them a September callup (if they've earned it) the season before so they get their feet wet and have a better chance of sticking on the opening day roster the next season. Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll had both debuted the previous season, but didn't get enough ABs to exhaust their rookie eligibility. 

If they go that route with Lee it's going to be pretty disappointing as there's very likely a job opening due to injury sometime well before September 2024. I don't see any way he's really a factor in the fight for an extra draft pick. But Rodriguez getting a late season callup in 2024 and hitting the opening day roster for 2025 could be a possibility. Or Jenkins making our dreams come true by following Jackson Holliday's lead and blowing through the entire system in a year could open the door, too. Lee just isn't in a place to make the opening day roster (I'd argue there's a starting spot open, though) because he hasn't shown a mastery of the minor leagues yet. He's looking much more like a mid-season callup.

[saviking]

I did not know that. Thx

[tony&rodney]

It would take a serious injury to get Lee on to the roster, which would weaken the team quite a bit. Lee will play in the majors soon enough.

[Blyleven2011]

What is considered a whole year ???

What if Lee played lights out for 3/4 of the season and then God forbid  an injury happened would he still be in the running for ROY award  ???

Lee made it to AAA last year which is amazing  to say the least , he didn't have outstanding numbers there , If he puts the bat on every ball in spring training , that would be the only way he he makes the team , if not ,  he will be at AAA for the start ...

Can't wait to see him hitting alot of doubles for the Twins ...

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

What is considered a whole year ???

What if Lee played lights out for 3/4 of the season and then God forbid  an injury happened would he still be in the running for ROY award  ???

Lee made it to AAA last year which is amazing  to say the least , he didn't have outstanding numbers there , If he puts the bat on every ball in spring training , that would be the only way he he makes the team , if not ,  he will be at AAA for the start ...

Can't wait to see him hitting alot of doubles for the Twins ...

A whole year is 172 days on the MLB roster or IL. The season is 187 days so you have basically 2 weeks that you can not be on the roster or IL and get credit for a full year. So to be eligible for the extra draft pick a player needs to be up within the first 2 weeks of the season and then stay on the roster enough of the rest of the year to not go beyond those 15 days of cushion you get.

[Blyleven2011]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

A whole year is 172 days on the MLB roster or IL. The season is 187 days so you have basically 2 weeks that you can not be on the roster or IL and get credit for a full year. So to be eligible for the extra draft pick a player needs to be up within the first 2 weeks of the season and then stay on the roster enough of the rest of the year to not go beyond those 15 days of cushion you get.

So your saying when on the  injured list you are not accumulating days on the roster and you need 172 days on the active roster ???

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

So your saying when on the  injured list you are not accumulating days on the roster and you need 172 days on the active roster ???

Nope, the opposite. If you get hurt while on the MLB roster your time on the IL counts towards your service time. Royce Lewis, for example, has accrued over a year of service time, but we are all well aware that he's only played in 70 total games. But all his time on the IL was counted as service time.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

Would obviously be a ton of fun, but hard to project anyone other than the O's & Brewers to get the extra draft pick this year.

Also hard to see Lee getting enough playing time sans some major injury to Lewis/Correa/Julien - don't worry I knocked on wood after typing this out. Lewis and Julien have a pretty good chance at being the best hitters on the team this season, so unless Lee comes out hotter than hot in Spring Training I don't see them blowing up the 1B platoon of Kiriloff and Santana to move Julien over there full-time to fit in Lee at 2B. 

[Blyleven2011]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

Nope, the opposite. If you get hurt while on the MLB roster your time on the IL counts towards your service time. Royce Lewis, for example, has accrued over a year of service time, but we are all well aware that he's only played in 70 total games. But all his time on the IL was counted as service time.

 

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

 

Thanks , I thought that , but other response from you mentioned  2 weeks not being on roster and IL list for full year of credit and that through me off some ,

That's for the clarification...

[nicksaviking]

I'm not saying the incentive hasn't worked, but really, it sounds pretty ridiculous.

MLBPA: You owners have to start letting the rookies who are ready onto the 26-man rosters on opening day.

Owners: But then the players will get an extra year of service time and we'll have to pay them more, sooner.

MLBPA: What if we give you extra draft picks as a carrot?

Owners: High draft picks? That we will have to pay about 3M, IN ADDITION to the rookie who's now going to cost more money?

MLBPA: Yes.

Owners; Deal.

[Fatbat]

It will be interesting to see Lee on the opening day roster and where they play him. Falvey said that as soon as Lee says he is ready, they will find a place for him on the 26 man. They are obviously high on the young man and will go against years of holding back prospects n the minors. Lee wont be traded and he wont be in the minors much if at all in ‘24 unless he wants to be in AAA. I don’t know many players that don’t want to play on varsity when given the green light. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Brooks Lee will play on the Twins team when he is ready and there is a spot for him to play.  There is no chance that they promote him and "hope" that he can win some awards.  It would be malpractice to do so, both for him and for the team.

[Nashvilletwin]

Boy, first an article about Buxton making the HOF and now a post that Lee might be the ROY.  How about both players show up for work everyday, stay healthy, and put out 100% effort and then  let’s see how things develop.

I’m as excited about their prospects as the next guy, probably more, but, geez, talk about putting the cart before the horse….

[terrydactyls]

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Interesting article. This rule just makes the good teams better. 

I think it is just the opposite.  The worst teams get the highest draft picks and the higher draft picks theoretically have the best chance of being named ROY.

[chpettit19]

43 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

It will be interesting to see Lee on the opening day roster and where they play him. Falvey said that as soon as Lee says he is ready, they will find a place for him on the 26 man. They are obviously high on the young man and will go against years of holding back prospects n the minors. Lee wont be traded and he wont be in the minors much if at all in ‘24 unless he wants to be in AAA. I don’t know many players that don’t want to play on varsity when given the green light. 

I don't think we should take that quote so literally. They're not actually going to ask Lee where he wants to play. His play is going to do the speaking, and so far it hasn't said "I'm ready for the majors." There's a pretty small chance Lee sees the majors in the first month of the season, I think.