Could the Next Step in Max Kepler's Long Journey Be a Contract Extension?

[Hans Birkeland]

Kepler is now the longest tenured Twin, and following a rebound offensively, is entering the final year of his contract. Extending players as they enter their 30's in generally frowned upon in analytic circles, but there is precedent for a talented, yet up-and-down, hitter finding something in the second half of their career.

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

Max Kepler has been a lot of things in his long tenure as a Twin: A 36-homer leadoff man, smooth defender, and the posterchild for why looking at BABIP to project future performance is better left in 2012. He’s had injuries, stretches of historically poor contact quality, and countless trade rumors. It’s been a ride, and people have certainly had opinions about it.

Last year, Kepler reversed a years-long downtrend in performance by saying “Screw it, I’ll just swing harder and live with a few more strikeouts.” As a result, he had the second best year of his career and the Twins picked up his 2024 club option. They also traded his draft-mate from 2009, Jorge Polanco to the Mariners (where playing second base is like being a drummer for Spinal Tap). It appears that Kepler will play out the final year of his contract with the Twins, which is good news, because unlike in mid-2023, they don’t have anyone to replace him (unless you still believe in Trevor Larnach).

A lot of Twins fans have been done with Kepler for years now, but given his unique career arc and the team’s flimsier than expected outfield depth, it may make sense to extend him, rather than watch him leave in free agency following this year. Here’s why.

As Kepler enters his age 31 season, I wondered if there are any other players with similar trajectories in their careers. Someone who started solid enough, peaked to a point they got MVP votes, then leveled off before finding something at age 30. That got me thinking about Adrian Beltre, newly enshrined first-ballot Hall of Famer.

Stay with me here. They play different positions and hit from different sides, but let’s remember who Beltre was through his first decade or so in the majors. He got to the major leagues as an uber prospect, debuting at the age of 19 for a much more dysfunctional Dodgers team than we are used to these days. He acclimated himself well at the start, posting a 102 OPS+ in his first full season at age 20.

Baseball fans love players who can’t legally drink but can post league average numbers- Imagine what they can do once they fill out and learn the league! Well, Beltre didn’t really take off from there, producing four middling seasons leading up to his walk year in 2004.

He busted out that year, hitting 48 home runs, playing stellar defense and finishing second in the MVP voting to perhaps the greatest hitting season of Barry Bonds’ (or anyone’s) career. There it was! The talent that lay dormant for so long was finally translating to impact production. He secured a big contract from the Seattle Mariners… and then resumed being a roughly league-average hitter with good defense.

I don’t have to tell you how Max Keplery that is. In fact, through their age 30 seasons, Beltre had produced a 105 OPS+ for his career, while Kepler is at 104. The lows were lower for Kepler, and the highs were higher for Beltre, but the overall career arc is fairly similar. Neither struck out a lot, both played through injuries that sometimes sapped their performance, and both were revered as strong, yet somewhat odd, clubhouse presences.

Had Beltre continued to produce as he had in LA and Seattle, he would have fallen off the HOF ballot by now. But starting with a one year stop in Boston (which prompted agent Scott Boras to invent the term “pillow contract”), Beltre found a sweet spot in performance that didn’t quite reach his 2004 breakout peak, but was far more productive than his other years to that point. From that point forward, he hit for a 133 OPS+, played in a World Series, went viral countless times for his humorous exchanges with friend/nemesis Elvis Andrus, and waltzed into the Hall of Fame.

No one is predicting that for Kepler, but then again no one was counting on sustained dominance from Beltre 13 years ago, either. What if Max has figured something out and his 124 OPS+ from 2023 is repeatable?

My guess is that Kepler felt that the Twins’ brass were fed up with him in June of last year and that shook him up. He stopped caring about avoiding strikeouts, or taking walks, and became more process-oriented. He had the highest strikeout percentage of his career, and his lowest walk rate since 2017. Whatever the catalyst was, it worked, as his OPS the final three months was .840, 1.008, and .851. His Baseball Savant page was even more encouraging.

Ask any Red Sox fan (or executive) and they will tell you that not keeping Beltre after his 2010 re-emergence was a huge regret. Losing Polanco removes a ton of continuity from the clubhouse, so keeping Kepler around on an extension would make sense on a corporate level (as well as a human one). If he goes back to hitting for the league average and neither Emmanuel Rodríguez or Walker Jenkins displace him immediately, you just bank on the clubhouse pluses and the worry-free defense.

Judging by the Twins’ inability to trade him the past three-to-four offseasons, he may not even cost that much to retain. It all depends on how you project him going forward. His top Baseball-reference.com comparable is Colby Rasmus, a soft-spoken former top ten global prospect who performed in fits and starts throughout his career and was out of the league following his age 31 season. He did make a few postseason memories. Another comp further down is Darrell Evans, who followed Beltre’s exact career path of immediately being decent, being great for one year, flatlining, and then being a top 20 hitter in baseball for six years (123 OPS+ after age 35). Which camp will Kepler fall into?

There’s a very fine line as a 30-year-old position player between being a candidate for a three year, 45M contract, or a four year 80M one. I suspect the Twins would consider the former but scoff at the latter, and I would agree. Kepler is a guy who falls out of whack a lot at the plate, but usually figures it out somewhere along the line. He’ll end up with 20 home runs, an OPS below his talent level, and the sort of defense that, while not electrifying, acts as a security blanket preventing other outfield options from navigating right field at the Targe. That’s a solid investment at 15M annually.

Additionally, the Twins surest things after him are Byron Buxton and Matt Wallner in the outfield, and there are contact-related questions for outfield prospects Rodríguez (too little) and the newly acquired Gabriel González (too much).

The Twins brass are having these discussions. If Kepler departs after this year, they will likely be in the market for a corner outfielder who can hit and defend, especially if Wallner can’t legitimize his 2023 breakout. Another angle is that If Kepler produces another 120 OPS+ in 2024, he may receive a qualifying offer, which would depress his market elsewhere, or even lead to him accepting and returning for 2025 at a roughly 20M salary. That may be the Goldilocks scenario, as Rodríguez, González and Jenkins should all be in play for the 2026 season.

To be sure, the overwhelming odds are that Kepler will play out this last year with the Twins and become a free agent. Mid-market teams like the Twins, especially ones with analytic-leaning front offices, don't often extend players of his type. Indeed, it would have been ludicrous at the All-Star break to even have this conversation.

But Kepler pivoted at that point, and the Twins front office has shown they're capable of pivoting too. If they believed enough to keep starting Kepler through mid-2023, perhaps they can believe enough to believe that his late 2023 wasn't a mirage. Maybe Kepler's journey with the Twins doesn't need to end just yet.

---

What do you think? Would you sign up for three to four more years of Kepler, or roll the dice with the Twins’ minor-league outfielders and Wallner?

View full article

[DaveW44]

No. Please no. 

[Doctor Gast]

I was all for not trading away Kepler for peanuts in '23 (against most fans' opinions), because of the shift ban Kepler would capitalize on it. Although it delayed, Kepler did find his old groove.  '24 I stated I was for keeping all the salary dump candidates, expecting Kepler to continue his groove. Looking at history, in '19 Kepler had a great groove, in '20, pitchers adjusted & Kepler couldn't readjust. In '23 Kepler found that old groove that the Twins love. So realistically rethinking my stance on Kepler. in '24 pitchers will adjust to Kepler, will Kepler readjust? History says no. Because of this, I say no to extending Kepler & even consider trading him if it helps the club.

[Paul]

I think your comp of Beltre is apt. I've always been a big fan of Kep. I still believe he's got a couple of all-star seasons in him. What most might fail to recognize about him is he grew up in Germany, where baseball was probably number 3 on his list of sports he played. His father was a pro tennis player, and Max had a future as a pro soccer goalie if he wanted. From what I have read he didn't get uber serious about baseball until he was drafted as a 16-year-old, and came to a foreign country. Most current baseball pros his age have been serious about the game for about 5 more years than Max. With those years being from about 5 to 11 when most people are like a sponge, being very impressionable. I believe it makes sense for the Twins to re-sign him. If they don't someone else will. And they will harvest the seeds planted by the Twins.

[Karbo]

I hope he makes a tough decision for the Twins. A full season like he had the 2nd half of last year will make him an extend candidate. What are the odds?

[dxpavelka]

never a fan of "move on from a guy to create a need for that guy"

[miracleb]

I might be in the minority......but I still have confidence in giving Larnach 450 at bats this year.....

[jorgenswest]

I hope Kepler has such a good season he is worthy of a qualifying offer. I wouldn’t extend him.

Meanwhile the Twins should start preparing this spring for the outfield in 24 and 25. I think the best long term solution is Lewis. His athleticism would be a real plus anywhere in the outfield. Falvey was quoted as saying that outfield is something they would revisit for Lewis in the off-season. It didn’t surprise me that they were cautious with him returning last year in May without a spring training. If not Lewis then they really need to get Brooks Lee some reps in the outfield starting this spring.

[Mark G]

It appears that the Twins have morphed into a team that values power over contact, and OPS and slugging percentage over average and RBI's; not to mention above average defense.  How does Max not fit that bill?  And at 31 (I prefer to look at it as only 31), what would be the downside of a 3 year 45 mil contract with offensive number bonuses if he produces (maybe Buxton esc type incentives)?  Or, if he would go for it, a two year 24-34 mil contract with team options for a year or two out from there?  I just sense that Max is not finished and has a few good years left in him; I would wonder why they weren't spent here if they just let him play out the year and go somewhere else.  Either trade him while he has value, which is now, or extend him before he increases his bargaining power as I suspect he might.  Whatever lies behind door number 3 doesn't look as enticing, at least to me.  

[LewFordLives]

I was all for releasing Kepler last June. He was bad. So obviously I wouldn't be in favor of a three year extension. I hope he changes my mind this season.

[Mark G]

2 minutes ago, Mark G said:

It appears that the Twins have morphed into a team that values power over contact, and OPS and slugging percentage over average and RBI's; not to mention above average defense.  How does Max not fit that bill?  And at 31 (I prefer to look at it as only 31), what would be the downside of a 3 year 45 mil contract with offensive number bonuses if he produces (maybe Buxton esc type incentives)?  Or, if he would go for it, a two year 24-34 mil contract with team options for a year or two out from there?  I just sense that Max is not finished and has a few good years left in him; I would wonder why they weren't spent here if they just let him play out the year and go somewhere else.  Either trade him while he has value, which is now, or extend him before he increases his bargaining power as I suspect he might.  Whatever lies behind door number 3 doesn't look as enticing, at least to me.  

Sorry, those last numbers were supposed to be a 32-36 mil 2 year deal; not sure how I got 24 and 34 in there.  :)

[killertwinfan]

I am not sure I am right, but my belief is that Kepler is getting a raise at the end of this contract and that is why he has low trade value.  
That being said, it doesn’t make sense for the Twins to spend the money on him when they have a lot of young outfielders that have a higher upside.  I am a little puzzled by this viewpoint and even if Kepler breaks out this season, it’s only one season and I wouldn’t take the risk of paying him to consistently perform at that level. 

[TwinsDr2021]

Twice in his career has he produced of oWAR of 1.8 and will turn 31 in 25 days. so no I am not extending him unless he takes a huge home town discount.

[rv78]

If Gallo was worth $11M then Kepler should be worth 15. I can see an extension happening. This FO doesn't look in the rear view mirror. Just look at the players they sign and extend. Most have histories of injuries or just not being very good players on a consistant basis. Sure they maybe had 1 good season in their career or were good 6 years ago before their 4-5 seasons of playing injured half the time, so they are targets for this FO. Kepler fits that narrative also. 1.5 good seasons in his 9 year career is plenty good for these guys. He's perfect.

[DJL44]

This team cannot give extensions to 30+ year old players, compete AND run a $120M payroll.

Give the extensions to Jeffers and Duran instead.

[Nashvilletwin]

Crazy, but I was just thinking of this the other day when we had the Soler debate. My point then was if we inked Soler to a two year deal, we’d have a hedge on Kepler to either trade at this year’s deadline or lose in free agency in ‘25. We’d at least have a corner outfielder to pair with Wallner if we decided to move on from Kep.

Soler did not happen.  So if Kepler leaves, what is our current corner outfield depth for ‘25? Rodriguez, Larnach, or Rosario? Maybe Martin in left field (he may be our hedge in CF if Buxton is not healthy).

The FO will wait and see how the prospects fair in ‘24 before reupping Max.  But Max signing an extension is not the zero probability event a lot of us thought heading into the off-season.

Max not being traded is another reason to think that the FO views an extension as a possibility as well. In fact, so much so, that may be a reason they didn’t sign Soler. Think about it - you could have Soler locked in for a minimum of $15MM per for two years (he wants 3x$15MM) or a 31 year old Max for the same $30MM total outlay, but with an option on the $20MM second year.  If you can only have one or the other, you stick with Max.

[Major League Ready]

49 minutes ago, Mark G said:

It appears that the Twins have morphed into a team that values power over contact, and OPS and slugging percentage over average and RBI's; not to mention above average defense.  How does Max not fit that bill?  And at 31 (I prefer to look at it as only 31), what would be the downside of a 3 year 45 mil contract with offensive number bonuses if he produces (maybe Buxton esc type incentives)?  Or, if he would go for it, a two year 24-34 mil contract with team options for a year or two out from there?  I just sense that Max is not finished and has a few good years left in him; I would wonder why they weren't spent here if they just let him play out the year and go somewhere else.  Either trade him while he has value, which is now, or extend him before he increases his bargaining power as I suspect he might.  Whatever lies behind door number 3 doesn't look as enticing, at least to me.  

Door number 3 (not signing him now) has some reasonably good outcomes as well.  One, he has a good year and they give him a qualifying offer.  They either get him on a one-year deal or get a comp round pick.  Two, he is Max Kepler of 2021-22 and we would rather not have a long-term contract.  Three, he has a good year and they pay him a little more than they would now.  The dark horse, Larnach takes off, Wallner goes to right, Larnach to left.

[saviking]

Let's sit back and see how Kepler performs this year before discussing extending his contract. Last year was a tale of two cities. Let's see which one shoes up this year. 

I have always liked Kepler and felt he had a great swing and incredable defense so I'm rooting for him but he needs to drop the Jeckle and Hyde act and put together solid season from beginning to end. 

[arby58]

1 hour ago, miracleb said:

I might be in the minority......but I still have confidence in giving Larnach 450 at bats this year.....

The movie title 'Trouble with the Curve' springs immediately to mind. Until Larnach proves he can hit that pitch, the only pitcher types I'd regularly start him against are Joe Ryan types (and he currently doesn't get to hit against Ryan).

[Dman]

32 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

This team cannot give extensions to 30+ year old players, compete AND run a $120M payroll.

Give the extensions to Jeffers and Duran instead.

This is my take as well.  They have 45M to 50M per year attached to Correa and Buxton.  They have arb raises to deal with and they will want to extend some of this younger talent like they did Polanco and Kepler back in the day.  I don't see investing what few dollars the team has in Kepler as something they would want to do.

I still think Max has a good year this year.  Likely not as good as second half Kepler but still a very good one. He is going to want to try and get a three to four year deal in a price range that squeezes out the Twins IMO.  Maybe he turns back into the old middling Kepler whatever the case I don't see the Twins extending him.

[Fatbat]

I don’t think he gets an extension. He might have a monster year in which case he will turn down the QO offer and sign elsewhere for 3 yr 60M with a 4/5 yr option. Twins move on to Erod/Rosario ‘25, Jenkins/GG ‘26. Pohlands homegrown moneyball team. 

[Nashvilletwin]

10 minutes ago, arby58 said:

The movie title 'Trouble with the Curve' springs immediately to mind. Until Larnach proves he can hit that pitch, the only pitcher types I'd regularly start him against are Joe Ryan types (and he currently doesn't get to hit against Ryan).

Actually, Larnach may find himself on the trade block as the 40 man gets tight.  Having said that, he’d probably welcome that in order to get those 450 ABs miracleb suggested.  He wants, and deserves, a bigger chance to prove himself. 

[Jeff K]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

I hope Kepler has such a good season he is worthy of a qualifying offer. I wouldn’t extend him.

Meanwhile the Twins should start preparing this spring for the outfield in 24 and 25. I think the best long term solution is Lewis. His athleticism would be a real plus anywhere in the outfield. Falvey was quoted as saying that outfield is something they would revisit for Lewis in the off-season. It didn’t surprise me that they were cautious with him returning last year in May without a spring training. If not Lewis then they really need to get Brooks Lee some reps in the outfield starting this spring.

I sure agree!  I also believe that Kirilloff could be an outfield consideration if we can solve first base.

[Mark G]

47 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Door number 3 (not signing him now) has some reasonably good outcomes as well.  One, he has a good year and they give him a qualifying offer.  They either get him on a one-year deal or get a comp round pick.  Two, he is Max Kepler of 2021-22 and we would rather not have a long-term contract.  Three, he has a good year and they pay him a little more than they would now.  The dark horse, Larnach takes off, Wallner goes to right, Larnach to left.

I can't argue with any of the scenarios you listed, but to use the game show analogy you get to see what is behind door number 1 and door number 2.  You are then offered the choice of taking one of those 2, or gambling on what might be behind door number 3.  In this case the 2 suggestions I made would be known scenarios/outcomes.  Any of the things you listed behind door number 3 are all very possible, but unknown; we have to wait and see.  My thought process was if we don't think what we see (or saw last year) is what we will get in the future, move him while someone else still sees a value for him.  If we think what we see is what we will get some more of, extend him now before he prices himself out of our range and the best we can hope for is a comp round pick (which, to me, is no better than a class A prospect from another organization; both are crap shoots).  I wouldn't pretend to advise which one of those scenarios to take, but I hate the wait and see scenario; I would rather be proactive than reactive in cases like this.  

[farmerguychris]

For a team that watches its payroll closely- I see no reason to extend him with younger, cheaper players already in our system.    Its that simple for me if I were in the FO.

 

 

[tony&rodney]

The comparison to Beltre loosely fits in some ways. Max is an elite athlete. The second half of last season could be repeated for multiple full seasons going forward. Kepler is very difficult to predict though.

I'm not always sure that baseball and the life is completely an ideal for him. Max Kepler came to the United States as a 16 year old, but he was very aware of and had exposure to U. S. culture and habits while attending John F. Kennedy School in Berlin. Kep is a third culture kid.

As a Twins fan I hope Max Kepler has the best season of his career so far in the coming season. However, I do not believe that Kepler would sign another contract with the Twins in any event.

[Major League Ready]

8 minutes ago, Mark G said:

I can't argue with any of the scenarios you listed, but to use the game show analogy you get to see what is behind door number 1 and door number 2.  You are then offered the choice of taking one of those 2, or gambling on what might be behind door number 3.  In this case the 2 suggestions I made would be known scenarios/outcomes.  Any of the things you listed behind door number 3 are all very possible, but unknown; we have to wait and see.  My thought process was if we don't think what we see (or saw last year) is what we will get in the future, move him while someone else still sees a value for him.  If we think what we see is what we will get some more of, extend him now before he prices himself out of our range and the best we can hope for is a comp round pick (which, to me, is no better than a class A prospect from another organization; both are crap shoots).  I wouldn't pretend to advise which one of those scenarios to take, but I hate the wait and see scenario; I would rather be proactive than reactive in cases like this.  

I totally understand where you are coming from and I was one of the minority that did not want to trade him in June last year.  However, we just can't make any mistakes with muti year deals.  Correa, Buxton, and Lopez represent $70M/year for the next several years.  Plus we have a bunch of guys hitting arbitration next year.  There is also a decent chance E-rod is ready by the 1st half of next year.  Now, if he ends up playing like he did the last half of 2023 for the next 4 years, I will regret not signing him.  I just don't have much confidence that happens.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

I hope he makes a tough decision for the Twins. A full season like he had the 2nd half of last year will make him an extend candidate. What are the odds?

A full season of last year’s second half forces him to “explore the market” .850 OPS & 30 XBH at over .300 BA. He’d be in the top 5 RF in the game………Tucker - Soto - Tatis - couple other guys & then Kepler. Probably going to have to extend by watching Spring Training results, or it’s a toss of the coin for both sides and see where everybody’s at by the end of October.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I would really say depends on what the TV situation and salary situation in the future is.  However,  a $15 million to $20 million player would be tough to keep on the team in my opinion with the other contracts.  I am still hoping for a qualifying offer situation that he turns down similar to Gray this year.  Those extra picks at the end of the 1st round begin to stack up especially with the competitive balance picks.  

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, miracleb said:

I might be in the minority......but I still have confidence in giving Larnach 450 at bats this year.....

About 150 - 250 AB’s in St. Paul & then, if positive, there may be a spot. If the Team’s not thriving in July, Kepler would probably get moved then, if he’s not terrible or great. Am assuming being, at least competitive is a given. Larnach has a hard time out of Spring Training with option left because he can’t play CF & Gordon/Martin both can. Buxton/Castro is the starting CF early but how long can Buxton go out there and how much flexibility do they lose if Castro “has to play CF” every day?