Could the Next Step in Max Kepler's Long Journey Be a Contract Extension?

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, rv78 said:

If Gallo was worth $11M then Kepler should be worth 15. I can see an extension happening. This FO doesn't look in the rear view mirror. Just look at the players they sign and extend. Most have histories of injuries or just not being very good players on a consistant basis. Sure they maybe had 1 good season in their career or were good 6 years ago before their 4-5 seasons of playing injured half the time, so they are targets for this FO. Kepler fits that narrative also. 1.5 good seasons in his 9 year career is plenty good for these guys. He's perfect.

Gallo could play 4 positions and hit 40+ HR previously……..in hindsight, yes, Max is a better value for sure.   ….. If he’s CONSISTENT within the norms of baseball, at a reasonable level, I could see extending 2 years but more than that & he should probably be freed to pursue other teams.

Wanted him gone in May/June &!into July in ‘23!! He seems to have found something in his approach with a more aggressive swing and approach. Great results for 11-12 weeks. Gotta see what he does this spring and see if he can duplicate somewhat.

[sweetmusicviola16]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I was all for not trading away Kepler for peanuts in '23 (against most fans' opinions), because of the shift ban Kepler would capitalize on it. Although it delayed, Kepler did find his old groove.  '24 I stated I was for keeping all the salary dump candidates, expecting Kepler to continue his groove. Looking at history, in '19 Kepler had a great groove, in '20, pitchers adjusted & Kepler couldn't readjust. In '23 Kepler found that old groove that the Twins love. So realistically rethinking my stance on Kepler. in '24 pitchers will adjust to Kepler, will Kepler readjust? History says no. Because of this, I say no to extending Kepler & even consider trading him if it helps the club.

Fully agree with not extending Kepler. He's not what I would call a streaky hitter. But he is what I would call an inconsistent performer. Absolutely no to a new deal for Kepler.

If it made the team better then yes I would trade Kepler. Unfortunately we are thin in the OF. Very thin, so the trade would have to be very good.

[JD-TWINS]

9 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I would really say depends on what the TV situation and salary situation in the future is.  However,  a $15 million to $20 million player would be tough to keep on the team in my opinion with the other contracts.  I am still hoping for a qualifying offer situation that he turns down similar to Gray this year.  Those extra picks at the end of the 1st round begin to stack up especially with the competitive balance picks.  

Turning down the qualifying offer, to me, would be crazy for Max. Almost as bad as offering it to a 32 year old, with OF guys in the Wings. If he hits .275 or better with 22 HR he probably gets an offer from the Twins for a couple years at $15-$16M/yr. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Would not surprise me in the least to see an extension or a re-sign at the end of the year. I would have no problem with a 2/25-30 deal.  That is the going rate for starting OF.  Complain about his performance all you want, but that its what he is.

If the Twins had confidence that there was somebody in the wings to replace him in RF, Kepler would already be traded.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I hope Kepler has such a good season he is worthy of a qualifying offer. I wouldn’t extend him.

Meanwhile the Twins should start preparing this spring for the outfield in 24 and 25. I think the best long term solution is Lewis. His athleticism would be a real plus anywhere in the outfield. Falvey was quoted as saying that outfield is something they would revisit for Lewis in the off-season. It didn’t surprise me that they were cautious with him returning last year in May without a spring training. If not Lewis then they really need to get Brooks Lee some reps in the outfield starting this spring.

Am on similar page - Lee’s best spot has been openly discussed as 3B. Lewis is better athlete. Seems that physically, 3B is more demanding. To get the BATS in the line-up going forward, to me, Lewis in LF & Wallner in RF could stand up for 5 years starting in ‘25 at the latest.

If Kepler is moved & Wallner assumes RF, Team can piece together LF with Gordon/Larnach/Martin/Castro for 2-3 months until Lee might be ready.

$10M of Max’s salary goes a long way in signing a pitcher!

[umterp23]

No to an extension at this time or even at end of the year.  I'm a fan of when the "s$$t" is about to hit the fan whether it is  trade rumors, end of contract, team may DFA you, guys have a tendency to get a prove you wrong mentality.  Maybe Kepler was tired of all it and went out a played care free for 3 months.  3 months doesn't make up 3 years of well below expectations.  Let's see if it carries over 1st half of this year or do we get DFA Kepler and back to what do we do. 

Some guys thrive on being hungry and trying to earn career life changing money and then get it and poof, fall off the edge when they get that money.  Stay hungry Kepler and you might get a back half career money deal.  As of right now, prove for a whole year you are worth that conversation.

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, JD-TWINS said:

Am on similar page - Lee’s best spot has been openly discussed as 3B. Lewis is better athlete. Seems that physically, 3B is more demanding. To get the BATS in the line-up going forward, to me, Lewis in LF & Wallner in RF could stand up for 5 years starting in ‘25 at the latest.

If Kepler is moved & Wallner assumes RF, Team can piece together LF with Gordon/Larnach/Martin/Castro for 2-3 months until Lee might be ready.

$10M of Max’s salary goes a long way in signing a pitcher!

If they are going to move anyone it should probably be a trade of Carlos Correa to a large market team. Keep Lewis and Lee in the infield where they are most valuable. Lewis in LF loses 1 WAR per season in value.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

7 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Turning down the qualifying offer, to me, would be crazy for Max. Almost as bad as offering it to a 32 year old, with OF guys in the Wings. If he hits .275 or better with 22 HR he probably gets an offer from the Twins for a couple years at $15-$16M/yr. 

If he hits .275 average or better his stats and WAR will be off the charts.  That is a top 15 outfielder with his defense and power.  4-5 years at between in the $80 to $100 million range is likely what he would get.   

[JD-TWINS]

1 minute ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

If he hits .275 average or better his stats and WAR will be off the charts.  That is a top 15 outfielder with his defense and power.  4-5 years at between in the $80 to $100 million range is likely what he would get.   

Just saw that on Athletic’s “All-underrated Team” that Max is in RF & Jeffers is behind the plate……….view from a theoretical Outside Source. Nice to see - fingers crossed.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 minute ago, JD-TWINS said:

Just saw that on Athletic’s “All-underrated Team” that Max is in RF & Jeffers is behind the plate……….view from a theoretical Outside Source. Nice to see - fingers crossed.

All I know is he was over a 4 WAR player . . .  in just the second half.  Had a negative war the first half.  He had a .260 average over the entire year and was a 2.9 War.   If he is a .275 BA he is likely a 4-5 WAR.  If he hits .300 like he did the 2nd half of the season he is an 8 WAR player.  An 8 war player is not accepting a qualifying offer.  A 5 war player is not accepting a qualifying offer.   

[tarheeltwinsfan]

3 hours ago, Mark G said:

It appears that the Twins have morphed into a team that values power over contact, and OPS and slugging percentage over average and RBI's; not to mention above average defense.  How does Max not fit that bill?  And at 31 (I prefer to look at it as only 31), what would be the downside of a 3 year 45 mil contract with offensive number bonuses if he produces (maybe Buxton esc type incentives)?  Or, if he would go for it, a two year 24-34 mil contract with team options for a year or two out from there?  I just sense that Max is not finished and has a few good years left in him; I would wonder why they weren't spent here if they just let him play out the year and go somewhere else.  Either trade him while he has value, which is now, or extend him before he increases his bargaining power as I suspect he might.  Whatever lies behind door number 3 doesn't look as enticing, at least to me.  

Max Kepler may be a player who plays better when he has a pending contract year. If so, I would not extend him more than 1 year. Max Kepler is an enigma to me. I am curious as to what motivates him. 

[Nashvilletwin]

12 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If they are going to move anyone it should probably be a trade of Carlos Correa to a large market team. Keep Lewis and Lee in the infield where they are most valuable. Lewis in LF loses 1 WAR per season in value.

Careful, you’ve just touched the third rail. You might be better off saying you want to cut social security. Hahaha.

I’ve written similar things before on the TD and it tends to rile up our fellow TDers.  The Production/$ Spent value ratio is a real thing to a budget conscious small/medium sized market team. Here’s hoping CC improves his ratio this season. Anyway, such a move is off the table for ‘24 (and possibly beyond/forever given his salary and no trade clause).

[chpettit19]

I don't think we see a Kepler extension before the season. Emma is going to start using up options this year and they're going to give him every chance to earn an MLB spot the next couple seasons. Not to mention Martin, Gordon, Larnach, and even Kirilloff depending on how all the young guys pan out. I'd expect the Twins to let the season play out and see what those guys do to see if they believe they can fill the role internally for 2025 and beyond. It most certainly puts them in a tough spot after the year if nobody else shows they're a good cOF option for 2025, but I don't think they're going to lock themselves into Kepler before the year. Unless it's on a deal that doesn't include a raise of any kind, but I'm not sure why he'd sign a deal like that.

[rationalfan]

Good article.  My initial thought was "click bait!" but it was a good thought experiment on the current state and future direction of the team.  There is a current dearth of reliable options in the outfield (Buxton frequently injured and takes time to find his groove each time he returns, Wallner needs to show how he responds to inevitable change in pitching he will see due to scouting his rookie season, Larnach hasn't yet shown he can stay at major league level, Gordon hasn't shown he is worth investing in long-term).  3 of the top 4 prospects, all listed as MLB Top 100, are outfielders though Jenkins is really young and therefore a few years away.

The other good aspect of the article is diving more deeply into Kepler since most of the time we fans have a visceral reaction of "why haven't we traded him yet!?!" or "he's underappreciated".  I think the FO can be happy that they picked up his options - he was key to the second half surge last year and is needed this year.  I don't see them pushing their luck with a 3 year extension.  One particular area of concern for me is that Baseball Savant link showed his success last year was due to being more aggressive early in the count and crushing fastballs.  I expect scouting leading to him getting fewer fastballs - more pitching in reverse with more breaking pitches and fewer strikes early in the count.  It would be great if he handled that, but considering he's only had a couple of great hitting stretches in his career, I'm not counting on that.  That being said, if he is hitting in May like he did last summer, they may offer him the extension, but at that point does he play it out for the best deal he can as a FA next off-season?  Probably.

[CRF]

My armchair opinion is...extending Kep at this point would be a mistake. We all know that he had a pretty good 2019 season, and that he had a good second half of last season. Other than that, he really hasn't done a whole lot at the plate. Average at best. A lot of inconsistency. At times, he's been down right brutal with his AB's. There's no doubt he's a good defensive outfielder. I just don't like the idea of spending to keep him, if we're going to get more of the same inconsistency with his hitting. 

[DJL44]

Everyone is wondering about his bat going forward. I am unsure how long he can sustain his defense. After age 30 a player's defense can slide pretty quickly.

[PatPfund]

Not a bad thing to think about , but it is too early to really consider. Beltré had a great season, Max had three months, and the lows (as noted) were pretty brutal. By mid-season, Max should have given some indication as to whether he had a hot second half, or he really figured something out. You'd also have another half season of data on Wallner, and to a lesser extent, Larnach and upper minors prospect progress. (Because also unlike Beltré in Boston, Max is under contract for the coming season.)

Use the time to make the options clearer.

[Mike Sixel]

No. If he's the player he was in teh 2nd half (and he's betting on it), it's over 25 million a year. If he's not that guy, I don't think they can afford to pay him, CC, Buxton, Lopez and add anyone new next year (or at the break this year). This team needs a front end type starter, why they would spend real money on an OF that is over 30 given their self imposed constraints seems odd to me. 

[SteveLV]

Assuming he will not justify a QO next off-season (and I would guestimate he has about a 25% chance of having a season so strong he would get a QO), the only logical moves for the Twins are to either trade him or extend him.

To allow him to play out his current deal and let him walk after the season with no compensation would be foolish.

However, they can always wait until the Trade Deadline.

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, DJL44 said:

If they are going to move anyone it should probably be a trade of Carlos Correa to a large market team. Keep Lewis and Lee in the infield where they are most valuable. Lewis in LF loses 1 WAR per season in value.

Not too many trades for a $35M SS with 5 years left on contract, coming off his worst season at the plate. SF & Mets already turned him away & nobody outbid the Twins just 12 months ago when he hit .290 the previous season……..He’s all ours!

IMO, Lewis goes to 1B  & Kirilloff to LF so Lee can play 3B ……OR Lewis goes to LF & Kirilloff stays at 1B. Lee-Lewis-Kirilloff-Julien all need to be in line-up by the Playoffs or worst case by Opening Day ‘25. Gotta assume either Buxton or Santana will be slated at DH this season, so that’s probably not an open slot for those 4 guys.

Dont understand the WAR concern, if the guy isn’t in the line-up regularly, regardless of where he plays, his WAR isn’t budging. So, either we play the best guys to maximize offensive WAR for all individuals concerned and live with whoever gets the Defensive WAR credit…………it’s about scoring more runs than opponents and winning games, not maximizing a specific player’s WAR & associated value.

[Dlee]

he will play great in the beginning and traded at the deadline for some noodles.

 

[joemama]

I was totally ready to move on from Kepler last June, when the switch was flipped and he took off. From the various articles I read (mainly DHP on MLB and Hayes & Gleeman at The Athletic), I recall that Max attributed the change to two things - better health and better player-to-player teamwork/communication on what they were seeing in the batter's box. And that second component was driven by a players-only meeting in mid June if I recall.

Extending for 2-3 years is worthwhile if the Brass thinks he can be close to what he averaged for '23 and an extension can be done for $10-13mm/year. Our near-term OF prospects don't look great right now - Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Jenkins, Winoker, and Chourio are all under 21 years old. Larnach and Kiersey are "here" age-wise but haven't shown enough.

[Mike Sixel]

33 minutes ago, joemama said:

I was totally ready to move on from Kepler last June, when the switch was flipped and he took off. From the various articles I read (mainly DHP on MLB and Hayes & Gleeman at The Athletic), I recall that Max attributed the change to two things - better health and better player-to-player teamwork/communication on what they were seeing in the batter's box. And that second component was driven by a players-only meeting in mid June if I recall.

Extending for 2-3 years is worthwhile if the Brass thinks he can be close to what he averaged for '23 and an extension can be done for $10-13mm/year. Our near-term OF prospects don't look great right now - Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Jenkins, Winoker, and Chourio are all under 21 years old. Larnach and Kiersey are "here" age-wise but haven't shown enough.

If he's as good as second half last year, he's worth 25 million per year....

[DocBauer]

Kind of reverse order here.

1] I do think there remains a chance Lewis goes to the OF at some point. I'd think LF as he has the speed to cover it, more than enough arm for the OF. Lee could be a great 3B, but so can Lewis be. I don't think anyone wants Lewis at 2B...though he'd be great...because of a pair of knee surgeries. Too much chance of hard contact there. No reason Lee can't be a great 2B. And he and/or Lewis will be able to cover SS, along with Castro, so that's why Farmer is probably gone after 2024 despite having an option built in to his deal.

2] I'm also in the camp to not give up on Larnach just yet. Some guys just take longer to figure things out. I've watched a ton of him in the OF, and I know some are down on his defense and I don't know why. He's not fast, but he's not slow either. And he has a really good arm. Honestly, were I a team in trade talks with the Twins and needed OF and LH power, I'd be very intrigued by acquiring him. Solid defense, good power, not immune to BB, even if he needed to be sat against LH SP, he'd still start 3/4 of games, give or take some. Even if he hit .230 ish with a decent BB rate, he'd probably crank 30 doubles and high teens, low 20's HR numbers. Still not sure why teams like Seattle and Miami aren't interested. I'm just sure his opportunity to get 400-450 AB is going to come with the Twins.

NOW, on to Kepler.

Since he was signed as a 16yo...not drafted...I've been a huge fan and follower. I've ALWAYS stated that despite his talent and milb numbers, he was behind a lot of state side kids for various reasons. I've always thought there was MORE to tap in to his potential. And then 2019 happened and I thought FINALLY, we're going to see what he can really do! And then we got 2 and 1/2 years of utter disappointment for someone so talented.

Even as a hopeful fan of his, I was ready to cut bait and move on in 2023 because I'd seen enough. Even his defense suddenly suffered because he wasn't having fun, and he was pressing for sure. 

But something FINALLY clicked mid season. (Remember I always thought he was behind in total development). He FINALLY seemed to realize he didn't have to be a "perfect" hitter. He FINALLY realized that his natural swing and power could produce good results if he just hit the DAMN BALL HARD and see what would happen, even as his K% went up. Shift or changes in the shift be damned. 

BRIEF INTERUPTION: The Twins hitting philosophy is NOT swing from your heals for HR and damn the torpedoes and K's! Their general philosophy is almost EXACTLY the Julien approach is swing hard at pitches you like, and work the count. Get a single, double, HR, a BB when you work the count, but a K is OK as just another out when you produce all the other good stuff.  Anyone even listening to understand how this approach works?

Kepler increased his K's, but produced the 2nd best numbers of his career doing so. And he ended up with a .260 AVG, still respectful .332 OBP, 484 SLG, and .816 OPS. His OPS+ was 121.

Imagine if he could have done that for a full season instead of half a season.

I absolutely don't expect Max to do that for a whole season. But it does tell me he FINALLY tapped in to his natural talent and an "I don't give a F" attitude where he realized he was trying to hard to be perfect. Actually, it's a lot like how Miranda did the same thing as a prospect in 2021 and his 2022 debut. But I don't want to digress.

The OF reality of the Twins system is LOADED at this point with talent. E Rodriguez, J Rodriguez, Mercedes, Rosario, the newly acquired Gonzalez, Jenkins, and maybe Winokur, and there are others. There's even some non 40 man guys like Helman and Keirsey who might be solid pieces if nothing else. 

But the problem is the best prospects are all 21/20 in age coming in to 2024. Even if they are all healthy and follow a normal projection path, or HOPEFULLY exceed it...hope like crazy they do...do we really expect E Rodriguez is going to blow by every level and be ready in 2025? Same with Rosario and Gonzalez and J Rodriguez and Mercedes. 

IF, the Twins could move Kepler In a deal still to add a SP of quality I can see a way to make the OF and lineup work well if they sign another RH bat. Otherwise, I just don't see Kepler moving now.

I actually believe, with some regression because his 2nd half was so crazy good, that Kepler FINALLY figured it out. So I would be on board with an extension of 2yrs with a buyout or option. I'd think 2yrs and $15M per maybe for 2yrs? There is a risk he slumps back to his old approach. But there's also a chance he's FULLY embraced his new approach and is worth even more going forward. 

I'd offer something like that because I really do think he's one of those guys who finally figured it out!! And I do think he'd like to remain a Twin. And a guaranteed 30M would be a life changing event in his life. 

But I'm not  sure I wouldn't wait for ST and the early part of the season to see who the REAL  Kepler is.

[dxpavelka]

23 hours ago, miracleb said:

I might be in the minority......but I still have confidence in giving Larnach 450 at bats this year.....

We can't break the strikeout record without him.

[Thebigalguy]

The Twins can go either way and make a good argument for doing so. Certainly keeping him this year makes sense, given the alternatives and his stellar second half last year. If he sustains last year's performance in the second half deep into June, a modest extension makes sense. Kepler doesn't seem to be one of those guys who needs top dollar to feel worthy. His parents, as I recall, were ballet dancers, not money mad CEOs. His international perspective is a breath of fresh air even if he tends to be close-mouthed. His defense is still stellar. A two or three year extension, as you suggest, is good economics and good baseball. 

[HoskenPowell]

He spent last winter sitting around in Paris with his gal......not doing anything to prepare for the year.  Then he has what can only be described as a HORRIBLE first half of the season.

 

If he prepared like a professional I'd possibly think of a incentive laden extension.   Until he becomes a pros pro , no !

[Riverbrian]

I can't offer him an extension because I cut him back in June. 

[Major League Ready]

16 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Kind of reverse order here.

1] I do think there remains a chance Lewis goes to the OF at some point. I'd think LF as he has the speed to cover it, more than enough arm for the OF. Lee could be a great 3B, but so can Lewis be. I don't think anyone wants Lewis at 2B...though he'd be great...because of a pair of knee surgeries. Too much chance of hard contact there. No reason Lee can't be a great 2B. And he and/or Lewis will be able to cover SS, along with Castro, so that's why Farmer is probably gone after 2024 despite having an option built in to his deal.

2] I'm also in the camp to not give up on Larnach just yet. Some guys just take longer to figure things out. I've watched a ton of him in the OF, and I know some are down on his defense and I don't know why. He's not fast, but he's not slow either. And he has a really good arm. Honestly, were I a team in trade talks with the Twins and needed OF and LH power, I'd be very intrigued by acquiring him. Solid defense, good power, not immune to BB, even if he needed to be sat against LH SP, he'd still start 3/4 of games, give or take some. Even if he hit .230 ish with a decent BB rate, he'd probably crank 30 doubles and high teens, low 20's HR numbers. Still not sure why teams like Seattle and Miami aren't interested. I'm just sure his opportunity to get 400-450 AB is going to come with the Twins.

NOW, on to Kepler.

Since he was signed as a 16yo...not drafted...I've been a huge fan and follower. I've ALWAYS stated that despite his talent and milb numbers, he was behind a lot of state side kids for various reasons. I've always thought there was MORE to tap in to his potential. And then 2019 happened and I thought FINALLY, we're going to see what he can really do! And then we got 2 and 1/2 years of utter disappointment for someone so talented.

Even as a hopeful fan of his, I was ready to cut bait and move on in 2023 because I'd seen enough. Even his defense suddenly suffered because he wasn't having fun, and he was pressing for sure. 

But something FINALLY clicked mid season. (Remember I always thought he was behind in total development). He FINALLY seemed to realize he didn't have to be a "perfect" hitter. He FINALLY realized that his natural swing and power could produce good results if he just hit the DAMN BALL HARD and see what would happen, even as his K% went up. Shift or changes in the shift be damned. 

BRIEF INTERUPTION: The Twins hitting philosophy is NOT swing from your heals for HR and damn the torpedoes and K's! Their general philosophy is almost EXACTLY the Julien approach is swing hard at pitches you like, and work the count. Get a single, double, HR, a BB when you work the count, but a K is OK as just another out when you produce all the other good stuff.  Anyone even listening to understand how this approach works?

Kepler increased his K's, but produced the 2nd best numbers of his career doing so. And he ended up with a .260 AVG, still respectful .332 OBP, 484 SLG, and .816 OPS. His OPS+ was 121.

Imagine if he could have done that for a full season instead of half a season.

I absolutely don't expect Max to do that for a whole season. But it does tell me he FINALLY tapped in to his natural talent and an "I don't give a F" attitude where he realized he was trying to hard to be perfect. Actually, it's a lot like how Miranda did the same thing as a prospect in 2021 and his 2022 debut. But I don't want to digress.

The OF reality of the Twins system is LOADED at this point with talent. E Rodriguez, J Rodriguez, Mercedes, Rosario, the newly acquired Gonzalez, Jenkins, and maybe Winokur, and there are others. There's even some non 40 man guys like Helman and Keirsey who might be solid pieces if nothing else. 

But the problem is the best prospects are all 21/20 in age coming in to 2024. Even if they are all healthy and follow a normal projection path, or HOPEFULLY exceed it...hope like crazy they do...do we really expect E Rodriguez is going to blow by every level and be ready in 2025? Same with Rosario and Gonzalez and J Rodriguez and Mercedes. 

IF, the Twins could move Kepler In a deal still to add a SP of quality I can see a way to make the OF and lineup work well if they sign another RH bat. Otherwise, I just don't see Kepler moving now.

I actually believe, with some regression because his 2nd half was so crazy good, that Kepler FINALLY figured it out. So I would be on board with an extension of 2yrs with a buyout or option. I'd think 2yrs and $15M per maybe for 2yrs? There is a risk he slumps back to his old approach. But there's also a chance he's FULLY embraced his new approach and is worth even more going forward. 

I'd offer something like that because I really do think he's one of those guys who finally figured it out!! And I do think he'd like to remain a Twin. And a guaranteed 30M would be a life changing event in his life. 

But I'm not  sure I wouldn't wait for ST and the early part of the season to see who the REAL  Kepler is.

If Lewis were to go to the outfield it would negate the need to push any of the other prospects.  Lee will probably be ready  soon enough and the IF would be set.  Wallner and Lewis would be the starting corner OFers.  It becomes really interesting when these other OF prospects start knocking at the door.

[RpR]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I can't offer him an extension because I cut him back in June. 

No problem because I signed Gallo to take his place.