Can Byron Buxton Finish His Career Like Adrian Beltré?

[Cody Christie]

Adrian Beltré took a unique path to being a first-ballot Hall of Famer by building his Cooperstown case in his 30s. Can Byron Buxton follow in his footsteps?

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Last week, Twins fans were rightly focused on Joe Mauer as he narrowly made the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. Joining Mauer in the Class of 2024 is another first-ballot selection, Adrian Beltre. No baseball player follows a precise path to being enshrined in Cooperstown, but Beltré’s was unique compared to others because he wasn’t headed to the Hall of Fame as he reached his 30s. Instead, a late-career surge put him among the best third basemen in baseball history. 

Manny Randhawa wrote at MLB.com about seven players who could see a late-career surge, like Beltré, to make the Hall of Fame. One current Twins player, Carlos Correa, made his list because he is entering his age-29 season and has already built a strong resume. I recently wrote about Correa and what he’d need to do to get back on track for the Hall of Fame. Another player on the Twins turned 30 this winter, and a return greatness could match what Adrian Beltré accomplished later in his career. 

Age Comparison
Beltré through age-29 season: .271/.327/.459 (107 OPS+); 242 HR, 0 All-Star Appearances, 2 Gold Gloves
Buxton through age-29 season: .239/.300/.468 (106 OPS+), 115 HR, 1 All-Star Appearance, 1 Gold Glove
Beltré debuted with the Dodgers as a 19-year-old after being ranked as one of baseball’s best prospects. His early career was unremarkable before a breakout season in 2004 at age 25, his final year before reaching free agency. In that campaign, he hit .334/.388/.629 (1.017) with 48 home runs, 32 doubles, and 121 RBI. He’d finish a distant second to Barry Bonds for the NL MVP. Following the season, he signed a five-year deal to join the Mariners, where he struggled to replicate his MVP-caliber season. Through his age-29 season, he had been able to stay on the field consistently, but there were inconsistencies in his performance. 

Buxton debuted at age 21 after being touted as baseball’s top prospect because of his five-tool potential. Injuries and an inconsistent offensive approach marred his time in his 20s. Early in his career, coaches tried to get him to be a prototypical leadoff hitter by slapping or bunting the ball and using his speed to reach base. This approach was incorrect, and the Twins eventually figured this out. Buxton had a four-season stretch from 2019-2022, where he posted a 136 OPS+ but averaged 70 games per season. He showcased short bursts of his full potential, but injuries haven’t allowed him to play at a Hall of Fame level. 

Peaking In His 30s
Beltré went on a stretch in his 30s that few others will match. For nine seasons, he hit .307/.358/.514 (.872) with a 130 OPS+, averaging 32 doubles and 25 home runs per season. He accomplished this while being selected to four All-Star Games, being a perennial top-10 finisher for the MVP, and playing Gold Glove-caliber defense at third base. Beltré was a workhorse throughout his career, with only one season (2017) where he played fewer than 100 games. Overall, there was a chance he could continue playing into his 40s, but Beltré decided to call it a career. 

Buxton turned 30 in December, and there is little chance of him landing in Cooperstown, but he has potential for a late-career surge. Injuries have been the biggest hindrance to Buxton’s overall performance, and he seems to be in a good place heading into the 2024 season. At TwinsFest over the weekend, he declared, “I’m back,” when asked about a return to center field. Minnesota plans to have Buxton start around 80 games in center, with his remaining time coming at DH or used as rest days. He has played over 92 games in one big-league season, so this is an aggressive plan to get the most from one of the team’s stars.

Beltré was a unicorn that seemed to get better with age. Buxton has improved throughout his career, but his inability to stay healthy has kept him from reaching his full potential. What are realistic expectations for Buxton in his 30s? Can he regularly play in center field? Will he average more than 100 games per season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

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[Doctor Gast]

I wish that you could turn on a switch so that Buxton could be healthy & have that HOF career that he deserves. With Paparesta there is hope but at this point, it's hard to believe. But I'm all for it. Go Buck!

[terrydactyls]

Whenever I read another story about what Buxton might do in 2024 and beyond, I hear the Everly Brothers singing "All I gotta do is dream, dream, dream."

[Gamblerssoftball]

Byron seems to have only one speed, which is wide open. But, he could still be a marvelous player if he throttled back to 85% or so. By that I mean, no crashing into walls or headlong dives in the gaps. Now, what I'm talking about would barely be noticed, because it is such a slight reduction in effort, but it would be definitely smarter. He needs to find a way to STAY ON THE FIELD.  His production will be there, if he's fully healthy. Time and age should finally have brought him there. At least, that's my hope for him. You know how much he wants it, too!

[mikelink45]

I really can't think about Buxton and the Hall of Fame. I just want to think about Buxton putting in a few good years in the twins. Outfield. If he does that I'll be happy. 

[awmonahan]

He seems like a good guy, with all the ability in the world. I'd be happy if it worked out like you say, but it would be startling if he could strong together a decade of healthy, productive seasons after what his body has already been through. 

[gman]

I would like to see Buxton actually have some good years in a Twins uniform. In reality I think we'll still be hearing about well if he just stays healthy he'll be a n MVP. I think the fact that he can't stay healthy will continue to force the Twins into fill ins with the Celestino's and Gordons.

[Karbo]

35 minutes ago, Gamblerssoftball said:

Byron seems to have only one speed, which is wide open. But, he could still be a marvelous player if he throttled back to 85% or so. By that I mean, no crashing into walls or headlong dives in the gaps. Now, what I'm talking about would barely be noticed, because it is such a slight reduction in effort, but it would be definitely smarter. He needs to find a way to STAY ON THE FIELD.  His production will be there, if he's fully healthy. Time and age should finally have brought him there. At least, that's my hope for him. You know how much he wants it, too!

I get what you're saying, but I don't know that an athlete like Buxton can throttle back. All his life he has probably gone all in, 100%. Kind of  like trying to teach an old dog new tricks!

[akmanak]

If he could actually stay healthy for longer than 1/4 season he might have a chance to get player of the week. 

[Fatbat]

It seems like he understands that he has to stay on the field. Maybe maturity is finally catching up to him? At this point, with all the disappointment as fans, we just need to enjoy every inning, every at bat and see where his career ends.  As unlikely as it seems, it may end a decade from now after we witness some amazing performances.  On the flip side, he might be retiring soon.  I would bet that he will still be playing at a high level years from now. 

[strumdatjag]

Former Vikings Coach Bud Grant (RIP) noted the importance of both ABILITY and DURABILITY.    Buxton won’t have any chance to be HOF caliber unless he can have both.  Meanwhile, the clock is ticking. 

[stringer bell]

It doesn't happen often that a player is better and healthier in his thirties than his twenties, but we can dream.

I'm reasonably optimistic that the knee won't be a major issue going forward, but he's had just about every other injury as well. Another long-term issue seemed to be his hip. I don't know if that has been resolved. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Honestly he could stay healthy,  my concern would be is the following.  Adrian is a much better contact hitter than Buxton.  To me buxton would have to improve his contact.  Right now just too much swing and miss.  

[darin617]

Are we the Dodgers or Mariners in the part of this topic? I would presume LA since we are Buxton's original team. 

So what team will become Buxton's Ranger's then? 

[Guest]

Buxton starting 100+ games in center healthy would make an enormous difference for the Twins this year.

[strumdatjag]

11 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

Buxton starting 100+ games in center healthy would make an enormous difference for the Twins this year.

But the article here says the goal is 80 games in CF.   Based on the past, that sounds like a ceiling not a floor. 

[dberthia]

I want to believe, but I won't until I actually see it. Seems like a good guy, but at some point you have to produce. If he can't play in the field or hit better than .220 as a DH, there's really no spot for him.

[DocBauer]

It's actually quite possible that the knee surgery he had before 2023 really helped fix that knee. It's actually quite possible that the doctors errored too much on caution and just should have removed the plica from the start, since we're told he didn't really need it. So it's entirely possible that the removal of the plica now really does remove so much of the pain and tendonitis he's suffered through. That could absolutely mean 80 games in CF, and another 20-30 as a DH or PH. That would be huge!

Unfortunately, it's also possible his knee is just a wreck and is never going to be right, no matter how optimistic Buxton and the Twins are, or we want to be. 

I think we're going to know a lot about his future in 2024. If he really can play those 80 games in CF and however many others as a DH and...more or less...get through the season, it could actually mean he's got a good number of years to be available and productive for the Twins.

But the only HOF Buxton will ever be in is the Twins. Just too much missed time in his career at this point, and not enough time to build the kind of resume he would need.

[chinmusic]

HOF is out of reach for Buxton.  Perhaps he can win the MVP that Beltre never did.

[tony&rodney]

First read this title as "Can Byron Buxton finish his career?"

Then I read the article and scrolled back up to reread the title. Buck is sure an exciting player when healthy. Nobody has been more disappointed than Byron himself, so I sure hope he can complete his contract. It would be wonderful to have Buxton patrol CF for a full season just once.

[old nurse]

By his 30th birthday Beltré had already amassed close to 40 WAR. He was not a late bloomer, but he did have an 8 year stretch of consistency

Perhaps if there was an oft injured player that became a consistently healthy player you could ask if Buxton could e that guy. 

[High heat]

Simply put No he can't!!!  His greatest asset has been his speed yet he has never even put up remotely decent SB #s.  That skill is quickly diminishing!

Buxton has never had good plate disabling which as bat speed diminishes effects his effectiveness.
 

IF he gets healthy and returns to an elite defender how many gold glove years does he have left in CF.  Those skill don’t age well like a corner IF.  
 

I just hoping for a decent season from him this year where he can play CF and contribute atleast part time.

[Heiny]

Ok, here is my prediction!  Bucky plays 100 games of stellar cf this year with 40 more games as DH.  Bats .280 with 40 HR and .980 OPS and scores 120 runs and win MVP.  Remember, you heard it here first.

[Paul Walerius]

9 hours ago, Gamblerssoftball said:

Byron seems to have only one speed, which is wide open. But, he could still be a marvelous player if he throttled back to 85% or so. By that I mean, no crashing into walls or headlong dives in the gaps. Now, what I'm talking about would barely be noticed, because it is such a slight reduction in effort, but it would be definitely smarter. He needs to find a way to STAY ON THE FIELD.  His production will be there, if he's fully healthy. Time and age should finally have brought him there. At least, that's my hope for him. You know how much he wants it, too!

I understand what you are saying but when was the last time he was out an extended amount because he slammed into the wall?

[jkcarew]

Wow. Where to begin.

Through age 29, Beltre had played about 1550 games. Buxton, 670. Beltre played another nearly 1400 games after age 30. 
 

Can Buxton improve on his career 106 OPS+ in his 30’s? Yes. It’s not a high bar. But I’d be careful assuming that the mediocre offensive results to date are 100%..or even mostly…attributable to playing with injuries. He’s never been a guy who controls the zone, and the result has been wildly inconsistent results regardless of injury status.

Any offensive improvement will come with significantly less defensive value than he provided in his 20’s….and it will come across…what?….MAYBE 600 games?? He’s averaged 73 games per season when playing the field. Played 85 games last season as a full time DH.

I’d be absolutely thrilled with 15-20 WAR over the last 5 years of his current contract. Yet, 20 is pretty unlikely…and it wouldn’t get him near the HALL…fringe shot at Twins HOF, maybe.

[notoriousgod71]

Buxton can't stay healthy when all he does is DH. he doesn't hit enough to be a full time DH.

He's just one of countless "what could have beens".

[Doctor Wu]

Good article and a very interesting idea to make a comparison with Beltre. I don't think anyone would have thought that Beltre had even a remote shot at the HOF going into his age-30 season. He didn't have the constant injury woes of Buxton, but he was mainly a glove-first player that was inconsistent at the plate, and bounced around with a few teams. But man, he sure turned that around for the rest of his 30s! Could Buxton do the same? Hmm ... maybe. Most of us are members of the of "I'll believe it when I see it" idea of Buxton being able to handle center field for a full season ... all while staying healthy and hitting above the Mendoza line. It's not impossible, but at this juncture I'd bet against if happening. Which makes me sad. I want Buck to succeed so much, but it's hard to maintain the hope each season. 

[JD-TWINS]

20 hours ago, strumdatjag said:

But the article here says the goal is 80 games in CF.   Based on the past, that sounds like a ceiling not a floor. 

So, my prediction/hope, which means nothing, is 40-45 starts in CF and 70 starts at DH. 2 starts per week typical in CF & 1 start for a handful of weeks. Equates to 70% of games started for a guy who averages 46% of games. A huge jump and potential impact on the Team’s offense. If he can hit his career average of .239, he’ll hit 25 HR & 25 doubles without a problem in only 450-480 AB’s.  Going into the Playoffs with him at a healthy level and able to start 50% of the time in CF & DH other games as it makes sense, that would be interesting.

TWINS have had expectations, hopes of Byron playing CF for 125-140 games a number of years (140 games in 2017)……..never passed 100 games total but once. Expecting 80 starts in CF is nice to say but realistically, 1/2 that would be fine if he can contribute in the box 80 additional games at DH.

[Mydaughterhastwins]

23 hours ago, Karbo said:

I get what you're saying, but I don't know that an athlete like Buxton can throttle back. All his life he has probably gone all in, 100%. Kind of  like trying to teach an old dog new tricks!

The ability to adapt is the mark of a true athlete.  

[Gamblerssoftball]

13 hours ago, Paul Walerius said:

I understand what you are saying but when was the last time he was out an extended amount because he slammed into the wall?

Maybe not directly, but it adds to the trauma that his body has to try to overcome. Can he throttle it back and still be an elite outfielder? Yes. Will he? Not if he's feeling 100%. Wouldn't that be fun to see!