Do The Twins Need Bullpen Help?

[Cody Pirkl]

With Emilio Pagán leaving for Cincinnati, the Twins still have a strong returning relief corps in 2024. In years past, they’ve spent very little on the bullpen. This winter, they may be justified in doing so again.

Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

 

This Twins front office has taken a few big swings on relief additions in their tenure and often whiffed. From Addison Reed to Jorge Lopez, it’s easy to see why the Twins may have developed a belief that bullpens aren’t worth majorly investing in. With a decline in payroll headed into 2024, we should expect them to show a good bit of restraint again. They would certainly be justified in doing so.

Many believed the Twins could have benefitted from one more high-leverage reliever headed in 2023. It never hurts, after all. The Twins had reason to believe the top end of their bullpen was a strength between Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Lopez. Of course, Griffin Jax piled up blown leads early, and Lopez was eventually DFAed. Luckily, Brock Stewart emerged from Triple-A, and Jax righted the ship down the stretch to still have a formidable top of the bullpen by season’s end.

 

 

This trio will return in 2024, assuming good health. Duran is likely the undisputed closer at this point. A case can be made to slot Stewart in as the setup man after he struck out nearly 36% of the hitters he faced, and Jax had a down season by his standards. Either way, this group combined for just over 155 innings in 2023 with a cumulative 3.1 Wins Above Replacement. It’s a back end of a bullpen many competitive teams would envy on paper.

Caleb Thielbar should be back as a high-leverage, left-handed reliever capable of facing both righties and lefties. The question, of course, is health with the 36-year-old after repeated oblique issues limited him to just over 30 innings. He still struck out over 36% of opposing hitters and posted a 3.23 ERA on the season. Emilio Pagán’s departure will be noteworthy, though it’s important to remember that while his numbers were great, he pitched almost solely in low leverage.

 

The problem at times last season was the middle relief group. The Twins cycled in several arms, hoping a few would stick, and it cost them some wins. Jovani Moran looked to build on a solid 2022 season and couldn’t do so. He’s now undergoing Tommy John surgery and is expected to miss all of 2024.

Jorge Alcala has never really put it all together, and he has health questions of his own. Players like Cole Sands just never did enough to stick around.

Luckily, down the stretch, the Twins finally gave Kody Funderburk a shot. In 12 innings, he allowed one run and stuck out over 40% of the hitters he faced. It’s a small sample, but the lefty has a history of retiring hitters from both sides of the plate while picking up a healthy amount of strikeouts.

 

There’s at least a tiny hope that a few other internal options emerge to fill the middle innings. Jordan Balazovic’s MLB debut was unsuccessful, but if he is fully prepared as a traditional one-inning reliever, he may rediscover the talent that once made him a top prospect. Josh Winder began throwing a two-seam fastball down the stretch that would hopefully solve the fastball woes that have held him back despite a solid secondary pitch mix.

The Twins are in a better spot with the bullpen than in recent years. There are plenty of red flags, both health and performance-wise, but that’s to be expected on any roster. We may see them add a reliever this winter; it’s never a bad idea. It may be likelier that whoever they bring in is more of a flier for a few million dollars or even a waiver claim.

The odds of the Twins bringing in a big-time arm for the back innings, at least at market price, are extremely low. With the foundation they have in place and the payroll space they’re working with, we may see them more or less stand pat. Unlike in some recent years, doing so would be more justified. Do you agree?

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I do expect a major league signing at some point in January or February. I’d also imagine a number of minor league signings. Should be a fun winter :)

[yeahyabetcha]

I think Varland should make the opening day bullpen.  Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Stewart, Varland, Funderburk, Balzovic, Winder isn’t horrible is it?

On a side note, given the current usage practice of the starters (5 or 6 innings), I wish they would extend the reliever more, If they are effective and efficient that night , try to get 2 or 3 innings out of them.  Instead of needing 4 or 5 of them to all be on that night.  

[old nurse]

Just like the team needs to have a 6/7/8 starter in St Paul, the teams needs available relievers. There will be minor league retreads signed, maybe a major league signing. Considering what Pagán got, the major league signing might not bring much enthusiasm from the crowd 

[DocBauer]

Yes, they need help. But it doesn't have to be a major, expensive signing, even assuming they had the $ to do it.

You can just about write all of Duran, Jax, Stewart, Thielbar, and Funderburk in ink. That's a pretty decent 5 to begin with. (Small sample size or not, really liked what I saw from Funderburk last year). 

I'd really like to hold off on Varland being in the pen for now. I'm sure he'd be great there, but I think he looks pretty good as a rotation arm as well, and I'd like to keep him there for now.

I don't expect anything special any longer from Winder or Balazovic. Sands was better than both, used oddly, and has a killer breaking ball. But if just ONE of them could take a step forward it would really help a lot. Same with Alcala. Last time he was fully healthy was the end of 2021 and he finished strong. Now that his velocity is back up in the high 90's, it would be awesome if he could finally reach his potential. 

I'm with Cory on them signing a veteran later, probably someone coming off a poor season with nice rebound potential. And they absolutely will bring in some arms on milb deals. Stewart was a find, and DeLeon looked like he might help before his arm blew out. I just want to be sure they don't get a good performance and then let them walk. Coulombe was solid for us, had a great camp last year, and the. We just let the Orioles take him. Hoffman had a nice camp as well and looked like a sure bet. He was cut and had a nice year for the Reds.

ONE of our various 40 man arms takes charge, we guess right on ONE solid veteran FA, the pen looks just fine.

[Brandon]

The pen needs very little at this point.  A free agent depth signing or reclamation project maybe two if Varland is in the rotation.  Would Raya be an option at some point next season?  He is only pitching 3-4 innings a start.  

[darin617]

It would be great if the Twins didn't have payroll issues.

I have always thought Duran would be used in the "Andrew Miller role"  come in and shut the opposing teams top hitters in the 6,7, or 8th to shut them down. That would mean they would need to find another closer.

Varland would be great if they could keep him in the pen. Not sure he has enough pitches to be an effective starter. He has surely looked good in the pen.

[Karbo]

Lots of red flags there. Which Jax shows up? Thielbar staying healthy as age creeps up? Stewart having a history of arm issues? Is Funderburk for real? Lots of questions. That said, if lucky with health, it should be above avg. I agree that a minor signing or a year "prove it" type contract will be made.

[darin617]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

Just like the team needs to have a 6/7/8 starter in St Paul, the teams needs available relievers. There will be minor league retreads signed, maybe a major league signing. Considering what Pagán got, the major league signing might not bring much enthusiasm from the crowd 

You can get lucky finding a pitcher in late January or early February. It wouldn't hurt to add some depth.

[Blyleven2011]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I do expect a major league signing at some point in January or February. I’d also imagine a number of minor league signings. Should be a fun winter :)

I wish they would get something done before Twins fest so us fans could have some enthusiasm to look forward to  ...

[mikelink45]

It seems like a no-brainer question - of course we need help

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, yeahyabetcha said:

I think Varland should make the opening day bullpen.  Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Stewart, Varland, Funderburk, Balzovic, Winder isn’t horrible is it?

On a side note, given the current usage practice of the starters (5 or 6 innings), I wish they would extend the reliever more, If they are effective and efficient that night , try to get 2 or 3 innings out of them.  Instead of needing 4 or 5 of them to all be on that night.  

Finally someone who talks my lingo. Eventhough our rotation has been stronger in '23, I believe they used long relief more often. Which helped to make the BP & rotation fresher & stronger entering the post season. Paddack should be limited in innings so I'd like Paddack/ Varland piggy-back duo. That means we need a frontline SP. I'd be careful w/ Thielbar's innings so that means more innings for long relief. I'd try to take as much pressure off the high leverage short relief  as possible. Besides Varland we have Headrick, SWR & Winder to see how they do. Hopefully we'll have the luxury to experiment. You never know who you can pickup off the wire either, maybe a starter you can convert to the BP. So IMO we really don't need to seek specically a BP arm.

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

It seems like a no-brainer question - of course we need help

You can never have enough good bullpen arms but I think the answer to the question is, not yet. We will be squeamish at points of the first half of the season in some spots but they will certainly get all the AAAA guys their chances to figure out who can do what. After that process they can know how aggressive they need to be.

The bullpen shouldn't matter much until the last couple of months and they will have similar options to last year. Varland is probably a postseason reliever unless he's a lights out starter and they can add at the deadline if no one pans out. 

This is a July question.

[High heat]

Hoping Canterino can come in healthy and contribute.  Maybe in an Andrew Miller role. 

Hoping Winder finds a way to carve out a role as well. 

But yes they need to add atleast one major league bullpen arm.  Lots of injuries and injury history to guys in the pen.

[MTV]

I currently see the bullpen like this: 

Varland as the Long Reliever

Alcala/Funderburk for the earlier innings

Thielbar/Stewart for the 7/8th

Jax as a HRP and Duran (obviously) as the closer

Another High-End reliever would help, but it looks like quality innings are what this team should go for. I think one signing/trade should be made, but nothing huge is necessary.

[Twins_Fan_For_Life]

If the Pagan 2 year/$16M contract is any indication of what the reliever market looks like this off-season, don't expect a Twins bullpen move of any significance. 

[arby58]

14 hours ago, darin617 said:

I have always thought Duran would be used in the "Andrew Miller role"  come in and shut the opposing teams top hitters in the 6,7, or 8th to shut them down. That would mean they would need to find another closer.

I'd say that was pretty much the model in 2023. Duran had 27 of their 38 saves, which is 71 percent. Jax had 4, Lopez 3, and several other pitchers 1 each.

[JD-TWINS]

What a difference a year makes! No Jorge Lopez & no Emilio Pagan (I know he helped us in ‘23) to worry about - FO provided relief for us.

My solution is more of a big move…….post it here every other day but get no comments one way or the other.

Trade Rodriguez - Festa - Sands - Gordon & Polanco to Milwaukee, with the assumption they then trade Polanco for prospects, for Devin Williams. All-Star closer & previously a set-up man. Still young & 2 years of control! $6.25M in ‘23.

Thielbar - Funderburk - Balazovic - Alcala

(Canterino - Winder as needed)

Jax - Stewart

Williams

Duran

Best bullpen in the game!!

Playoffs come & Varland moves into the 5th-6th inning guy and we’re dominant!

[saviking]

Very good article, Cody. Spot on. 

I expect the Twins to try and add a mid-inning reliever or two. Maybe as a throw-in on a Kepler or Polanco trade. 

An astute observation about Pagan doing well in low-leveraged situations. I've always thought his lack of mental toughness kept him from performing well in high-leverage situations. That said, I think he's come a long way last year. I would love to have him back for at a reasonable price to be in the same role but no way I would pay anything close to what he got. You know Cinncinati isn't paying him that much to be anything but one of their three top relievers and that's where he's at his worst. Still, I will root for him to succeed. 

[tony&rodney]

31 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

My solution is more of a big move…….post it here every other day but get no comments one way or the other.

Trade Rodriguez - Festa - Sands - Gordon & Polanco to Milwaukee, with the assumption they then trade Polanco for prospects, for Devin Williams. All-Star closer & previously a set-up man. Still young & 2 years of control! $6.25M in ‘23.

I, for one, appreciate your dedication to your idea of acquiring Devin Williams from Milwaukee. We can never be sure of whether Milwaukee is interested in moving on from their closer or what the Brewers would want in return for Williams if the club was open to a trade.

That said, I would not trade David Festa for Devin Williams, straight up. Emmanuel Rodriguez is off the table unless we are talking Logan Gilbert and Seattle is not looking for prospects. Em-Rod isn't appreciably  behind Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee in value (ignore BTV). 

Trades are difficult and everyone has ideas for improving their team. The trick is to guess how each team benefits, and that is why the trade of Arraez worked, despite the firestorm of anger it initially created here on Twins Daily. Others, may have different thoughts on your proposal which you have so patiently put forth on a daily basis. This is mine.

[JD-TWINS]

46 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I, for one, appreciate your dedication to your idea of acquiring Devin Williams from Milwaukee. We can never be sure of whether Milwaukee is interested in moving on from their closer or what the Brewers would want in return for Williams if the club was open to a trade.

That said, I would not trade David Festa for Devin Williams, straight up. Emmanuel Rodriguez is off the table unless we are talking Logan Gilbert and Seattle is not looking for prospects. Em-Rod isn't appreciably  behind Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee in value (ignore BTV). 

Trades are difficult and everyone has ideas for improving their team. The trick is to guess how each team benefits, and that is why the trade of Arraez worked, despite the firestorm of anger it initially created here on Twins Daily. Others, may have different thoughts on your proposal which you have so patiently put forth on a daily basis. This is mine.

Agreed - trying to choose the players to trade away is nearly impossible since there is no window into the minds of other GM’s.

My only pushback or alternative is justifying moving Rodriguez & why. With Martin (CF) coming, more than likely, at some point in ‘24 & Jenkins (CF) coming in all probability at some point in ‘26 & displacing whoever is there ………..to me, Rodriguez (CF) seems to be the biggest carrot we can afford to live without. An observation/opinion.

Personally, I really believe we are at a level to challenge for the AL pennant……..most here seem to be skeptical & pessimistic about the club. Going all out to set up our Pen & having it be a real strength, to me, is worthwhile.

Many more ways to accomplish things but, to me, Williams is a clear path to a bunch of success ……….helps as well, with pushing Varland back to starter depth, with clarity.

[Fatbat]

22 hours ago, Brandon said:

The pen needs very little at this point.  A free agent depth signing or reclamation project maybe two if Varland is in the rotation.  Would Raya be an option at some point next season?  He is only pitching 3-4 innings a start.  

I wouldn’t rule it out and I wouldn’t rule out him being an injury or August call up as a SP if he stretches out to 5-6 innings this year and his whip is around 1.1 

[KBJ1]

Kepler & Polanco have to be traded.

$20M money freed up. Yes we could use a #2 SP, but our most impactful signing should be a slugging right-handed LF like Gurriel.

Get a reliever and a pitching prospect for either Kepler or Polanco.

Roll with the SP's we have unless we can pull off some kind of trade. A deep bullpen will make up for SP deficiencies. 

 

[TwinsDr2021]

Well with the current 40 man they have 7 starters (Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Paddack, Varland, SWR and Headrick) so I don't think Varland can be counted on as a relief pitcher. They have 10 relief pitchers with at least 4 easily could be upgraded - Winder, Sands, Alcala, Balazovic. And three that could be upgraded on just to be pushed down the pecking order a bit. Jax Thielbar and Funderburk. One question mark - Canterino.

Which means they have 2 relief pitchers, Stewart, Duran.

So the answer to the question is absolutely they need help.

[Major League Ready]

18 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Well with the current 40 man they have 7 starters (Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Paddack, Varland, SWR and Headrick) so I don't think Varland can be counted on as a relief pitcher. They have 10 relief pitchers with at least 4 easily could be upgraded - Winder, Sands, Alcala, Balazovic. And three that could be upgraded on just to be pushed down the pecking order a bit. Jax Thielbar and Funderburk. One question mark - Canterino.

Which means they have 2 relief pitchers, Stewart, Duran.

So the answer to the question is absolutely they need help.

Perfectly reasonable take despite the persnickety response you got.  Looking at it in a slightly different way, we could say they have 5 guys for sure.  (Duran / Jax / Stewart / Thielbar / Funderburk)  Varland probably goes to the BP if they are able to land a quality SP and a depth guy.  I know Alcala has not been able to say healthy, but he is a pretty decent middle inning reliever that us optimists can hope finally has a healthy season.  I also believe Sands has what it takes to stick.  Canterino is a wild card.  

That leaves the other guys for depth.  Not ideal but not horrible.  My guess is they will look for the next Brock Stewart and the allocation of funds to the BP will be a byproduct of what they are able to do on the starting pitching side.

[TwinsDr2021]

7 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Perfectly reasonable take despite the persnickety response you got.  Looking at it in a slightly different way, we could say they have 5 guys for sure.  (Duran / Jax / Stewart / Thielbar / Funderburk)  Varland probably goes to the BP if they are able to land a quality SP and a depth guy.  I know Alcala has not been able to say healthy, but he is a pretty decent middle inning reliever that us optimists can hope finally has a healthy season.  I also believe Sands has what it takes to stick.  Canterino is a wild card.  

That leaves the other guys for depth.  Not ideal but not horrible.  My guess is they will look for the next Brock Stewart and the allocation of funds to the BP will be a byproduct of what they are able to do on the starting pitching side.

I don't disagree with your take. In all reality they don't have enough pitchers on the 40 (no team does). There are some pitchers on the Twins 40 man that are question marks to say the least. And IMO after watching what happened in 21, 22, 23 I think 23 was the best and that was the year they went with depth and as the current pitching staff is designed they don't have much of that. We have seen just about every young former starter struggle in the move to the pen (except Duran and maybe Jax, but lets be honest Jax isn't Duran) and maybe this is the year Alcala, Winder, and Sands figure it out but if they (and Funderburk) struggle again who is the solution? The good thing about relief pitchers is they can be moved up and down the pecking order,

It makes the pen so much better having a stewart basically take Jax's job and Jax take Pagan's job, and Pagan take Sands job for example then not.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I don't disagree with your take. In all reality they don't have enough pitchers on the 40 (no team does). There are some pitchers on the Twins 40 man that are question marks to say the least. And IMO after watching what happened in 21, 22, 23 I think 23 was the best and that was the year they went with depth and as the current pitching staff is designed they don't have much of that. We have seen just about every young former starter struggle in the move to the pen (except Duran and maybe Jax, but lets be honest Jax isn't Duran) and maybe this is the year Alcala, Winder, and Sands figure it out but if they (and Funderburk) struggle again who is the solution? The good thing about relief pitchers is they can be moved up and down the pecking order,

It makes the pen so much better having a stewart basically take Jax's job and Jax take Pagan's job, and Pagan take Sands job for example then not.

There are 4 open spots on the 40 man.  I believe we are going to see 3-4 pitchers added and a couple position players get traded.  So, the balance is probably going to shift.   Could we see a rule 5 player drafted on Thursday.  I kind of doubt it but so be it if a good prospect is available.  

[nicksaviking]

****Moderator Note****

Let's stay on topic and stay away from condescending responses and personal attacks.

[Danchat]

I think they need to add a couple relievers, at least one pretty good one. Losing Pagan, being iffy with Thielbar at his age, not sure Stewart can pick up back where he left off, Varland being needed for rotational depth, and Funderburk having little MLB experience is the basis for my thinking. They don't need to go nuts, but they have put themselves in bad spots in prior years with their lack of bullpen additions before.

Also, get Winder, Sands, and Canterino going as full-time relievers and see if they can offer you anything. Their days as starters are over.

[LewFordLives]

On 12/2/2023 at 4:53 PM, DocBauer said:

 

Stewart was a find, and DeLeon looked like he might help before his arm blew out. I just want to be sure they don't get a good performance and then let them walk. Coulombe was solid for us, had a great camp last year, and the. We just let the Orioles take him. Hoffman had a nice camp as well and looked like a sure bet. He was cut and had a nice year for the Reds.

As you alluded to, they seem to be able to find guys, but they let them slip through their fingers. Add Cano and Zach Littell to that list.  I never understood letting Coulombe get away.  When he wasn't on the IR, he pitched well for them.  It was a dumb decision at the time, and it has looked worse with age.