The Twins Can Make a Run in the Playoffs. Here's How.

[Nick Nelson]

Even after playing dead at the deadline, the Minnesota Twins remain heavy favorites to win the AL Central and reach the postseason for the first time since 2020.

Despite their clear flaws, the Twins are actually built for playoff success at a core level. As uninspiring as their play has often been, it's not hard to envision this team making a push come October, given the right breaks.

Image courtesy of Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

The MLB postseason gets underway in a little under two months. That's a long time in baseball terms. There are still many games to be played, many moments to be experienced, and many twists of fortune to be unraveled. 

The Twins were riding a high note with five straight wins before falling flat on Tuesday night in Detroit, but before that, things were ugly. 

Throughout the year they've maintained a gravitational pull toward the .500 mark. They stood pat at the trade deadline while simultaneously receiving grim injury news regarding two critical pieces (Brock Stewart and Alex Kirilloff). Their high likelihood of making the playoffs owes much more to the division they play in than the quality of their play. 

I'm not here to tell you those are good things. But these factors do not negate Minnesota's chances of winning a playoff game, series, or more. 

Here are some narratives that fans should be tracking over the final third of the season to gauge this club's true postseason mettle. If all or most of these things are clicking come October, this team will be worth believing in.

Offense finds a groove balancing aggressiveness and power.

It is accurate to say that the Twins are far too strikeout-prone and power-dependent as an offense, and that's hurt them throughout this regular season. It's also accurate to say that, generally speaking, these traits are more favorable in the postseason.

When you're facing high-end power pitchers almost exclusively, a run-scoring model focused on ambushing and striking with the long ball becomes more valuable, because that's how pretty much all teams have to score against these guys. Striking out a bunch ain't so out of the ordinary. You're likely not stringing together singles against Max Scherzer.

Mixing deep threats like Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner and Ryan Jeffers with dynamic offensive weapons like Edouard Julien and Royce Lewis would give the Twins a potentially potent attack for a short series. Meanwhile, Willi Castro would make for a fascinating postseason bench weapon. If the Twins can get guys like Kirilloff and Jorge Polanco healthy and on track, all the better.

Of course, there's one position player who supersedes all others in terms of pivotal playoff magnitude.

Carlos Correa finds a semblance of his classic form.

I'm not exactly optimistic about Correa's prospects of permanently shaking free from this season-long slump. But I've been known to be wrong before, and boy, would I love for that to be the case here. His first couple of games in Detroit have certainly been encouraging.

The shortstop looms large as a factor for October, because postseason accolades were among his biggest selling points as a top-tier free agent. Correa is one of the great playoff performers in major-league history, ranking sixth all-time in RBIs and No. 1 among active players. 

Correa has made roughly three times as many career postseason plate appearances as all other Twins combined. The 28-year-old is well acquainted with the biggest spotlight and he has thrived under it. That was undoubtedly a compelling draw for a team that hasn't made it to the World Series since before he was born, and hasn't won a postseason game since he was 10. 

In the first year of his $200 million contract with the Twins, Correa should have an opportunity to deliver on his rep and make good after a perpetually disappointing regular-season campaign.

Frontline starters keep pitching like frontline starters.

Good starting pitching is an essential ingredient for postseason success. This Twins rotation ranks among the best in franchise history, with no fewer than four playoff-caliber starters.

Leading the way are All-Stars Pablo López and Sonny Gray, who both rank among the top 10 in the majors in fWAR. Bailey Ober has a 3.21 ERA in 18 starts since joining the team from Triple-A. Kenta Maeda has a 2.47 ERA in eight starts since shaking off some residual elbow fatigue.

Joe Ryan is currently on the injured list after tanking while playing through a groin strain, but prior to that he had a 2.98 ERA in 15 starts.

The Twins will likely be at a match-up advantage in at least the second and third game of an ALDS series. If they make a deeper run, their depth of high-end starters only grows more valuable. But that depth needs to stay intact until then.

Back end of the bullpen stays healthy and strong.

Starters taking care of business only goes so far if the relievers can't hold up in the late innings. We saw this issue rise to the forefront in the Twins' most recent postseason appearance, in 2020. 

The current Minnesota bullpen is blessed with two of the best high-leverage relievers in the game, Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax. If they keep pitching the way they have, that's a massive advantage in October.

This points to a key challenge that manager Rocco Baldelli has been grappling with all year. Phil Miller wrote in the Star Tribune all the way back in early June that the Twins were being careful about not overusing Duran, knowing the risks posed by his injury history and ferocious delivery. 

Which is why Duran's post-break usage has been a bit alarming. He pitched back-to-backs only three times in the entire first half, but has already done so three times since the All-Star break, including pitching three straight days in mid-July. Meanwhile, the righty's performance on the mound has sagged, with a 6.39 ERA and .321 opponents' batting average since the beginning of July.

On the bright side, Duran has received a bit of a break lately, as he hasn't been needed since last Friday. Baldelli will need to emphasize getting him more of these breaks in the final weeks, putting the manager in a tough position, given that he also needs to secure the AL Central while lacking additional late-inning bullpen depth thanks to the front office's deadline dud.

Slumps are only slumps, and Duran's still hurling the ball in triple digits with a filthy breaking ball. Hopefully a bit of a respite helps him get back on track and the Twins can keep him strong into October, because he has the potential to be a massive postseason weapon. Same goes for Jax.

The big question then becomes whether the supporting cast – Caleb Thielbar, Emilio Pagan, Dylan Floro, etc. – has enough quality to fill the gaps and seal the deal.

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[Rod Carews Birthday]

Bravo!  I think this article does a great job at expressing why some of us are optimistic about this year's Twins team.  In many ways, their strengths play up a little bit more in short playoff series' than they do in the long slog that is the baseball season.  Good to great pitching combined with a little bit of timely (or streaky, or even lucky) hitting could carry them a long way.  All other things remaining the same, I would think that a little bit of increased offensive effectiveness would mean a great deal to their chances of post season success.  They have made it this far with the offense substantially underperforming, so I would take the over on the offense for the last third of the season. 

[strumdatjag]

You left out - if Max Kepler keeps up his current offensive output.  Add that to your string of “ifs” and  ——

[Blyleven2011]

The clear flaws ... 

Make contact or strikeout , I'm not buying it  ....

I've watched other teams collect consecutive hits and walks,  HBP , passed balls to score runs against our pitching  , we've seen how our offense was in 2019 - 20 playoffs  , swinging for the fences against elite pitching and we were eliminate ( skunked )  ...

The Twins don't just need homeruns , they just need to make contact and hit and hit to the opposite field to move runners  along and score ...

We got till October to work on it as I have seen some improvements from some of the batters  ....

 

 

[JD-TWINS]

Kirilloff & Lewis need to be healthy.

Wallner - Julien - Kepler - Jeffers - Castro need to continue to hit as they have been.

Ryan to the Pen - maybe with Varland in September? 12 arms in playoffs & only 4 starters needed.

CC - Polanco - Buxton need to be decent - not necessary to Star but gotta show up at an average level.

Game 3 & Game 4 our starter will match up well and we should be a draw with starters in first two games in a series.

Optimistic!!

[Vanimal46]

Wow, you’re right! If everyone and everything associated with the team is good, they could win a playoff series! 

[Cris E]

But that's how WS winners work these days: good players play well, some unexpected guy pulls a Lemke and hits .400 (or a Soler and hits a bunch of HR) and the pen steps up huge.  The Twins have pieces that have under-performed this season, but no one would be shocked if vets like Correa, Buxton, Polanco played well in the bright lights.  It's mostly a health thing for many of the guys playing poorly to date. You can see how they could get healthy if Rocco can rest some guys as the rest of the division falls away.

 

EDIT: Just want to step back and point out that this is plausible without addressing the probability of it. There is a gap there, to say the least.

[Dave The Dastardly]

I worry more about the feast or famine, strike-out prone lineup than the bullpen. If the starting rotation can give us 6-7 innings every time they take the mound I think the BP will hold its own. But if the starters only go 4 or 5 innings, for whatever reason, we're all going to be saying "I told you we should've picked up another reliever before the deadline!"

[Parfigliano]

52 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Wow, you’re right! If everyone and everything associated with the team is good, they could win a playoff series! 

"If" is carrying a heavy load.

[WinTwins2023]

[pierre75275]

This team to me has the feel of the 1987 team. I'm not sure why, but it does. Maybe bc both of them had/have given plenty of reasons why they would lose.

[GNess]

It is interesting that looking at the same data sets about 50% see doom and gloom while the other 50% of TD sees promise and possibility. Count me as an optimist to see the Twins win some postseason games and advance at least out of the first round. Not sure I have an 87 feel (87 had Kirby Puckett after all), but this team does have a positive, hang in there vibe especially lately. 

[gunnarthor]

It is possible,  I suppose. The problem with articles like this is,  besides just click bait, it assumes best case for us and ignores the opponent. Basically,  whomever we play will be better then us. If we bring our A game and they do too,  they will win. 

On the other have,  expectations are so low, one win moves the needle substantially. 

[Nick Nelson]

39 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

It is possible,  I suppose. The problem with articles like this is,  besides just click bait, it assumes best case for us and ignores the opponent.

In what way is this "assuming best case"? It is laying out the things that would need to happen to put the Twins in a favorable position, and I'm not sure how one could say any of them are remotely implausible. 

[TNtwins85]

If one has ever watched the playoffs we all know it’s about momentum. Seattle last year is a prime example. When Yordan hit that HR they were done and one could say it helped propel the Astros to the WS.  Or when Harper hit the HR against San Diego. Lots of other plays happen but momentum is a huge factor. The Twins have the starters to stay in games and the star power for a big hit. It’s the bullpen that worries me. But, there’s always a chance once you’re in!

[Rik19753]

9 hours ago, TNtwins85 said:

If one has ever watched the playoffs we all know it’s about momentum. Seattle last year is a prime example. When Yordan hit that HR they were done and one could say it helped propel the Astros to the WS.  Or when Harper hit the HR against San Diego. Lots of other plays happen but momentum is a huge factor. The Twins have the starters to stay in games and the star power for a big hit. It’s the bullpen that worries me. But, there’s always a chance once you’re in!

Let's hope momentum isn't as important as you say, because the Twins have all the negative momentum in the world with their 18 straight playoff losses haha.

[old nurse]

12 hours ago, WinTwins2023 said:

There is always a chance, Just ask Detroit about the last 2 games

[rv78]

If things break the right way they have a chance. Which also goes for every other playoff team, On top of that the other teams will be better. I understand the hype to instill hope in this Twins team but when they have under-performed for most of the season anyone in their right mind isn't going to expect them to right the ship as soon as they start playing against all of the best teams in the playoffs. Gray, Ryan, Lopez and Ober have looked very average the last few starts and while the offense has seemed to jump up a gear lately they are now having trouble beating teams like KC and Detroit. Keep drinking the kool-aid. My guess... it'll be another quick exit in the first round.

[Doctor Wu]

18 hours ago, Cris E said:

But that's how WS winners work these days: good players play well, some unexpected guy pulls a Lemke and hits .400 (or a Soler and hits a bunch of HR) and the pen steps up huge.  The Twins have pieces that have under-performed this season, but no one would be shocked if vets like Correa, Buxton, Polanco played well in the bright lights.  It's mostly a health thing for many of the guys playing poorly to date. You can see how they could get healthy if Rocco can rest some guys as the rest of the division falls away.

 

EDIT: Just want to step back and point out that this is plausible without addressing the probability of it. There is a gap there, to say the least.

Great to see that someone still remembers Mark Lemke!

[Peter]

Don’t sleep on twins in playoffs!!! They not only end losing streak but will win series and are sleeper to win it all!!! Let’s go Twins!! 

[Tk33]

I'd add one more.....have one middle reliever get hot.  Seems like the teams that make a run always  have one bullpen arm that goes from 'fine' to 'clutch' during a deep run, getting those leveraged outs needed to get to the back of the bullpen (and/or keep the back of the bullpen from being overworked).  First name that comes to mind in that mold is Marc Scrabble Rzepcynski for the Cards a decade plus ago.  Ok reliever who suddenly seemed to come up huge in the CS and WS multiple times.....

[Whitey333]

Do the Twins have a chance?  Of course they do.  So do all the other playoff teams.  I'm sure the multitude of Twins what ifs, could be, and you never know is the same for the team waiting to play us in the first round.  If we had this record in any other division in baseball we would already be talking about next year.  Of course we win the division.  We are the only team in it with the talent.  No one else wants it.  We may as well take it.  Go Twins.

[joefish]

7 hours ago, Rik19753 said:

Let's hope momentum isn't as important as you say, because the Twins have all the negative momentum in the world with their 18 straight playoff losses haha.

That's nomentum.

[saviking]

22 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

The clear flaws ... 

Make contact or strikeout , I'm not buying it  ....

I've watched other teams collect consecutive hits and walks,  HBP , passed balls to score runs against our pitching  , we've seen how our offense was in 2019 - 20 playoffs  , swinging for the fences against elite pitching and we were eliminate ( skunked )  ...

The Twins don't just need homeruns , they just need to make contact and hit and hit to the opposite field to move runners  along and score ...

We got till October to work on it as I have seen some improvements from some of the batters  ....

 

 

You can't fault someone for slipping on the rose colored glasses every now and then 🙃

I think this is a best case scenario  with a low probability of playing all the way out, but hey, who knows .. Sometimes it's fun to dream ..

[KBJ1]

The Twins, for the first time in years, have the pieces to win, hence everyone's optimism. The poor hitting approach, injuries (again) and lack of bullpen depth have caused them to flounder at 500 all year. One of the best group of utility players in the league (Solano, Castro & Farmer) are the only reason they aren't well below 500 right now. They need the starting 9 healthy and producing to make a run. Losing Brock Stewart has been a Hugh blow to the bullpen & Alcala, Moran and no one else have stepped up.

I have hope for the starting lineup to get healthy, but Buxton appears to be done as does Stewart. Without Buxton in CF and someone stepping up in the bullpen (Ryan maybe) I don't see a WS run.

[Doctor Gast]

I will not waver we have the core to win a post season game, then series & beyond. Our greatest hurdle is the hurdle as always, that is over using our best RPs & squeezing out every inning out our SPs which burns out our BP & rotation well before the post season arrive. I tend to disagree with you Nick on this one, that SO hitters do not do better against better pitchers in more critical clutch situations they tend to SO more frequently. And that stringing together hits is the more reliable avenue of winning the big game. That's not to say that a hitter can not make good contact & hit it out.

[Nick Nelson]

17 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I will not waver we have the core to win a post season game, then series & beyond. Our greatest hurdle is the hurdle as always, that is over using our best RPs & squeezing out every inning out our SPs which burns out our BP & rotation well before the post season arrive. I tend to disagree with you Nick on this one, that SO hitters do not do better against better pitchers in more critical clutch situations they tend to SO more frequently. And that stringing together hits is the more reliable avenue of winning the big game. That's not to say that a hitter can not make good contact & hit it out.

That's not exactly what I was getting at. Just that having your offense be more power-driven -- and the Twins are power-driven, they rank 6th in the majors in ISO -- can be more beneficial in the playoffs. Strikeouts tend to be associated with being power-driven but obviously they are not good at this team's extreme. 

[gunnarthor]

Hopefully,  we won't face the 🐅 in the playoffs ...