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As Carlos Correa stumbled out of the gates in Year 1 of his newly minted $200 million contract with the Minnesota Twins, most of us shrugged. Even as the troubles persisted into May and June, his eventual turnaround always felt like a matter of when, not if.
There were many factors fueling this level of faith. First and foremost, you have his talent level and track record. Correa has been a blatantly amazing ballplayer throughout his career. He's been one of the biggest stars in the game over the past decade – a consistent standout performer and occasional MVP contender with off-the-charts baseball IQ. He's had slumps, as any player does, and he's always come out of them.
Moreover, we witnessed his ability to overcome an early swoon just one year ago. Correa was unimpressive during his first few weeks as a Twin, posting a .243/.309/.324 slash line in April of 2022, but he busted out bigtime in the second half to finish with some of the better offensive numbers of his career.
It always felt like a matter of time. So it has been very easy to buy into the teasing glimpses of self-actualization we've seen from Correa over the course of the season. He's had some moments, to be sure.
There was the walk-off homer on June 14th against the Brewers, punctuated by a dramatic gesture toward an imaginary watch. "Finally," Correa seemed to signaling, "the wait is over."
Turns out, it wasn't. He followed that epic highlight-reel moment by slashing .217/.254/.383 for the rest of June, with five RBIs in 15 games.
“It's a constant grind every at-bat where I've got to fight for hits, and I've got to fight to just feel sexy at the plate,” Correa said as his momentum failed to sustain. “But, you know, I feel like I'm not that far off right now.”
At the end of the month, the Twins held their infamous players-only meeting and it coincided with shifting Correa into the leadoff spot. Here, it looked for awhile like the shortstop was truly and finally starting to "feel sexy."
He thrived during his first few weeks atop the order, slashing .339/.413/.482 in 14 games. The power was still alarmingly absent, but Correa was at least producing, and providing some value to the lineup. An article from Dan Hayes in The Athletic on July 19th, when his OPS had risen to a season-high .725, declared Correa "back on track thanks to a leadoff mentality."
“I’m just swinging," said Correa. "If it’s in the zone, I want to hit it, whatever pitch it is. Rocco putting me in the leadoff spot gave me a new perspective. Instead of trying to go deep on every pitch, it was put the barrel on the ball and let something happen. That’s been allowing me to get on base and allowing me to have better results. Credit to Rocco for putting me in that spot. It changed my mentality.”
As if right on cue, Correa went 0-for-5 in the very next game and is slashing .163/.236/.225 in 12 games since. All the positive progress built up during his modest hot streak was wiped away even more quickly. The 28-year-old returned to what now appears to be his gravitational norm. His limitations are outweighing his ability to adjust and excel.
We're 109 games into this 2023 season – about two-thirds of the way home – and Correa has been worth less than one Win Above Replacement, while earning a $36 million salary. He's on pace to finish with 1.3 fWAR, which is roughly equivalent to the number he posted in 2020, a 60-game season where he posted a 93 OPS+. The ugly overall offensive numbers actually understate how damaging Correa has been at the plate because he also has grounded into an MLB-leading 20 double plays.
Correa's running out of time to escape this dismal rut and there's increasingly little reason to think he will. Much like the team he's supposed to be leading, Correa has quickly erased every budding glimmer of momentum he's able to materialize by falling flat on his face. He can't turn to underlying indicators of better days ahead for comfort, and nor can we.
Correa can't hit fastballs; his wOBA against them is down more than 100 points from a year ago. That's just a core aspect of having any kind of success at the plate. His expected-outcome numbers don't paint a much more optimistic outlook than what we see in his sub-par on-field production. Compare the xwOBA, xAVG, and xSLG in the two pictures below contrasting Correa's 2022 and 2023 seasons. Note the uptick in chasing and whiffing, the decrease in barrels.
He's just not an effective hitter. The true breakout hasn't come, and I'm done pretending it's going to happen, or buying into these temporary deviations. The Twins probably need to give themselves a reality check as well. Their options are limited obviously but at the very least they can stop writing a guy with a sub-.300 OBP into the leadoff spot everyday. We can now safely say that experiment failed, just like every other half-measure this team has taken to address its dire deficiencies.
I have no doubt that Correa is more frustrated and disappointed with his season than any fan, nor that he will fully commit himself to fixing his broken offensive game during the offseason. But that only goes so far. Attitude, effort and commitment have NEVER been the issue with Correa.
The issue is that he frankly looks like a player being suddenly ravaged by the effects of physical aging at 28, in his first of a six-year guaranteed contract. If that's the case, there are no real silver linings to be found.
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