3 Trades the Twins Must Make Today

[Jamie Cameron]

It's trade deadline day! The Twins have been quiet so far yet have plenty of holes to address on their roster. Here are three acquisitions they should prioritize to set them up for the postseason.

Image courtesy of Gregory Fisher, USA Today Sports

Deadline day is upon us! The Guardians unfroze Noah Syndergaard from carbonite in time for him to inherit the standard portion of organizational good fortune prior to pitching against Houston. Despite this, Cleveland’s bullpen wilted against an offensive storm from the Astros, and the Twins entered deadline day with a slender half-game lead in the AL Central.

Despite a five-game losing streak, other Central teams have or will trade away from their MLB rosters. The Twins have the fifth-easiest finish in baseball. The Guardians? Fifth hardest. It’s time to put up, and shut everyone up.

The Twins have to buy in a measured way. Despite clanking almost every hurdle in their lane this season, they have a clear path to a division title. If you’ve been put off from the ill-fated 2022 deadline, good news, it shouldn’t be that hard to plug the gaps. Here are names I’d be prioritizing on deadline day. For the purposes of this exercise, I made the assumption that the Twins focus mostly on rentals.

Acquire OF Adam Duvall from the Red Sox or OF Tommy Pham from the Mets
The Twins need a right-handed bat. The Groundhog Day water cooler conversations around the bottleneck of left-handed outfielders must come to a close at some point, right? I think it’s likely Gallo is DFA’d in the near future as he’s essentially been a non-contributor for months, but the Twins remain horrendously inept against left-handed pitching.

The Red Sox are still in contention for a wild card berth, but it’s possible they hedge and facilitate a soft sell at the deadline. Duvall checks most boxes you might want to see. He can play center field (passably). He’s a rental. He bats right-handed. So what’s the production like? A 128 wRC+ so far in 2023 carrying the best SLG (.542), and wOBA (.364) since he was in Atlanta in 2019. He’s not a lefty masher, but he fits the roster need well.

Pham is another bat who fits the bill. Right-handed, rental, with some ancillary skills (like excellent baserunning) that the Twins don’t usually do well. Pham has a 1.7 fWAR and 127 wRC+ thus far in 2023. Crucially, he has a .871 OPS against left-handed pitching. There are plenty of other options here, including Teoscar Hernandez. The Twins have to come away with a right-handed hitting upgrade today.

Acquire RHP Carlos Hernandez from the Royals or RHP Kyle Finnegan from the Nationals
The injuries to Caleb Thielbar and Brock Stewart, combined with some severe regression of the erstwhile outstanding rotation, have left the Twins bullpen on thin ice, overworked and overleveraged. Even with Thielbar returning and Stewart soon to start a rehab assignment, a deep bullpen is critical in September as starts shorten.

The price on Hernandez is probably too high, but I have to admit I’m intrigued. The Royals flamethrower isn’t a free agent until 2028. So why would the Royals sell? Well, they’re terrible, and they don’t have a single Top 100 prospect on Baseball America’s mid-season re-ranking. In 53 innings of relief thus far in 2023, Hernandez has a 30 K%, 7.1 BB%, 3.31 xERA, and he throws 100 mph. He’ll cost a ton, but I’m thinking about it.

If Hernandez is the upper echelon of what you want to meaningfully bolster the bullpen, Kyle Finnegan is probably the bare minimum. A free agent in 2026, Finnegan has pitched in 44 innings in 2023. 23.5 K%, 7.8 BB%, and a 3.07 ERA (4.37 xERA) probably slots him somewhere at the bottom of the Thielbar and Stewart tier. The velocity is good (97 mph average fastball), though it’s possible the Twins look to true rental options such as Jose Cisnero or Keynan Middleton.

Acquire LHP Brooks Raley from the Mets or LHP Brent Suter from the Rockies
A few weeks ago, I convinced myself that this wasn’t a great need for the Twins. If Caleb Thielbar (activated for the Cardinals series), returns to good health and form, the need is certainly lessened. Having watched Jovani Moran walk just south of 5.0 BB/9 over 90 MLB innings, he just doesn’t feel like someone you can comfortably use in a playoff game. The Twins need to add a left-handed arm to the bullpen.

Raley is a solid option from the Mets. This season, he’s posted a 26.2 K% and 11 BB% in 28 innings of work. That’s underpinned by a solid 3.31 xERA. That’s all capped off by an affordable 2024 club option which raises the appeal, and the price. 

Suter is a true rental after signing a one-year, $3 million deal with the Rockies for 2023. He’s put together a great season so far although he has even less velocity than Raley and he doesn’t generate a ton of strikeouts. In 48 1/3 innings, Suter has a 20.2 K% (not great), a 7.6 BB% (great), and a 2.59 xERA. I love Jovani Moran, and I believe in his stuff, but if you can’t throw strikes, you can’t be relied upon to pitch in the playoffs.

On average through the last two seasons, there have been just south of 30 trades on deadline day (on average), so I expect today to be busy. It’s likely the Twins do something creative. Maybe they sell high on a pitcher, maybe they make another challenge trade. What’s evident, after more than half a season, is they have the talent to win the AL Central comfortably. They should maximize their chances with measured aggression on deadline day.

Who do you want the Twins to target today? Join the discussion in the comments below.

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[terrydactyls]

Another article that suggests who the Twins should acquire with no mention of the asset cost of these trades.  As has been stated in numerous articles, all the other central division teams are sellers which essentially concedes the division crown to the Twins.  This means to me they should trade Gray to a contender for a right-handed outfielder, trade Maeda to a contender for a relief pitcher, and trade Polanco or Kepler to a contender for another relief pitcher.  It's a seller's market. The players coming to the Twins must be AAA level or controllable young major league players.  The Twins only need three starters for the playoffs (Lopez, Ryan, and Ober).  For offense, the Twins really need Buxton and Correa to step up.  They may break the 0-18 streak and maybe even win a series, but they probably won't get any further.  Think long term, not short term.

[Trov]

I wish the writer would have suggested who we would need to give up to make those deals.  I am not willing to gut our whole farm system to get a few rental guys to maybe push us a little bit better.  We have a core that should be good, for whatever reason we have had issues putting it all together.  But giving up any depth and the long term future when we still will not be favored to win anything will be a bad move in my opinion. 

[twinfan]

All of these trade possibilities are not going to significantly help the Twins though Pham is the best of them all. I can't see us giving up anything significant for any of these. Reliever Hernandez is the only deal I would make. We aren't beating lefties because Buxton and Correa aren't hitting and Polanco has been absent. Let's see how it goes from here. I wish Arenado was available but he's not so there isn't much to go for.  Teaoscar will cost too much.

[strumdatjag]

MUST???   A right handed bat would be nice and comes closest to being actual need.   It doesn’t help much, however, if the rest of the line up doesn’t produce AND is less of a necessity if they do produce.

 The other MUSTS are not necessary. and can and will be addressed internally.  Find a way to get Dallas Keuchel up here   -  there you have your lefty starter (trading Gray or Maeda to make room and adding the farm system or helping to acquire that RH/ lefty masher).  Relief pitching can and will be addressed internally..   Thielbar and Stewart will return and there are other options in St Paul.  
Do not bet the farm on this inconsistent team.   There are less costly ways to accomplish these goals.  Cost matters. 

[Whitey333]

There should be a trade or two today to get one or two right handed bats and bullpen help.  I would DFA Gallo immediately thus creating a roster spot.  IF the Twins have no plans to keep Gray and Maeda then they too should be traded.  They are in a tough spot but it's their own fault.  Trying to sell a mediocre team to its fans is tough.  We should be used to it with the last three years.  I will be following the trade deadline today.  I expect the Twins may make a relatively minor move or two then tell ys how confident they are in the team they have.  This FO usually signs free agents late after many of the most wanted free agents sign elsewhere.  They also do the same with trades.  Wait until the last minute while telling us its the best way to leverage a trade.  But then miss out on a lot of opportunities from players already traded.  Go Twins!

[Rik19753]

Agree completely with the others. We need much more than a right-handed bat and mediocre relief pitchers to compete. Unless you are going to make a splash move, sell your assets for controllable players. Trading Kepler for a young reliever with multiple years of control and Gray for a decent right handed bat with control + a lower level prospect or two would be a nice middle ground.

[CRF]

None of those deals moves the needle very much, and I'd actually be surprised if this FO does ANYTHING today. If they do, it won't be anything too spectacular. 

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Another article that suggests who the Twins should acquire with no mention of the asset cost of these trades.  As has been stated in numerous articles, all the other central division teams are sellers which essentially concedes the division crown to the Twins.  This means to me they should trade Gray to a contender for a right-handed outfielder, trade Maeda to a contender for a relief pitcher, and trade Polanco or Kepler to a contender for another relief pitcher.  It's a seller's market. The players coming to the Twins must be AAA level or controllable young major league players.  The Twins only need three starters for the playoffs (Lopez, Ryan, and Ober).  For offense, the Twins really need Buxton and Correa to step up.  They may break the 0-18 streak and maybe even win a series, but they probably won't get any further.  Think long term, not short term.

Why do the Twins only need 3 starters for the playoffs? And what if 1 of those starters gets hurt between now and October?

I'm not suggesting they go all in for this season or anything, and I've seen a few people suggest only needing 3 starters, but, unless you're running a bullpen day in any 4+ game series you need at least 4 starters for the playoffs. And the idea that the Guardians traded Civale so we can trade 40% of our rotation, plus (maybe) Polanco (I'm down with trading Kep), and still maintain our massive 1 game lead seems like a huge ask. I don't think Cleveland is a seller. I think they'll do like they always do and both buy and sell. They're absolutely not "conceding" the division to a 1 game over .500 Twins team. The Twins have real work to do to make the playoffs this year. Not suggesting they mortgage the future, but nobody suggested in this article is going to have a huge cost attached to them.

[Linus]

Gray is not getting traded because a team would have to give us something better than the comp pick. That won’t happen for ten starts of Gray. 

[Karbo]

I don't see them dumping Gallo with AK on the shelf. Also, since the rest of the division is selling, I wouldn't get rid of any of our top prospects for a rental. This team just have too many needs to expect it to compete in the playoffs, if they make it.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I suggest the Twins keep calm and carry on. The vast majority of the bargains go to the Sellers. Any bargains close to the trade deadline are the young prospects which the contending teams (Buyers) give up in order to increase by a very small percentage the contending teams' odds of winning it all over the next 2 and a half months, at the expense of the Buyers' future.

[USAFChief]

43 minutes ago, strumdatjag said:

  Relief pitching can and will be addressed internally..   Thielbar and Stewart will return and there are other options in St Paul.  
 

No, it most certainly cannot and will not be addressed internally. 

[TNtwins85]

“They should maximize their chances with measured aggression on deadline day.”

agreed! Good article.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Would be happy with Pham and TWO bullpen arms. Not confident in either Thielbar or Stewart staying healthy and the Twins need more than just Duran and Jax at the end of games.

As for Pham, dude's a gamer. Not afraid of the moment.

[PatPfund]

Some great points, though Duvall evidently does not check the number one box (we don't need a right-handed hitter, we need someone who can 'mash lefties', and Duvall doesn't). Agree with others that Hernandez sounds the best of these options, but I'm also fine with the Twins mostly sitting this one out, or sticking to picking up some solid relief help (where the farm is barest).

Not because I'm waving a white flag (I still think we win the division and our first playoff game regardless of whether or not we make a move), But because I want this team to be even better at this time next year, with a deeper farm system, and the path to mediocrity is paved by continually trading away up and coming (and cheap) talent for overpriced has-beens who simply end up blocking our own talent from developing.

[TwinkieFan4life]

It is ridiculous to want to trade away good controllable talent (these trades are only made by parting with players useful to other organizations).  This team is screaming out that it isn't going anywhere.

We did this last year when it had been clear for months that we just weren't very good.  What did we give up?  2 major league ready right handed bats.  Spencer Steer is hitting 313-373-586 vs. LH pitching this year (boy would that be nice!!).  We also gave up one of the best relief pitchers in the American League. 

We should be supplementing the system right now, not gutting the system  to add fringe pieces to this team.  We are not a good team.

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, TwinkieFan4life said:

It is ridiculous to want to trade away good controllable talent (these trades are only made by parting with players useful to other organizations).  This team is screaming out that it isn't going anywhere.

We did this last year when it had been clear for months that we just weren't very good.  What did we give up?  2 major league ready right handed bats.  Spencer Steer is hitting 313-373-586 vs. LH pitching this year (boy would that be nice!!).  We also gave up one of the best relief pitchers in the American League. 

We should be supplementing the system right now, not gutting the system  to add fringe pieces to this team.  We are not a good team.

To be fair, the players discussed in this piece would be nowhere near as expensive in prospects as the deals made last year. These are far more like the Fulmer deal. Guessing most people don't even remember who we gave up for Fulmer (Sawyer Gipson-Long is the answer). These types of trades don't "gut the system."

[Jeff K]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

Another article that suggests who the Twins should acquire with no mention of the asset cost of these trades.  As has been stated in numerous articles, all the other central division teams are sellers which essentially concedes the division crown to the Twins.  This means to me they should trade Gray to a contender for a right-handed outfielder, trade Maeda to a contender for a relief pitcher, and trade Polanco or Kepler to a contender for another relief pitcher.  It's a seller's market. The players coming to the Twins must be AAA level or controllable young major league players.  The Twins only need three starters for the playoffs (Lopez, Ryan, and Ober).  For offense, the Twins really need Buxton and Correa to step up.  They may break the 0-18 streak and maybe even win a series, but they probably won't get any further.  Think long term, not short term.

Maybe trade one of the starters, but not both.  And more importantly, they need to break the logjam in the outfield.  Kepler should have some value now.  He has really stepped up; but I believe that you should buy low and sell  high.  

[nicksaviking]

The only trade the Red Sox made was a guy they were almost certainly going to DFA. I don't think they're sellers. I also don't think the Mets trade controllable players unless it's a really stupid offer by the buying club. 

Hernandez and Finnegan will surely be too expensive. It's been my guess for awhile now that ownership has already told the front office that they've already squandered all of their magic wishes and they'll get no more. They need to ride or die with the thus far unfruitful decisions they've already committed to.

[nicksaviking]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

To be fair, the players discussed in this piece would be nowhere near as expensive in prospects as the deals made last year. These are far more like the Fulmer deal. Guessing most people don't even remember who we gave up for Fulmer (Sawyer Gipson-Long is the answer). These types of trades don't "gut the system."

Fulmer was a rental player. Hernandez and Finnegan have many years of control, they'll probably require closer to the Mahle deal than the Fulmer deal. 

And really, the Royals are already starting a lineup made up largely of players they probably think are part of their long term future. Hernandez is quite possibly part of their long term plan as well. 

[Parfigliano]

Most I see them doing is picking up a LH reliever.  Most likely they stand with what they have and dont even DFA Gallo.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

If the Pohlad's haven't handcuffed the front office from making moves - and honestly, if they did, no one should be upset after last year - I expect them to make 2-3 trades. Their jobs depend on it. They don't win the division in 2023 and people are going to be or at least should be fired. 

[farmerguychris]

1 hour ago, CRF said:

None of those deals moves the needle very much, and I'd actually be surprised if this FO does ANYTHING today. If they do, it won't be anything too spectacular. 

I would prefer doing nothing than moving on from one of our top 3 future guys - that is my biggest fear.

 

[jishfish]

Here's a perfect 3-team trade that I have no idea if any of the 3 teams would accept, but I threw it together in 30 seconds and is something that would get me excited as a Twins fan. No idea how you make the position player side of the roster work (maybe dump Solano/MAT?). Depends on when Royce/AK are coming back healthy. Probably don't want to bank on either at this point.

For the Twins specifically:

Giving --> Larnach, Miranda, Varland

Getting --> Goldy, Bader, Wandy

Anyways, feel free to rip it apart!

[tony&rodney]

Just wishing and hoping, but not expecting much. Hernandez is unlikely (in division), yet would be a good addition.

[chpettit19]

9 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Fulmer was a rental player. Hernandez and Finnegan have many years of control, they'll probably require closer to the Mahle deal than the Fulmer deal. 

And really, the Royals are already starting a lineup made up largely of players they probably think are part of their long term future. Hernandez is quite possibly part of their long term plan as well. 

Finnegan is 31, and nowhere near elite. If they're trying to give up closer to a Mahle package than Fulmer package for him the Pohlads better fire them today before they make that deal.

Hernandez is still young so maybe we're witnessing him "figure it out," but he's been awful the 2 previous seasons (51 total innings which is more than his current 46 this year) so I'd hope they learned a little something from the Lopez deal here. He cut his WHIP in half from last year. If they're trying to ship out another 4 player package for a half season success story again the Pohlads better fire them today before they make that deal.

[TwinkieFan4life]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

To be fair, the players discussed in this piece would be nowhere near as expensive in prospects as the deals made last year. These are far more like the Fulmer deal. Guessing most people don't even remember who we gave up for Fulmer (Sawyer Gipson-Long is the answer). These types of trades don't "gut the system."

Yea, nobody thought that RP thrown into the Baltimore trade mattered.  Is a "Fulmer type" player really going to move the needle for this team?  

The KC bullpen arm throwing 100 and succeeding in the MLB with years of control would take more than SGL to coax the Royals to trade.  

If Pham or Duvall can be had for a SGL like return go ahead and do it.  In a sellers market I think both would require more.

The article is titled "3 Trades the Twins Must Make Today".  You really think we can get all that done and not give up meaningful prospect capital?  You're dilusional.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, TwinkieFan4life said:

Yea, nobody thought that RP thrown into the Baltimore trade mattered.  Is a "Fulmer type" player really going to move the needle for this team?  

The KC bullpen arm throwing 100 and succeeding in the MLB with years of control would take more than SGL to coax the Royals to trade.  

If Pham or Duvall can be had for a SGL like return go ahead and do it.  In a sellers market I think both would require more.

The article is titled "3 Trades the Twins Must Make Today".  You really think we can get all that done and not give up meaningful prospect capital?  You're dilusional.

Cano? If you're going to point to a 29 year old reliever with massive walk problems who figured it out for half a year as a point of concern you're arguing to never make trades. 

Go look at the "success" the "KC bullpen arm throwing 100" had the last 2 years. He's not exactly Rivera out there. Sure, it'll take more than SGL type to get him, but I'd certainly hope they learned their lesson to not give out Lopez type packages to half season reliever success stories after those pitchers were incredibly bad the rest of their major league career.

If Pham or Duvall are costing much more than an SGL type return the Twins should be selling any and everyone of their expiring contracts cuz apparently they're all worth significant returns in this sellers market. Tommy Pham is having the 2nd best year of his career at the age of 35. You don't get big returns for that guy, especially when he's a rental. Adam Duvall is having the best year of his career at age 34, in 45 games. Again, you don't get big returns for that guy, especially when he's a rental.

Yes, I do. Rental 34 and 35 year olds with outlier spike seasons don't get huge returns. The Royals can ask for a big return for Hernandez's 4 months of good pitching when he had 2 plus seasons of DFA worthy pitching before that, but the Twins shouldn't pay it, and Finnegan is a 31 year old decent reliever so they shouldn't pay much for him either. Suter is basically a left handed Fulmer. Raley is 1 step up because of his extra year, but he's nowhere near a Mahle or Lopez so he'd get a slightly better prospect than SGL. Nobody on this list would demand a top 15 prospect outside of Hernandez, but they shouldn't go after him anyways since he's basically Lopez 2.0 and they should've learned their lesson there, and maybe Raley.

[Johnny Ringo]

With this roster, the best three trades the Twins could make today would be:

-- Dan Gladden for anyone. The Twins "Hall of Famer"  with the same lifetime WAR as Nick Punto gets stranger and more pedantic every day;

-- $14 beers for $8 beers;

-- Joey Gallo for not Joey Gallo

As I said yesterday, this team has neither the trade capital nor the merit to make significant changes.