The Twins Did Well in Trade of Jorge López Trade (The 2nd Time)

[Matt Braun]

You don’t see many one-for-one reliever swaps, but this is one that looks solid for both sides. 

Image courtesy of Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota kicked off their 2023 trade deadline on Wednesday, dealing Jorge López to the Marlins while getting Dylan Floro in return. Let’s talk about it. 

For the Twins, it was untenable to keep López in Minnesota; he allowed a run in his second career outing with the Twins, and it only got worse from there. Like a flicked switch, López went from dominating All-Star to a messy coin flip, with Rocco Baldelli never quite knowing what to expect whenever he called for the righty. A poor 2022 begat a disastrous 2023—one that has seen his ERA and FIP skyrocket to absurd levels. All the stuff in the world didn’t matter as batters pounded López’s offerings, hitting seven homers over just 35 ⅓ innings.

There was more than just athletics, though. López was placed on the recently-created mental health IL, as he revealed that he was not right mentally, perhaps in part because of health problems ailing his son, perhaps because of his sudden fall-off in performance. The mound can be the loneliest place in the world, as the camera’s spotlight captures failure and success alike, leading to painful agony as the numbers balloon and the outs never come easy. Any man’s fortitude would be tested when such pressures are magnified by personal sorrow; we root for López to find the things in life that can better bring him joy. Hopefully, that joy is in Miami. 

(It feels weird to continue analyzing the deal after writing such a thing, but analyze we must, so.)

In return, the Twins received the 32-year-old Dylan Floro. Floro—a champion with the 2020 Dodgers, perhaps most well-known as Kenley Jansen’s set-up man for a bit—is better than your typical throw-in. His ERA disagrees with him in 2023, but his peripherals rave about him; Floro is striking out batters at the highest rate of his career, and he’s acquiring groundballs at a 55.1% rate. The result is… a 4.54 ERA. That’ll happen when your BABIP is nearly touching .400. 

But his FIP is an elite 2.74. It's unlikely that he's a true-talent 2.74 FIP pitcher these days, as he has a a bit too much loud contact in his profile; still, somewhere in the mid 3s would represent enough reliability to fulfill an effective role in the second-tier of Minnesota's bullpen. 

With a boilerplate sinker/four-seam/slider/changeup repertoire, Floro likes to bully batters with a lively sinker before finishing them off with a well-placed slider. The occasional lefty will see a four-seamer. He’ll likely slot in behind Griffin Jax on the bullpen hierarchy, likely seeing time in the seventh or earlier before Brock Stewart’s return, bumping him to a more flexible, roving middle-relief guy.

And, honestly, a solid middle reliever is a pretty good get for the Twins. It was clear that López was in dire need of a change of scenery, leaving the team without much leverage in negotiations. To get a potentially, historically reliable arm for a player they couldn’t do much with is a win; the onus is now on Miami to work with López and get him to the place he needs to be. 

It's interesting as well that the Twins were willing to admit a mistake: rather than double-down and continue playing a player obviously not as good as the one they expected, the team dealt López not even a year after acquiring him. This is no promise that a player like Joey Gallo will follow suit, but if I'm him, I'm less certain about my spot on the team going forward. 

Floro is only a rental, being a free agent at year’s end, while López is under team control for another year. There remains a chance that López figures it out in Miami, but that shouldn’t cause Twins fans to lose sleep: he probably wasn’t going to do that here. This is an atypical deal, involving no prospects, only two relievers with unattractive ERAs; the Twins probably did about as well as they could do, but this isn’t the impact deal that will define the team, and there’s a real chance this acquisition is washed over by the sands of time, with only immaculate grid weirdos remembering each player and whom they played for.

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[JD-TWINS]

Hope Lopez does well in Miami. Twins certainly needed to make a change. 

Floro seems like a similar level pitcher with less up & down. We just lose the lack of a contract for next year & if he looks decent maybe we offer/pay him some or more of what was targeted for Lopez?

Good move - need to start getting the clubhouse squared away with some certainty on the roster. …………another couple weeks and things should calm in that regard with Thielbar - Lewis - Polanco - maybe Stewart

[CRF]

No idea what to make of this trade yet, but I wish Lopez the best. I hope he and his family are ok. 

[weitz41]

Best of luck to Jorge Lopez. I hope things go well for him and his family in Miami.

Welcome aboard Dylan Floro. You are probably going to enjoy the defense playing behind you much more than what you had in Miami.

I'd say something about the original trade but am expecting a slew of those comments. I am of the opinion that you don't win every trade and a higher percentage of buy trades flame out then sell trades. Time to move on.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Best wishes to Jorge Lopez and his family. I hope he is successful in his career and I wish him nothing but the very best in everything.  I am always proud of someone who, when he falls down, gets back up and seeks help.  

[MABB1959]

Who knows how this will work but I am glad only one Lopez left.

[twinstalker]

The good news: Twins really need a rhp vs righty specialist in the bullpen.

The bad news:  Target Field isn't LoanDepot Park.

[Vanimal46]

I give Falvey credit for not investing further into a sunk cost if they didn’t believe they could fix Lopez. Terry Ryan would have milked every day of control Jorge Lopez had before giving up. 

[beckmt]

This was a decent change of scenery trade.  Lopez was a definite non-tender candidate, if the Twins could not fix him.  It means the Twins need another solid reliever, but that also now could be a pitcher who is a free agent at the end of the year and just count on the returners for next year.  

[TopGunn#22]

My initial reaction upon seeing the trade was that due to Lopez's superior "stuff" we were losers.  I certainly hope things work out well for Jorge and his family in Miami.  I'd like to see him succeed.  Upon further reflection I'm O.K. with this.  Floro is not a dominant arm like Lopez COULD be.  But at this point in time, he's more dependable.  That dependability is what the Twins need moving forward.  I still think we need another dominant arm for the 8th inning and to close when Duran is not available.  Looks like the Padres have taken Hader and Snell off the market.     

[Thebigalguy]

Well said. Now, Pagan? Who’s back again to his old tricks?

[Twins GFP]

Feels more of a net-neutral trade.  One guy with issues for another guy with issues, both teams hoping that a change of scenery will help.   

[Nashvilletwin]

11 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Feels more of a net-neutral trade.  One guy with issues for another guy with issues, both teams hoping that a change of scenery will help.   

👍🏻. Another way to look at it is a pretty much low leverage guy with an extra year for a pretty much medium leverage guy with no control next year.  So an extra year of control for slightly more use in higher leverage situations.

[saviking]

I don't see an extra year of control a plus in regards to Lopez. Correa banged the table to trade for him and we gave up a lot of young players. Now let's move on to fixing our Gallo mistake and maybe trade Gordon as it's looking like Castro is the real deal. I think Castro is more versatile than Gordon and a better defensive player. He's a better base stealer and just as good a hitter as Gordon if not better. 

And finally, Castro is a switch hitter when our team is overloaded with left handed batters. 

[NotAboutWinning]

Every time I get fed up the FO being arrogant and stubborn, they go ahead and do something nice! I hope it works out for Lopez and his family!

[CharlieDee]

This is the F.O. admitting that last years trade with Baltimore was a bust.  For us.

[gman]

Didn't  move the dial. Still need a late inning reliable arm. Keep looking.

[Blyleven2011]

Hope it works out for Jorge being close to the family ....

He cost us a bundle  , an Allstar Cano,  a prospect pitcher and other fringe players  and now we trade for a rental player floro ....

Boy is the pressure now on floro to succeed  or the fans are going to roast him ( or maybe the FO should be roasted )  because of the cost to get Lopez at deadline last year ...

Can we win with this FO or manager , I've been waiting  , waiting and waiting  ...

It's like the energizer bunny only in reverse  ....

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Hope it works out for Jorge being close to the family ....

He cost us a bundle  , an Allstar Cano,  a prospect pitcher and other fringe players  and now we trade for a rental player floro ....

Boy is the pressure now on floro to succeed  or the fans are going to roast him ( or maybe the FO should be roasted )  because of the cost to get Lopez at deadline last year ...

Can we win with this FO or manager , I've been waiting  , waiting and waiting  ...

It's like the energizer bunny only in reverse  ....

90% of fans have no idea the trades that got to this point, I'd guess. 

[Blyleven2011]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

90% of fans have no idea the trades that got to this point, I'd guess. 

Name one ....

You'd guess wrong ... 

[jmlease1]

23 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Hope it works out for Jorge being close to the family ....

He cost us a bundle  , an Allstar Cano,  a prospect pitcher and other fringe players  and now we trade for a rental player floro ....

Boy is the pressure now on floro to succeed  or the fans are going to roast him ( or maybe the FO should be roasted )  because of the cost to get Lopez at deadline last year ...

Can we win with this FO or manager , I've been waiting  , waiting and waiting  ...

It's like the energizer bunny only in reverse  ....

Cano is an all-star now...he was a fringe player when traded and as bad as Lopez was for the Twins last season, Cano was worse in Baltimore. Check the stats: Cano was awful. he completely changed who he was as a pitcher, and you simply can't assume that he would have done that here. Sometimes the player can't or won't change who they are until they get dealt and find themselves in a las chance situation. 

And let's not pretend Povich is lighting it up. People around here liked him as a prospect, but he's still who he was: a fringe prospect who needs to develop better command or he's going to be trying to reinvent himself in the pen in 2 years. 

there was ONE other player from the Twins in the trade: a rookie ball lottery ticket who has only thrown 15 innings since being dealt.

not that big of a bundle. It didn't work out, but we didn't damage the farm system in any significant way.

[twinfan]

While I do not like Floro, I understand the deal. I think Lopez, when right, is much better. However, he is not right at this time. If he does become right in the future, this deal will bite us (IMHO). There are better fish in the sea but we have to hope that Floro can do the job. 

[jmlease1]

2 minutes ago, twinfan said:

While I do not like Floro, I understand the deal. I think Lopez, when right, is much better. However, he is not right at this time. If he does become right in the future, this deal will bite us (IMHO). There are better fish in the sea but we have to hope that Floro can do the job. 

How is it biting us, though? He's basically unplayable for us right now, so either we carry a pitcher on the roster we can't use (unless they let us DL him again?) in order to hope that he can get right for next season and commit to him for another $5M or we move on with a pitcher who is likely to be better this season. there's essentially no long term harm, only the opportunity cost of him maybe regaining his half-season all-star form next season before becoming a free agent.

[wabene]

Cano has been coming back to Earth since mid June and is currently getting clobbered. That may have been a flash in the pan. 

[Danchat]

29 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

And let's not pretend Povich is lighting it up. People around here liked him as a prospect, but he's still who he was: a fringe prospect who needs to develop better command or he's going to be trying to reinvent himself in the pen in 2 years. 

I wouldn't call a top 20 prospect of ours a "fringe", and he's recently been ranked as one of their top 10 prospects - not to mention, he was the primary prospect of the trade, the guy the Orioles wanted. He's not someone I'm losing sleep over, but our current stable of pitching prospects is mediocre again and we could use him (best used as a trade chip for someone of actual value, not a sub-replacement level reliever).

[jmlease1]

42 minutes ago, wabene said:

Cano has been coming back to Earth since mid June and is currently getting clobbered. That may have been a flash in the pan. 

yeah, the last month has not been good for him, but he's a reliever, so one month doesn't necessarily mean much. but it could mean that there's now enough film on him with his new approach that people are finding some holes to exploit. If he falls apart again, then the Lopez trade is back to being basically Povich for Lopez.

[Blyleven2011]

38 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Cano is an all-star now...he was a fringe player when traded and as bad as Lopez was for the Twins last season, Cano was worse in Baltimore. Check the stats: Cano was awful. he completely changed who he was as a pitcher, and you simply can't assume that he would have done that here. Sometimes the player can't or won't change who they are until they get dealt and find themselves in a las chance situation. 

And let's not pretend Povich is lighting it up. People around here liked him as a prospect, but he's still who he was: a fringe prospect who needs to develop better command or he's going to be trying to reinvent himself in the pen in 2 years. 

there was ONE other player from the Twins in the trade: a rookie ball lottery ticket who has only thrown 15 innings since being dealt.

not that big of a bundle. It didn't work out, but we didn't damage the farm system in any significant way.

If you remember , last year  we were not contenders and many fans didn't want to trade prospects because we were just in first place , first place but not contenders , the trades failed and we dropped out of first place  , was it injuries or just bad baseball  ...

This year we are better  , starting pitching is solid  , hitting  seems to be coming around lately  and I don't see the FO  making any significant  upgrades , trading or dfa veteran players is possible  ,  

Let the young players and prospects play the game  , 

Yes we gave up  a bundle for J. Lopez and mahle at last years deadline ... 

I agree that somethings do click sometimes when a player is traded to another team , a different voice may help ( cano )  ...

[KBJ1]

Still need actual bullpen help.

Theilbar & Stewart are still two weeks out and you cannot count on them to be 100% of what they were.

Jax is now becoming a second coming of Pagan. Great in Low leverage situations and clobbered in high leverage ones.

This team has potential, but still needs a lot. Gallo, Gordon and maybe even Polanco need to be moved.

Sands,  Ortega & Moran need to be "not on a major league roster".

[DocBauer]

Not exactly exciting stuff, but a good and smart move for all involved. Really hope this helps "right" Lopez's life and career. 

Floro is not the arm they necessarily need, but he's one they can use. He replaces a potential IL or DFA arm that is unusable at the moment with a solid, experienced arm. A hole in the pen is now filled with a solid arm. That's a win in the short term. 

I wish we KNEW that Thielbar and Stewart were going to be just fine. If that were the case, I think you could almost make the argument to stand pat at the deadline, bullpen wise. But I think they are going to grab one solid arm, possibly two, but they will be more along the line of another Romo from a couple years ago. They want help, they want solid help, but they don't want to overpay for 2 months of someone, or overpay for a big name, or any high cost arm for an extended time. And I'm OK with that.

Floro helps stabilize the pen. Stewart and Thielbar move the entire pen up a notch. But it's a bit of a gamble to trust in them at 100% at this point. So I am 100% on inexpensive rentals that are solid, and can help. And the thing about those rentals is, you can always re-sign them if the fit looks good.

[dxpavelka]

9 hours ago, Thebigalguy said:

Well said. Now, Pagan? Who’s back again to his old tricks?

Twins are said to have the best rotation in MLB.  But sure, let's move a RP with a better ERA than all but two of those starters.  Why fans don't run teams...