The Twins Are Trending Toward Full Strength for the Stretch Run

[Nick Nelson]

Knock on wood. Do it, now! Did you knock on it? Okay, find some more and go knock on that as well please.

We need to get all superstitious frivolities out of the way before we start diving into what a drastically different picture is taking shape in the AL Central compared to one year ago.

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

On this date in 2022, the Minnesota Twins were technically in a very similar position to the one they are now: six games above .500 and three games ahead in the division. 

This could be treated as a cautionary tale. As we now know, that margin was as high as it would ever get. Minnesota's lead in the Central disappeared over the next two weeks and they never got it back, finishing 14 games out.

But let's take a step back and compare the team's current state to where they were at a year ago, just before the bottom fell out. Moreover, let's compare how their top competitor in the division is relatively faring this time around.

While the Twins don't deserve total absolution for their post-break collapse last year, a contrast in roster health was clearly the overriding factor in Cleveland's surpassing them for the division title. The Guardians managed to avoid key injuries almost entirely, losing the fewest days to the injured list of any team in baseball.

Meanwhile, the Twins were on the opposite end of that spectrum, plagued by an ever-growing assortment of ailments. Right around this time, the whole thing was beginning to unravel.

On July 26th, Alex Kirilloff went 0-for-4 against Milwaukee. Days later he'd be shut down for the season. In the following weeks, Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler all went down. Ryan Jeffers had already suffered an essentially season-ending thumb injury. 

This year we find ourselves with a much brighter outlook. Whereas Kirilloff was plainly wearing down and searching for answers at this time last year, he now appears to be rounding into form. Kepler and Jeffers are healthy and playing well. Buxton is on pace to play the second-most games of his nine-year career. Polanco is on the comeback trail.

 

The Twins certainly haven't avoided injuries entirely, with Polanco being a prime example, but there isn't the same air of hopelessness that began to envelope the club a year ago. Players like Polanco, Caleb Thielbar, and Royce Lewis are making their way back with fairly firm timelines, allowing the front office to plan around addition rather than attrition. Others with more ambiguous long-term timelines, like Nick Gordon, Jose Miranda, Jorge Alcala and Chris Paddack, are more role players than mainstays.  

Brock Stewart is an exception to this trend – a vital component of the bullpen who is sidelined indefinitely with a vague and worrisome outlook – but he's just that: an exception. The second half of 2022 was overrun by situations like these.

In Cleveland, the turn of fortune has been less favorable. Their charmed life has worn off and the injured list has grown much more crowded for the second-place Guardians, who recently moved Shane Bieber to the 60-day IL where he joins Triston McKenzie. Both top starters will miss most of the second half, if not all of it, leaving Cleveland's chances to overtake the Twins even lower, in practical terms, than their 15% odds (per FanGraphs) might suggest.

Look, I'm not here to tell you anything is promised. You know never what can happen, as we've seen. But if you find yourself feeling a sense of doom and pessimism stemming from what we all went through in 2022, know that the situation in the AL Central is very, very different here in 2023. The same magical formula that enabled the Guardians to overcome the Twins last year won't be replicated with the cosmic balance of injury luck leveling out.

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[Twins GFP]

So glad you brought this up Nick.  There have been a dozen articles scrutinizing every aspect of what the Twins should do at the deadline.  Without making a move, they are expecting to pickup two bats and a reliever in the very near future.  The prospects of these three individuals (and Stewart as well) will have a huge impact on how the Twins view the deadline...

[nicksaviking]

Agree. Unless there's a shockingly big trade, these guys are likely as big of a boost as any of average players they plan on trading for.

Though, I think the Twins have actually played better when forced to improvise. Seems like every time a starter goes down and they have to reach into the AAA bag, they come out better than when the starter was in the lineup.

[RpR]

20 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Agree. Unless there's a shockingly big trade, these guys are likely as big of a boost as any of average players they plan on trading for.

Though, I think the Twins have actually played better when forced to improvise. Seems like every time a starter goes down and they have to reach into the AAA bag, they come out better than when the starter was in the lineup.

K master Buxton is not there.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

If we are describing the Guardians 2022 run as charmed and lucky, then let's be consistent and describe the Twins 2023 season the same way. 

But the Twins won't really have a stretch run this season. It's been evident for a while now. We are all just drumming our fingers at this point, playing the waiting game, to see who our first round opponent will be and if this is the year we break the streak. Maybe enjoy some baseball in the meantime.

[Nine of twelve]

Last September we were starting the 8th, 9th, and 10th string outfielders in the system.

[big dog]

I don’t know about charmed… we just got Maeda back, Mahle’s been gone Polanco and Paddack missed a lot of time, Lewis and Kiriloff started late and Lewis is now out again, Buxton hasn’t played in the field. We haven’t exactly been without our own challenges. 

[Hubie29]

50 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

So glad you brought this up Nick.  There have been a dozen articles scrutinizing every aspect of what the Twins should do at the deadline.  Without making a move, they are expecting to pickup two bats and a reliever in the very near future.  The prospects of these three individuals (and Stewart as well) will have a huge impact on how the Twins view the deadline...

I hate this type of reasoning. Has been going on since I can remember. "We are getting player A,B and C back from injury, so it's like adding 3 players at the deadline without making a trade". HATE this! They are players we have had of and on all year and we are sitting at 5 games over .500. Has anyone ever heard of "adding" better talent than what you are getting back from injury to be a better ballclub? I just don't like the saying, "well, if we don't make any trades, we still have these guys coming back, which is like a trade". Rubbish.

[2wins87]

8 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

If we are describing the Guardians 2022 run as charmed and lucky, then let's be consistent and describe the Twins 2023 season the same way. 

But the Twins won't really have a stretch run this season. It's been evident for a while now. We are all just drumming our fingers at this point, playing the waiting game, to see who our first round opponent will be and if this is the year we break the streak. Maybe enjoy some baseball in the meantime.

Well, we could also give some credit to the front office for building depth and then refusing to give up on any of it even with half the fan base screaming for the under-performing veterans to be DFAd.

That's probably a bridge too far though.

[Linus]

24 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

Well, we could also give some credit to the front office for building depth and then refusing to give up on any of it even with half the fan base screaming for the under-performing veterans to be DFAd.

That's probably a bridge too far though.

This. I’m not a huge fan of Falvine but they really made some key acquisitions. Farmer has been extremely valuable as has Taylor and others. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

19 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

Well, we could also give some credit to the front office for building depth and then refusing to give up on any of it even with half the fan base screaming for the under-performing veterans to be DFAd.

That's probably a bridge too far though.

You are going to have to give them the credit yourself, because I have no clue what their vision is for this franchise. They have made some transactions, some good, some bad, but the pieces don't fit.

I don't think they consider themselves fortunate or maybe they aren't even aware that they are playing in the worst division in major league history, and that their only competitor in the division for the foreseeable future lost its two best starting pitchers to elbow injuries. 

I do expect Twins Daily to organize a parade on the day the Twins clinch the division. 🙂

 

[terrydactyls]

32 minutes ago, Hubie29 said:

I hate this type of reasoning. Has been going on since I can remember. "We are getting player A,B and C back from injury, so it's like adding 3 players at the deadline without making a trade". HATE this! They are players we have had of and on all year and we are sitting at 5 games over .500. Has anyone ever heard of "adding" better talent than what you are getting back from injury to be a better ballclub? I just don't like the saying, "well, if we don't make any trades, we still have these guys coming back, which is like a trade". Rubbish.

 

Two points.  1.  The Twins haven't had "of" and on all year.  Players A, B, and C have missed significant time.  Therefore, it's like getting a new player.  2.  If you want to add better talent, then which prospects are you willing to lose and does anyone else want them?

[CRF]

I don't think there's any doubt that they're in a better position overall with personnel, than last season. It's not a starting lineup with a handful of minor leaguers, especially in the outfield. The pitching alone takes care of a lot of that too. It's significantly better than last year. If a few of the guys could remember how to hit a baseball, it certainly wouldn't hurt. With Polanco and Lewis coming back soon, that will help tremendously. I don't know what the FO has up their sleeves at the deadline, but a good righty bat would help...and maybe another BP arm, but we'll see what happens. 

[Hubie29]

23 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

 

Two points.  1.  The Twins haven't had "of" and on all year.  Players A, B, and C have missed significant time.  Therefore, it's like getting a new player.  2.  If you want to add better talent, then which prospects are you willing to lose and does anyone else want them?

You couldn't be more wrong. My post was directed towards thinking like yours.  Lane Thomas, and 1 or 2 high end relievers. I am not the GM. I will leave the compensation to them. Just do it

[Reptevia]

All the aforementioned returners or three other guys could be hurt by the end of next week. Still probably won’t be enough to propel CLE past us. 

[terrydactyls]

20 minutes ago, Hubie29 said:

You couldn't be more wrong. My post was directed towards thinking like yours.  Lane Thomas, and 1 or 2 high end relievers. I am not the GM. I will leave the compensation to them. Just do it

Step up and tell us who you are willing to trade for two high end relievers and Lane Thomas.

[mike8791]

After winning 9 of 11, there is no doubt we can allow ourselves a bit of complacency now, but let's not fool ourselves.  There are still a lot of holes on this team!  Kirillof, Julien and Kepler have been hot.  They have carried the offense during this streak.  Looking at the rest of the season thru rose-colored glasses, yes, the offense might stay robust IF they continue and Polanco and Lewis come back soon and start contributing immediately.  What is the likelihood of this happening?

But if the FO really desires to ensure a Central Division title and break the horrific playoff losing streak, they must act boldly this deadline.  Adding a bat like Goldschmidt, Bellinger, or Lane Thomas will be necessary to really improve the odds.  Sure, we can hope Correa/Buxton will rediscover their batting stroke, but depending on this happening is a fool's journey.  We have 100 games to affirm this unlikelihood.  We have 32 years of diddlin' around.  Time to man up and go for the gold!

s.ed

 

 

[Hubie29]

26 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Step up and tell us who you are willing to trade for two high end relievers and Lane Thomas.

Wallner, Larnach, SWR, Varland, Balazovic, Canterino and I would throw in Baldelli.  Lane Thomas is worth a haul by himself. Transformational lead off hitter.  Better than the Shannon Stewart acquisition back in 2003, and he turned the offense around in a snap. 

[tony&rodney]

Nick, I knocked on wood - twice.

[Twins GFP]

2 hours ago, Hubie29 said:

I hate this type of reasoning. Has been going on since I can remember. "We are getting player A,B and C back from injury, so it's like adding 3 players at the deadline without making a trade". HATE this! They are players we have had of and on all year and we are sitting at 5 games over .500. Has anyone ever heard of "adding" better talent than what you are getting back from injury to be a better ballclub? I just don't like the saying, "well, if we don't make any trades, we still have these guys coming back, which is like a trade". Rubbish.

Let's see...
Thielbar has thrown a whole 10.1 innings this year
Lewis has 99 AB in 26 games
Polanco has 127 AB in 30 games

I understand where you are coming from, but this is not the hill to die on.  These guys have not had the impact you say.  Their potential impact could be huge.

[GNess]

Spirited debate here which is fun to read through. Making a trade or elevating a player from within to improve a position is often the goal. Can we acquire a reliever who is likely to outperform Moran, Pagan, Sands etc? Or is someone in the system likely to do that? Same goes for a RH bat - take Lane Thomas - wold he likely outperform Gallo, Larnach, Taylor, Kepler etc? 

This is an oversimplification but improving the teams likely performance increases the chances of success in the postseason. That's a key reason why teams buy at the deadline.

The margins between the playoff teams is not nearly as big as many imagine. 

[Riverbrian]

July 31st is the last outpost to resupply on the Oregon trail. 

We might be rolling into Fort Bridger in good health with ample supplies in our wagons. However, some of those wagons with supplies will get lost in the rivers while crossing those mountains of August and September.

After you get through the mountains... you still got the deserts of October. 

I like the optimism of those who think you can just roll past the July 31st supply camp.

However... I will remind all of you... this is the last chance to resupply. I strongly recommend stopping.

I'd grab a couple more oxen, another wagon with extra guns, ammo, rice, bacon, crackers, dried fruit, McDonalds Happy Meals, whiskey... lots of whiskey. chamber pots, dutch ovens, cell phones, warm clothing, and medicine for the road ahead. 

We just don't know which wagon with which supplies will be lost. There is still quite a journey ahead. 

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

July 31st is the last outpost to resupply on the Oregon trail. 

We might be rolling into Fort Bridger in good health with ample supplies in our wagons. However, some of those wagons with supplies will get lost in the rivers while crossing those mountains of August and September.

After you get through the mountains... you still got the deserts of October. 

I like the optimism of those who think you can just roll past the July 31st supply camp.

However... I will remind all of you... this is the last chance to resupply. I strongly recommend stopping.

I'd grab a couple more oxen, another wagon with extra guns, ammo, rice, bacon, crackers, dried fruit, McDonalds Happy Meals, whiskey... lots of whiskey. chamber pots, dutch ovens, cell phones, warm clothing, and medicine for the road ahead. 

We just don't know which wagon with which supplies will be lost. There is still quite a journey ahead. 

BRILLIANT!

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

July 31st is the last outpost to resupply on the Oregon trail.

[Riverbrian]

3 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Choose your favorite response. 

1. You have to boil the Gallo Kool-Aid to remove the contaminates before you drink it. 

2. BINGO!!! Dysentery completes the blackout on my Buxton disabled list bingo card.   

3. What a crappy way to go. 

[Doctor Gast]

It's not how well you start, it's how well you finish. Last year we started pretty well but after being over-stretched, players that weren't injured, limped along to the finish line (except Correa), This years approach is much better & we should finish strong coming into the post season.

[terrydactyls]

11 hours ago, Hubie29 said:

Wallner, Larnach, SWR, Varland, Balazovic, Canterino and I would throw in Baldelli.  Lane Thomas is worth a haul by himself. Transformational lead off hitter.  Better than the Shannon Stewart acquisition back in 2003, and he turned the offense around in a snap. 

If, as you say, Lane Thomas is worth a haul by himself, this group won't be enough.  Are you willing to add Lee and Lewis?  I'm not.

[Karbo]

12 hours ago, GNess said:

Spirited debate here which is fun to read through. Making a trade or elevating a player from within to improve a position is often the goal. Can we acquire a reliever who is likely to outperform Moran, Pagan, Sands etc? Or is someone in the system likely to do that? Same goes for a RH bat - take Lane Thomas - wold he likely outperform Gallo, Larnach, Taylor, Kepler etc? 

This is an oversimplification but improving the teams likely performance increases the chances of success in the postseason. That's a key reason why teams buy at the deadline.

The margins between the playoff teams is not nearly as big as many imagine. 

Yes he would hit better than Gallo and probably Taylor. Just about any major league semi regular would hit better then Gallo. But I IMO the best move they could make would be to put Buxton on IL until he can play in the field. The two of them are pretty much dead weight at the plate now.

[Peter]

Once twins get healthy they should/will pull away from division-with theilbar/Stewart and hopefully kucheal coming up along with palanco and Lewis back-twins will be firce to be reckoned with. This is year we end playoff losing streak and possibly win World Series. 

[Doctor Wu]

16 hours ago, big dog said:

I don’t know about charmed… we just got Maeda back, Mahle’s been gone Polanco and Paddack missed a lot of time, Lewis and Kiriloff started late and Lewis is now out again, Buxton hasn’t played in the field. We haven’t exactly been without our own challenges. 

I haven't heard anything recently about the status of Paddack. It's almost August; any updates? At this point I assume he won't pitch at all this season.