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On this date in 2022, the Minnesota Twins were technically in a very similar position to the one they are now: six games above .500 and three games ahead in the division.
This could be treated as a cautionary tale. As we now know, that margin was as high as it would ever get. Minnesota's lead in the Central disappeared over the next two weeks and they never got it back, finishing 14 games out.
But let's take a step back and compare the team's current state to where they were at a year ago, just before the bottom fell out. Moreover, let's compare how their top competitor in the division is relatively faring this time around.
While the Twins don't deserve total absolution for their post-break collapse last year, a contrast in roster health was clearly the overriding factor in Cleveland's surpassing them for the division title. The Guardians managed to avoid key injuries almost entirely, losing the fewest days to the injured list of any team in baseball.
Meanwhile, the Twins were on the opposite end of that spectrum, plagued by an ever-growing assortment of ailments. Right around this time, the whole thing was beginning to unravel.
On July 26th, Alex Kirilloff went 0-for-4 against Milwaukee. Days later he'd be shut down for the season. In the following weeks, Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler all went down. Ryan Jeffers had already suffered an essentially season-ending thumb injury.
This year we find ourselves with a much brighter outlook. Whereas Kirilloff was plainly wearing down and searching for answers at this time last year, he now appears to be rounding into form. Kepler and Jeffers are healthy and playing well. Buxton is on pace to play the second-most games of his nine-year career. Polanco is on the comeback trail.
The Twins certainly haven't avoided injuries entirely, with Polanco being a prime example, but there isn't the same air of hopelessness that began to envelope the club a year ago. Players like Polanco, Caleb Thielbar, and Royce Lewis are making their way back with fairly firm timelines, allowing the front office to plan around addition rather than attrition. Others with more ambiguous long-term timelines, like Nick Gordon, Jose Miranda, Jorge Alcala and Chris Paddack, are more role players than mainstays.
Brock Stewart is an exception to this trend – a vital component of the bullpen who is sidelined indefinitely with a vague and worrisome outlook – but he's just that: an exception. The second half of 2022 was overrun by situations like these.
In Cleveland, the turn of fortune has been less favorable. Their charmed life has worn off and the injured list has grown much more crowded for the second-place Guardians, who recently moved Shane Bieber to the 60-day IL where he joins Triston McKenzie. Both top starters will miss most of the second half, if not all of it, leaving Cleveland's chances to overtake the Twins even lower, in practical terms, than their 15% odds (per FanGraphs) might suggest.
Look, I'm not here to tell you anything is promised. You know never what can happen, as we've seen. But if you find yourself feeling a sense of doom and pessimism stemming from what we all went through in 2022, know that the situation in the AL Central is very, very different here in 2023. The same magical formula that enabled the Guardians to overcome the Twins last year won't be replicated with the cosmic balance of injury luck leveling out.
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