Ryan Jeffers is Facing an Uphill Battle

[Ted Wiedmann]

Last year, Ryan Jeffers came up short in his expectations to be the Twins' everyday catcher, but what does his future hold if the most recent rule changes amplify his struggles and limit his strengths?

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

 

There's been plenty of speculation about how MLB's new rule changes will affect hitters and pitchers. It makes sense, given the current roster the Twins have that contains Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, and a plethora of fly-ball pitchers. But, one other Twins player may be significantly affected by these rule changes, catcher Ryan Jeffers. 

Jeffers has a classic backup catcher prototype, lots of power with little contact, and a good defensive reputation. However, the current and some inevitable rule changes could hinder Jeffers' value this year and moving forward. 

First off, we need to understand where Jeffers provides value. This piece will focus purely on his defensive strengths and weaknesses, so offense aside for now. We have comparable quantitative data for three defensive categories: pitch framing, blocking, and throwing out runners. Other aspects of catcher defense, like understanding the pitching staff, calling pitches, leadership, and other intangibles, play a significant part in catching too. Still, from the outside, it's difficult to see who excels in those areas outside of player and staff quotes. 

Let's start with the good for Jeffers, his pitch framing. It's a big reason the Twins have been high on Jeffers coming into the season the last two years. From 2021 to 2022, Jeffers established himself as one of the better pitch framers in baseball. According to Fangprahs, Jeffers' 3.3 framing runs above average (FRM) placed him 22nd among 51 catchers that caught at least 400 innings. However, limiting the pool to catchers that have caught at least 1000 innings over those two years makes him look much more impressive. Jeffers' 6.8 FRM ranks 14th out of 36, notably ahead of the presumed starter, Christian Vazquez, who was 18th at 3.7 FRM. 

This data is supported by Statcast as well. In 2022 Jeffers was 18th out of 60 qualified catchers in catcher framing runs, which was good for the 64th percentile. He also finished 21st out of 60 in strike rate. Jeffers performed similarly in 2021, finishing 21st out of 59 qualified catchers in catcher framing runs and 15th in strike rate. While not among the elite in strike zone manipulation, Jeffers certainly provides value in stealing strikes behind the plate. Unfortunately for Jeffers, with the automated strike zone being tested in the Minor Leagues, this could potentially neutralize his best skillset as a catcher. 

Let's move on to areas Jeffers could improve. The first area is his ability to control the running game. Jeffers had a poor caught-stealing rate in 2022, only throwing out 7 of 38 runners in motion. That is a stolen base success rate of over 81%. This has been a problem for Jeffers throughout his career, as in his three years behind the plate, he has allowed more than 80% (91/113) of stolen base attempts to be successful. 

We can also look to another stat to show Jeffers' struggles in this area. Fangraphs as a stat called stolen base runs saved (rSB). This statistic credits the catchers with their caught stealing rate and the rate at which runners try to steal. In 2022 Jeffers finished with -1 rSB, placing him 35th among 51 catchers that caught at least 400 innings. While -1 might not seem like a huge issue, if we expand the sample, we get a better picture. If we look at catchers that have caught at least 1,000 innings between 2021 and 2022, Jeffers ranks 35th out of 36 in rSB at -5. Only Austin Nola finished below him. 

The third defensive area to focus on is pitch blocking, the first thing youth catchers learn to do. Statcast recently released a new stat called blocks above average, which measures "the number of passed balls and wild pitches compared to the expectation of an average catcher." Jeffers ranks 53rd out of 66 qualified Statcast catchers in this metric with -3. There is a pretty sizable runs gap between the bottom ten players and where Jeffers ranks, as the bottom couple of catchers are -11 and lower, so that 53rd ranking may be a bit misleading. Nonetheless, Jeffers still finished below Gary Sanchez, who was made notorious (probably too much so) for having passed balls and wild pitches issues. 

While it is unclear how the pitch clock, the pickoff limit, and the bigger bases will affect baserunning, they were undoubtedly created to incentivize aggressive baserunning. This likely means more stolen base attempts, bigger leads, and better jumps on balls in the dirt. Because Jeffers already struggles to control the running game as is, these new rules can potentially severely hurt Jeffers' value as a defensive catcher. In addition to his struggles at the plate, if Jeffers' most valuable asset on defense also becomes neutralized, Jeffers’ ceiling as a starting catcher could be in question.

 

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[Rosterman]

An automatic strikezone will change so much. Hey, gives the ump more time to monitor the pitch clock.

Stolen bases start with the pitcher and the pitch selection. Then the catcher has to have a good throw/catch relationship with the second baseman/shortstop, which is why it is necessary going forth to NOT rotate people thru those positions anymore than possible. 

You also have to match your catcher even more now with pitchers. A strong throwing catcher with the pitchers that have trouble holding runners on the bag. Of course, the greand scheme is to always get that first out, and do your best to keep speedsters off the basepaths.

Going to be interesting to see how the stolen base works out with the ghost runner in extra innings. It will be the same for both teams...but if a runner steals third, walking the batter to set up a double play may not prevent a run from scoring.

Sometimes I wish Jeffers would go back to AAA and get a full season working with future players and further developing skills, with the Twins returning Sandy Leon, as an example, to the team as a defense catcher who can also bunt. Just for the year. The Twins could get extra service time for Jeffers. I only make that remark as I sit here in player limbo, wondering about the future of players like Kirilloff, Larnach, Jeffers, Celestino who seemed to have rushed to the majors (or faced significant injuries) and need to produce at a certain level, but can we afford to have them learn on the job...still. If we wish to compete.

 

[jkcarew]

The 2-run homer will continue to dwarf the stolen base in terms of significance/value for the foreseeable future. This type of analysis on the margins of stats that affect base running  suggests it’s a delicate balance. It’s not. It’s not close. It hasn’t been close since 1900-1920…and is in fact the furthest thing from close that it’s been in the history of the game. Tweaking on the margins can make things slightly more interesting, but nothing more than that. Until such time that they make the baseball a beanbag or a new generation of much-larger ballparks are built, this isn’t going to fundamentally change.

If Jeffers mashes occasionally (and frequently  vs lefties)…he has value and is in the majors. If he doesn’t, he doesn’t, and he’s not. Nothing changes.

[JD-TWINS]

He extends his fight leg and isn’t in optimal position to block balls nor to get to his feet & throw. Others in the game have the same approach. His time up & throwing & accuracy of the throw drive his (a catcher’s) ability to throw out runners.

There’s no improving this stolen base stat by getting a relationship with the 2B or SS. The catcher throws to the 1B side of the bag as quickly as possible & whoever is supposed to be there needs to be there.

Catchers platooning is & has been part of most team’s approach for decades. Nothing new here.

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks, Ted for this article. All those negative stats that you quoted will greatly be magnified this year, as you stated, because of the rule changes. IMO pitch framing isn't that hard to learn and it should be obsolete soon. A dinger once in a while doesn't make up for Jeffers defensive deficiencies. 

[Schmoeman5]

To me pitch framing and the stats that measure it are way overrated.  Unless the umpire is Helen Keller. they see the catcher pull in or up and down to steal a strike. My cousin was an MLB umpire for 30 years. He told me he would give pitchers a strike if he hit the catchers glove where they set up. But wouldn't if he saw the catcher dragging balls into the strike zone.

[FlyingFinn]

24 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

My cousin was an MLB umpire for 30 years. He told me he would give pitchers a strike if he hit the catchers glove where they set up

That's just wrong. Pretty soon, the catchers glove is 6" outside the strike zone. Exactly why we need the electronic strike zone, the umpires should be calling strikes as if there isn't any catcher there. Just use the actual strike zone.

[Schmoeman5]

29 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

That's just wrong. Pretty soon, the catchers glove is 6" outside the strike zone. Exactly why we need the electronic strike zone, the umpires should be calling strikes as if there isn't any catcher there. Just use the actual strike zone.

I don't disagree. But if you ever watch catchers set up, it's usually off the plate. Either inside or outside. Basically he was saying you can't fool me. But yeah I agree 100% . Angel hernandez and a few others have strike zones that change with the weather

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Schmoeman5 said:

To me pitch framing and the stats that measure it are way overrated.  Unless the umpire is Helen Keller. they see the catcher pull in or up and down to steal a strike. My cousin was an MLB umpire for 30 years. He told me he would give pitchers a strike if he hit the catchers glove where they set up. But wouldn't if he saw the catcher dragging balls into the strike zone.

Pitch framing is an agent created stat to sell the player.  Its crap.  An umpire that buys "the framing" should be fired. 

Pension?  Not for you.

I will die on this hill.

[stringer bell]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

He extends his fight leg and isn’t in optimal position to block balls nor to get to his feet & throw. Others in the game have the same approach. His time up & throwing & accuracy of the throw drive his (a catcher’s) ability to throw out runners.

There’s no improving this stolen base stat by getting a relationship with the 2B or SS. The catcher throws to the 1B side of the bag as quickly as possible & whoever is supposed to be there needs to be there.

Catchers platooning is & has been part of most team’s approach for decades. Nothing new here.

Twins pitchers need to do what they can to limit base stealing. I can't quantify this, but I would say well over half of the SB attempts are sealed by the time the pitcher releases the ball and the catcher has no chance to throw out the base runner. Stealing second on right handers has been and will continue to be easier and the Twins will most likely carry only two lefties out of thirteen, so the catchers are being asked to do a lot. 

The above doesn't absolve Jeffers of responsibility for his poor throwing. He needs to improve considerably on accuracy while releasing the ball more quickly than he did last year. 

I don't think it really correct to call what the Twins will do and have done platooning. It is job sharing and alternating. Jeffers will see more than his share of lefty pitching, I think, but he'll get a fair number of starts versus right handers. 

[roger]

Anyone watch yesterday’s game against the Sox.  They ran at will on Jeffers.  Glad to see someone present hard data confirming what my eyes have seen of this player.

[Monkeypaws]

I'm old enough to remember when thrown out runner % was an important stat for a catcher, and 20-30% was elite.

Looking at baseball reference, 2 former Twin catchers with excellence in the area:

Kurt Suzuki at 23.5

and...

Gary Sanchez. 33.9.

 

Historically, Damien Miller, Terry Steinbach, Phil Roof, Butch Wynegar, Earl Battey excelled. Wynegar and Battey were over 40%

Back when speed was equal to power, pretty impressive.

[HrbieFan]

What exactly is his 'uphill battle'? He is locked in as a platoon player at worst, I see no downside to that. All of us would give a finger to be in his uphill battle. 

[umterp23]

So overblown analytics continue to be invented to measure who sucks and who is good based on any given stat. So Jeffers doesn't have the strongest arm, bases are enlarged, pitch clock, can't step off the rubber and throw to 1st more than twice, blah, blah, blah.  

Where is the stat about how fast the pitcher gets the ball to home plate to give any catcher, regardless who it is a chance to throw a guy out?  Last time I checked an SB only gets dinged vs the catcher and not the pitcher.  Maybe it exists, but always the catchers fault.

Let's remember who and where Jeffers came from.  Self taught catcher in high school and college with no dedicated catching coach till the minors.  The leg positioning and setup behind the plate will limit every catcher in how the twins have coached the position.  Until the twins make some changes in setup, he will be behind the statistical 8-ball.  

 

[old nurse]

I would think with statcast they could come up with if the stolen base is on the pitcher or catcher. If the runner has a reasonably good jump no infielder could handle the 985 mph throw the catcher would have to make

[old nurse]

When the catching coach wasn’t any good at throwing out runners how is Jeffers going to learn? Steinbach was a Ryan guy so he is not around anymore. When Turner was under his direction he was a fine defensive catcher

[Nine of twelve]

Pitch framing? I suppose it does play a part but I hate that it does. If Jeffers is better than average, good on him. But automated pitch calling will be happening; it's just a question of when. So this skill will become a non-factor soon.

Stolen base percentage? He threw out 7 of 38 baserunners in 2022. It's my understanding that the average catcher will have a caught-stealing rate of 25-30%, so that would have meant throwing out about 9-11 of 38. How much did the difference of 2-4 successful steals make during 2022? My guess is little to none. Now, I realize he was on the IL for a significant amount of time. And of course it's good for a catcher to have a strong arm. But I don't think Jeffers' arm is a major concern, rule changes or not.

I am most concerned with a catcher's blocking skills. This is far more important than stolen base percentage because pitches in the dirt with runners on base are far more common than stolen base attempts, especially when a runner is on third base. It seems Jeffers needs to improve in that area if possible.

[miracleb]

I've commented about pitch framing before.  The goal is to "fool" the umpire.  MLB could easily eliminate this......because it is on video.  The fact that it has not been eliminated speaks volumes as to how MLB feels about umpires and the accuracy of balls and strikes.  

[Riverbrian]

Jeffers needs to hit. 

 

[Trov]

Personally, I think both the areas he needs to improve on defense wise is because that is areas the Twins were willing to have less of to improve pitch framing.  Much has been talked about the set up of having one knee on the ground.  The idea of that set up is to allow for lower target to help with framing.  The Twins have been teaching this set up for catchers for a few years now, even trying to get old school catchers to use it.  

The problem with that set up, is it will hurt both the blocking and throwing runner out.  I mean if you are kneeling on the ground you will not be able to get to feet quickly to throw out a runner, so you throw from knees and use all arm to throw, normally getting less accurate and less power on throw.  Back when no teams tried to steal, this was not an issue, but steals have been up, and with new rules expected to go even higher.  

Also, when blocking pitches it is hard to get out on edges of zone when you are on your knee already.  The way the Twins want their catchers to set up, makes them less like to block pitches, and throw out runner.  It was all done in hopes of increasing framing.  I hope they start to change that up now that steals are up, and we will be moving to robo umps in next few years.  Then framing will be pointless, and really the throwing out runner will be a key factor on defense. 

The issue is not specifically Jeffers, but Twins catchers generally.  

[Karbo]

25 minutes ago, Trov said:

Personally, I think both the areas he needs to improve on defense wise is because that is areas the Twins were willing to have less of to improve pitch framing.  Much has been talked about the set up of having one knee on the ground.  The idea of that set up is to allow for lower target to help with framing.  The Twins have been teaching this set up for catchers for a few years now, even trying to get old school catchers to use it.  

The problem with that set up, is it will hurt both the blocking and throwing runner out.  I mean if you are kneeling on the ground you will not be able to get to feet quickly to throw out a runner, so you throw from knees and use all arm to throw, normally getting less accurate and less power on throw.  Back when no teams tried to steal, this was not an issue, but steals have been up, and with new rules expected to go even higher.  

Also, when blocking pitches it is hard to get out on edges of zone when you are on your knee already.  The way the Twins want their catchers to set up, makes them less like to block pitches, and throw out runner.  It was all done in hopes of increasing framing.  I hope they start to change that up now that steals are up, and we will be moving to robo umps in next few years.  Then framing will be pointless, and really the throwing out runner will be a key factor on defense. 

The issue is not specifically Jeffers, but Twins catchers generally.  

I agree. Get those guys off their knee. Teams will be running at will against Jeffers. Just another coaching issue to fix.

[Platoon]

18 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

To me pitch framing and the stats that measure it are way overrated.  Unless the umpire is Helen Keller. they see the catcher pull in or up and down to steal a strike. My cousin was an MLB umpire for 30 years. He told me he would give pitchers a strike if he hit the catchers glove where they set up. But wouldn't if he saw the catcher dragging balls into the strike zone.

Sadly TD only allow one like at a time!  I never umped MLB, but balls and strikes are still balls and strikes. When a catcher "pulled" a pitch (pulling is NOT framing) and whined when not given the strike call, I would sometimes ask, "if it was a strike why did you pull it 6”?" Never got an answer to that question! 

[Platoon]

"Jeffers has a classic backup catcher prototype, lots of power with little contact, and a good defensive reputation. However, the current and some inevitable rule changes could hinder Jeffers' value this year and moving forward."

 

Not being able to throw and not being adept at blocking would seem non conducive to a "good defensive reputation". It takes a lot of framing to recover from a missed steal or a passed ball. And no one ever talks about the trepidation that pitchers have for throwing that down and out 1-2 slider with men on base to a catcher who is not adept at blocking balls. Don’t get me started on the one legged catching with men on base! 

[Ted Wiedmann]

5 hours ago, umterp23 said:

So overblown analytics continue to be invented to measure who sucks and who is good based on any given stat. So Jeffers doesn't have the strongest arm, bases are enlarged, pitch clock, can't step off the rubber and throw to 1st more than twice, blah, blah, blah.  

Where is the stat about how fast the pitcher gets the ball to home plate to give any catcher, regardless who it is a chance to throw a guy out?  Last time I checked an SB only gets dinged vs the catcher and not the pitcher.  Maybe it exists, but always the catchers fault.

Let's remember who and where Jeffers came from.  Self taught catcher in high school and college with no dedicated catching coach till the minors.  The leg positioning and setup behind the plate will limit every catcher in how the twins have coached the position.  Until the twins make some changes in setup, he will be behind the statistical 8-ball.  

 

 

5 hours ago, umterp23 said:

So overblown analytics continue to be invented to measure who sucks and who is good based on any given stat. So Jeffers doesn't have the strongest arm, bases are enlarged, pitch clock, can't step off the rubber and throw to 1st more than twice, blah, blah, blah.  

Where is the stat about how fast the pitcher gets the ball to home plate to give any catcher, regardless who it is a chance to throw a guy out?  Last time I checked an SB only gets dinged vs the catcher and not the pitcher.  Maybe it exists, but always the catchers fault.

Let's remember who and where Jeffers came from.  Self taught catcher in high school and college with no dedicated catching coach till the minors.  The leg positioning and setup behind the plate will limit every catcher in how the twins have coached the position.  Until the twins make some changes in setup, he will be behind the statistical 8-ball.  

 

They do make rSB for pitchers too 

[joefish]

I think our pitchers do a poor job of holding runners on. Now it's gonna look worse due to the rule changes.  It's going to affect all pitchers and catchers. This is gonna hurt the stats. Damned the data. 

[jorgenswest]

Sanchez must have had near the same mix of a pitchers. He was better than league average at throwing out runners and far better than Jeffers last year.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Sanchez must have had near the same mix of a pitchers. He was better than league average at throwing out runners and far better than Jeffers last year.

Yeah, the idea that teams basically ran at will on Jeffers because of Twins pitchers is more urban legend than fact.

Jeffers has a slow release and doesn't throw well. That's why he can't throw out runners.