Ryan Jeffers is Facing an Uphill Battle

An automatic strikezone will change so much. Hey, gives the ump more time to monitor the pitch clock.

Stolen bases start with the pitcher and the pitch selection. Then the catcher has to have a good throw/catch relationship with the second baseman/shortstop, which is why it is necessary going forth to NOT rotate people thru those positions anymore than possible. 

You also have to match your catcher even more now with pitchers. A strong throwing catcher with the pitchers that have trouble holding runners on the bag. Of course, the greand scheme is to always get that first out, and do your best to keep speedsters off the basepaths.

Going to be interesting to see how the stolen base works out with the ghost runner in extra innings. It will be the same for both teams...but if a runner steals third, walking the batter to set up a double play may not prevent a run from scoring.

Sometimes I wish Jeffers would go back to AAA and get a full season working with future players and further developing skills, with the Twins returning Sandy Leon, as an example, to the team as a defense catcher who can also bunt. Just for the year. The Twins could get extra service time for Jeffers. I only make that remark as I sit here in player limbo, wondering about the future of players like Kirilloff, Larnach, Jeffers, Celestino who seemed to have rushed to the majors (or faced significant injuries) and need to produce at a certain level, but can we afford to have them learn on the job...still. If we wish to compete.

The 2-run homer will continue to dwarf the stolen base in terms of significance/value for the foreseeable future. This type of analysis on the margins of stats that affect base running  suggests it’s a delicate balance. It’s not. It’s not close. It hasn’t been close since 1900-1920…and is in fact the furthest thing from close that it’s been in the history of the game. Tweaking on the margins can make things slightly more interesting, but nothing more than that. Until such time that they make the baseball a beanbag or a new generation of much-larger ballparks are built, this isn’t going to fundamentally change.

If Jeffers mashes occasionally (and frequently  vs lefties)…he has value and is in the majors. If he doesn’t, he doesn’t, and he’s not. Nothing changes.

Thanks, Ted for this article. All those negative stats that you quoted will greatly be magnified this year, as you stated, because of the rule changes. IMO pitch framing isn't that hard to learn and it should be obsolete soon. A dinger once in a while doesn't make up for Jeffers defensive deficiencies. 

24 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

My cousin was an MLB umpire for 30 years. He told me he would give pitchers a strike if he hit the catchers glove where they set up

That's just wrong. Pretty soon, the catchers glove is 6" outside the strike zone. Exactly why we need the electronic strike zone, the umpires should be calling strikes as if there isn't any catcher there. Just use the actual strike zone.

Anyone watch yesterday’s game against the Sox.  They ran at will on Jeffers.  Glad to see someone present hard data confirming what my eyes have seen of this player.

I'm old enough to remember when thrown out runner % was an important stat for a catcher, and 20-30% was elite.

Looking at baseball reference, 2 former Twin catchers with excellence in the area:

Kurt Suzuki at 23.5

and...

Gary Sanchez. 33.9.

Historically, Damien Miller, Terry Steinbach, Phil Roof, Butch Wynegar, Earl Battey excelled. Wynegar and Battey were over 40%

Back when speed was equal to power, pretty impressive.

What exactly is his 'uphill battle'? He is locked in as a platoon player at worst, I see no downside to that. All of us would give a finger to be in his uphill battle. 

So overblown analytics continue to be invented to measure who sucks and who is good based on any given stat. So Jeffers doesn't have the strongest arm, bases are enlarged, pitch clock, can't step off the rubber and throw to 1st more than twice, blah, blah, blah.  

Where is the stat about how fast the pitcher gets the ball to home plate to give any catcher, regardless who it is a chance to throw a guy out?  Last time I checked an SB only gets dinged vs the catcher and not the pitcher.  Maybe it exists, but always the catchers fault.

Let's remember who and where Jeffers came from.  Self taught catcher in high school and college with no dedicated catching coach till the minors.  The leg positioning and setup behind the plate will limit every catcher in how the twins have coached the position.  Until the twins make some changes in setup, he will be behind the statistical 8-ball.  

I would think with statcast they could come up with if the stolen base is on the pitcher or catcher. If the runner has a reasonably good jump no infielder could handle the 985 mph throw the catcher would have to make

When the catching coach wasn’t any good at throwing out runners how is Jeffers going to learn? Steinbach was a Ryan guy so he is not around anymore. When Turner was under his direction he was a fine defensive catcher

Pitch framing? I suppose it does play a part but I hate that it does. If Jeffers is better than average, good on him. But automated pitch calling will be happening; it's just a question of when. So this skill will become a non-factor soon.

Stolen base percentage? He threw out 7 of 38 baserunners in 2022. It's my understanding that the average catcher will have a caught-stealing rate of 25-30%, so that would have meant throwing out about 9-11 of 38. How much did the difference of 2-4 successful steals make during 2022? My guess is little to none. Now, I realize he was on the IL for a significant amount of time. And of course it's good for a catcher to have a strong arm. But I don't think Jeffers' arm is a major concern, rule changes or not.

I am most concerned with a catcher's blocking skills. This is far more important than stolen base percentage because pitches in the dirt with runners on base are far more common than stolen base attempts, especially when a runner is on third base. It seems Jeffers needs to improve in that area if possible.

I've commented about pitch framing before.  The goal is to "fool" the umpire.  MLB could easily eliminate this......because it is on video.  The fact that it has not been eliminated speaks volumes as to how MLB feels about umpires and the accuracy of balls and strikes.  

Personally, I think both the areas he needs to improve on defense wise is because that is areas the Twins were willing to have less of to improve pitch framing.  Much has been talked about the set up of having one knee on the ground.  The idea of that set up is to allow for lower target to help with framing.  The Twins have been teaching this set up for catchers for a few years now, even trying to get old school catchers to use it.  

The problem with that set up, is it will hurt both the blocking and throwing runner out.  I mean if you are kneeling on the ground you will not be able to get to feet quickly to throw out a runner, so you throw from knees and use all arm to throw, normally getting less accurate and less power on throw.  Back when no teams tried to steal, this was not an issue, but steals have been up, and with new rules expected to go even higher.  

Also, when blocking pitches it is hard to get out on edges of zone when you are on your knee already.  The way the Twins want their catchers to set up, makes them less like to block pitches, and throw out runner.  It was all done in hopes of increasing framing.  I hope they start to change that up now that steals are up, and we will be moving to robo umps in next few years.  Then framing will be pointless, and really the throwing out runner will be a key factor on defense. 

The issue is not specifically Jeffers, but Twins catchers generally.  

18 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

To me pitch framing and the stats that measure it are way overrated.  Unless the umpire is Helen Keller. they see the catcher pull in or up and down to steal a strike. My cousin was an MLB umpire for 30 years. He told me he would give pitchers a strike if he hit the catchers glove where they set up. But wouldn't if he saw the catcher dragging balls into the strike zone.

Sadly TD only allow one like at a time!  I never umped MLB, but balls and strikes are still balls and strikes. When a catcher "pulled" a pitch (pulling is NOT framing) and whined when not given the strike call, I would sometimes ask, "if it was a strike why did you pull it 6”?" Never got an answer to that question! 

"Jeffers has a classic backup catcher prototype, lots of power with little contact, and a good defensive reputation. However, the current and some inevitable rule changes could hinder Jeffers' value this year and moving forward."

Not being able to throw and not being adept at blocking would seem non conducive to a "good defensive reputation". It takes a lot of framing to recover from a missed steal or a passed ball. And no one ever talks about the trepidation that pitchers have for throwing that down and out 1-2 slider with men on base to a catcher who is not adept at blocking balls. Don’t get me started on the one legged catching with men on base! 

I think our pitchers do a poor job of holding runners on. Now it's gonna look worse due to the rule changes.  It's going to affect all pitchers and catchers. This is gonna hurt the stats. Damned the data. 

Sanchez must have had near the same mix of a pitchers. He was better than league average at throwing out runners and far better than Jeffers last year.