Twins Benefit from MLB's First Draft Lottery, Move Up 8 Spots

[Cody Christie]

Major League Baseball held its first-ever Draft Lottery on Tuesday night. Were the Twins lucky enough to move into the top-six picks? Yes! 

Image courtesy of Twins Daily

MLB’s new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) instituted a Draft Lottery like the NBA and NHL. Previously, the team with the worst record from the previous season was guaranteed the top overall pick. Now, the worst teams aren’t guaranteed a top-six pick, and the bottom three teams have the same odds of getting the top pick. The 18 teams that missed the postseason have a chance at the top overall pick. Minnesota entered the draft with the 13th-best odds of receiving the top pick (0.9%).  

There are also restrictions on how often a team can participate in the lottery. Teams that don’t receive revenue sharing (large-market teams) can not receive a lottery pick in consecutive drafts. Revenue-sharing recipients (small-market teams) are prohibited from being awarded a lottery pick in three consecutive years. Teams prohibited from a lottery pick can’t receive higher than the 10th overall pick. 

MLB Draft Lottery Results
As expected, the 2023 MLB Draft order shifted because of the Draft Lottery. The Twins made the biggest jump of any team by moving from the 13th overall pick to fifth overall. For 2022, the first 18 picks will follow this order: 
1. Pirates (Up 2)
2. Nationals  (Down 1)
3. Tigers (Up 3)
4. Rangers (Up 3)
5. Twins (Up 8)
6. A's (Down 4)
7. Reds (Down 3) 
8. Royals (Down 3)
9. Rockies (Down 1)
10. Marlins (Down 1)
11. Angels (Down 1)
12. D-Backs (Down 1)
13. Cubs (Down 1)
14. Red Sox
15. White Sox
16. Giants
17. Orioles
18. Brewers

Competitive Balance Round Pick
Earlier this week, MLB announced the Competitive Balance Draft picks to teams that fall in the bottom 10 in revenue or market size. Competitive Balance Round A takes place after the completion of the first round, and these picks are the only ones that clubs are allowed to trade. Minnesota can hang on to this top-40 pick, or it might be an intriguing piece to trade this winter. The Round A picks are as follows:
1. Mariners
2. Rays
3. Brewers
4. Twins
5. Marlins
6. Tigers
7. Reds
8. A’s

Minnesota’s Recent First-Round Picks 
In the 2022 MLB Draft, the Twins took Brooks Lee with the eighth overall pick, and he has shot up national top-100 lists because of his strong professional debut. During the 2021 MLB Draft, Minnesota had two picks in the top 36. Chase Petty was the team’s first pick (26th overall), and the Twins traded him to the Reds organization for Sonny Gray. Noah Miller was a Competitive Balance Round pick (36th overall) and posted a .627 OPS in 108 Low-A games last season. 

The 2020 MLB Draft was shortened due to the pandemic, and Minnesota selected college slugger Aaron Sabato with the 27th overall pick. He ended last year at Double-A and posted a .774 OPS for the 2022 season. In 2019, the Twins also had two first-round picks, with Keoni Cavaco selected 13th overall and Matt Wallner picked in the Competitive Balance Round. Wallner has entered the team’s long-term plans after a tremendous season in the upper minors. Cavaco will likely spend 2023 at Cedar Rapids as he continues to develop his swing. 

What thoughts do you have on the first-ever MLB Draft lottery? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Mike Sixel]

Huge jump. Wow.

[rickyriolo]

Twins got lucky To move to 5 Let us hope their luck continues 

[roger]

Fantastic, doubly so at #5 and #34. 

[D.C Twins]

This is a big deal indeed.... great incremental improvement in the attempt to mitigate tank-o-ramas

[terrydactyls]

Is the 5th pick good for all rounds or just the first?  If it carries over to all rounds, the Twins would have picks 5, 34, and 43.  That's a nice position to be in.

[Dman]

Wow, when does a MN sports team get lucky enough to move up 8 spots?  That is crazy cool.  So they get a top 5 pick in 2023 as well as number 34 or so.  I was kind of hoping they would go pitcher at 13 and 34 but since they moved up it probably will be another bat at number 5.  If they do take a bat again would really like to see the next three picks go to pitchers.  They need to replenish the farm after trading some of their better arms at the deadline.  Still hoping they go pitcher heavy in the 2023 draft but really, really nice to have a top 5 pick.

[ashbury]

Should be something tasty on the menu at #5.

I could be forgetting a time, but my recollection is that the Timberwolves went years, maybe decades, before ever getting one lousy break in the ping pong ball lottery, i.e. moving up in the draft from what their straight record would have awarded them. The year Shaq and Mourning went #1-2? Wolves drafted #3 and got Laettner as the booby prize, despite no team having fewer wins the previous season. (The next year with Shaq the Magic won 41 games, and still got the ping pong ball for #1!) That sort of luck.

So the Twins excelled the Wolves on the first try.

/ edit - ninjad to a degree by Dman

[HrbieFan]

5 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Is the 5th pick good for all rounds or just the first?  If it carries over to all rounds, the Twins would have picks 5, 34, and 43.  That's a nice position to be in.

Just the first round. In addition to getting a kid with better upside, Twins add millions to their allotted money

[Reptevia]

This is a very rare thing to happen. Draft lotteries have not been kind to Minnesota. 

[jrod23]

I am excited about this.  The #5 pick is phenomenal.  However in a draft where 620 kids are drafted, it definitely doesn't hold the same value as an NBA lottery.  But like I said, I'm excited.  If we had NBA value to these picks, could you imagine the top end pitcher we could get for that pick though?  ...But seriously, I am excited.  However, even flipping this for a kid like Andrew Painter.  I'd be all on board.

[bunsen82]

To me this is where it is big. It seems like most years past the number 1 picks there is a tier if 4-6 really solid players and them after that a drop off. The twins benefitted this year in 2022 as to me there were 7 solid prospects and then a drop off. However 1-2 gems drafted players rated lower either due to falling in love with a prospect or managing the draft pool. We then had brooks Lee fall in our laps.  

[mikelink45]

I hate to say this, but I feel sorry for the really lousy teams who fall down like the A's, Reds, Royals.  But since that is the system I am always delighted when our team wins out and now let's get someone and not trade them.  I am still sorry about Petty and want to hold on to Lee.  Let's build the pipeline. 

[darin617]

1 hour ago, roger said:

Fantastic, doubly so at #5 and #34. 

Do the qualifying offer picks happen before or after?

[Seth Stohs]

I looked up what the slot values were in 2022. I'd imagine the 2023 numbers will be similar, a little higher. 

 

[Nashvilletwin]

Last year Lee miraculously fell to us at 8. For 2023, at the moment I’m hoping the Tennessee pitcher Dollander or Florida power hitting OF Langford somehow is there for us at 5.  But they certainly wouldn’t be there at 13!

[Doctor Gast]

God be praised! I'll be very interested in watching the college talent, especially catching. I got some in mind already. Kyle Teel comes to mind but there are others, like Brady Neal as a sleeper.

[old nurse]

Trea Turner or Nick Gordon? Brandon Nimmo or Bubba Starling? Kyle Tucker or somebody who didn’t pan out and I forgot the name already?  Lots of luck involved in the draft

[tarheeltwinsfan]

10 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I hate to say this, but I feel sorry for the really lousy teams who fall down like the A's, Reds, Royals.  But since that is the system I am always delighted when our team wins out and now let's get someone and not trade them.  I am still sorry about Petty and want to hold on to Lee.  Let's build the pipeline. 

Maybe the Twins can trade their #5 draft pick to the Reds for Petty. (Smile)

[Otaknam]

Great news! Let’s hope the pick has as much potential as the Lee pick did in 2022. Maybe a fast moving college starting pitcher similar to Kumar Rocker. 

[Trov]

I believe the draft lottery benefits the teams that are near the playoffs that got that chance to move up.  There really is very little difference between number 10 and 15, but a big difference between 5 and 10, generally in MLB drafts.  I also feel there is much less of a difference between 1 and 5 than 5 and 10. 

Unlike in NBA where there is normally a clear number 1 or 1 and 2, MLB rarely has a clear number 1.  Also, number 1 generally have decent MLB careers, but rarely do they actually end up being the best in their draft.  This is why I have long said teams do not tank for the number 1 pick, they tank for other reasons.  One, is to have higher picks to have more money to spread around for later round picks to sign over slot value, have more international money to spend, sometimes get competitive balance picks to use or trade, and to suppress service time of their top prospects.  

I am happy for Twins moving up to the 5th pick, as that pick is much more likely to help at MLB level than the 13th, but you never know.  However, if you look back, very rarely, is the number 1 pick the best player in a draft.  Now, they still have a great chance to be a good player, the number 1 overall is rarely a complete bust as well.  

[puckstopper1]

Christmas came early in Twinkietown!  Yes - the "right" pick needs to be made, but there should be a much better chance of success at #5 vs. #13.

[nicksaviking]

How did the Twins, Mariners and Tigers get in the Comp A pool? I know the picks are minorly determined by winning percentage so that MIGHT explain why they're ahead of the Guardians, but how did those teams sneak ahead of the Pirates, Royals and Orioles?

[MN_ExPat]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

How did the Twins, Mariners and Tigers get in the Comp A pool? I know the picks are minorly determined by winning percentage so that MIGHT explain why they're ahead of the Guardians, but how did those teams sneak ahead of the Pirates, Royals and Orioles?

I have to double check, but I THINK it flip flops. Last year the Twins had the Comp Round B pick. 

[jmlease1]

exciting and excellent news. MN fans are not conditioned to moving up in a lottery, only sliding the other way. Should be a couple of good options at #5 and you never know who might slide. It's an opportunity to add more high-end talent to the system and that's always a good thing. I doubt anyone would complain about getting another player like Brooks Lee!

[gman]

There is a long way between now and next July, but Baseball America made their first mock draft with the new lottery draft order.

#5 Jacob Gonzalez   ss  Mississippi

#13 Matt Shaw   ss   Maryland

[umterp23]

Let's not forget that the Pirates who have the # 1 pick and don't really like to spend money, may not take the #1 on the board as they don't want to spend big money or their picks.  So Twins picking at #5 is really like stealing a top 3 pick if things break their way.  I'm a Terp grad so I got a chance to see Shaw play a few games last year and he is very fundamentally sound and has to college pop to his bat.  He tore up the Cape Cod league this past summer, so he well on his way to becoming a great get for someone in the upcoming draft.  Terps also have a really good lefty swinging catcher in Shliger who put himself on the map last spring and summer months.  Shliger batted leadoff as the catcher had a wonderful spring. Go Twins

[roger]

14 hours ago, darin617 said:

Do the qualifying offer picks happen before or after?

The group A picks are sandwiched between the first and second rounds.  

[Mike Sixel]

I'm really surprised at the tone here.....

The delta in likelihood of stardom at pick 5 to 13 is staggering when you look at the research. This is nothing to be anything but very happy about.

[puckstopper1]

22 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm really surprised at the tone here.....

The delta in likelihood of stardom at pick 5 to 13 is staggering when you look at the research. This is nothing to be anything but very happy about.

True Mike - but we are Twins fans (and likely Minnesota sports fans in general) so we are very accustomed to not having things work out for the best for our teams. ?