The Twins Have the Pieces for a Dominant Starting Rotation in 2027

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

To some extent, the Twins’ starting rotation this year was doomed from the start—not in the sense that the rotation wasn’t good enough, or that Minnesota didn’t have enough solid options heading into the season, but in that they were already diminished and destined to lose even more top arms to injury.

Before Pablo López could even throw a spring training inning, he went down with an elbow injury that would ultimately cost him the entire season. Just like that, the Twins lost the guy who had been their most established frontline starter and were forced to adjust. Then, in mid-April. Mick Abel was coming off of two scoreless outings and looked like he was beginning to establish himself as another legitimate option in the rotation when he was sidelined with inflammation. That would be the last we would see of Abel this season.

You can add Joe Ryan to the list, as well. Ryan was not only healthy for most of the year, but pitching like one of the best starters in the American League through the All-Star break. Then, right in the middle of the Twins’ stretch run, a glute strain (literally) destabilized and (figuratively) derailed him. After a few brutal starts, it landed him on the injured list and put a damper on what had been a legitimately Cy Young-caliber half-season.

You can't blame it all on bad luck. Durability has not been a strong suit for Ryan or Abel, and even Bailey Ober and López have long injury histories. Nor could anyone claim to be shocked when David Festa suffered one setback after another, leading to surgery that puts even his readiness for spring training in some doubt. Rather than calling this outcome bad luck, maybe we should say that the team needed a bit of good luck when it came to pitching health—but the baseball gods denied them that. While that has probably been extremely frustrating for the organization (and obviously for fans watching things unfold), there's another way to look at it. Assuming the guys currently recovering are able to get and stay healthy, the problems Minnesota experienced this season might set them up extremely well for next year.

In a strange way, you can find more solace in the big, extremely costly individual injuries that sideline some pitchers for an entire season than in things like glute strains or 15-day stints on the shelf with soreness. For most pitchers, surgeries like the ones López and Abel each had this year offer some protection from the same kinds of issues in the short term. The long recovery time is no fun, but the risk of reinjury is very low, for a little bit. Therefore, when such injuries cluster together, you can be moderately hopeful of a compensating healthy campaign for those pitchers the following year—barring setbacks before they get back on the mound, which, of course, is a real worry.

Healthy and humming, Ryan, López and Abel comprise a scary trio. And you can add a fourth pitcher to that conversation, in Taj Bradley. Bradley’s season hasn't exactly been consistent. He’ll put together three really good starts, and then seemingly follow them up with three that leave you wondering what happened. But even with those ups and downs, there's a lot to like about the direction in which he's heading. His ERA and expected ERA both sit in the 3.00s, while his strikeout rate is a robust 27.2%.

In terms of pure stuff, there is legitimate frontline upside here. He's also gotten better at avoiding the full-fledged blowup outing. Last season, Bradley made 27 starts, and six of them saw him post a Game Score under 30. (Game Score is an old Bill James-built stat designed to evaluate a start at a glance; 50 is average and higher is better.) This season, he's already made 27 starts, and only two of them came in under 30. Twenty of them have had a Game Score of 50 or higher; only 15 of his 27 in 2025 were that good. Bradley took a big step forward in 2026, and another winter of development could allow him to take another step in 2027.

López, Ryan, Bradley, and Abel lay the foundation for what might turn into one of the best rotations in the league next season. This season has also seen big progress from Zebby Matthews (whose ERA has come down by just over a run each year of his career, so far) and Connor Prielipp. Both guys have mid-rotation upside, and are sturdy options for the back end of the rotation even right now. Meanwhile, top starting prospect Riley Quick is not so far off on the horizon as not to have a hope of arriving in 2027.

Obviously, not everyone is going to stay healthy. Injuries happen, trades will take place, and other moves are going to reshape the roster over the offseason. The team might well retain Ober and/or Dean Kremer, while trading Ryan. The cruel flipside to being hopeful because López and Abel might be sheltered from further injury is the knowledge that next season could be the one in which Bradley, Matthews or Prielipp breaks. There's also no guarantee that every young pitcher takes the developmental step Minnesota is hoping for. That’s just the reality of projecting a rotation this far in advance.

But when you look at the talent currently in place, it’s difficult not to get excited. A healthy López, a healthy Ryan. Bradley continuing to develop, Abel returning and building on his upside, and both Prielipp and Matthews competing for opportunities and potentially providing legitimate depth—that's a lot of talent. After everything that went wrong for the Twins’ starting rotation this season, it would be pretty ironic if the injuries and setbacks ultimately created a situation where the group enters 2027 healthier, deeper, and more dangerous than it has been in quite some time.

The Twins still have work to do this offseason, and plenty can change between now and Opening Day. But as things currently stand, Minnesota’s projected starting rotation entering the 2027 season looks like it could make good on the promise that never turned into sufficient production for the 2026 squad.

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[Craig Arko]

So, who do you suppose will be blamed when that doesn’t work out?

[dberthia]

I'm reserving any real "dominant rotation" optimism until all these guys prove they can consistently stay on the field. Until then, it's just hope.

[PDX Twin]

I'd be very interested in some numbers comparing the Twins' pitching injury record with other teams. Given the way pitchers abuse their arms to achieve greater velocity and/or spin, some injuries are to be expected. But the oft-cited example of Rice University over-using their pitchers suggests that use and training can play a role. 

Are the Twins' starters more susceptible to long-term injuries than those of other teams? I'm sure this has been studied, but I don't read that literature.

[Patzky]

On paper it's one of the better rotations in the AL. Getting from paper to the mound is the trick.  No worries in choosing an ace, a more useful conversation would be in juggling the rotation so opponents get a different look from game to game. Taj, Abel, Zebby and Pablo are power pitchers; Ober and Kremer, finesse pitchers relying on control, Prielipp and Ryan have unique approaches emphasizing release points and out pitches. That's eight possible arms, you can guess the number of games lost due to injury. Hopefully four of em make it through the entire year unscathed and not in need of a reset.

[ashbury]

For every team X not in the very top revenue tier, X Daily probably has an article explaining how if all the injured arms come back at 100% on Opening Day and all the pieces fall into place, the rotation is on the verge of dominating.

I'm too young to be this jaded.  Sorry.

[PuckettPond]

Zebby & Konnor will be starters opening day. Where's Ober?

[Whitey333]

Itself always the same with the Twind:  if this then that, hope this hope that. This is lopez 2nd tommy john surgery.  Plus next year is last year of his contract.  There is some reason to be optimistic for sure. But the hope and hype continues.  Its The Twins Way.

[Wedman13]

8 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Itself always the same with the Twind:  if this then that, hope this hope that. This is lopez 2nd tommy john surgery.  Plus next year is last year of his contract.  There is some reason to be optimistic for sure. But the hope and hype continues.  Its The Twins Way.

I made it through that post :)  (I think).  In fairness, these are top flight guys.  Will it come together?  Probably not

[gmwannabe]

Sign free agent to be Gausman or trade for a guy like Detmer's. Don't bet on good health with pitching.

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

So, who do you suppose will be blamed when that doesn’t work out?

A) Pohlad

B) Zoll

C) Shelton

D) The Players

E) Buxton’s health (I’m not sure, but it’s usually on the list. 😀)

[Historyking88]

Kremer and Ober both need to be gone next year. They need to trade Ryan for whatever top pitching prospect they can get for him. And there is no guarantee that Pablo will be ready to go next year. They need to trade for an upgrade in the rotation like Emerson Hancock. Their starting rotation, bullpen, and any of their pitching depth is nothing but uncertain going into next season. 

[Danchat]

The conversation starts with do they tender Ober and/or Kremer... and of course whether they trade anybody. If nobody gets traded, do they pay up for those two when Zebby is better than them, Prieplipp and Abel have immense upside, etc? They need depth, but we also don't want to be in a situation where Ober/Kremer's maintaining a > 5.00 ERA and the young starters are ready to go at AAA but they won't cut the vet off because they've already sunk money into them. It's an intriguing situation with plenty of options.

[LastOnePicked]

3 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

So, who do you suppose will be blamed when that doesn’t work out?

I feel like Loki the Norse god of mischief oughta start taking some heat for the Twins' failures.

[Mike Sixel]

I prefer Lopez, Bradley, Abel, Prielipp, Matthews. With the acquisition of a couple AA pitchers in trades behind them, over Ober and Kremer putting up five ERA and being out of the playoff hunt by August because the pitching isn't good, but at least they have depth.... I'm interested in upside, not floors. 

[RaoulDuke]

I would guess Ryan gets traded, unfortunately his return has diminished after another bad/ injured 2nd half but they are not going to give him front line money.  I think Ober gets non tendered, as impressive as it is that he is serviceable at 87 mph it will not last and he is due some real money in his last year of arbitration.

Pablo/ Taj/ Prielipp/ Abel/ Zebby/ Kremer/ Rojas?.  That is the start to a good rotation if things go well but sorely lacking in proven success and depth.  I think the supposed increased spending should include someone that can take that #3 spot or better.  Hopefully a Ryan return includes an injection into the near to the majors arms because that is where the system is lacking now.

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

This is the ultimate in speculative and premature.  Take a breath.

IF everyone returns healthy. . . 

AND everyone pitches up to their ability, . . like the most dominant month of their entire career. . . 

AND nothing else weird happens. . . 

ETC., ETC., ETC.,

Many teams have dominant rotations on paper, but it usually doesn't work out that way.  In the Twins' case, they have way more question marks than answers a this point.  I personally would be thrilled with a top 10 rotation, but fear it is more likely average -- which is actually a lot better than what we are now.  

 

[Pykkman]

Is Rojas a reliever going forward?   I assumed he would be in this mix too? 
 

[MeleMouth]

Most teams can do this fantasy "if everything goes right we'll be golden" game.

Cleveland's payroll for 2027 right now sits at $39 million. Messick, Williams, Bibee, Cantillo, and Cecconi will all return, plus they'll have Logan Allen and all have that payroll room.

K.C. will have Wacha, Lugo, plus the fantasy health of Ragans and Gonsolin, and about $60 million in payroll room to get to this year's number.

ChiSox return four of their five starters, including deadline acquisition Castillo, as well as Schultz in AAA, who should be better next year, and maybe Smith will make a comeback, plus perhaps this year's success encourages the new owners to add salary.

Detroit: Valdez, Ryan, Montero, Jobe, Anderson, Melton, Olson, plus a payroll right now that is 50% of this year's.

All of them could tell themselves a story about good health and good fortune in development that gives them the best staff in the AL Central.

[Mike Sixel]

The negativity is truly something.....

[jkcarew]

I’m buying on the futures of Bradley, Abel, Matthews, and Prielipp. If you have to count on some younger-type guys that are “ready” but haven’t really established themselves yet, I think you could do a lot worse than those 4. Who knows? I do think there’s realistic, not imaginary, upside with these guys.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Keep an eye on Rojas. 

[saviking]

35 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

The negativity is truly something.....

It comes with our top potchers going down every year. It's like some kind on jinx. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

If wishes and buts were candy and nuts, we'd all have a merry Christmas.

[HerbieFan]

I've seen some assuming Ober and Kremer get non-tendered.  With Pablo and Abel coming back from injuries, and about 20 innings combined this year, I don't know how you can just non-tender them?  

Zebby certainly has pitched himself into the conversation.  If they get anything....ANYTHING....from Festa it's gravy.

I'd love for there to be enough depth to unleash Rojas as a 2-inning bullpen weapon (assuming he can figure out where the strike zone is!)  :)

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Pykkman said:

Is Rojas a reliever going forward?   I assumed he would be in this mix too? 
 

He could be the best of the bunch