Trading Ryan Jeffers Would Be the Wrong Move for the Twins

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images

The Twins are probably going to be active over the next few weeks, and regardless of whether they believe they can still make a run at the AL Central or not, roster moves are coming. Names like Trevor Larnach, Kody Clemens, Josh Bell, and a handful of others have all surfaced as potential trade candidates. One of those "others" is Ryan Jeffers.

It makes sense, on the surface. Jeffers is set to become a free agent after the season. If the Twins have already decided he isn't part of their long-term plans, then the logical move would be to see what kind of return they can get, rather than letting him walk for nothing in free agency. But I think trading Jeffers would be a huge mistake, for a few reasons.

Before landing on the injured list in May, Jeffers wasn't just having a good season. He was quite literally one of the best hitters in Major League Baseball. Through 37 games, Jeffers was hitting .295 with an outstanding .408 on-base percentage, while posting an even 1-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That's incredibly difficult to do, especially for a catcher, and it reflected just how complete his offensive game had become.

The underlying data backed it up, too. His quality of contact had reached career-best levels, and perhaps even more importantly, his bat-to-ball skills continued to improve. It was shaping up to be the best version of Jeffers we'd ever seen. But then came the injury. Jeffers suffered a fractured hamate bone in his left hand and has spent the last couple of months on the injured list. Whether it's simply the effects of a lengthy layoff or the process of getting back into game rhythm, it's reasonable to expect his production to take a step back after he returns. Because of that, it's entirely possible Jeffers won't look like the same hitter during the second half of the season. Ironically, though, that might actually work in the Twins' favor.

If Jeffers’ production declines, his value in free agency may take a hit as well. Instead of pricing himself into a contract the Twins aren't comfortable matching, a quieter finish to the season could make him significantly more affordable this winter. Of course, his value goes beyond what he can do at the plate.

One of the more underrated developments this season was what Jeffers brought behind the plate through the ABS challenge system. While he's never been known as an elite defensive catcher, Jeffers quickly became one of the more valuable catchers in baseball when it came to challenging balls and strikes. Those successful challenges created extra strikes for Twins pitchers and erased bad calls that otherwise would've extended at-bats. It's a small part of the game, but one that absolutely provides value over the course of a season. For a catcher who has never consistently thrown out runners at a high rate or been viewed as an elite blocker, adding another tangible defensive strength is significant. It's another reason why his overall value may be greater than the traditional numbers suggest.

Then there's the organizational picture. Even though the Twins still have Victor Caratini under contract for another year, their catching pipeline isn't close to being major league-ready. Eduardo Tait has tremendous upside, but he's still only 19 years old and is currently playing at High-A. Enrique Jimenez is at that same level, while Khadim Diaw's long-term future behind the plate remains uncertain, especially given his frighteningly low caught-stealing rates. There are talented catchers in the system; they're just not close enough to make an impact at the major-league level anytime soon.

That could change this weekend, if the Twins use their third overall pick in the MLB Draft on Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey. He's been heavily connected to Minnesota throughout the pre-draft process and certainly fits the type of player they could target. But even if Lackey becomes the selection, that doesn't suddenly solve the major league catching situation.

College catchers still need time to develop. Whether it's Tait, Lackey, or someone else, the Twins are going to need somebody to bridge the gap between the present and the next generation. To me, Jeffers is the obvious choice, because what's the alternative? If you trade Jeffers now, you're probably turning around this offseason and spending money on another catcher, anyway. Why not keep the player who already knows the organization, has a strong track record of offensive production, and has built relationships with the pitching staff? That continuity matters, especially for a team that's likely going to lean on young starters and young position players over the next several seasons. 

Even if the Twins don't believe 2026 is shaping up to be a competitive year, I don't think Jeffers should be available at this trade deadline. He gives the Twins value immediately. He provides leadership inside the clubhouse, he’s helped stabilize a young pitching staff, and perhaps most importantly, he allows the organization to be patient with its next wave of catching prospects instead of forcing one of them to the majors before they're truly ready. There are certainly players the Twins should consider moving over the next few weeks, but Jeffers shouldn't be one of them. If I'm running this front office, he’s going nowhere this summer.

View full article

[Cory Engelhardt]

Depends on a few other things...

1) What is the return?

2) What other moves do they make at the deadline? Or this offseason?

3) Is there a 2027 season?

 

[MikeNC]

Sure we’d like to keep a near .300 hitter.  Just one teensy weensy problem:  Jeffers is a free agent after this season and AI says will command a new contract in the range of $11MM to $15MM per year.  The Twins are not gonna pay him 15% of their total payroll budget.  If he picks up where he left off, his trade best value will be now, not at season’s end.  Caratini and Jackson are doing great, they are enough if the team is otherwise (i.e. fixing the Bullpen) a contender.

[thelanges5]

Keep him, offer the QO, he bets on himself and leaves, Twins get a comp pick. 

[Mike Sixel]

Madness. He's a FA at the end of the year, and they aren't drawing fans ......trading him isn't going to hurt attendance.

As for the QO, I'd say he MIGHT take it, also, you only get a pick a year later....and he's not in the minors, so that guy is much further away than whomever you trade for. Trading for a guy in AA (or AA and one in low A) puts them on the same schedule as their top prospects.....

[Nshore]

It's all dependent upon what kind of deal they can get for Jeffers.  If it's the kind of deal Don Rickles came up with for the Nazi tank commander in "Kelly's Heroes", then by all means go for it!

[Dman]

I get it, we all like Jeffers, but a couple of counter points.  To not end up in situations like this the time to extend players is before they hit their arb years.  Once they do that most just wait for free agency.  Will the Twins win the bidding war for Jeffers in the offseason? Have we heard anything from anyone that they will even try?

The Twins might pony up a decent amount of dollars but what about years. Will they go 4 or 5 or 6 years on a thirty year old player at a position that lends itself to injuries?  It doesn't appear like they will extend or pay top dollar to keep him. It's been crickets. 

Has there been a time when the Twins have been quiet about a player and signed them to a big  contract in the offseason?  I can't think of one.  If they lose him to say the Yankee's you get absolutely nothing for keeping him.

The other part of this is what are you keeping him for if you can't resign him?  Is it to get into the playoffs?  While the Twins could be in the hunt at the deadline, in August they play a gauntlet of good and tough teams in the Brewers with the second best record in Baseball.  The Phillies and Braves who are just behind the Brewers in wins. They also get the Mariners and White Sox who are just as good as the Twins are. Once July is over Cleveland's schedule lightens dramatically which should help them to the division title.  So if you keep Jeffers and don't make the playoffs what was the point of keeping him versus getting some kind of value.

And finally the Twins have played well without him.  Since June 12th they have taken every series except getting swept by the Dodgers until today.  All without Jeffers.  Not saying he wouldn't help, just saying they have proven they can win without him.

I get it, we all would like the Twins to keep him, but the reality is those odds appear extremely low.  So get what you can while you can IMO.

 

[Linus]

I’m struggling to find words to express how much I disagree with this. I’m glad you are not running the Twins Sam. 

[DJL44]

If the Twins wanted to spend that much on a catcher they would already have a contract extension with Jeffers.

[LyleCole]

Buy low, sell high.     

I agree with the comments that the Twins need to evaluate the return on any trade offer on their core players:  Buxton, Ryan, Jeffers.  Lesser extend Larnach, Lewis.   

But, if they do not trade Ryan Jeffers they must be committed to paying the full market rate for the catcher once he reaches free agency.  If his market value of a free agent contract is 4 years, $56 million that is what they should commit to being in the market for.  If they have no intention of paying him anywhere close to the market rate, hoping for some home town discount or whatever, then he should be heavily markets at the trade deadline.

The only minimum issue then is if the offer is more valuable than waiting for any comp pick they might get.   But also remember that the QO is more than $23 million so there is a risk that the offer could put a complete hole in their budget.

And here is the deal, if they are not willing to pay Jeffers a market rate when he becomes a free agent then why pay Ryan, and to a lesser extend Buxton even though he is under contract.

If htey are too cheap to maintain a team, then rebuild again.  

[chpettit19]

2 things.

1. Why do you assume not trading him means you'll be able to keep him after the season?

2. Why does trading him mean you can't sign him after the season?

Wait, 3 things.

3. You didn't mention that not only do they have Caratini under contract for next year, but they also have control of Jackson next year. If we're going to believe in extreme outlier starts to the season (Jeffers is not a .900 OPS guy, I'm sorry) why not believe in Jackson's and then there's no need to keep Jeffers?

This wasn't at all a convincing argument for keeping Jeffers. You don't even mention trying to extend him now. I assume because you know the odds of that are miniscule unless you're throwing crazy money at him. But you argue they should just keep him after the season. You're going to have the same bidding war on your hands after the season whether you trade him or not. Players have a say in where they sign. Not trading him doesn't mean you just get to keep him. 

Trade Ryan Jeffers.

[Vanimal46]

56 minutes ago, Linus said:

I’m struggling to find words to express how much I disagree with this. I’m glad you are not running the Twins Sam. 

Sam is becoming the next Click Bait Cody here. Maybe they use the same AI writing software pumping out all of this garbage. 

[twinstalker]

SMH at the article.  Twins writers should have the basic understanding that Jeffers, because of Boras, will simply go where the money is.  That the Twins will not pay Ryan Jeffers $22 million for one season, nor should they.  That the Twins will not pay Jeffers more than other teams in a long term contract.

I mean, what are we doing here?  It's clickbait.

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, MikeNC said:

Sure we’d like to keep a near .300 hitter.  Just one teensy weensy problem:  Jeffers is a free agent after this season and AI says will command a new contract in the range of $11MM to $15MM per year.  The Twins are not gonna pay him 15% of their total payroll budget.  If he picks up where he left off, his trade best value will be now, not at season’s end.  Caratini and Jackson are doing great, they are enough if the team is otherwise (i.e. fixing the Bullpen) a contender.

I think this is article ignores the real reason to trade Jeffers - it looks like he isn't going to be on the team past 20026. Look, I would love to keep him if I thought he would be here next year. I would be willing to pay him 50-60m for 4 years to keep him. But everything you read says that he is determined to test free agency and that is is unlikely the Twins will want or be able to outbid teams like the Yankees to keep him. 

The real choice isn't whether it would be a good idea to keep Jeffers for the next few years. That's easy. It is a good idea. It's just not the real choice. The real choice is do you keep Jeffers for the rest of this season only and lose him for nothing, or do you trade him now and get some decent or better prospects in return? That's also easy. You trade him and get something for him now rather than losing him for nothing.

My vote is to sign him to a three or four year deal before the end of the month and keep him around with Caratini in a timeshare. Unfortunately, everything I read those tells me that is not actually an option. If your choice is to keep them just for 2026 or trade him for a couple of good to very good prospects the choice is easy; you have to trade him.

[Andy MacPhail]

 Jeffers had a record beginning of the season, If you look at Jeffers' record he normally starts out pretty well but always wanes in the 2nd half. IMO, he's not worth the big bucks that Boras will ask or even the 1 year $22M QO while forcing DFAing of cheap Jackson, Because Jeffers great beginning, he will draw some interest. I like Jeffers, but I say Twins will trade him.

[arby58]

2 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Keep him, offer the QO, he bets on himself and leaves, Twins get a comp pick. 

A comp pick is probably more of a lottery ticket than what they can get for him as a rental. They got Hendry Mendez and a pitching prospect for Harrison Bader. They got two AA pitchers for Willi Castro, one of whom is now at AAA. Jeffers will fetch more than either of them.

[Western SD Fan]

Let's do the exercise pretending there is an actual plan to re-sign Jeffers to a FA contract.  First, you should have tried to do this last offseason if you are actually serious about trying to sign him to an extension.  Below is the list of the current highest paid catchers with their current contracts.  If you don't see a contract, it means they are still under arbitration.  Jeffers isn't worth the top 3, and a new contract is likely in the range between the lines (Salvy and William Conteras).  The current QO is $22.025 million.  For the people who want the QO, you're asking the Twins to pay nearly $5 million OVER the highest paid catcher in MLB.  Doing a QO makes no sense for a catcher.    This seems absurd for a catcher all for the privilege to get a draft pick in either at the end of the 1st round or the end of the 2nd in which you will have to wait 2-5 years to see any results for.  Our drafting and developing hasn't had the best track record in the last decade or so.  Also, if you thought that we had no bullpen help now, take away another $5 million and see how our bullpen will be next year.

My theory would be to try to entice him with a 3/$42M or a 4/$50.  You are overpaying in AAV for fewer years as an honest contract would be near Murphy and Kirk.  I still think that if you were serious about bringing him back, you would have already tried to re-sign him. 

All of this to say that they should probably trade him for the best offer they can find provided they are not giving him away.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins should not give Ryan Jeffers away. We should be able to agree on that statement.

Strange article. Mentions a few players that seemingly should be traded: Larnach, Clemens, Bell, and then gets to Jeffers, the focus of the article. Why those three? There has been zero interest in Larnach for a year now. Is there now? Why Clemens? He plays decent defense and is under team control/ is inexpensive. Kody is a valuable player to the Twins, as a starter and also as a utility player. There is little chance he returns equal value. Why Bell? Teams have not been trading for Bell recently and he is not bringing back anything. 

Caratini and Jackson are under team control. Jeffers will be a free agent. He is the one player the Twins need to trade. If the Twins want to bid for his services this winter, fine. There isn't going to be a QO extended and Jeffers will not sign this close to free agency.

[SteveLV]

Incorrect.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Depends on a few other things...

1) What is the return?

2) What other moves do they make at the deadline? Or this offseason?

3) Is there a 2027 season?

 

Sorry if seems confrontational - I don’t understand? The question or thought here is does it make sense to trade or keep Jeffers - I think? Offseason & whether there’s a ‘27 season are questions that can’t be answered by August 3rd.

I’d love to keep Jeffers personally. I suggested here that the Team take Caratini’s $7M and throw in another $2-3M while committing Jeffers current salary to the total…….. somewhere between $13.5 - $15.5M. …… offer needs to be made and decided upon by July 25 or so.

Cannot let Jackson go via DFA. He’s shown real promise as a #2 Catcher.  No options.

Caratini’s value is at a peak & undeniable as of July 9……. if Jeffers extended they could get decent value for a guy playing well, switch hitter, and under control for another season.

I just don’t see Jeffers signing, right? …… so, he has to be traded. Team has played well for 60 games with the current tandem. My assumption is Jeffers gets activated and takes Fedko’s spot on Roster until a deal can be made for one of the Catchers? It sucks to see a guy coming into his own at the plate and then not being able to retain him.

Gotta get some impact value back for Jeffers - whether it’s this year, or next year, can’t move him for some guy in A ball or even AA, in my opinion. Some team with needs will fold to help win now and take a shot at extending him…..,.Zoll can make a deal that is at least “OK”. Too bad it got to this point - in fairness to FO, Jeffers isn’t a defensive star and his bat always had potential & in his walk year he’s showing the potential. Also, tough on the FO they can’t spend any $$.

[D.C Twins]

I could not more strongly disagree...

[IndianaTwin]

57 minutes ago, Western SD Fan said:

Let's do the exercise pretending there is an actual plan to re-sign Jeffers to a FA contract.  First, you should have tried to do this last offseason if you are actually serious about trying to sign him to an extension.  Below is the list of the current highest paid catchers with their current contracts.  If you don't see a contract, it means they are still under arbitration.  Jeffers isn't worth the top 3, and a new contract is likely in the range between the lines (Salvy and William Conteras).  The current QO is $22.025 million.  For the people who want the QO, you're asking the Twins to pay nearly $5 million OVER the highest paid catcher in MLB.  Doing a QO makes no sense for a catcher.    This seems absurd for a catcher all for the privilege to get a draft pick in either at the end of the 1st round or the end of the 2nd in which you will have to wait 2-5 years to see any results for.  Our drafting and developing hasn't had the best track record in the last decade or so.  Also, if you thought that we had no bullpen help now, take away another $5 million and see how our bullpen will be next year.

My theory would be to try to entice him with a 3/$42M or a 4/$50.  You are overpaying in AAV for fewer years as an honest contract would be near Murphy and Kirk.  I still think that if you were serious about bringing him back, you would have already tried to re-sign him. 

All of this to say that they should probably trade him for the best offer they can find provided they are not giving him away.

It’s hard to compare Jeffers to these because the Raleigh and Smith contracts each include the buying out of arbitration time. Realmuto and Perez are both past-their-prime contracts that likely come with some sort of hometown discount. 

In the case of Raleigh, for example, the AAV is only $17.5M, but the three years of free agency that have been bought out are at $24.67M. Those will be for his age 31, 32 and 33 seasons.

Similarly, Realmuto received $23.875M in his 31-34 seasons. 

With Jeffers entering his age 30 season, I think the figures you are coming up with are way too light. I think he would easily get 3/$60M in his age 30, 31, 32 seasons. This also makes me think that a) it is unlikely he would take the QO and b) very likely that he would get the more than $50M in total that gets the higher supplemental pick (unless that is affected by CBA changes).

If he would take the QO, I think it would be a very small overpay at most and it would only be for a single year.

[D.C Twins]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Madness. He's a FA at the end of the year, and they aren't drawing fans ......trading him isn't going to hurt attendance.

As for the QO, I'd say he MIGHT take it, also, you only get a pick a year later....and he's not in the minors, so that guy is much further away than whomever you trade for. Trading for a guy in AA (or AA and one in low A) puts them on the same schedule as their top prospects.....

yeah... no one... and I mean NO one is thinking...'hummm... I wonder if I should go to the game today... well let me check to see if the line up is posted and Jeffers is playing'

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I think this is article ignores the real reason to trade Jeffers - it looks like he isn't going to be on the team past 20026. Look, I would love to keep him if I thought he would be here next year. I would be willing to pay him 50-60m for 4 years to keep him. But everything you read says that he is determined to test free agency and that is is unlikely the Twins will want or be able to outbid teams like the Yankees to keep him. 

The real choice isn't whether it would be a good idea to keep Jeffers for the next few years. That's easy. It is a good idea. It's just not the real choice. The real choice is do you keep Jeffers for the rest of this season only and lose him for nothing, or do you trade him now and get some decent or better prospects in return? That's also easy. You trade him and get something for him now rather than losing him for nothing.

My vote is to sign him to a three or four year deal before the end of the month and keep him around with Caratini in a timeshare. Unfortunately, everything I read those tells me that is not actually an option. If your choice is to keep them just for 2026 or trade him for a couple of good to very good prospects the choice is easy; you have to trade him.

I agree with 90% ……..if he signs by July 25 or so, gotta trade Caratini to afford Jeffers going forward. Caratini also gets back in trade just as much or more than Jeffers with recent play & the added year of control.

[mnfireman]

The Rays and Yankees both need help at C, get them bidding against each other and take the best deal (I know prospects are a crap shoot)...

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, Andy MacPhail said:

 Jeffers had a record beginning of the season, If you look at Jeffers' record he normally starts out pretty well but always wanes in the 2nd half. IMO, he's not worth the big bucks that Boras will ask or even the 1 year $22M QO while forcing DFAing of cheap Jackson, Because Jeffers great beginning, he will draw some interest. I like Jeffers, but I say Twins will trade him.

Actually, for his career, his OPS has only declined from .742 to .721 from the first half to the second. Last year it actually improved from .742 to .769.

This year seems hard to predict since there will be a large gap between the first and second half. I think this year his second half performance will be less affected by fatigue and more affected by whether or not he is fully recovered from the hand injury. 

[Historyking88]

This entire article proves your clear lack of understanding how asset management works when it pertains to professional sports. A: your argument for keeping Jeffers is flawed in itself because there is no guarantee he will return to the pace he was on before getting injured and more importantly you really believe the Twins plan to extend him? Even if it was for a “discounted” price it wouldn’t be for less than 10-12M and there is no way they are paying that. 
B: Jeffers even being injured would get a nice return from someone like the Yankees who could offer up options to help bolster the Twins bullpen like Carlos LaGrange and Brent Headrick. They can be buyers and sellers at the deadline. They might be able to compete for a 3 game Wild Card Series but they are still years away from competing for a World Series. 

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

Keeping Jeffers would be great but if we're not able to extend him before the deadline, trading him may be there answer. Can't let him walk for nothing. 

I am 100% in agreement that if we can keep him, we should. 

[nova_twins]

Letting Jeffers walk is totally fine, it's completely made up and inaccurate that grabbing a mediocre prospect or two actually matters at all. 

[Blyleven2011]

Sorry sam  , we can get along fine without Ryan Jeffers  , caratini and Jackson have and will fill in for Jeffers absence  ...

Trade Jeffers for some value  , preferably a player or two that is MLB ready  ...

We can be sellers at this deadline with a few players and it won't hurt us going forward , we can also be buyers but I'm pretty sure that is not in their plans ...