Trading Ryan Jeffers Would Be the Wrong Move for the Twins

[TL]

Not against trading him for a very good prospect return, but:

1. Caratini and Jackson have done well in his absence, but they are not Ryan Jeffers.
2. Twins are in contention and to they could really use him if they want to make a playoff run (that is the goal, right?).
3. If the return isn’t great, then you end up with a fringe major leaguer like a Ryan Gallagher. I’d suggest keeping Jeffers for a playoff run could have bigger long-term benefits to the psyche of the team (and fans) than having another Ryan Gallagher in AA.
4. Making playoffs, or even a legit playoff run, could increase revenue and result in higher payroll next year (no laughing).
5. There are no bad 1 year contracts, even at 23MM; and if he declines then you get a decent prospect anyway through the comp pick.

[DJL44]

Think about it in reverse. If the Twins didn’t have Ryan Jeffers on the roster, would you suggest they give up two top pitching prospects (ex Rojas and Hill) to obtain him for the last 3 months of the season?

[dxpavelka]

Tom told us he was going to do things differently.  Here's his chance.  Keep Jeffers.  $11-15 million for a high end catcher is NOT unreasonable.  And, Caratini's value may never be higher. Trade him.  You don't get better when your best players are playing for other teams. 

[TNtwins85]

10 hours ago, twinstalker said:

SMH at the article.  Twins writers should have the basic understanding that Jeffers, because of Boras, will simply go where the money is.  That the Twins will not pay Ryan Jeffers $22 million for one season, nor should they.  That the Twins will not pay Jeffers more than other teams in a long term contract.

I mean, what are we doing here?  It's clickbait.

He hired Boras once it was known that he will be a free agent. I imagine once they signed Carratini to a 2 year deal the writing was on the wall. Also, the Twins not offering anything in the previous 6 years as far as an extension.  He’s as good as gone. Get a decent prospect or 2 for him. 

[Coach JT]

Stop over thinking this , we are fine with Jackson as a backup . Trade Jeffers for 2 to 3 pitching prospects and keep going . Larnach the same , we have plenty of young outfielders . Time to actually have a plan for once . 

[HarmonK03]

Yes we probably need to move on from Jeffers.  But our catching situation is not as settled for 27 as many want to believe.  Caratini and Jackson have looked good for the last month but can they sustain over a full season.  Caratini has never started over 87 games and that was 5 years ago.  Plus he will be 33 in another month.  Jackson will be 31 before next season and has never started more than 37 games, again 5 years ago.

Can Caratini hold up for 110 to 120 games, can Jackson step and still be productive for 60 to 70 games.  They will need to sign someone in the offseason to take some of the load off of Caratini because I am not sure he can be your primary catcher for a full season.

[TNtwins85]

9 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I agree with 90% ……..if he signs by July 25 or so, gotta trade Caratini to afford Jeffers going forward. Caratini also gets back in trade just as much or more than Jeffers with recent play & the added year of control.

Uhhh yeah, no. Caratini does not get the same as Jeffers. Although their stat lines may look the same for their years played Jeffers will get you back more. I thought about this but trading Caratini and keeping Jeffers really hamstrings you for next year. The answer is you have to trade him. It’s just the hard truth of the situation.

[TNtwins85]

48 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Tom told us he was going to do things differently.  Here's his chance.  Keep Jeffers.  $11-15 million for a high end catcher is NOT unreasonable.  And, Caratini's value may never be higher. Trade him.  You don't get better when your best players are playing for other teams. 

You also don’t get better by signing 29 year old catchers to 4-5 year deals for 11-15million a year when catchers tend to decline rapidly in their 30’s. Usually. Maybe Jeffers is different but you can count on him declining within that 4-5 years. Maybe he still hits well into his 30’s but he for sure doesn’t get better defensively. You could get better by trading him for a few guys who have team control for 6-7 years and end up making maybe 20 million if they’re decent in their 6 year span. That’s the risk though. There’s also the possibility that they all don’t turn out. I would love to keep Jeffers but that ship sailed at least a year ago. At this point you cash him in and try your best to develop whomever you get for him.

[rv78]

Jeffers is getting $6.7M. Caratini is getting $7M. Jackson is getting $1.3M. You've currently got $15M tied up in the catcher position. Explain to me how paying Jeffers $12-13M, trading Caratini and keeping Jackson as the primary backup is not economically possible. Other backup catchers will be available at a cheaper price than Caratini, and Tait isn't too far away. Where would the Twins be if Buxton didn't have a no trade clause and he wasn't playing for them this year because they traded him away for more prospects? At some point you have to quit trading away your best players. 

[Twins GFP]

I laughed when I read this title, it felt like click-bait.

Of course the Twins don't WANT to trade Jeffers. A top-third catcher, still relatively young, serving a position of need. But the reality is that Jeffers is a Boras client. The chances of him signing an extension are basically nil. As a FA, he will be priced out of the Twins market.

If he is healthy by the deadline, they will move him for the best package.

[SteveLV]

If the Yankees call I would be interested in Angel Chivilli coming back.  23 years old. cheap, electric arm, bolsters the bullpen.  They also have some other interesting prospects but people asking about Lagrange, he is injured and out at least 6 weeks.

Maybe get Henry Lalane for a long play as a big, power lefty?

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, TL said:

1. Caratini and Jackson have done well in his absence, but they are not Ryan Jeffers.

.246/.328/.414/.742
.263/.329/.406/.735

Those are the stat lines for the last 2 years for Caratini and Jeffers. Which one is Caratini and which one is Jeffers? Unless you think Jeffers is suddenly a .950 OPS player, Caratini very much is Ryan Jeffers.

[HrbieFan]

14 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Keep him, offer the QO, he bets on himself and leaves, Twins get a comp pick. 

QO is said to be $23m plus, if there is a season next year. Lock in the assets in a trade and ride with Caritini and Jackson 

[rdehring]

Agree with the majority of the above comments who contradict the premise of the article.  As I look at it there are two unknowns, 1) Who will he be traded to within the next three plus weeks? and 2) Who/what will the Twins get in return?

If done right, the Twins can strengthen their team for the end of this season with this trade.

[farmerguychris]

Wrong move based on what goal?  As fans - our goal is to win games.  As owners - thinking their goal is to make/save money.... We'll see which goal is the focus this trade deadline as the team has put themselves in position to justify spending some money.

[mnfireman]

2 hours ago, TNtwins85 said:

You also don’t get better by signing 29 year old catchers to 4-5 year deals for 11-15million a year when catchers tend to decline rapidly in their 30’s. Usually. Maybe Jeffers is different but you can count on him declining within that 4-5 years. Maybe he still hits well into his 30’s but he for sure doesn’t get better defensively. You could get better by trading him for a few guys who have team control for 6-7 years and end up making maybe 20 million if they’re decent in their 6 year span. That’s the risk though. There’s also the possibility that they all don’t turn out. I would love to keep Jeffers but that ship sailed at least a year ago. At this point you cash him in and try your best to develop whomever you get for him.

Looking at current (and some past) C contracts, the big money most of them got was in extensions, buying out 2 or 3 years of arbitration and 2 to 4 years of FA, effectively paying them well from roughly age 27 through 34, because, as stated, C generally don't age well also don't hit FA until about 30 years old, generally the start of the decline. Maybe Boras, or Jeffers himself, did not do him any favors not signing an extension before hitting FA.

I still think that with 3 or 4 teams looking for C help down the stretch the Twins can get a decent return for him.

[bjorks]

RJ is a catcher, you don't offer anything (nor would he probably want if he's truly "betting on himself") longer than 3 years. The goal is to hit FA one more time in his career after this at age 33. The Vasquez 3/$30 is the framework and maybe he gives a hometown discount of 3/$36 - $39. 

Not to be a downer, but this is the most significant labor issue ever and IMHO (hopefully I'm dead wrong) there's less than a 35% chance there's a full season in '27 and I'd say a 10% chance no season at all.. With that being said and organizations in financial limbo with all the things being discussed, it's foolish to keep RJ. If it was 100% there was going to be a full season I'd make the QO and see if he takes the hometown discount. But if the Yankees offered a LH, 4th OF type guy and a middling backend starter, maybe reliever risk, the Twins will be forced to take it.

[darin617]

17 hours ago, MikeNC said:

Sure we’d like to keep a near .300 hitter.  Just one teensy weensy problem:  Jeffers is a free agent after this season and AI says will command a new contract in the range of $11MM to $15MM per year.  The Twins are not gonna pay him 15% of their total payroll budget.  If he picks up where he left off, his trade best value will be now, not at season’s end.  Caratini and Jackson are doing great, they are enough if the team is otherwise (i.e. fixing the Bullpen) a contender.

The Twins won't be spending 11-15m for Jeffers in 2027 and 7m for Caratini.  I could see them making Jeffers an extension offer soon and if he turns it down they deal him now. If he accepts the extension I could see them dealing Caratini now.

[umterp23]

Jeffers now active, so they are carrying three catchers for next few weeks. Somebody will get traded, 99% sure it will be Jeffers

[Sam Caulder]

17 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Sam is becoming the next Click Bait Cody here. Maybe they use the same AI writing software pumping out all of this garbage. 

I'm thinking of switching from Claude to ChatGPT, not sure yet though. Any recommendations?

[Sam Caulder]

18 hours ago, Linus said:

I’m struggling to find words to express how much I disagree with this. I’m glad you are not running the Twins Sam. 

It would be so cool if I was, though

[Larry Janisewski]

19 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Keep him, offer the QO, he bets on himself and leaves, Twins get a comp pick. 

The only potential problem with that strategy is what happened to the Brewers last year. Often injured Washburn was offered the qualifying offer assuming he would explore the market for a multi-year deal. He accepted the offer (around $21 million which was more than double what he had been making) preventing the Brewers from using that money to help in other areas of need). Plus he has missed over 1/2 the season injured.

If Jeffers accepted this years qualifying offer it would probably be close to 25% of the Twins total salary.

I love Jeffers but if the return is good he needs to be traded.

[TL]

7 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

.246/.328/.414/.742
.263/.329/.406/.735

Those are the stat lines for the last 2 years for Caratini and Jeffers. Which one is Caratini and which one is Jeffers? Unless you think Jeffers is suddenly a .950 OPS player, Caratini very much is Ryan Jeffers.

That’s interesting. Caratini may actually be Jeffers. I won’t complain if they trade him - I just think it’s not worth it if the return is marginal while you’re trying to make the playoffs.