Twins Still Viewing Themselves as Trade Deadline Buyers Despite Long Odds

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

As Major League Baseball inches closer to the trade deadline, one of the most valuable exercises isn't identifying specific trade targets. It's figuring out which teams believe they are buying and which ones are preparing to sell. That information shapes virtually every conversation that follows.

In a recent piece for The Athletic, Jim Bowden checked in with all 30 organizations to gauge where each club stands and what their biggest needs are as the deadline approaches. For front offices around the league, this type of intelligence is critical. Before serious trade discussions begin, teams need a clear understanding of what other organizations are trying to accomplish.

Most trades don't materialize overnight. Executives spend weeks gathering information, comparing organizational strengths and weaknesses, and identifying potential matches. Knowing which clubs need starting pitching, bullpen help, offense, or prospect capital is often the first step toward finding a workable deal. Normally, the biggest storyline of the trade deadline revolves around sorting teams into two categories: buyers and sellers. This season, however, things are far less straightforward.

Outside of the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies, virtually every team can still point to some path toward postseason contention. Expanded playoffs have created a middle class of teams that remain within striking distance, making it much harder for organizations to wave the white flag in June or even July. That reality could create a fascinating deadline dynamic. Rather than the traditional contender-versus-rebuilder transactions, many of this year's deals may involve two teams that both believe they have a legitimate chance to play meaningful games in October. The Twins appear to fall squarely into that category.

According to Bowden, "The Twins are searching for bullpen help and believe if they can keep their star players like Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis healthy that they can stay in the race all season."

The bullpen need shouldn't surprise anyone. Minnesota's relief corps has been inconsistent throughout the season, and adding another high-leverage arm would help stabilize a group that has struggled to protect leads at key moments.

The more interesting part of Bowden's report is the confidence the organization apparently still has in its postseason chances. Looking strictly at the standings, that optimism requires a leap of faith. The Twins sit just 1.5 games behind the final American League Wild Card position, but several teams stand between them and a playoff berth. Every one of those clubs believes it can contend as well. 

According to FanGraphs, Minnesota currently owns a 27.9% chance of reaching the postseason. That's an improvement of more than 5 percentage points since the beginning of June, but it still means the Twins remain significant underdogs in the playoff race. In fact, it’s only the third-highest mark in the AL Central. Of course, front offices don't always view the situation through the same lens as projection systems.

There's also an important leadership factor at play. This is the first trade deadline featuring the Twins' new organizational structure. Tom Pohlad is overseeing the business side, while Jeremy Zoll is running baseball operations. Neither has navigated a deadline from their current position before, creating plenty of uncertainty regarding how aggressively Minnesota will act.

Zoll recently discussed Minnesota’s trade deadline position. He said that a lot of teams are currently having check-in conversations, but there isn’t enough separation in the playoff race to determine who the buyers and sellers are. It probably comes down to how the teams perform into the middle of July before meaningful trade conversations can occur. Still, the ultimate decision to buy or sell may come down to Pohlad.

Earlier this season, Pohlad made it clear that he expected the Twins to remain competitive. Those comments could prove meaningful as the deadline approaches. Ownership groups rarely enjoy watching a team sell off pieces, especially when they're hovering around the playoff picture. If Minnesota remains within striking distance over the next several weeks, there may be pressure to continue pursuing contention rather than pivoting toward the future. That doesn't necessarily mean the Twins will become major buyers. It simply means they may be reluctant sellers.

The next month will ultimately determine everything. If Minnesota gains ground in the standings, adding bullpen help could become a realistic objective. If the club falls further behind, difficult conversations about expiring contracts and tradeable veterans will become unavoidable. For now, though, Bowden's reporting offers a clear glimpse into the Twins' current mindset. Despite long odds, a crowded Wild Card race, and multiple teams standing in their way, Minnesota still appears to view itself as a contender. Whether reality eventually forces a different conclusion remains one of the most important questions facing the organization over the next six weeks.

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Do you view the Twins as buyers or sellers? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[tony&rodney]

Do I view the Twins as buyers or sellers? TBD, as is stated in the article. Check back on August 1.

[DJL44]

I don't think they're going to be able to assemble a playoff caliber bullpen with "cash considerations".

[terrydactyls]

What else could management have said except that they have confidence the team's ability to reach the playoffs?  They took a stance before the season started (possibly in an attempt to rationalize making no off season moves), that the Twins would be competitive and aim for the playoffs.  They have about a one in three chance to make the playoffs; but would anyone make a bet that they get past the first round?  Unless the Twins dramatically improve over the next 40 days, I certainly wouldn't.

[Saxophone Joe]

The bottom line: No one knows anything right now.

Raise your hand if you thought last Friday morning, coming off a pretty bad week and heading into a series against a good Cardinals team and 3 games on the road against a decent Rangers club, that a week later this 31-39 team would now be 36-40 and riding a four-game winning streak (the longest active win streak in MLB, for what that's worth). 

I mean, not even Peter would've predicted that...

[Twins GFP]

After being initially somewhat optimistic about having a new Pohlad at the realm, I am ready to call anything he says Bull***t.

I don't care about the weakened state of the American League or the AL Central. You have to take everything year-by-year. This team is currently 4.5 games out of 1st placed and 1.5 games out of the Wild Card. The Twins have blown the most leads of any team in baseball. They are currently in the race and have an obvious hole that can easily be filled.

Forget the trade deadline. For them to not go out RIGHT NOW and acquire two low-end, reliable RP (probably spending less than $10M total) to help this team get into the playoffs says everything you need to know about how this Pohlad truly feels about this team.

Talk is cheap. Lack of movement says everything. 

[ashbury]

5 minutes ago, Twins GFP said:

Forget the trade deadline. For them to not go out RIGHT NOW and acquire two low-end, reliable RP (probably spending less than $10M total) to help this team get into the playoffs says everything you need to know about how this Pohlad truly feels about this team.

Talk is cheap. Lack of movement says everything. 

You're buying in mid-June.  That's great.  Who's selling?  Especially reliable pitching, for cash?

[Dman]

I am pessimistic about their chances.  I think putting up this pen against good to really good teams is going to be their downfall.  They have a three game set coming up with the Dodgers and Yankee's where it will be tough to find wins and they face Cleveland a bunch in July as well. 

I don't like their odds of being all that close at the end of July, but yeah baseball is a strange sport in that teams can go on winning and losing streaks that defy the odds.  So who knows.

They are going to be getting some arms back so that could help things.  They have been hitting pretty well lately so that bodes well for winning games.  Still this team in general has been maddening in its ups and downs.  Certainly not as bad as Detroit or KC,, but this team still seems to be trying to find themselves.  

It is pretty early to say what shape they will be in by the end of July, but I still think the odds are against them making the playoffs. I certainly wouldn't waste assets adding guys, but they could stand pat and take their chances if they are close to a wild card spot.

[Wedman13]

26 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

What else could management have said except that they have confidence the team's ability to reach the playoffs?  They took a stance before the season started (possibly in an attempt to rationalize making no off season moves), that the Twins would be competitive and aim for the playoffs.  They have about a one in three chance to make the playoffs; but would anyone make a bet that they get past the first round?  Unless the Twins dramatically improve over the next 40 days, I certainly wouldn't.

I think that's exactly what it comes down to, and making that judgement is as or more important than any specific deal- and every fan will have a different answer.  It sounds like your 'buyer or seller' decision is 'guaranteed first round win' or sell.  Mine would be 'have a shot and play meaningful late season games' or sell.  Others would be 'world series' or sell.  No one is right or wrong but it's critical in the short/long term decision making.  Wonder where Tom P is at.

also, this is why a guy like Joe Ryan is so damn valuable.  Yes it takes a good 5-7 starters to 'get to the playoffs'.  But it takes 2-2.5 really good starters to win once there.  The 85 twins are a classic example.

 

[thelanges5]

This is the second time that Bowden has been quoted on TD this week. If everyone would stop clicking on his articles, maybe he would go away.

[nicksaviking]

Caller: “Hey Jeremy, are you guys buying or selling this summer”

Jeremy: “Well we’re obviously… Wait, who is this?”

Caller: “This is Jim Bowden, you know, the guy who’s constantly suggesting you trade your best players to the East Coast teams I pretty exclusively cover.”

Jeremy: “Buying. We’re 100% buying. Print it.”

[nicksaviking]

But regardless of who was doing the polling, Tom Pohlad said this team was competing this year despite no investment from ownership. That was only done to try to put fans in the seats. They’re not going to back off that charade in June by publicly waiving the white flag.

[Linus]

I have two thoughts: if Tom Pohlad is making the decision to buy or sell I think we are screwed. 
Second, the idea that we are “still in it” implies that all the other teams that have scuffled unexpectedly will continue to struggle and allow the Twins a fighting chance. Gleeman pointed out that in the last 20 years a team with a losing record made the playoffs one time. In other words, several of the teams who have struggled will likely take off and leave the Twins behind. This is where the FO needs to have the courage to finish the rebuild and give us a brand new window of several years to win. 

[Wedman13]

20 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

But regardless of who was doing the polling, Tom Pohlad said this team was competing this year despite no investment from ownership. That was only done to try to put fans in the seats. They’re not going to back off that charade in June by publicly waiving the white flag.

But the problem with your argument is...... they are.  Bad division, league, whatever... 30% chance is competing.  The question is, what to do now:

[Rosterman]

I'm sure the Twins could trade Joe Ryan for a decent reliever.

Right now, looking at any value beyond mid-level prospects blocked by depth in other organizations for ANY Twins player, be it Larnach, Bell, Banda, Rogers, Wallner. The Twins have an abundance of outfielders and I feel that they could basically wipe their current slate clean of Martin Larnach Wallner and replace with Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Roden, Jenkins and not lose current production. They could part ways with Kriedler and maybe even Clemens and replace with Ross and Fedko. I start to wonder what kind of relief arm the Twins could've really signed, considering all the "cash considerations combined" into one salary.

[bjorks]

What do you expect Tom or whichever Pohlad is running the team? 

"We're not going to be very competitive this so we're going to go full rebuild and gather assets," or maybe

"Despite bing 1.5 games back in the WC and in a bad division, we just can't compete so we're going to sell off this year again."

If that's the expectation, the Twins wouldn't draw a million fans this year and the grief they get would go triple. We want them to say the things the fans want to hear, but there's strategy to this as they still need to sell tickets to increase team revenues. 

With that being said #SELLTHETEAM!

I looked it up and a full page ad in the Startribune isn't awful. If they sell at the deadline I may ask for donations to take out ads in the Trib/PP on behalf of fans calling for them to sell 

[DannySD]

I wonder if all contenders have four relievers I don't trust with a seven run lead

[CRF]

I just don't see them being buyers. Sure, they may make a few more dumpster dives, or make a minor trade or two, but they just aren't going to jump in with both feet for pitching help. It's gonna be all smoke and no fire. 

[tony&rodney]

Names. Be specific about what players could possibly be acquired and what you think are the costs.

Falvey stood still. Did anyone think Tom Pohlad was actually going to get free agents signed? Who? Framber Valdez? It sounds good to suggest investment but the front office needs to identify players available in any transactions, whether that is a free agent or a trade. I don't think many free agents were looking to sign with Minnesota last winter. Of course throwing an absurd amount of money at any reliever may have convinced a signing or two but that is also fraught with peril. The selloff last July was responsible for the reduced strength of the bullpen. A few lucky draws may have begun a partial restoration. Maybe Gomez, Rojas, Morris, Banda, Paredes, Laweryson, and a couple of others improve the numbers going forward for the bullpen. The starting pitching could stabilize as well if Abel returns strong and Bradley and Matthews can go 5-7 innings. Ober? Maybe. A guy like Clemens may be a pumpkin but he is free, so ride him forward. Help may arrive in late July from a few prospects as well.

The general trend here is that the Twins are not really going to benefit to any great extent from trades and they are just as likely to be decent as they are to fail. For better or worse, the Twins are going to need to play the hot hands and hope there is rapid development down below. I see very little change in the forecast for the organization, just shifting of the players. The one exception would be Ryan Jeffers and I don't have a name that he brings back, so I will keep him until I can find one.

[D.C Twins]

Buying would be a disaster for future.

This team is NOT playoff competitive, even with a few more bullpen pieces. 

Ryan and Jeffers are not signing an extension nor are the Twins winning any bidding wars in FA.

It is malpractice not to trade them and get value in return.