Week in Review: Cracks in the Armor

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

The Weekly Nutshell:
Coming off a 6-1 week, the Minnesota Twins kicked this one off with their most impressive showing of the season, clobbering Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet for 11 runs in a blowout win to keep the good times rolling. They followed on Tuesday by knocking around old friend Sonny Gray, notching their eighth win in nine games. 

That's where the charmed run finally came to a halt. The Twins dropped the finale against Boston and then got swept by Cincinnati with poor defense, unreliable relief pitching, and a lack of timely hitting all playing a role in the rapid cooldown. With four straight losses, Minnesota has dropped back to the .500 mark as they prepare to embark on a challenging East Coast road trip.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/13 through Sun, 4/19
***
Record Last Week: 2-4 (Overall: 11-11)
Run Differential Last Week: +4 (Overall: +12)
Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (1.5 GB) 

Latest Game Results

Game 17 | MIN 13, BOS 6: Red-Hot Twins Obliterate Crochet, Launch 4 Homers

• Jeffers: 3-4, HR, 3 RBI

Game 18 | MIN 6, BOS 0: Abel Spins a Gem and Buxton Goes Deep Twice

• Buxton: 4-5, 2 HR

Game 19 | BOS 9, MIN 5: Woods Richardson Hit Hard as Sox Cool Off Twins

• Woods Richardson: 5 IP, 10 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 3 K

Game 20 | CIN 2, MIN 1: Slumping Keaschall Strands Seven in One-Run Loss

• Keaschall: 0-4, GIDP, 7 LOB

Game 21 | CIN 5, MIN 4: Late Leads Slips Away as Bullpen and Defense Lapse

• Bradley: 6 IP, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K

Game 22 | CIN 7, MIN 4: Bullpen, Defense Melt Down Again as Red Complete Sweep

• Morris, Acton: 3 IP, 6 R, 3 ER

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NEWS & NOTES

When Royce Lewis went on the injured list with a low-grade knee sprain last weekend, the hope was that his absence would be a short one. Sure enough, he initiated a rehab stint with the Saints on Saturday, just seven days after landing on the IL. Lewis homered in his first at-bat with St. Paul and then homered again on Sunday, looking plenty healthy while starting at DH and then third base. He is eligible to return as soon as as Tuesday.

 

The big question in my mind: when Lewis is activated, who exits the 26-man roster to make room? The straightforward answer is Ryan Kreidler, who was called up as Lewis' replacement, but I'd prefer to see Kreidler stay with James Outman shipped out. 

HIGHLIGHTS

After shaking off a slow start, which was undoubtedly impacted by his WBC-related lack of regular spring playing time, Byron Buxton is finally locked in at the plate. It's a joy to behold. Buxton homered on Monday and then launched two more on Tuesday as part of an 8-for-21 week that raised his OPS by 171 points. 

 

Buxton also flew around the outfield and made some nice defensive plays. By the weekend, though, something did appear somewhat amiss for him. He started at DH on Saturday and twice in the game he was seemingly unable to run out grounders on close plays at full speed. Is he okay? Worth keeping an eye on. For what it's worth he was back in center field on Sunday and did appear to be moving fine.

Aiding Buxton at the top of the order was Austin Martin, who continues to provide exactly what the Twins need from him as a table-setter. Martin notched five hits, including two doubles — one of which tied the game in the ninth on Sunday — and his first home run of the season. He also drew four more walks, keeping his on-base percentage up near the .500 mark, and crossed the plate five times. Martin leads the team in fWAR through 22 games.

Kreidler's arrival as a (short-term?) roster addition has provided a defensive boost, as expected, but also a surprising boost to the offense. The 28-year-old utilityman homered just twice in 89 games for the Tigers over the past four years before homering twice in his first week with the Twins. His 438-foot nuke to the upper-deck against Crochet on Monday proved to be the final straw for the left-hander. Kreidler also doubled and drew four walks on the week. 

 

If you didn't know anything about Kreidler and his history, you might start to think, hey, maybe we've got something here. Sadly, we're witnessing a bit of an anomaly. Kreidler has been one of the worst hitters in the majors during his limited opportunities and it's unlikely he's suddenly figured it all out at the plate as opposed to running into a few mistake pitches with good swings. But Kreidler's defensive value is such that he really doesn't need to hit much at all to be a valuable roster piece. A week like this here and there would be more than enough.

The rotation excelled once again, and has been a strength that few others can match. Entering play on Sunday, the Twins ranked third in the majors in fWAR from starting pitchers (behind Detroit and Seattle). Taj Bradley and Joe Ryan ranked fifth and seventh among individual starters, respectively, and both shined again in their latest outings. 

Ryan held the Reds to two runs (one earned) in six innings on Friday, striking out six and walking none with three hits allowed. He's allowed two or fewer earned runs in four of his five starts this year. On Saturday, Bradley also went six innings in a quality start, allowing two earned runs and handing a lead to the bullpen that disappeared in the late innings. Bradley's ERA sits at 1.63 and his FIP at 1.97. He has yet to allow a home run through five starts.

Commendably, Bailey Ober is finding a way to get it done with sub-90 fastball velocity. He was nothing short of dominant on Sunday against the Reds, leaning heavily on the changeup and breaking ball to strike out 10 over 6 ⅓ innings with just one unearned run allowed. He's keeping hitters off balance and keeping the ball in the yard. Can he keep it going? Who knows, but we'll certainly take it for now.

While Ryan, Bradley and Ober were good, Mick Abel stole the show with his brilliant performance on Tuesday night, striking out 10 with no walks over seven shutout innings in a win over the Red Sox. It was Abel's second start in a row holding the opposing lineup scoreless, and he's lowered his ERA from 11.05 to 3.98 in the process. Beyond encouraging.

 

LOWLIGHTS

For a second consecutive week, the ugliest pitching moments came with Simeon Woods Richardson and Anthony Banda on the mound. It was an otherwise mostly successful home stand for the staff, but these two in particular are struggling here in April. 

In Wednesday's series finale against Boston they combined to allow nine runs (eight earned) on 12 hits in six innings, negating any chance for a sweep over the Red Sox. Five days earlier, that same duo coughed up eight earned runs over 5 ⅓ in Toronto. The Twins are 0-4 in Woods Richardon's starts this year and Banda has quickly found himself on the lower end of the bullpen hierarchy with an ERA now sitting at 10.38. It's especially unfortunate because the Twins are lacking for relievers they can trust in key spots.

 

The bullpen in general is getting a reality check. On Saturday three relievers combined to progressively blow a two-run lead in the late innings. On Sunday it happened much more rapidly, with Andrew Morris surrendering three runs in the ninth before three more scored (unearned) against Garrett Acton in the 10th. A sure win turned into a crushing loss with a rookie (pitching a second inning in his second career appearance) and recent waiver claim on the mound. 

Neither of these guys should be pitching in such a situation. Obviously. Then again, it's hard to have a whole lot more faith in the mediocre likes of Justin Topa, Eric Orze and Cole Sands, who each gave up a run on Saturday as the 4-2 lead built up behind Bradley turned into a 5-4 defeat. We wondered last week how long the patchwork bullpen could hold up and it turns out, not long at all.

In fairness, the pitchers were not helped at all by the defense, which has been atrocious. The past week we saw two different plays where multiple errors were committed, and in both cases the spiraling misplays were highly damaging. 

Luke Keaschall — who is also struggling mightily at the plate — bobbled and threw away a double-play ball with the bases loaded on Wednesday, letting in two and setting up a three-run blast. On Sunday, things unraveled in the 10th on a grounder that Tristan Gray failed to stab and then Martin failed to cleanly pick up in the outfield. 

 

Sloppy, sloppy baseball. No different from what most of us expected, but painful to watch nonetheless, especially when these botched plays are proving more costly than anticipated with the offense and rotation both contributing strongly. Winnable games keep slipping away and early-season momentum is being dashed. I wish I could say I was confident that help was on the way. 

TRENDING STORYLINE

Is there anything the Twins can do about their bullpen and defense? Right now the team is so bad in both areas that it's pretty much impossible to envision them as a consistent winner. Watching quality starts get wasted in every game against the Reds was brutal, and the type of thing that's going to quickly sour fans who were attempting buy into this team's surprising April energy. 

Derek Shelton needs better options in the bullpen. Asking Morris to throw the eighth and ninth with a two-run lead in his second MLB appearance, when he's barely been tested as a reliever, was ridiculous. Claiming Acton off waivers and throwing him into extreme high-leverage situations right off the bat, ridiculous.

Unfortunately, they are no easy fixes. The collection of relief arms at Triple-A is uninspiring. Minor-league signing John Brebbia was pitching pretty well before giving up three home runs on Sunday. John Klein has a 7.36 ERA for the Saints and Marco Raya 9.64 as two of the only readily available 40-man roster options. Dan Altavilla, who almost made the Opening Day roster, has a 9.31 ERA and 12-to-11 K/BB ratio. I guess you could think about giving a shot to 35-year-old Matt Bowman, owner of a 1.54 ERA through seven appearances, but that's not a needle-mover. 

There's just little hope on the horizon for this relief corps, unless they try something drastic like converting Connor Prielipp or Zebby Matthews at the expense of their starting depth.

UPDATE: Well how about that. They're calling up Kendry Rojas, fresh off the injured list, with Prielipp reportedly joining on the taxi squad for the road trip. More to come. 

 

The dreadful Twins defense feels just as hopeless. They have sub-par fielders in most of the starting positions, including a couple who rank among the league's worst. Matt Wallner has been the least valuable defender in baseball, per Defensive Runs Saved, and Brooks Lee has no business playing shortstop regularly in the big leagues with 6th percentile range and 19th percentile arm strength. Speaking of dismal arm strength, Keaschall is skipping routine throws to first from 70 feet away at second. 

 

Keeping Kreidler on the roster would be helpful, but only so much. No one else the Twins can call upon or swap in soon is going to be any kind of savior with the glove. This a fundamentally bad defensive team and we're probably going to have to live with it. We'll see how they intend to address this crippling weakness over time. There is going to be a lot of pressure on prospects like Emmanuel Rodriguez and Kaelen Culpepper to come up and be impact defenders in a hurry.

LOOKING AHEAD

The suddenly slumping Twins are off to New York to face a Mets team with the second-highest payroll and worst record in baseball. Can Minnesota get the vibes back on track by capitalizing on the rotten ones in Queens, or will this prove to be the matchup that gets the Mets right? 

From there it's off to Tampa for three games against the Rays, starting with a showdown between Bradley and the team that is probably second-guessing their decision to trade him at the moment. 

TUESDAY, APRIL 21: TWINS @ METS — RHP Mick Abel v. RHP Nolan McLean
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 22: TWINS @ METS — RHP Simeon Woods Richardson v. RHP Clay Holmes
THURSDAY, APRIL 23: TWINS @ METS — RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Kodai Senga
FRIDAY, APRIL 24: TWINS @ RAYS — RHP Taj Bradley v. RHP Drew Rasmussen
SATURDAY, APRIL 25: TWINS @ RAYS — RHP Bailey Ober v. LHP Shane McClanahan
SUNDAY, APRIL 26: TWINS @ RAYS — RHP Mick Abel v. TBD

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[Fatbat]

We knew there were going to be some ugly baseball moments. It’s going to take time to get thru the speed bumps. The bullpen needs help,  SWR needs to catch a break or two. 

[Blyleven2011]

Good analysis nick ...

Sloppy Sloppy baseball  , the heart aches when we lose the lead and then lose the game  ...

Lots of Sloppy defense  , official scorer neglected to call some of them errors during the series  ...

I'd be happy if they could win one  then lose one and win one and so on , losing 4 in arow puts us right back as a non-competive team , last years players haven't improved much , the new acquisitions  , bell , caratini  , gray are doing okay ,  Bell leads in average and rbi's  , buxton has a few good games offensively and a few bad games , need more consistency from him  , Buxton's defense has been good  ...

Let's hope for a better week on the road against Mets and Rays  ...

[strumdatjag]

Meanwhile, James Outman had a pretty good day today, going 2 for 4 (after 0 for 19 start). I don’t think it’s enough to avoid a deserved demotion.   

[stringer bell]

As usual, fair and accurate analysis of the Twins. Thanks @Nick Nelson. Off the charts hitting with runners in scoring position and excellent starting pitching covered the Twins' biggest flaws, but Cincinnati exposed their problems and the hitters regressed to the mean.

Twenty-two games is a small sample size, but at some point the faces need to change. There are alternatives for the bullpen, but they appear no more appetizing than the current residents. As for position players, just about everyone has been below average on defense and one of the few who rates well (Martin) made a crucial error today. As far as promotions from St. Paul, whoever gets a shot with the Twins needs to be a better defender than the guy they are replacing. 

As much as I hate to admit it, the biggest problem is shortstop. Lee will never have plus range, so he needs to turn almost every ball he can reach into an out and he really hasn't done that. HIs offense has come around a bit, but he's really hurting the team. Wallner has been the regular right fielder and he has also hurt the club with his defense much more than he's helped the offense. Bell and Larnach should usually DH and they are on the field far too often. I don't envy Shelton.  

[h2oface]

Buxton was unlocked in pretty quickly again. Lee is terrible, and who thought he could accomplish a delayed steal of home and called that play? I guess Banda is the guy the Dodgers knew to let walk. The guy with all the late game experience was passed on twice Sunday (not that his horrendous performance has made him a go to).

Too bad for 3 great starts by Ryan, Bradley , and Ober were wasted by the blowpen. 

[thelanges5]

Thanks for the excellent recap. They probably aren’t as bad as they were this week or as good as they were the previous week.
 

I am thankful that my weekend was pretty busy and I didn’t have time to watch any of these games.

[palmspringstwinsfan]

“They are who we thought they are”

[TheLeviathan]

Yeah, people forget that a bad team last year won a ton of games early too.  It didn't make them not bad.

This defense will keep this team from being anything approaching "good" by any sane definition.

[David HK]

Welp, same script, different day. 

Let's see, the starter guts it out and gives the team everything it needs to win.

But then...  The defense gacks it up, the alleged "bullpen" has a daily implosion, the bats go cold, and here we are again, the same Twinkie Two-Step toward ignominious defeat.  Ho-hum, this week is the whole season in a nutshell.

[D.C Twins]

A preexisting crack in the armor... the bullpen was always going to be a problem. 

Optimism springs though in the performance of Taj, Abel, and Keaschall (he'll be fine) with visions of Ross and Culpepper providing competent defense on the left side of the infield while Emma and Jenkins patrol the outfield.....

 

[D.C Twins]

1 hour ago, palmspringstwinsfan said:

“They are who we thought they are”

[tony&rodney]

The next 13 games may determine how much time the team gives the current group before reaching down to AAA for Rodriguez and Culpepper. The defense is getting exposed consistently. The physical limitations are real but I'm  a little disappointed in the mental mistakes. The Twins can, at the very least, clean up the little stuff.

[USAFChief]

I hope to never again read how easy it is to assemble a good bullpen. 

 

[ashbury]

39 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I hope to never again read how easy it is to assemble a good bullpen. 

https://www.sportsfield.com/products/baseball-softball-equipment/pitching-mounds/seasonal-bullpen-pitching-mounds/ 

Among the features: "Interlocking sections for quick and easy assembly"

Looks sturdy.  Took only a bit of internet searching.

[Greglw3]

4 hours ago, h2oface said:

Buxton was unlocked in pretty quickly again. Lee is terrible, and who thought he could accomplish a delayed steal of home and called that play? I guess Banda is the guy the Dodgers knew to let walk. The guy with all the late game experience was passed on twice Sunday (not that his horrendous performance has made him a go to).

Too bad for 3 great starts by Ryan, Bradley , and Ober were wasted by the blowpen. 

Kendry Rojas, 0.00 ERA and upper 90s fastball and good breaking stuff and Prielipp both have been called up. Now call up E-Rod or Roden for an optioned Wallner  and I would call up Kaelen Culpepper, who plays an excellent SS and can hit and option Lee. They need a RHB to platoon in RF for Wallner, Roden or Rodriguez - permanently if Wallner and until Roden or Rodriguez can be eased into exposure to some lefties. Canha was released but I don’t know if he has enough left to be a platoon vs L, maybe Fedko or G. Gonzalez or scout around baseball and get a platoon bat for Rf. It’s working well in LF.

They could still sign Giolito.