What's the Best-Case Scenario for the 2026 Twins Bullpen?

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

Last year around this time, Twins fans were buzzing about the team's bullpen outlook. With Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax leading a deep unit, Minnesota was projected to have the highest fWAR in baseball from relief pitchers – one of the big reasons for optimism surrounding the 2025 club.

In some respects, the bullpen was living up to this billing through midseason. At the point that they traded everyone away last July, the Twins did indeed rank first in the American League in fWAR at the position. And yet, the team was well below .500 and fading from relevance, largely because – for all the strong underlying stats and indicators – Twins relievers weren't making the desired impact. 

They ranked fourth in FIP but 23rd in ERA and 25th in WPA. The talent and ability across the relief corps were plain to see, but these pitchers were lapsing too often when it mattered most. It proved costly.

So it goes with bullpens. We're talking about small samples and situational outcomes. Sometimes a good group of relievers amounts to sub-par effectiveness overall. The Twins are hoping for the opposite this year: a bullpen that is greater than the sum of its parts. 

Some of the outside factors have changed. There's a new bullpen coach leading the crew in LaTroy Hawkins, and a new manager determining usage in Derek Shelton. Other factors will likely remain constant: these relievers will be protecting slim leads (if that) and the defense behind them is not going to be very good. 

Despite parting with their three best relievers, and not replacing them with anyone on remotely the same tier, the Twins still have some intriguing arms in the mix and a track record for successful reliever development under Pete Maki. They have significantly less proven quality to work with than in the past, and the pressure will be high under Tom Pohlad's "be competitive" edict. 

For the Twins bullpen to hold its own, they need most, if not all, of the following things to happen. 

At least one more impact arm joins the fold
There's no one left in free agency that's going to provide a slam-dunk upgrade at this point, but there are at least a few wild-cards offering the upside to be a real difference-maker if things break right. Michael Kopech is the standout name, but Shelby Miller and José Leclerc are other examples of veteran free agents who've been dominant at times. Trades are also still an option.

The hope here would be to catch lightning in a bottle, if even for a temporary spell, until others break through later in the season. I'm reminded of how Brandon Kintzler sprung up as an out-of-nowhere All-Star closer in 2017, helping that team shock the baseball world coming off a 103-loss campaign.

Cole Sands recaptures his 2024 form
It's clear that the Twins are really counting on this. The only remaining holdover from the previous late-inning relief mix was one of its top performers in 2024, posting a 3.28 ERA and 85-to-12 K/BB ratio in 71 innings. He took a step backward last year, but the peripherals weren't as bad as the ERA and the stuff still looked pretty good for the most part.

Sands in 2024 showed the profile of a credible relief ace. Last year he was barely good enough to trust in the sixth inning. In order to have a shot at competence this year, Minnesota's bullpen needs him to gravitate back toward his previous breakthrough form.

Taylor Rogers and Justin Topa are extremely reliable
These aren't ceiling-raisers but they can bring a needed level of sturdiness and steadiness to the table. Both in their mid-30s, Rogers and Topa aren't going to blow anyone away. You don't want them facing the opposing lineup's biggest threats in the highest leverage. But they've been around the block, they're crafty and they've both been perfectly solid in terms of recent results. Since 2023, Rogers has a 3.16 ERA in 162 innings and Topa's at 3.15 in 131 innings.

Continue to operate at that level and these seasoned hurlers will play key roles in stabilizing the pen with experience.

Surprising depth emerges
What really worries me about the Twins bullpen is the depth. You take the three guys mentioned above, plus Eric Orze, plus hopefully one more decent addition, and you've got the potential makings of an okay unit. But as we know, people are going to get hurt. Probably in spring training. And then you start digging into the thin layers of depth left behind from the deadline purge.

It's not just downgrading from, say, Jax to Topa in the eighth inning that hurts you. It's the corresponding downgrades for the fourth and fifth right-handers in the bullpen, where Topa used to slot. And it's the guys who are stepping into those spots if anyone above them goes on the injured list. As things stand we are dangerously close to seeing a large amount of innings go to the likes of Travis Adams, Marco Raya, etc. 

They Twins are going to need some unexpected and largely unknowns to step up and hold their own. This is where their self-belief will really be put to the test. Keep a close eye on the non-roster invites this spring to see who might establish themselves atop the reinforcement ranks.

Prospects and converted starters quickly break through
Ultimately, this will make or break the 2026 Twins bullpen. There's no two ways around it. It's clear that the team's plan is to transition some of their many starting prospects into relief roles, mirroring the approach that yielded Jax, Sands, Louie Varland and others. But who specifically will they push down this path, and how quickly will it pay dividends, if at all?

The Twins have enough MLB-ready pitching outside of their Big 3 vets to instill some level of confidence, but they've got work to do in determining how it will all shake out. It's great to say, in theory, that a few arms out of a group that includes Simeon Woods Richardson, Taj Bradley, Zebby Matthews, David Festa and Mick Abel will develop into effective bullpen arms, but putting that plan into practice is another story. You've got to get the players on board, you've got to accept the trade-offs in terms of SP depth, and you've got to make the switch actually click.

It's not difficult for me to envision, say, Matthews and Festa offsetting a considerable amount of the dominance lost in relievers like Jax and Duran. Will it actually happen, and how long will it take? This question, more than any other, will dictate the upside of the Twins' relief corps in 2026.

What am I missing? What else needs to play out this year for the Twins to find surprising bullpen success? Or is it a moot point given the personnel and timelines at hand? I'd love to hear from you in the comments.

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[mikelink45]

Hard to read and have confidence.  Nice try.  Rogers and Topa - our two elder statesmen, our experienced arms and you write 

Quote

You don't want them facing the opposing lineup's biggest threats in the highest leverage. 

Okay who do you want?  Who do we have or do we just refuse to pitch in high leverage situations?

Orze had a good era 3.02 but that whip 1.368 is not what you want in the 8th or 9th.  And Sands was not even able to match his career 4.19 era last year.

And those are our top 4. 

[CRF]

I just hope we don't pour gasoline on the fire every time we go to the pen. 

[Jeff K]

Our best hope is a couple of converted starters turn into bullpen beasts.

[Coach Wheels]

10 minutes ago, Jeff K said:

Our best hope is a couple of converted starters turn into bullpen beasts.

There are 2 many starters currently and, I agree, one or two could be very impactful in the bullpen in 2026

[JD-TWINS]

The TOP 2 guys still need to be identified from my perspective. Sands - Funderburk - Topa - Rogers - Orze are all very reasonable guys found in bullpens across the game for 5th - 6th - 7th & occasionally spilling into the 8th innings, depending on workload of the back end guys………..potentially, none of them makes it through the year w/o some minor injury. 

Klein - Adams - Raya  - Lewis can be added to this mix of 5 guys as depth…….maybe one can be the “6th guy” in the mix?

Matthews - Prielipp - Festa  - Morris need to fill the back end void. I’m not a talent expert, but it sure seems that nobody left on the FA market has better talent than these guys - just experience, with just as much risk of mediocre results.

Trading for a guy that would actually be an “upgrade” just doesn’t seem likely as all other 31 Teams need reliable arms as well.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Matt Caterino? He is an intriguing pitcher, who, before multiple injuries, was a rising prospect. Would someone from TD please do a story on him immediately. 

[mike8791]

Hate to use such a hackneyed expression, but "lipstick on a pig" aptly describes this picture.  There is no one on this list who can legitimately fill tight situations in the 7th or 8th, no less as a closer.  To hope for more is a fool's game.  I can understand the need for an attempt to inject optimism at this late stage in the offseason, but this FO has given us little reason to be believers.  Seems there is little difference between Fail-V and Zoll, not to even mention the absurdities emanating from TP's mouth.

[JD-TWINS]

16 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Matt Caterino? He is an intriguing pitcher, who, before multiple injuries, was a rising prospect. Would someone from TD please do a story on him immediately. 

No offense but how about he pitches 15-20 innings before he gets ANY attention. Discussing his physical therapy and his throwing results “on the side” are very empty to me. I’ve seen Matt in the mix here literally for years and he never actually pitches before getting hurt again. Sorry, I just don’t need to hear more “lofty potential results” from a guy that cannot stay healthy more than a month at a time. He makes Brock Stewart seem durable. 

[bunsen82]

What do you need from a bullpen -  you need them to provide innings,  and then you need 1 to really good arms that can get you out of jams and possibly a closer.   We have 5 bullpen arms,  all of them with questions.  I could see 2 fall apart and I don't think anyone would question that.  We need more arms including the younger ones.  In my opinion as said above - if we are going with a bullpen of suspects we might as well increase our odds.  Its why I see Banda as a valuable arm - but by all accounts many organizations feel the same way,  initial reports are several teams are working with the Dodgers on a trade.   

There is 1 mention above, and its a true flyer,  but its a flyer with upside.  Canterino.  I was beyond surprised to see him added to spring training.  He had surgery late last march with an anticipated recovery time of 12 months and potentially 14 for him because he throws hard and has had a such an injury risk.   If he is a healthy - major if but on the level of a beef stew,  he could legitimately become a closer or set up man if the shoulder and elbow can hold up.   

The early converted arms and bullpen arms are Klein, Raya, and Adams.  Maybe Raya can figure it out, I just don't have much hope for him.   Festa and Matthews seem like your best arms that could really become elite bullpen arms.   For Festa it may be his best option.   

They can come up with a solid bullpen but its definitely going to be a work in progress.  I don't think they found the 1 elite arm they really needed to hold things together.  At this point even though they keep saying they are involved with big trades I am not seeing it.  

[Whitey333]

Same old Twins only worse this off season.  The same philosophy of by passing most decent free agents, then saying you tried to sign some big name to make it look good.  They then whine there are no decent free agents left.  The same crap year after year.  They only have hype and hope to sell to fans.  That is getting old.  This year 17 of our 81 home games will be played in April against some decent teams.  They will likely be out of contention before memorial day.  There is very little to root for except the development of the so-called can't miss prospects.  That's why I still continue to say we need to trade Ryan, Lopez, Jeffers and Buxton and get something decent in return while their value is relatively high.  They are a luxury on a terrible team and organization.  

[CBtwinsfan]

This might be looking through rose colored glasses, but the Twins could have a decent bullpen, although, young if the young guys have buy in to be releivers instead of starting pitchers.  The talent is there with Matthews, Preilipp, Festa and Raya, but will they all buy in to being releivers instead of starters.  If you have buy in I really believe the bullpen will be decent.  And, as for Canterino, the Twins might as well start him in the majors and let him pitch because history says he's going to get hurt and it might as well be trying to make it in the big leagues rather than the minor league, at lease he can say he gave it his all at attempting to pitch in the beg leagues.

[Major League Ready]

This will take 2-3 months minimum to sort through.  It's a similar scenario with position players except we do have one well-above average position player.    What is frightening is that Tom Pohlad looks at this situation and determines adding Bell and Caratini will make us contenders.  Falvey and Joe Pohlad were not the answer but I don't think they were as detrimental as this guy,

[4twinsJA]

I look for Twins to pick up a couple more castoffs during spring training. I think MacLeod is a sleeper for bullpen, not to start year, but later in year.

[DJL44]

Low strikeout pitchers combined with a bad defense will lead to bad results in the late innings.

[Chembry]

@Nick Nelson One small clarification.  Shelby Miller had surgery to repair his UCL and flexor tendon.  He will miss all of 2026.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/10/shelby-miller-undergoes-elbow-surgery.html

[twinzcynic]

"the Twins did indeed rank first in the American League in fWAR at the position."......"They ranked fourth in FIP but 23rd in ERA and 25th in WPA." 

This is my biggest gripe with fWAR. They base wins above replacement on what "should" happen vs the actual results on the field.

Also, many fans very much doubted the "Best Bullpen in Baseball" narrative pushed heavily on this site. I half expected another article touting this years crop of relievers, but alas, with the new front office there are no relationships formed and can thus be more honest. 

[Mahoning]

The Twins have been training their starters to go short for years, so the bullpen has to be ready to go at least four innings every game. That puts maximum stress on an overmatched group. Zebby has to go to the bullpen and probably one other youngster. Then the Twins have to let them learn by doing, with predictable failures along the way. Joe Ryan will have smoke coming out of his ears.

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Matt Caterino? He is an intriguing pitcher, who, before multiple injuries, was a rising prospect. Would someone from TD please do a story on him immediately. 

It is time to ramp up the annual Matt Canterino is the bullpen wild card.  I bet he starts the season in AAA.  But it would be great to get a full season from him 

[USAFChief]

Best case scenario is the terrible pen gets overlooked because they're bad but rarely blew leads due to rarely being given any.

This pen is weak, with absolutely zero depth.

 

[Exiled in Illinois]

Congrads!  We reached a milestone! This is the 100th article written on this subject this offseason, all saying the same things, followed by comments saying all the same things!  That horse is cooked!  Thank God spring training starts Thursday!  

[OregonTwinsFan]

Sad state of affairs...

[rdehring]

Add me to the list of those rooting for Canterino to finally put his health issues behind him.  Ever since viewing an interview Seth had with him back whenever, have been very impressed with this young man.  Please, let him finally realize some joy out of his professional life.  And some success.

If the Twins are converting several young starters to the pen, does it make sense that they work more than an inning each time out?  Maybe Zebby comes in to start the 7th inning and goes the rest of the way?  Or Festa comes in for the 6th inning and gets them to the ninth?  They wouldn't be able to pitch every day, but could three of these guys be on a schedule to be available every third game?  Say they make 45 appearances averaging 2 or 3 innings (2.5 average), that's 110+ innings.  

[Rigby]

[Rhyno006]

Quote

What's the Best-Case Scenario for the 2026 Twins Bullpen?

That is a loaded question... unlike our bullpen unfortunately. Really concerned about depth and talent with this crew. I like the Rogers addition but don't think it'll be enough to keep leads late in games.

Can't wait to bust out the pine tar soap in the shower on Thursday cuz it smells like beisbol season peeps! 

[Chembry]

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Matt Caterino? He is an intriguing pitcher, who, before multiple injuries, was a rising prospect. Would someone from TD please do a story on him immediately. 

 

24 minutes ago, Brandon said:

It is time to ramp up the annual Matt Canterino is the bullpen wild card.  I bet he starts the season in AAA.  But it would be great to get a full season from him 

If you are ever at Target Field and see someone wearing a Matt Canterino Jersey, it will likely be me.  I got a team issued jersey from a jersey grab bag. I was pleasantly surprised.

[strumdatjag]

This bullpen needs the honor and discipline that only the first KLINGON in MLB can bring.  I predict thatthis season, the Twins will elevate that KLINGON. Jarrett Whorff, to the MLB bullpen.  He will have to improve on his ERA over 5.5 last season. Make it so!

[DJL44]

33 minutes ago, Brandon said:

It is time to ramp up the annual Matt Canterino is the bullpen wild card.  I bet he starts the season in AAA.  But it would be great to get a full season from him 

It would be great to get 9 innings from him - that would add 10% to his total minor league innings pitched. The most likely outcome is he retires due to persistent injuries this spring. He hasn't pitched since 2022 and not one inning above Double-A (where he walked 5.8 batters per 9 innings). He's the longest of long shots.

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Matt Caterino? He is an intriguing pitcher, who, before multiple injuries, was a rising prospect. Would someone from TD please do a story on him immediately. 

After latest injury I thought he quit.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, twinzcynic said:

"the Twins did indeed rank first in the American League in fWAR at the position."......"They ranked fourth in FIP but 23rd in ERA and 25th in WPA." 

This is my biggest gripe with fWAR. They base wins above replacement on what "should" happen vs the actual results on the field.

Also, many fans very much doubted the "Best Bullpen in Baseball" narrative pushed heavily on this site. I half expected another article touting this years crop of relievers, but alas, with the new front office there are no relationships formed and can thus be more honest. 

I assume the f in fWAR stands for fantasy as in its a fantasy BS made up statistic.