What's the Best-Case Scenario for the 2026 Twins Bullpen?

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, twinzcynic said:

"the Twins did indeed rank first in the American League in fWAR at the position."......"They ranked fourth in FIP but 23rd in ERA and 25th in WPA." 

This is my biggest gripe with fWAR. They base wins above replacement on what "should" happen vs the actual results on the field.

You're likely to see more of that disconnect this year. FIP assumes average defensive support.

[Chembry]

3 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

After latest injury I thought he quit.

No- the Twins resigned him to a 2 year minor league deal.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/04/twins-sign-matt-canterino-to-two-year-minor-league-deal.html#:~:text=The Twins re-signed Matt,during Spring Training%2C last week.

[bunsen82]

6 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

After latest injury I thought he quit.

Nope had surgery to tighten up the shoulder.  They are hoping it reduces the constant muscle strains in the shoulder.  I give it 20% chance of working similar to a Buxton issue.  Sometimes the procedure makes a massive difference.  

[Parfigliano]

2 minutes ago, Chembry said:

No- the Twins resigned him to a 2 year minor league deal.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/04/twins-sign-matt-canterino-to-two-year-minor-league-deal.html#:~:text=The Twins re-signed Matt,during Spring Training%2C last week.

Makes sense.  Limited budget so throw money at always injured guy.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Ah yes, another day, another bullpen discussion. The only thing that changes is we are another day closer to accepting the reality that there isn't any cavalry riding over that hill to make the bullpen better. This year's bullpen will be based on what we have in house right now. 

To me, the answer is becoming more and more obvious. At least 1 and probably 2 of our current group of "young starters" are going to be in the bullpen for most if not all of 2026. My view is that will be Festa and Prielipp. Both have at least one good secondary pitch, but the fastball has just not quite been good enough. A couple of ticks up on the fastball velocity from pitching in short stints may be the answer there. Both have injury issues that make it unlikely that they will be able to pitch more than 75-100 innings this year. That's just not enough from a starter.  Both are at the age that they need to either show they can pitch in the Bigs or watch their prospect star fade. They are both really more suited to the bullpen at this stage and both could really help us. Klein and Morris could also help (especially since neither looks like they will make it as MLB starters), but I see them as the AAA depth with Adams for the inevitable injury needs. I would start both out in the AAA bullpen in high leverage spots to test their mettle. 

In sum. here's how I see things shaking out absent injuries in ST. SWR and Bradely are the #4 and #5 staters behind Lopez, Ryan and Ober, with Matthews, Abel, Rojas, CJ Culpepper, and maybe a FA castoff like Matt Bowman or someone we pick up on waivers as the AAA depth in that order.  The Twins bullpen is Sands, Topa, Rogers, Orze, Funderburk, plus 3 from Dan Altavilla, Jackson Kowar, Festa and Prielipp, with the odd man out, Morris, Klein, Adams, Bowman, and Raya as the AAA depth in that order. A guy like Trent Baker or Mike Peredes could join the bullpen depth list and move up quickly in the order. Caterino is a complete wild card but starts at AAA and could be anywhere from hurt to the top of depth list. That's my prediction. 

[jmlease1]

Best case scenario is pretty simple: Sands reemerges early in the season to handle high-leverage roles in the 8th & 9th, Taylor Rogers shows he has enough left in the tank to be the primary LHP in higher leverage situations, Topa stays healthy (LOL), and the funnel used to hash out who else fills out the rest of the bullpen shakes out quickly and they're able to settle in some of the converted guys. It can certainly work?

I do believe that you're better off building your bullpen this way, rather than spending big on FAs who throw limited innings and often have wide variance year over year. You want to staff up by converting starters with a weapon or two in their arsenal, but not enough to make it as starters (maybe it's because of endurance, not enough quality pitches, etc) and developing guys internally.

But the Twins dealt so much from their bullpen last season that they don't have enough certainty from Day 1. They cut so far that no matter the returns (and YMMV on whether they were the right or sufficient ones) you've put yourself in a position where this year is uncertain at best, potentially disastrous at worst. It's fine to be trying to sort and find 1-3 relievers to fill bullpen roles in a year, but we're looking at more like 4-6 (depending on how...charitable people want to be).

I think there are some starters that could thrive with a move to the bullpen. I think there are some arms from the minors that have a lot of upside in relief. But I also think it's going to take a while and some success/failure to sort out who they are, and the Cheap Pohlads self-imposed payroll limitations and the front office's choice of risk tolerance have left the team vulnerable in the bullpen.

[nicksaviking]

History says the Twins future back-end bullpen arms are already on the roster, we just don't know which ones. Top priority and expectation is to have a good idea about at least two of them come September.

The Twins made their choices regarding the bullpen last August. Neither they nor the fans should have any expectation of smooth sailing this year. I don't care how talented or untalented they are, you're not getting consistency from a brand new group of relievers without an extended amount of patience.

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

It would be great to get 9 innings from him - that would add 10% to his total minor league innings pitched. The most likely outcome is he retires due to persistent injuries this spring. He hasn't pitched since 2022 and not one inning above Double-A (where he walked 5.8 batters per 9 innings). He's the longest of long shots.

But he is our long time long standing long shot!

[terrydactyls]

Simple solution.  Require all starters to pitch complete games.

[mikelink45]

3 hours ago, CBtwinsfan said:

This might be looking through rose colored glasses, but the Twins could have a decent bullpen, although, young if the young guys have buy in to be releivers instead of starting pitchers.  The talent is there with Matthews, Preilipp, Festa and Raya, but will they all buy in to being releivers instead of starters.  If you have buy in I really believe the bullpen will be decent.  And, as for Canterino, the Twins might as well start him in the majors and let him pitch because history says he's going to get hurt and it might as well be trying to make it in the big leagues rather than the minor league, at lease he can say he gave it his all at attempting to pitch in the beg leagues.

None of them have really shown that they can handle MLB batters so why do we think we can convert them and have a good BP?  How many starters have failed the transition to BP?  As stats confirm SP often find the first inning the most difficult.  In the BP they may only get one inning.  

• Joe Ross: Released by the Phillies in 2025 after a failed stint as a long reliever.
• Jordan Hicks: Demoted to the bullpen in 2025 after a failed attempt to convert from a reliever back into a starter.
• Phil Hughes: Struggled significantly to maintain form in 2011-2012, including a 5.79 ERA, despite early career flashes.
• James McDonald: Danger of being demoted to the bullpen in 2011 due to struggles in the rotation.
• Lucas Sims, Colin Poche, & Jorge López: All removed from the Nationals roster by June 2025 due to high ERAs in the bullpen. 

It works often, but no guarantee.

[oregontwin]

1 hour ago, Rigby said:

EEEKKK

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Rigby said:

Not sure how this got past the monitors, but I've reported you for profanity.

(Not using profanity...causing profanity. ;)  )

[Patzky]

4 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Matt Caterino? He is an intriguing pitcher, who, before multiple injuries, was a rising prospect. Would someone from TD please do a story on him immediately. 

I was surprised to see him as an invitee .. and am surprised not to see Genesis Cabrera again

[Chembry]

3 minutes ago, Patzky said:

I was surprised to see him as an invitee .. and am surprised not to see Genesis Cabrera again

Phillies signed Genesis Cabrerra to a minor league deal in January

[Pykkman]

Had they not traded Varland….. the bullpen looks so much better for the next many years.  The return for him better stand out 

[Rosterman]

TWO FACTORS!

The 40man roster is pretty tight. One pitcher spot potentially open. We might free up three position players, at best, if Twins decide there is not a need to keep out-of-option guys.

Who moves to the pen? ANyone think Ober would be better there? We talk about Matthews and Festa converting. Eitehr would probably see a need of some time at St. Paul. Although Spring Training, with the short stint might prove useful enough. I would develp Travis Adams into an exclusively one-inning guy and see if he can take the place of Jax or Varland, and maybe appear in 70 games for the season.

Prielopp and Canterino are two guys that could shine. They probably want Conrad to be a starter but if he can impress in spring training, make him a bulpen arm like they did Duran. How much time does Canterino need to comeback at AAA.

Lewis is intrigiung, but have to make the choice of a bullpen specialist, multi-inning guy, or 5-inning starter. Same with Raya. Both need to get an assigned role at St. Paul, stick to it, and develop pitches accordingly.

Festa rehab time? Is Bradley a starter or relief arm. Same with Matthews. With Bradley it will take convincing. Too many guys see rotation as the way to riches. Hey, just staying in the majors is some way is what you want.

Coulombe hasn't signed with anyone, yet. Could the Twins carry three lefties in the pen. Fundeburk had a good end of the season. Still don't totally trust him. Is Liam Hendriks still looking for a job? Seems he expects to showcase himself in the World Baseball Classic.

I don't put much stock in any of the minor league free agents/spring training invites. Even wonder why bother with them at AAA. Again, you would have to have a rotating 40-man spot to bring any one onto the team.

[rdehring]

2 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Simple solution.  Require all starters to pitch complete games.

Was thinking about this, terry, while reading all these comments.  How many complete games did Blyleven pitch?  Or my favorite pitcher of all time, Warren Spahn?  Some of us remember days when the bullpen had one very good closer and several others who almost never saw the mound.  Bullpen sure looks different if one of the starter goes 9 innings most games and two others always go 7 or 8.

[edit: decided to check, Spahn had 382 complete games, Bert had 242.  Both had more than 60 shutouts.  Spahn had a complete game in over 50% of his starts.]

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, rdehring said:

Was thinking about this, terry, while reading all these comments.  How many complete games did Blyleven pitch?  Or my favorite pitcher of all time, Warren Spahn?  Some of us remember days when the bullpen had one very good closer and several others who almost never saw the mound.  Bullpen sure looks different if one of the starter goes 9 innings most games and two others always go 7 or 8.

And Box seats at the Met in 1965 were $3.50.

Don't think we'll see either coming back.

 

[Parfigliano]

44 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

TWO FACTORS!

The 40man roster is pretty tight. One pitcher spot potentially open. We might free up three position players, at best, if Twins decide there is not a need to keep out-of-option guys.

Who moves to the pen? ANyone think Ober would be better there? We talk about Matthews and Festa converting. Eitehr would probably see a need of some time at St. Paul. Although Spring Training, with the short stint might prove useful enough. I would develp Travis Adams into an exclusively one-inning guy and see if he can take the place of Jax or Varland, and maybe appear in 70 games for the season.

Prielopp and Canterino are two guys that could shine. They probably want Conrad to be a starter but if he can impress in spring training, make him a bulpen arm like they did Duran. How much time does Canterino need to comeback at AAA.

Lewis is intrigiung, but have to make the choice of a bullpen specialist, multi-inning guy, or 5-inning starter. Same with Raya. Both need to get an assigned role at St. Paul, stick to it, and develop pitches accordingly.

Festa rehab time? Is Bradley a starter or relief arm. Same with Matthews. With Bradley it will take convincing. Too many guys see rotation as the way to riches. Hey, just staying in the majors is some way is what you want.

Coulombe hasn't signed with anyone, yet. Could the Twins carry three lefties in the pen. Fundeburk had a good end of the season. Still don't totally trust him. Is Liam Hendriks still looking for a job? Seems he expects to showcase himself in the World Baseball Classic.

I don't put much stock in any of the minor league free agents/spring training invites. Even wonder why bother with them at AAA. Again, you would have to have a rotating 40-man spot to bring any one onto the team.

Canterino shine?  The organization probably considers it a banner day if he doesn't injure his arm brushing his teeth.

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

None of them have really shown that they can handle MLB batters so why do we think we can convert them and have a good BP?  How many starters have failed the transition to BP? 

When you give them a full year to transition to a reliever, very few actually. Count Duran, Jax, Varland, Sands, Rogers, Pressly, May, Duffey, Duensing and Perkins in the positive column of converted starters for the Twins. Should have stuck with Ronnie Hernandez and Liam Hendricks too. 

In the same time period, so since Perkins' successful conversion, on the negative side we have Josh Winder, Fernando Romero, Anthony Swarzak and Jeff Manship. Jordan Balazovic never got a full year trial in the bullpen, but even with him, this transition pays off much more frequently than free agents do. And it costs the team nothing.

[TheLeviathan]

Best case scenario?

The regular 9 are so bad that any futility by the bullpen is largely meaningless.

[Brandon]

16 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Best case scenario?

The regular 9 are so bad that any futility by the bullpen is largely meaningless.

 

16 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Best case scenario?

The regular 9 are so bad that any futility by the bullpen is largely meaningless.

Outside of Lee, who sux?  Lewis is a maybe.  Either he sux again or hits 25+ HRs with .270 ave, Keaschal looks good, Bell is solid offensively.  larnarch is a average and every one else looks pretty good

 

[Danchat]

Best case scenario, a few starter prospects successfully transition to the pen so the 2027 bullpen has a chance to build around something. I don't really care about what the likes of Rogers and Topa do, they aren't long-term pieces and probably won't be back next year. 

[DocBauer]

There's no question a couple of starters are going to transition that haven't been announced as of yet. Probably because they're going to still be rotation options to begin ST. You've got to see who's really throwing well and is showing improvement and looks ready, and also see who is maybe a step behind and ready for the pen.

I do think Festa is obvious for all the reasons that have been repeatedly gone over. But who's the next best candidate. Is it Matthews? Or is he just being named because he's shown mixed results so far? I mean, has Bradley really shown henhas a brighter future than Matthews at this point? Honestly, I don't have an opinion beyond Festa. I just want the Twins to be smart enough to make the right decisions.

It would really stink to see Matthews, for example, moved to the pen and then see Bradley not take a step forward. Did they make the wrong choice? The Twins coaches and scouts and instructors are a lot closer to the situation than we are. Surely they can look at pitcher A and pitcher B, understand their stuff and their command, and decide who has the brighter future in the rotation, and who has the brighter future in the pen.

For arguements sake, let's move Matthews to the pen with Festa since the idea has been broached. OK, done. Where is your rotation depth? Abel and Morris would seem next in line working at St Paul as the 6th and 7th options. That's not bad. Hopefully the Twins are rightly optimistic about Rojas. As of TODAY, he's probably option #8, hopefully not needed until later in the summer, if at all. I'm guessing for NOW CJ Culpepper stays as a SP. That could change down the road, but the Twins need depth, St Paul needs starters, and CJ could use a healthy 2026 to see where he ultimately fits.

Potentially, that's some pretty decent depth.

My gut tells me the Twins are still going to add 1 more FA arm for depth and experience. Is that someone like Kopech or Hendricks on a 1yr make good deal? IDK. But 1 more FA...not discounting a possible trade...will be added.

So your pen is Sands, hopefully, returning more to his 2024 performance level. Rogers offers experience...and still solid results in recent years...as the #1 LH option for the latter innings. Topa is OK, but needs to come in with the bases clean. (At least he's "been there done that" before). Funderburk is the #2 LH, and that's not horrible if his 2025 maturation is close to real. Orze has at least shown some potential in relatively SSS. Can he at least be a decent 6th inning arm? How much potential might he have? (He's got options available) And again, I'm expecting ONE additional add. Who and how good remains TBD. And in this scenario, Festa and Matthews are converted. And neither has anything left to prove at AAA. They might be gradually built up to 8th and 9th inning roles, or they might get thrown in to the deep end immediately, but they shouldn't need more time at St Paul.

So Sands, Rogers, Topa, Funderburk, Orze, VETERAN ADD, Festa, and Matthews. That's 8 unless my brain is forgetting someone. That might not be great, but you can see the makings of a decent pen. All the more so with Festa and Matthews maturing quickly in their roles to join Sands and Rogers for the back end. 

But like the rotation, you need depth. So who's next?

Invariably, the Twins always seem to find SOMEONE off the proverbial "scrapheap" who surprises. I'm just not going to predict who, but it does seem to happen. Adams, no surprise, is fully converted. He's got decent velocity, a decent breaking ball, but his FB is too straight. Is he a tweak away from more movement and greater velocity when only tossing 1-2 innings? Raya, by all accounts, has some good offerings. But with previous struggles as a starter, and ZERO ML experience, he's going to need AAA time in his new role to actually find some success. I remember rumors of Lewis possibly converting. He's flashed at times, and shown real K ability. Can his velocity jump, refine ONE breaking ball, and then flash that crazy knuckleball as a 3rd option? I think he might be really good in the pen, but like Raya, he could really use some time in St Paul's pen adjusting to his new role. And I have a gut feeling Klein could be really good! While his AAA debut wasn't great to begin with, he settled down and finished solid. He's a big, strong kid with some solid offerings and good K results. I could see HIM jumping in to the discussion really quickly.

And then there's the Prielipp debate. It's really hard not to dream about him remaining a SP option and getting in 100+ IP for St Paul in 2026, refining his offerings and approach, and learning how to better sequence and put batters away more quickly. And it's not as if he's old. But does he have a better, brighter, more immediate future in the pen rather than continuing a build up? It's not hard to see him as a potential late inning fireman/setup option from the LH side as early as June.

So eliminating a potential veteran surprise, rebound candidate, and ONLY focusing on the younger arms: Adams, Raya, Lewis, Klein, and Prielipp are next in line. Ideally, they can all get a couple months in the Saints bullpen to adjust to their new roles. But you can start to see a decent ML pen, with more arms on the way, and a better pen from June/July onwards vs opening day.

For giggles, keep an eye on a trio of MILB kids who might step up and be ready to contribute later in the year:

Christian MacLeod, LHP...mentioned by another poster...is a former SP at AAA already converted to the pen. He was really good at AA last season, but was inconsistent when he reached AAA around mid season. He lowers his BB numbers, he just might contribute sooner rather than later as a depth option.

Jaylin Nowlin, LHP. The kid has good velocity, good K numbers, a funky delivery, and can be nasty at times. But his BB numbers just don't work. He converted to the pen in '25. And he was in ST for a while last season. He runs hot and cold. A little more control, he could be with St Paul quickly. 

Hunter Hoopes, RHP. If you've never heard of him, it's OK. But you should take a moment to look him up. Basically, he was at a training facility, with a bit of a running start, and threw 107mph. The Twins signed him out of the Independent Leagues and he was a professional rookie in 2025. He basically BLEW AWAY the competition at low and high A last season before running in to some trouble at AA late in the season. The Twins sent him to the AFL this offseason where he also put up bad numbers. But let that fool you. That was about getting in work for 2026. Of course he doesn't throw 107 in real games. But he sits in the high 90's. And he'll begin 2026 at AA Wichita. But a little more command, and refinement of his secondary offerings, he could be in AAA by mid season.

It's unusual to have optimism for MILB RP as we're just so used to seeing the Twins convert SP to the pen with good results. But these 3 INCLUDE 2 MILB SP who have recently converted already, and 1 flier that could be a surprise.

I CAN see the makings of a "competent" bullpen to open the season. And I can see a bullpen that's better, and deeper, from June/July onwards. I guess I'm just trusting Maki and others of making the right choices. POTENTIAL can either be an ugly word, or a good word. It depends on the outcome. 

I know this might sound silly to most of you, but I can ALMOST see a better pen the first couple of months vs the position player roster. But I can see BOTH being better from June/July onwards. But will that be too late to save the 2026 season?

 

[DJL44]

FYI - Matt Canterino has already been ruled out for spring training due to his shoulder.

[TheLeviathan]

4 hours ago, Brandon said:

 

Outside of Lee, who sux?  Lewis is a maybe.  Either he sux again or hits 25+ HRs with .270 ave, Keaschal looks good, Bell is solid offensively.  larnarch is a average and every one else looks pretty good

 

This is a bad defensive team who isn't an elite strikeout team.  It's also virtually the same offense that finished 17th in OPS and that was with Buxton playing out of his mind and healthy all year.  And with two guys who helped raise that OPS who aren't here anymore (Bader and Castro).  

[terrydactyls]

8 hours ago, USAFChief said:

And Box seats at the Met in 1965 were $3.50.

Don't think we'll see either coming back.

 

And gas was $0.19.  So what?

[DarrenPS]

Move Festa to the pen, give Zebby another chance as a starter pls

[Brandon]

2 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

This is a bad defensive team who isn't an elite strikeout team.  It's also virtually the same offense that finished 17th in OPS and that was with Buxton playing out of his mind and healthy all year.  And with two guys who helped raise that OPS who aren't here anymore (Bader and Castro).  

But includes a full season of Keaschal, Bell, Cartini, and a full season of Wallner, Lewis could rebound to a solid player, and we have several hitters in the high minors waiting for a shot.  The offense will be fine. We will have a 6-10 ranked offense this season.  

[RaoulDuke]

Sands/ Rogers/ Topa are all 7th inning dudes if it goes well.  Orze could be there as well.

Outside of that it is going to be a mix of starters and prospects.

It will be one of the more interesting things to follow this year because it is likely to be tumultuous.