Why the Twins Should Sign Free-Agent Starter Framber Valdez

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

As the MLB offseason nears its end, the best remaining free agents are starting pitchers Zac Gallen and Framber Valdez. Even the next-best tier is made up mostly of starters, too—guys like Nick Martinez, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt, Lucas Giolito and Zack Littell. For the Minnesota Twins, that's not obviously helpful, because the starting rotation is the strongest segment of their roster right now. Led by frontline, playoff-caliber starters Pablo López and Joe Ryan, the rotation has been the pillar around which the rest of the roster has crumbled over the last two seasons.

However, the team's depth in starters doesn't prohibit them from improving by adding to the group, as long as they land someone who is genuinely likely to deliver above-average performance. Last year, injuries and shaky command left Bailey Ober a shell of his previous self, but he's penciled in as the No. 3 starter for the team with spring training on the horizon. A signing that pushes Ober down to fourth in the rotation and leaves the club's cluster of young, controllable starters vying for places in the bullpen or Triple-A St. Paul would be a wise investment, since new chairman Tom Pohlad seems intent on having the team challenge for a playoff berth in 2026.

Thus, Valdez is beginning to make some sense for the Twins. It would be a very unusual move from a team this deep in an offseason this underwhelming, but Minnesota could still increase their payroll a bit from the present projection of $108.9 million. Valdez, 32, is a two-time All-Star and has averaged 192 innings per year over the last four seasons. He's as reliable an innings-eater as any starter in the league, and although Gallen is almost as durable, Valdez is the one guy who combines volume and impact in a way that could take the Twins' pitching staff to another level.

It would take a minor miracle of coaching and development (not to mention good health) to make the 2026 Twins more than an average team when it comes to run production. However, with another high-upside arm like Valdez's in the mix, they could become a nearly elite run prevention club. That's the most realistic path to an AL Central title for the team this year, and if they do get to October with a starting rotation of Valdez, López and Ryan, anything is possible. They might even find that they can reinforce the positional side of the roster at the trade deadline, or that young players like Walker Jenkins and Luke Keaschall transform them into a more complete team by season's end.

Valdez is still available because the long-term, nine-figure deal he envisioned when the winter began has not materialized. His price would have to swoop quite low for the Twins to become a legitimate candidate to sign him, but the team has been known to pull off unexpected February splashes. More importantly, there are already signs that Valdez's market is down low enough for that possibility to appear on the radar. A deal somewhat similar to the one the Padres roughed out with Nick Pivetta last winter—whereby Pivetta was guaranteed up to $55 million over four years and had the right to hit the market again after either of the first two seasons, but which helped San Diego by being heavily backloaded and including conditional club options—might end up making sense for both sides.

After the departure of Derek Falvey last week, the temptation to doubt that the Twins will do anything of note for the balance of the offseason is understandable. The team continues to proclaim their intention to get better, though, and in a market drying up in a hurry, signing Valdez is one of very few ways they could still concretely do so.

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[thelanges5]

Tom does say he wants to be competitive. Let’s do it why not?

[Blyleven2011]

One can dream but the chances of a player that commands a high salary are over until we get new owners ...

The pohlads can't afford baseball anymore with the signings of ohtani and Soto , since these two have signed with dodgers and mets the pohlads have gone in the other direction  , other than buxton , the only position player making more than 10 million on twins payroll isn't even on the roster  ...

They tried it with Donaldson and Correa  ,  they have paid Puckett and others  that were home grown to stay , Mauer they gave him a 8 year contract at 183 million  , if the pohlads are going to stay in baseball  , they need to pay our homegrown great players to stay  .. 

One problem right now is  " where are they  "

[mike8791]

Why spend scarce resources on a rotation that is considered the single strength of the team as currently rostered?  If there is any surplus, it should only be spent on the pen which, as it currently stands, will most certainly doom the team to 5th in a weak AL Central.

[Cris E]

Talk about blocking the kids, you go directly to the only part of the team that's above average, with the longest line of prospects on the verge of graduating to the bigs and want to spend a ton of money.  

Clickbait.

 

[bunsen82]

We were unwilling to meet Joe Ryan in the middle until push came to shover over 500k,  but we can find the money to Valdez,  why don't we just extend Ryan?  

[palmspringstwinsfan]

Articles like this make no sense and add nothing to the conversation. The team is about as likely to sign Valdez as it is to trade for Ohtani. Do better. 

[tony&rodney]

When I thought about putting up a "What Now?" under the Twins Forum site, Framber Valdez was one of my first thoughts. It makes sense in many ways. Of course that may be why the Twins do not consider this move.

Signing Valdez would strengthen the Twins starting rotation and allow them to trade Bailey Ober and Trevor Larnach plus more for Jordan Lawler and Justin Martinez. 

There are still opportunities. The Chicago White Sox are making moves. So can Minnesota.

[arby58]

The article doesn't touch on the fact that Valdez is an elite ground ball pitcher. The Twins infield does not inspire confidence in support of that type of pitcher. If I were Valdez, the Twins would be close to the bottom of my list of places to go - probably after high altitude Colorado and the AAA infield in Sacramento.

[DJL44]

He would be a great addition to the Brewers.

[tony&rodney]

42 minutes ago, arby58 said:

The article doesn't touch on the fact that Valdez is an elite ground ball pitcher. The Twins infield does not inspire confidence in support of that type of pitcher. If I were Valdez, the Twins would be close to the bottom of my list of places to go - probably after high altitude Colorado and the AAA infield in Sacramento.

True. Get Lawler and hope he becomes something. Put Jenkins in RF. Do something to change the makeup of the roster.

[Greglw3]

That’s a really excellent idea! I agree on the impact potential on winning, lengthening the rotation and especially it’s imperative that Tom Pohlad put his money where his mouth is and allow Jeremy Zoll to strike!

I think with Jenkins, G Gonzalez, E Rodriguez, maybe even Rosario or Fedko and Culpepper and Mendez that the impact on the Twins offense could be significant. Let’s turn these talented studs loose!!!

[LewFordLives]

They can have the greatest rotation in the world, but it won't matter one bit if they can't hold leads in the late innings.

I'm always receptive to out of the box thinking, but I just don't see a fit between Valdez and the Twins.

[Permanent Twins Fan]

Sounds like a lot of fun, but there are a lot of young pitchers coming up so there are probably better ways to spend at least 15-20 million a year. 20 million dollars invested into the bullpen could go a long ways toward getting a competitive bullpen. Now, of course, if the Twins did sign Framber Valdez, you will not hear a negative comment from me. 

[GNess]

3 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

One can dream but the chances of a player that commands a high salary are over until we get new owners ...

The pohlads can't afford baseball anymore with the signings of ohtani and Soto , since these two have signed with dodgers and mets the pohlads have gone in the other direction  , other than buxton , the only position player making more than 10 million on twins payroll isn't even on the roster  ...

They tried it with Donaldson and Correa  ,  they have paid Puckett and others  that were home grown to stay , Mauer they gave him a 8 year contract at 183 million  , if the pohlads are going to stay in baseball  , they need to pay our homegrown great players to stay  .. 

One problem right now is  " where are they  "

Agree 100%. I would think the occasional opportunity free agent signing coupled with more effort to keep the in house players would be a more clear message of their plan to compete.

[Cory Engelhardt]

If we play this out, would this make anyone more open to then trading Ryan?

Let’s say they could get Valdez for 3-4 years. Would turning around and trading Ryan for a good young defensive SS be a smart move? Ryan certainly isn’t going to extend here for only that amount of time. Just a thought 

[AceWrigley]

Manchild Valdez is probably not a good fit in our clubhouse. Ask the catchers.

[Dman]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

When I thought about putting up a "What Now?" under the Twins Forum site, Framber Valdez was one of my first thoughts. It makes sense in many ways. Of course that may be why the Twins do not consider this move.

Signing Valdez would strengthen the Twins starting rotation and allow them to trade Bailey Ober and Trevor Larnach plus more for Jordan Lawler and Justin Martinez. 

There are still opportunities. The Chicago White Sox are making moves. So can Minnesota.

Was thinking the same thing.  They could trade Larnach and Ober or Jeffers to get some money back.  It would allow them to move Festa and maybe Bradley to the pen right away.  If they needed more in the pen they could try Abel there and maybe later in the season Prielipp would make sense.  If it all falls apart later in the season then you could still trade Ryan or Pablo to help pay for Valdez.

Twins would finally have a Lefty starter and three top of the rotation arms should allow them to compete at least through the first half of games.  If Tom wants to put his money where his mouth is it seems like something that could move the needle IMO. 

Not sure how much it would take to get him.  Sounded like they were looking for around 30M AAV on a longer deal.  Probably too rich for Pohlad blood.

[Jacksson]

Aren't the humor pieces supposed to start out by informing the reader that the story is humor?  And aren't the "funny" stories done by a different author ?? 

[I Never Bet On Sports]

Valdez comes with baggage which is contributing to why he is not signed. I could envision him signing a one year deal to distance himself from the crossing up his catcher debacle and the qualifying offer. The Pohlads love a bargain. If they could sign him to a $15-20MM base contract with innings incentives that get him closer to $30MM the Twins would be able to flip him at the deadline if they are not competitive having only spent $9-12MM up to that point. If he does well the return would most likely be better than the draft pick they have to give up to sign him. Low probability of this happening, but there is a path to someone signing him to a one year deal. Why not the Twins?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I think the idea is a good one, strengthening the rotation and bumping a starting prospect to the bullpen or trading for a position player makes a lot sense. As others point out, the Twins need a fly ball pitcher not a ground ball pitcher to make that work. Not Valdez but I like the concept.

[rv78]

Valdez is too expensive for the Twins, even if he is entering the discount zone of time for Free Agents. The Twins already have a Valdez type pitcher on their roster and I would be less surprised to see him (Ryan) traded than another pitcher like him signed. Besides, adding to your strength (rotation) while leaving the bare cupboard (bullpen) empty doesn't really improve the team. This would look like a Falvey move. Maybe they could bring in another left-handed hitting corner outfielder too?

[CRF]

Not gonna happen.

[Eris]

3 hours ago, I Never Bet On Sports said:

Valdez comes with baggage which is contributing to why he is not signed.

I agree with this. He seems like someone who could make a clubhouse very toxic. 
 

 

[Tjwalsh65]

I would think we should sign Littell is he would go to the Pen.   Then if Ober struggles as a starter they could switch places.

 

[rdehring]

Love the comments.  But this move doesn't address their biggest problem, the bullpen.  Will say it again, trade Larnach or Larnach plus for a good young reliever.  Then use those saved dollars to sign another player for either the pen or shortstop defense.  That's assuming there are still players out there who could help.

[TopGunn#22]

My initial thought on this would be "why sign a veteran SP pitcher when the largest collection of talent our team currently has resides in our starting rotation?"  On top of that, I don't like that it blocks some young arms that I think NEED to pitch in the rotation this year.

The 2nd thought that springs to mind is this would be brilliant if there are impactful trades to follow.  It's the ONLY way this makes any sense.

Valdez has a lot to like when considering our rotation:  He's a horse...he consistently eats innings and he's won double digits in FIVE consecutive seasons. He's eminently durable.  He would be a glue guy for a rotation.

There is the whole "Catcher Cross Up" incident last year.  Well, the Twins are uniquely qualified to get a first hand perspective.  Who was the Catcher that was "crossed up?"  Was it Diaz or Caratini?  Ask Caratini about what went down.

Signing Valdez, followed by trades of Ober (21.0) BBTV, Jeffers (15.3), Larnach (3.8) and possibly Wallner (20.5) puts the Twins in the position to leverage 40.1 of total value (60.6 if you include Wallner).  There is also the possibly of cashing in Ryan's immense 52.8 value after seeing what Peralta and Gore just cost, although I'd hang onto him to have a Ryan, Lopez, Valdez top 3 with SWR, Bradley, Matthews and Abel in competition for spots #4 & #5.  Festa is already in the pen.  Possibly Prilelipp.  And maybe one of Bradley, Matthews or Abel rounds out the pen.  

So what could the Twins get for 40.1 points of value (or 60.6 if you include Wallner).

They could try to pry a bat from Boston:  Gold Glove OF Wilyer Abreu and Tristan Casas for power.  Or Jarren Duran (also a very good OF).  They add pop to the lineup and superior OF defense, while Duran adds a speed element that would go with Buxton and Keaschall.  I like tony&rodney's idea of Jordan Lawler as someone to challenge Brooks Lee.  Justin Martinez is an elite closer but would be more of a 2027 impact due to Tommy John surgery last season.  

At first blush, the idea seems counterintuitive.  But if you allow for a strategy to leverage a deep rotation in a world where SP is always costly, the Twins could bring in some difference making bats.  Tom Pohlad said he likes to go big.  O.K. Tom...put some money behind that mouth of yours and get to work.  

[strumdatjag]

15 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

When I thought about putting up a "What Now?" under the Twins Forum site, Framber Valdez was one of my first thoughts. It makes sense in many ways. Of course that may be why the Twins do not consider this move.

Signing Valdez would strengthen the Twins starting rotation and allow them to trade Bailey Ober and Trevor Larnach plus more for Jordan Lawler and Justin Martinez. 

There are still opportunities. The Chicago White Sox are making moves. So can Minnesota.

No need to trade Ober.  Move him to the pen.  Maybe he can regain some velo in shorter stints.  I know I’m not the first one to suggest this. 

[hlsballer318]

2 hours ago, Eris said:

I agree with this. He seems like someone who could make a clubhouse very toxic. 
 

 

Sign him and I'll say the catcher was in the wrong

[amjgt]

21 hours ago, palmspringstwinsfan said:

Articles like this make no sense and add nothing to the conversation. The team is about as likely to sign Valdez as it is to trade for Ohtani. Do better. 

We're all just getting through the offseason, pal.

If it doesn't add to the conversation that YOU want, then don't click on the very appropriately titled article link. 

I personally like that type of conversation. I like thinking about the reasons why it would make sense to do things that don't immediately seem to make sense. I like thinking outside the box. Nobody is predicting that it will happen. We're all here killing time until April.