Louis Varland: Painful Loss or Proof of Concept?

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images

The bullpen sell-off at last year's trade deadline was staggering in its sweeping totality, but when you drill down to the individual moves, most weren't terribly surprising. Unloading the free-agency-bound Danny Coulombe was a given. Brock Stewart's brief run of decent health made him a clear sell-high guy. Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax were known trade candidates, pitching well with two-plus years of control remaining.

The real shocker was the late-breaking decision to trade Louis Varland. Even for a rebuilding team, this decision was tough to figure, with Varland still under team control for five years and seemingly a great fit as the carryover building block in a reimagined unit.

The message sent in trading him, and completing a bullpen teardown that left almost nothing behind: we can create more Varlands. The Twins seem to believe he is the case-in-point for the argument in favor of their course of action — a ground-up bullpen rebuild based on transitioning marginal starters into standout relievers.

In fairness, he's a compelling example. Varland was a respectable talent while rising through the minors, even winning Twins minor-league pitcher of the year honors twice, but he was a 15th-round draft pick and never a true top prospect. When given the chance to start in the majors, he repeatedly came up short. 

But when the Twins flipped the switch from starter to reliever, first temporarily in the 2023 playoffs and then permanently last season, Varland transformed into something else entirely: a dominant force, a natural. Coming out of the pen, he was a different pitcher. The type that draws big interest from contenders at the deadline.

You can make similar arguments for Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax, but they both have pretty unique traits that enable them to thrive as relievers: Duran's unrivaled velocity, Jax's deep arsenal of high-quality pitches. Relatively speaking, Varland keeps it pretty simple. He's got a hard fastball and one good breaking ball, and he relies on that tandem almost exclusively at the expense of his lesser offerings. 

Theoretically, that player type — hard-throwing righty with one good secondary — is abundant in the Twins system, and almost any system really. Most teams just aren't brazen enough to go all-in on the strategy of rapidly manufacturing MLB relievers out of these fringy, unproven young arms. Yet it appears to be exactly where Minnesota's front office is headed as they sit out the free-agent relief market entirely and hurtle toward spring training with a collection of "starters" on the 40-man roster that includes: Zebby Matthews, David Festa, Mick Abel, Travis Adams, Pierson Ohl, Andrew Morris, Kendry Rojas, Connor Prielipp, Marco Raya, John Klein. Some of these guys are going to the bullpen, without much delay. There's no practical way around it.

This flip-switch doesn't always take, at least not right away. We saw the downside play out in the second half last year as Adams and Ohl floundered, despite possessing a similar type of prospect intrigue as Varland did when he was coming up. There's also the matter of selling young pitchers on this plan of giving up their future as starters before it has much chance to take shape.

Then again, this could be another area where Varland serves as a valuable precedent to reference. Looking back now, you wonder if both team and player feel like pursuing the opportunity to start in 2024 was a waste of time. He ended up struggling badly in the majors with a 7.61 ERA and spent most of his season in Triple-A, delaying his service clock and big-league paydays at age 26.

With the current SP depth chart as it is, there are going to be a lot of nominal "starter" prospects headed to the minors to open up the 2026 campaign. That is, unless they immediately embrace the relief role, where their strengths can be maximized, injuries can be reduced, and the MLB path is fast-tracked.

As a persuasive proof of concept, the Twins can point to Varland, who went within the span of one-year from flameout starter toiling in St. Paul to entrenched MLB bullpen fixture, setting the all-time record for postseason appearances with Toronto. It was an amazing evolution and one that the Twins seem to be banking on their ability to repeat, several times over.

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[Trov]

I have held there was more going on behind the scene with Varland.  On the surface it clearly makes little sense to give up a back of pen guy with that many years of control.  However, if the FO has some issues with him, then it makes sense.  I am not saying Varland is a bad guy or anything, but when he was flopped to pen in 23, he was not happy with it.  He then failed as starter in 24, and was moved full time pen in 25.  Based on his age and years of control his earning potential is greatly decreased now.  

He would have slotted right into the closer roll, increasing her earning potential, and my guess he would have wanted to recoup that lost value in his arb years, assuming he stayed "closer".  That would have led to bigger fights. 

[AceWrigley]

Derek Derek, turn on the reliever making machine.

 

[LewFordLives]

As the article states, the flip switch doesn't always turn on right away. So why waste years developing a guy only to ship him out once he becomes a contributor, only for more projects in return?  How does a team sustain success that way?

This team will not score many runs, and they like to pull their young starters after five innings. A good bullpen is a necessity for the Twins to compete. They took a strength and turned it into a giant question mark.

And trading away a hometown guy is just bad P.R. I really don't know what the hell they were thinking with this trade.

[thelanges5]

Tom Pohlad recently reminded us that Rome wasn’t built in a day. Neither will this bullpen.
The previous one was pretty good but Durán Jax Varland Sands weren’t all flipped to the BP in one offseason. 

[mnfireman]

9 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

There is one catch 22 for this.  Varland relented to go to the BP and thrived so much that the team refused to allow him to return to the rotation.  Who knows if that would have worked.  I think Jax would have made it back to starter given his variety in pitches.

Varland showed enough in the BP as a long reliever in '23 for the team to try him as a starter again in '24, that didn't work out, and his run as long reliever that year was horrible. In '25 he had great numbers with the Twins in short relief through the trade deadline, but regressed horribly in Toronto, including the play-offs despite (because of?) setting the record for appearances in one play-off season. He was not going back to rotation as he had been used in short relief all season, we'll see how Toronto views him.

Jax was never going to go back to the rotation, or the team would have had him stretch out in the off-season between '24 & '25 and continued to do so in ST '25, especially with the concerns over Paddack's innings limit and questions around SWR being able to handle a full-season work load.

[bean5302]

It remains to be seen how Louie Varland will age. There are plenty of examples of short career starters who converted to relievers who flame out quickly. Tyler Duffey is a good one.

I think Duffey is especially valuable as an example because it took a couple years to really start seeing value as a reliever once he converted. Jax took a couple years to become a dominant force as well, even if he was a solid reliever the year after his conversion.

In the offseason after 2021, Falvey blew up the bullpen and backfilled innings with converted starters Jax, Duran, and to a lesser extent, Cole Sands. Duran is viewed as a major success; however, it was never explored whether or not he could handle a starter's workload. If Duran was deployed as a starter, he could potentially have been a Cy Young candidate.

Certainly, Duran's production as a closer has been great. I'm still not sure it was a solution which worked out, but sacrificed something so much bigger.

We'll see what happens in a vacuum. Roden could take a leap forward this coming season which would easily make the trade worthwhile for the Twins. Rojas had a very disappointing debut in St. Paul so that'll have to be watched.

[nicksaviking]

30 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Tom Pohlad recently reminded us that Rome wasn’t built in a day. Neither will this bullpen.
The previous one was pretty good but Durán Jax Varland Sands weren’t all flipped to the BP in one offseason. 

No, but if the team is willing to do it with three or four such starters in one year instead of over four years, you might find that two or three of them are ready to thrive in 2027.

And they have way more than three or four such starters they could do this with.

[Rosterman]

I still remember Frankie Rodriguez throwing a hissy fit back in 1997 when the Twins wanted him to try being a reliever. All about the money. But, again, you don't make money if you can't pitch in the majors.

Duran became a lights out stopper, partly because the Twins feared stretching him out to be a starter. He will still thrive once he hits free agency. Jax, like such guys as Guarado, Hawkins, Perkins, were all failed starting pitchers who found life in the bullpen.

I didn't expect the Twins to trade Duran, Jax AND Varland. I was hoping that one of the two of Jax or Varland would be the stopper of the future.

Yes, the Twins currently sit at 14 rotation arms, only 12 if Ryan or Lopez relocate. There are at least four pitchers also in the mix who would step into a probable rotation mid-2027. So, a couple will need to be bullpen arms if they wish to see major league action. I would say none of the 10 listed above are first class tradebait for now. At best, there might be interest in Woods Richardson.

Adams, Ohl are surefire bullpen arms. Prielipp, too. I would do the Duran appraoch, try to get 40-50 appearances rather than 125+ innings. I wonder if Over, too, would be better in the pen. That is what spring training is all about.

Nut it is also a process. Getting up and throwing x-amount of pitches during a game to come into the game. Knowing if you have the right stuff to hold a lead with men on base. Can you pitch the dreaded 10th with the phantom runner at 2nd. 

I miss Jax. It seemed it would have a horrible outing, and then four gems. I was amazed at the workhorse arm of Varland, hoping he would deveoop into the 2-3 inning guy, but he actually has become a dynamite setup guy on the cusp of closing.

[bunsen82]

The Varland situation is 2 fold.  

@Trov, believes there is more going on behind the scene.  I do think that is possible.   However more than that,  I think trading him was based on 2 specific reasons.   They believe the trade was giving more than what they valued Varland for or see him as.   I would have loved to see Varland continue to be giving the opportunity to become a backend bullpen arm. Even still,  other than being a rubber arm for Toronto especially in the playoffs which has some value, he had a 4.94 ERA for Toronto and a 0 WAR.  There is a very real possibility they don't view him as a back end arm, but more of a middle relief.  So if you are able to then trade him for a player who has better stuff and could either be a starter or a backend reliever,  that is a valuable trade.  They also received a player who potentially could be a starting outfield.  So the value was very good. 

I continue to stand by the bigger issue Varland and Stewart were traded,  was to lose more games. They ended up with better lottery odds,  and most likely a better draft pick - now revealed to be the #3 draft pick in what should be a very good draft. 

I think you can build a bullpen, I think it takes time and can be painful, or you need to spend some money and/or prospects to trade for players.   

I think many viewed Varland as more of Minnesota values and a smalltown kid that made it,  so his public goodwill was more valuable than potentially the future value he brought to the team.    

[IndianaTwin]

AAA salary as a starter = $45K-$90K if on the 40-man, plus $31.50 per diem (in 2025) while on the road.

MLB salary as a reliever = $780k, plus $117.50 per diem (less if a meal is provided) while on the road.

 

I don't think a move to the bullpen is an overly difficult sale if it presents a nearly guaranteed path to the majors.

[Jim H]

47 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

No, but if the team is willing to do it with three or four such starters in one year instead of over four years, you might find that two or three of them are ready to thrive in 2027.

And they have way more than three or four such starters they could do this with.

While I agree with this statement, it doesn't line up very well with their stated goal of being competitive in 2026. Most relievers are failed starters.  Occasionally you see a Jesse Crain or Michael Tonkin who were basically relievers all or most of their minor league careers. Generally, though pitchers with major league promise are kept as starters until they fail as starters or they are forced into reliever roles through injury or it becomes apparent that relief is the only real path to a major league career.

While pitching is pitching, starting and relieving put different strains on an arm  and often require different approaches for most pitchers to be successful. I expect that it will be very difficult to successfully transition every relief candidate immediately to his new role. Or even to figure out what his role in the bullpen should be or even if he should be in a major league bullpen at all.

It took about 5 years for last year's bullpen to come together. To hope they can build a good bullpen in a single seems kind of optimistic.

 

[Dman]

1 hour ago, thelanges5 said:

Tom Pohlad recently reminded us that Rome wasn’t built in a day. Neither will this bullpen.
The previous one was pretty good but Durán Jax Varland Sands weren’t all flipped to the BP in one offseason. 

I tend to agree with you. It took Sands a while to work his way in.  Other young arms didn't make it, thinking Winder and Henriquez as a couple examples.  There's no guarantee the arms they have will make the jump and certainly not instantly.  So there could be some pain as they put this pen back together with young arms.  

The payoff if they can get two or three young arms established would be huge though as they would have pre-arb arms with options to keep a cost controlled pen.  After that they could go back to slowly  working in more young arms in later years.

There is a lot of up in the air stuff for this year.  The starting pitching is about the only set thing. Hopefully these young players develop quickly.

[Brandon]

I wonder how Varland could handle the closer role.  Do the Twins have confidence in that?  Do the Twins believe in Rojas more?  I do think there is a big draw in having Minnesotans on the roster for drawing more fans....I think losing a Minnesotan off the roster vs losing a reliever was the bigger negative of the trade.

 

 

[mickster]

7 minutes ago, Brandon said:

I wonder how Varland could handle the closer role.  Do the Twins have confidence in that?  Do the Twins believe in Rojas more?  I do think there is a big draw in having Minnesotans on the roster for drawing more fans....I think losing a Minnesotan off the roster vs losing a reliever was the bigger negative of the trade.

 

 

not pitcher, but Wallner is a Minnesotan on the roster

 

[Over The Hill Again]

1 hour ago, bunsen82 said:

I think many viewed Varland as more of Minnesota values and a smalltown kid that made it,  so his public goodwill was more valuable than potentially the future value he brought to the team.    

Count me with those who were blindsided by the Varland trade. It’s likely that I can’t be completely objective given I was born and raised in the east suburbs of St. Paul. But if all things were equal (an argument) wouldn’t you do something, anything, to build good will with your local fan base. Even if we view this as a Proof of Concept, where the organization can reliably churn out players like this, why not keep what appears to be a stable asset? I don’t profess to be all that driven by the economics, I just love the game as a fan. So much has been done by this organization to alienate people like me over the past few years. Here’s to a successful rebuild that I might see in my lifetime. 

[Brandon]

23 minutes ago, mickster said:

not pitcher, but Wallner is a Minnesotan on the roster

 

Right and having him, Varland and Theilbar had to be pretty valuable from a attendance standpoint is all I'm saying.  Local boys will bring in more locals to the games 

 

[mikelink45]

As usual all we can do is wait and see.  Since we have now cornered the market in no-hit utility players we can start working on bad pitch RP.

[Linus]

I actually wanted to add last off season by trading from our farm to obtain an impact bat or two. With better offense I thought they could be a really good club thru 27. 

Alas they didn’t but I get the deadline strategy. They believe they can develop these pieces so why not cash them in and add back to the farm. I understand the Varland trade - he’s a solid reliever but if you can get a starter and a bat for him you do that every time. What doesn’t make sense to me is to make these moves and then say you are going to try and contend in 26. I do believe they will rebuild the bullpen but I don’t think they can do it in one year. 

[arby58]

2 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Tom Pohlad recently reminded us that Rome wasn’t built in a day. Neither will this bullpen.
The previous one was pretty good but Durán Jax Varland Sands weren’t all flipped to the BP in one offseason. 

Only Varland was a starting pitcher at the MLB level for more than one year. Duran never started a regular season game for the Twins. Sands didn''t start a regular season game after his (brief) first year with the Twins. Jax was only a regular starting pitcher his first year with the Twins. 

[Cris E]

I think the team knows they can turn the knob and they'll get some relievers to fall out, so Festa and Preippe and Rojas and Adams and Ohl are going to get a chance to make the jump.

But I think they know it isn't automatic.  Adams and Ohl were developed using that four day appearance cycle and it only sort of worked out at the MLB level.  They did not cut loose and suddenly start throwing 99mph, they did not drop all their weaker secondary pitches, and they were not great in their debuts. To be fair most pitchers are not, and that's going to be part of any youngster's journey. They will probably have some trouble because it's new and difficult, not because of their role. (See Winder, Balazovic, et al.) 

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, Over The Hill Again said:

But if all things were equal (an argument) wouldn’t you do something, anything, to build good will with your local fan base.

I think people are really overreacting to how much fans care to watch a local relief pitcher for the Twins. 

Varland was on the team last year and we saw attendance plummet well before the trade deadline sell off. 

[TheLeviathan]

Hypothetically turning a failed starter into a valuable reliever and then into a valuable young starter is a good path for a FO.  So what becomes of Rojas is a major point of uncertainty in deciding this proof of concept.

I'd also suggest it'd be better to get 3-4 years of good use of them before you flip them in this concept.

[theBOMisthebomb]

I will never support the Louis Varland trade, regardless of any future results or if the Twins "win" the trade.

I will never support or speak positively of this trade. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

9 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

As the article states, the flip switch doesn't always turn on right away. So why waste years developing a guy only to ship him out once he becomes a contributor, only for more projects in return?  How does a team sustain success that way?

This team will not score many runs, and they like to pull their young starters after five innings. A good bullpen is a necessity for the Twins to compete. They took a strength and turned it into a giant question mark.

And trading away a hometown guy is just bad P.R. I really don't know what the hell they were thinking with this trade.

To add, Varland has pitched 100 innings as a reliever. It took more than 40 of those innings to become good. A reliever usually doesn’t throw much more than 60 innings in a season.

they won’t hit on 4 out of 4 starter conversions, some will fail entirely.

2/3 of the season will be spent blowing leads out of the pen…

hardly any of the starter conversions will have any value at all in 2026, it’s all to be traded away in 2027.

 

[dxpavelka]

19 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Tom Pohlad recently reminded us that Rome wasn’t built in a day. Neither will this bullpen.
The previous one was pretty good but Durán Jax Varland Sands weren’t all flipped to the BP in one offseason. 

True.  But bullpens CAN be built fairly quickly.  In fact, most teams rebuild at least half of their bullpen every off-season.  

[dxpavelka]

Keep remembering that the return from the Varland trade is a 23 year old left handed pitcher who is currently ranked as our 5th best prospect and projected to arrive in the big leagues in 2026.  Hell, the fact that he's left handed probably makes the trade a win.

[JD-TWINS]

20 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

The Varland situation is 2 fold.  

@Trov, believes there is more going on behind the scene.  I do think that is possible.   However more than that,  I think trading him was based on 2 specific reasons.   They believe the trade was giving more than what they valued Varland for or see him as.   I would have loved to see Varland continue to be giving the opportunity to become a backend bullpen arm. Even still,  other than being a rubber arm for Toronto especially in the playoffs which has some value, he had a 4.94 ERA for Toronto and a 0 WAR.  There is a very real possibility they don't view him as a back end arm, but more of a middle relief.  So if you are able to then trade him for a player who has better stuff and could either be a starter or a backend reliever,  that is a valuable trade.  They also received a player who potentially could be a starting outfield.  So the value was very good. 

I continue to stand by the bigger issue Varland and Stewart were traded,  was to lose more games. They ended up with better lottery odds,  and most likely a better draft pick - now revealed to be the #3 draft pick in what should be a very good draft. 

I think you can build a bullpen, I think it takes time and can be painful, or you need to spend some money and/or prospects to trade for players.   

I think many viewed Varland as more of Minnesota values and a smalltown kid that made it,  so his public goodwill was more valuable than potentially the future value he brought to the team.    

As I’ve said here a handful of times, if Varland was from Kenosha, the value of Rojas’ upside and Varland’s ceiling would be viewed much more rationally.

Stewart was traded as a flier for Outman just to see if change of scenery would/could propel Outman back to where he once was and to let an oft injured guy bring Team longer term value via trade. He was hurt within 10-20 days of being with LA and didn’t pitch again………..I don’t see either of these guys being traded to help tank to improve draft position.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

True.  But bullpens CAN be built fairly quickly.  In fact, most teams rebuild at least half of their bullpen every off-season.  

Agreed. If the rebuild blocks are named Adams and Ohl v. Festa & Prielipp the variance in time could be greatly extended.

With Orze - Sands - Topa - Funderburk, half of the initial PEN is in place.

I see comments here about spending around $10M plus/minus on FA candidates for PEN. How about signing Zack Littell ($11M/yr for 2 years) as the solid #5 starter (186 innings in ‘25 & 3.81 ERA). He’s a more proven guy and better than SWR & a definite uptick from Bradley. This allows 3-5 young guys to move to relief right now with confidence on having rotation covered.

Matthews/Bradley to Closer role ………. Festa & Prielipp to set-up roles …….. Adams - Klein - Lewis whoever for last PEN spot. Littell is evidence of a guy working from the PEN in varying roles to ultimately evolve as a starter later in his career.

The other alternative that Littell could bring is the potential flexibility to trade one of the two guys at the Top of the rotation for a proven bat……not a prospect. Littell could ultimately be a consistent bridge to Abel/Rojas/Morris.

[old nurse]

20 hours ago, Rosterman said:

I still remember Frankie Rodriguez throwing a hissy fit back in 1997 when the Twins wanted him to try being a reliever. All about the money. But, again, you don't make money if you can't pitch in the majors.

Duran became a lights out stopper, partly because the Twins feared stretching him out to be a starter. He will still thrive once he hits free agency. Jax, like such guys as Guarado, Hawkins, Perkins, were all failed starting pitchers who found life in the bullpen.

I didn't expect the Twins to trade Duran, Jax AND Varland. I was hoping that one of the two of Jax or Varland would be the stopper of the future.

Yes, the Twins currently sit at 14 rotation arms, only 12 if Ryan or Lopez relocate. There are at least four pitchers also in the mix who would step into a probable rotation mid-2027. So, a couple will need to be bullpen arms if they wish to see major league action. I would say none of the 10 listed above are first class tradebait for now. At best, there might be interest in Woods Richardson.

Adams, Ohl are surefire bullpen arms. Prielipp, too. I would do the Duran appraoch, try to get 40-50 appearances rather than 125+ innings. I wonder if Over, too, would be better in the pen. That is what spring training is all about.

Nut it is also a process. Getting up and throwing x-amount of pitches during a game to come into the game. Knowing if you have the right stuff to hold a lead with men on base. Can you pitch the dreaded 10th with the phantom runner at 2nd. 

I miss Jax. It seemed it would have a horrible outing, and then four gems. I was amazed at the workhorse arm of Varland, hoping he would deveoop into the 2-3 inning guy, but he actually has become a dynamite setup guy on the cusp of closing.

Frankie and. Larry were the same age. One made almost 50 million, one 2 million.   If a player is good at something they will make enough money. The good prospect ranking probably gave Frankie additional chances