The Opportunity (and Cost) of a Wide-Open Bullpen

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins made big news in the past week by signing free agent Josh Bell, and then formally announcing a drastic shakeup to the franchise's ownership structure. Outside of that, however, it's been fairly quiet on the offseason front. Most notably, the club has yet to take serious action on its most clear and pressing need: the bullpen.

Cole Sands, coming off a disappointing season, is accompanied by Justin Topa as the only veteran relievers in the mix. Kody Funderburk seems likely to return. Outside of that, the Twins entered this winter with essentially an open slate. 

They acquired Eric Orze, coming off a solid age-27 rookie season with the Rays, in a low-wattage trade. He's lined up for a spot. More recently, Minnesota brought in two right-handers with major-league experience on minor-league deals: Grant Hartwig and Dan Altavilla. 

It's easy to see why fringy free agents like these would be drawn here. Aside from the four aforementioned names — who are all shaky in their own ways — there's nothing standing in the way of major-league bullpen spots other than the likes of Travis Adams, Pierson Ohl, John Klein, Marco Raya and Connor Prielipp. I'm sure the Twins are planning on turning to all of those guys at some point, but there's no need to feel compelled to rush any of them. In many cases, these young pitchers could stand to get some true relief experience in the minors after largely working in starting or hybrid roles in the past.

Yeah, the Twins will probably add a more established reliever or two via signing or trade, but I doubt they'll go much beyond that in terms of MLB contracts. Investing heavily in the bullpen would clash with the philosophies this front office has held strong to, and also, incoming ownership figurehead Tom Pohlad made clear that big spending is not in the cards. Plus most of the top free-agent relievers are off the market already. Flexibility is going to be the point.

I don't want to paint it as a good thing that the Twins are so short on dependable, proven major-league relievers. It's not. But there are some advantages in creating this stage of opportunity. We've seen plenty of instances where the Twins had an exceptional relief pitcher in hand — Jeff Hoffman, Yennier Cano, Ronny Henriquez — only to let him slip away because they couldn't afford the patience to stick with him through struggles, or to give him innings ahead of more accomplished arms. 

That's not going to be much of an impediment in 2026. The Twins will take an experimental approach and hope it yields success stories that actually take root here instead of elsewhere. But again, this comes with major downsides from a perspective of short-term competitiveness. While the trial-by-fire formula can eventually lead to a high-quality, cost-efficient relief corps, it is pollyannaish to believe that's going to take hold immediately. 

For every Hoffman, Cano and Henriquez, there are many more borderline pitchers with hints of upside who flop and never figure it out. The Twins had to go through many misfires to land on the deep, methodically developed bullpen that they unloaded at last year's deadline. On their way to figuring out what works in a completely reinvented unit, we're going to have to endure some pain.

Any baseball fan knows how much a terrible bullpen can sabotage the fortunes of an otherwise capable team. That's the big paradox facing the Twins, and as Tom Pohlad framed it more broadly, "the needle we're trying to thread this year."

I have no expectation that the Twins will be terribly ambitious in adding to their bullpen over the remainder of the offseason, but I'm eager to see how creative they can get. One way or another, it should be an adventure.

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[Whitey333]

Yes but will it still bean adventure if no one is watching?

[tony&rodney]

The Twins traded Duran, Jax, Varland, and Stewart last July. It would be quite unexpected for the Twins to add anyone to the bullpen besides a couple of late free agent relievers for a combined $5M given those trades.

Spring Training will be a free-for-all for those eight spots in the pen. Sands, Topa, and Funderburk had some good days and some struggles. Orze was ok for Tampa Bay. Those four could well fill the bottom four spots. It is anyone's  guess who fills out the top four slots. Hopefully it is the best four arms available. Avoiding injuries will be critical  to the pitchers who might fit for the bullpen. My guess today is that David Festa and Zebby Matthews are two of the guys and two of Connor Prielipp, Marco Raya, and John Klein fill the other two spots. Andrew Morris may be an option as well. The favorites to earn a chair may be Pierson Ohl and Travis Adams. I'm expecting Mick Abel to be the #6 starting pitcher behind Taj Bradley and Simeon Woods Richardson, who should hold down the back of the starting rotation.

While the bullpen looks shaky, the major concern for the Twins continues to be weakness of the position players. Based on the current roster the Twins could have as many as five DH's in the lineup. The bullpen is not a major problem. Before people can push the narrative of a weak bullpen it is necessary to put gloves in the field who turn  ground balls and fly balls  into outs. 

[Coach Wheels]

26 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins traded Duran, Jax, Varland, and Stewart last July. It would be quite unexpected for the Twins to add anyone to the bullpen besides a couple of late free agent relievers for a combined $5M given those trades.

Spring Training will be a free-for-all for those eight spots in the pen. Sands, Topa, and Funderburk had some good days and some struggles. Orze was ok for Tampa Bay. Those four could well fill the bottom four spots. It is anyone's  guess who fills out the top four slots. Hopefully it is the best four arms available. Avoiding injuries will be critical  to the pitchers who might fit for the bullpen. My guess today is that David Festa and Zebby Matthews are two of the guys and two of Connor Prielipp, Marco Raya, and John Klein fill the other two spots. Andrew Morris may be an option as well. The favorites to earn a chair may be Pierson Ohl and Travis Adams. I'm expecting Mick Abel to be the #6 starting pitcher behind Taj Bradley and Simeon Woods Richardson, who should hold down the back of the starting rotation.

While the bullpen looks shaky, the major concern for the Twins continues to be weakness of the position players. Based on the current roster the Twins could have as many as five DH's in the lineup. The bullpen is not a major problem. Before people can push the narrative of a weak bullpen it is necessary to put gloves in the field who turn  ground balls and fly balls  into outs. 

I'm hopeful that Abel earns a top 5 rotation spot. SWR doesn't move the needle for me as a starting pitcher.

[thelanges5]

August and September 2025 are littered with head lines like this:

“Twins depleted bullpen predictably falters in loss to Tigers”

”Twins bullpen melts down again as lack of depth hurts in extra-innings loss to Guardians”

They should be adding to the bullpen but seem to think they can just rebuild in one off-season. We have some nice young arms, but it would be a good idea to supplement that with at least a couple guys with MLB experience.

 

[DJL44]

All the trades of relief pitchers last season should teach them that relievers are easy to trade at the deadline. Free agent relievers are not just help for this season, they’re an opportunity to participate at the trade deadline.

[arby58]

Duran, Jax, and Varland are just the latest in a long line of Twins relief pitchers that were converted starting pitchers. Some of their stellar predecessors were Eddie Guardado, Rick Aguillera, Glen Perkins, Latroy Hawkins, and Joe Nathan.  About the only decent 'relief pitcher only' pitchers they've developed in recent years were Ryan Pressly and Taylor Rodgers. They've got plenty of promising arms in the minors. My bet is on at least two of Raya, Festa, and Prielipp playing important roles in the bullpen.

[JD-TWINS]

46 minutes ago, Coach Wheels said:

I'm hopeful that Abel earns a top 5 rotation spot. SWR doesn't move the needle for me as a starting pitcher.

I wish Abel all the best!!

SWR has started 51 games over past 2 years and is 12-9 with a 4.10 ERA. He’s 24 years old. He’s a solid #4-5 starter for 25 Teams in Baseball, IMO.

I think Festa’s arm may take some time to get back to usable for starter………so, with time early in the year, I see him working back to full strength and being the #7 starter behind Abel coming out of Spring Training.

Matthews seems to me to be the obvious choice for back end of PEN. 4 guys listed above along with a couple FA’s …… Prielipp - Adams - Klein - Morris all seem to have enough stuff to be effective for an inning at a time…….it’s not a given but I don’t think it’s a bad situation with these options. FA’s have to be contributors.

[sweetmusicviola16]

This is a horribly constructed team. Yes we are now behind the CWS. I don't mind being hopeful and positive but reality is still reality. I'm glad MN/TC has a team. That's the best I can say right now. 

[AceWrigley]

21 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Duran, Jax, and Varland are just the latest in a long line of Twins relief pitchers that were converted starting pitchers. Some of their stellar predecessors were Eddie Guardado, Rick Aguillera, Glen Perkins, Latroy Hawkins, and Joe Nathan.  About the only decent 'relief pitcher only' pitchers they've developed in recent years were Ryan Pressly and Taylor Rodgers. They've got plenty of promising arms in the minors. My bet is on at least two of Raya, Festa, and Prielipp playing important roles in the bullpen.

And Taylor Rogers was a starter in the minors right up to where the Twins put him in their bullpen.

[JD-TWINS]

Re: ‘25 Trade Deadline (fire sale)

Coulombe was going to be a FA and Team had punted on the season.

Stewart was hurt more than healthy - hurt immediately with Dodgers - didn’t create some huge void in Twin’s PEN.

Duran - tough shoes to fill!! As others have pointed out, he washed out as a starter due to arm issues and developed into an elite closer…..can get other guys in system headed in that direction (Prielipp - Raya - Matthews - maybe Festa?) ………look at Ronny Henriquez after settling in with Marlins as another example.

Varland, drafted in low round and originally had one pitch ……….washed out as a starter with Twins after numerous opportunities. Then, after 3-4 months in ‘25 he had elevated to an effective and durable guy in the PEN. They got a lefty, more highly touted guy in Rojas that projects as a starter in ‘27. Roden was a flier throw in and not really worth fretting over. IMO, if Louie was from Stevens Point instead of Twin Cities, fans would have a much more open mind on this trade. Tough to see Louie go!

Jax had/has Great Stuff. He seemed unsatisfied in ‘25 and more uneasy on the mound than usual. He had pitch mix issues and seemed uneasy between the ears. Couple  games there were blown holds due to inept fielding on his part…….a tough year for him at north of 4.00 ERA. Bradley is younger with more control and projects to be 5th starter. If Bradley isn’t successful it doesn’t mean he’s a wash! All 3 of Duran - Jax - Varland were failed starters. Bradley has good value, IMO.

I know there are a lot of questions but not all gloom & doom. I think LaTroy Hawkins will be a big asset with guy’s regimen and approach on the mound. Keeping guys loose but ready. He’s been in & seen every bullpen role over looong career.

[Mahoning]

It looks like the Twins continue with their "plan" of the last few years: Hope everyone has a surprisingly good season.

[TopGunn#22]

I think the raw "stuff" Abel has is superior to SWR.  I feel the same when comparing SWR to Matthews and Bradley.  But in the last month or so of the season, SWR seemed to turn a corner.  My point in all this is that I would like to see Ober traded and open the door for the young guys.

We may or may not compete this coming season.  While I believe our chances to compete are linked to Buxton, Lopez and Ryan remaining Twins, even having a decent season out of Ober restricts the potential development of Bradley, Matthews, Abel and SWR.  A trade of Ober for Jordan Lawler (D-Backs) or Colby Mayo (Orioles) or some similar type of position player opens up the rotation for these young guys to develop.  

For all the talk and speculation about Festa being in the bullpen I'm really surprised he wasn't mentioned in the article. 

Nick, he's constantly commented on as potentially being a key piece of the Twins BP in 2026.  How could you not even mention him? 

Is there some kind of disconnect with "Twins Insiders" on Twins Daily and the regular guys who comment here on TD? 

 We speculate Festa will start off in a high leverage role and maybe even ascend to the Closer spot.  Are we missing something?  Are we wrong in speculating that Festa could be a big part of the Twins BP in 2026?

I still think they need to bring in a vet Closer, at least in the beginning of the season, but all of the best options are drying up.  Maybe a one year, prove it deal for Kirby Yates?  The Dodgers signed Edwin Diaz to a BIG contract.  I doubt they are looking to bring Yates back.  

All of the names mentioned (Raya, Klein, Adams, Morris, even Prielipp) are in play.  But ONE vet with Closing experience at least thru the month of June would make me feel better about the BP top to bottom.  

 

[rdehring]

Another good article, Nick.  Thanks.  Always enjoy reading what you post, even when it leaves me feeling rather sad for what's ahead for the Twins.

Seeing you alluded to the ownership changes, have a question.  When reading about Hicks have seen indications that he is part of a group of local investors, or at least more than one.  When reading about Leopold it appears he is separate from Hicks.  Are there other Minnesota investors who have not been named?  If so, any idea who?

[edit: saw yesterday there is a group led by Hicks.  The group includes the owner's of the Fort Myers Mighty Muscles, along with others.  It also said none were ex-players]

[LA Vikes Fan]

10 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I think the raw "stuff" Abel has is superior to SWR.  I feel the same when comparing SWR to Matthews and Bradley.  But in the last month or so of the season, SWR seemed to turn a corner.  My point in all this is that I would like to see Ober traded and open the door for the young guys.

We may or may not compete this coming season.  While I believe our chances to compete are linked to Buxton, Lopez and Ryan remaining Twins, even having a decent season out of Ober restricts the potential development of Bradley, Matthews, Abel and SWR.  A trade of Ober for Jordan Lawler (D-Backs) or Colby Mayo (Orioles) or some similar type of position player opens up the rotation for these young guys to develop.  

For all the talk and speculation about Festa being in the bullpen I'm really surprised he wasn't mentioned in the article. 

Nick, he's constantly commented on as potentially being a key piece of the Twins BP in 2026.  How could you not even mention him? 

Is there some kind of disconnect with "Twins Insiders" on Twins Daily and the regular guys who comment here on TD? 

 We speculate Festa will start off in a high leverage role and maybe even ascend to the Closer spot.  Are we missing something?  Are we wrong in speculating that Festa could be a big part of the Twins BP in 2026?

I still think they need to bring in a vet Closer, at least in the beginning of the season, but all of the best options are drying up.  Maybe a one year, prove it deal for Kirby Yates?  The Dodgers signed Edwin Diaz to a BIG contract.  I doubt they are looking to bring Yates back.  

All of the names mentioned (Raya, Klein, Adams, Morris, even Prielipp) are in play.  But ONE vet with Closing experience at least thru the month of June would make me feel better about the BP top to bottom.  

 

I think you’re right about Festa. He is the most logical candidate for the bullpen. High velocity, lots of SOs, struggles second time through, arm trouble. I would start him out in a high leverage role to see if he can handle it. He could be the closer of the future. I would put Prielipp in there as well. Both have arm issues that make a starter role unlikely long term. That still leaves Matthews, Abel, Morris, and Rojas to start in AAA. Put Klein and Raya in the AAA bullpen as next guys up so they can transition there. 

[mikelink45]

Quote

made big news in the past week by signing free agent Josh Bell,

You lost me when you started with this.  Big News?  What a bench mark.  Yes, we have been a greenhouse for nurturing relief pitchers for other teams.  But at least we have the bottom of the RP order in place and will not spend on anyone else.  Impatience?  We dropped Thielbar after one bad year and the Cubs are grateful. 

I have no idea which pitchers are best placed in rotation and bullpen.  But I think we all know that BPs are the key to success in this evolving game.  

This article on MLB.com was in 2017, the beginning of the trend that is in place. https://www.mlb.com/news/bullpen-use-has-changed-greatly-over-time-c216982016

He listed five trends

1.  The amount of relief appearances continues to climb
2. Long relievers are an endangered species
3. Multi-inning appearances are a rarity
4.  Three is now the preferred number of out
5. Closers in particular have become pigeon-holed

check out this article on Bullpen evolution:

Quote

https://sabr.org/journal/article/the-specialized-bullpen-history-analysis-and-strategic-models-for-success/

 

[thelanges5]

SWR is out of options so he’ll be in the rotation unless he gets hurt or gets traded.

[LastOnePicked]

"While the trial-by-fire formula can eventually lead to a high-quality, cost-efficient relief corps, it is pollyannaish to believe that's going to take hold immediately."

Perhaps you haven't heard: the Twins are not rebuilding. They see themselves as contenders. So it better take hold immediately, because we are letting premium trade value rot away on the vine.

[TNtwins85]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins traded Duran, Jax, Varland, and Stewart last July. It would be quite unexpected for the Twins to add anyone to the bullpen besides a couple of late free agent relievers for a combined $5M given those trades.

Spring Training will be a free-for-all for those eight spots in the pen. Sands, Topa, and Funderburk had some good days and some struggles. Orze was ok for Tampa Bay. Those four could well fill the bottom four spots. It is anyone's  guess who fills out the top four slots. Hopefully it is the best four arms available. Avoiding injuries will be critical  to the pitchers who might fit for the bullpen. My guess today is that David Festa and Zebby Matthews are two of the guys and two of Connor Prielipp, Marco Raya, and John Klein fill the other two spots. Andrew Morris may be an option as well. The favorites to earn a chair may be Pierson Ohl and Travis Adams. I'm expecting Mick Abel to be the #6 starting pitcher behind Taj Bradley and Simeon Woods Richardson, who should hold down the back of the starting rotation.

While the bullpen looks shaky, the major concern for the Twins continues to be weakness of the position players. Based on the current roster the Twins could have as many as five DH's in the lineup. The bullpen is not a major problem. Before people can push the narrative of a weak bullpen it is necessary to put gloves in the field who turn  ground balls and fly balls  into outs. 

We watched a shaky bullpen the last few years give up leads. Duran=injured and failed SP. Jax=failed SP. Stewart=injured and failed SP. Varland =failed SP. Coulombe=aging cheap FA to be. They flipped all these supposed studs who continually let them down for future value. Some of those guys may be recycled back to the BP. The point is they do it again as they’ve done before. I have no problem with that but the underlying issue was the offense. You could sign the 5 best relievers on the market but if they’re expected to continually protect 1 run leads they wear down. The bullpen will round out. They need some hitters! Internal and external. I don’t worry about the BP. I worry about the D and hitting.

[D.C Twins]

"Any baseball fan knows how much a terrible bullpen can sabotage the fortunes of an otherwise capable team."

Well, the good news for the inevitable 'terrible bullpen' this year is that the rest of the Twins team will not qualify as as 'capable team' to sabotage! 

[Elliot]

I hadn’t realized how well Henrique’s had done after leaving MN. Good for him. That’s the reason you sort thru other teams scrap heaps. 

[AceWrigley]

1 hour ago, rdehring said:

Another good article, Nick.  Thanks.  Always enjoy reading what your post, even when it leaves me feeling rather sad for what's ahead for the Twins.

Seeing you alluded to the ownership changes, have a question.  When reading about Hicks have seen indications that he is part of a group of local investors, or at least more than one.  When reading about Leopold it appears he is separate from Hicks.  Are there other Minnesota investors who have not been named?  If so, any idea who?

Glick Family investments, a New York based family managing their wealth acquired mostly through diamonds and real estate investments I believe.

[Riverbrian]

My curiosity is genuine. 

I'm not sure how they will be competitive without (at least) the bare minimum effort at a slightly more serious attempt at building the pen.

It doesn't seem like one can be done without the other. 

Off season isn't over yet. I'll wait and see. 

[arby58]

2 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

My thought exactly.  Yes, we did it before with Duran, Jax, etc., but it did NOT happen overnight.  

Actually, Duran was good right out of the gate. His first season was 2.0 WAR, 1.86 ERA, 0.975 WHIP, and 89 Ks in just under 67 innings. Nearly as good the next year as well. I'd take those stats for any first year relief pitcher every time.

Jax' first year as a relief pitcher was also pretty good. He had a 1.0 WAR, 3.36 ERA, 1.051 WHIP, and 78 Ks in just over 72 innings.

[rdehring]

3 hours ago, AceWrigley said:

Glick Family investments, a New York based family managing their wealth acquired mostly through diamonds and real estate investments I believe.

Yes, aware of the Glick family.  My question was related to comments in the Strib article that appeared to indicate that Hicks was investing as one of more than one Minnesotan, not including Leopold.

[rhal]

They need to recognize defense is a real problem with this group. Up the middle Buxton is the only capable fielder.  They won’t be competitive until they can catch and throw the ball no matter what their pitching staff does. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

The good news, if there is any, is that there are plenty of guys who can ride the St. Paul express back and forth between AAA and MLB.  That means that they will probably have in essence a 10 or 11 man bullpen, rather than an 8 man bullpen.  Not that all of those guys will be successful, but it does create a backup plan to the backup plan.  

Would a veteran reliever with closing experience be nice?  Sure.  You bet.  But I don't think it's a disaster at all without one. Duran, Nathan, Guardado were all failed starters who we counted on to become shut down relievers, and they did it -- without any closing experience.  I recall some guy named Hawkins also did something like that.  He might be useful this year.  

[Danchat]

12 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Would a veteran reliever with closing experience be nice?  Sure.  You bet.  But I don't think it's a disaster at all without one.

I agree, but heading into the year with Sands, Topa, and Funderburk by far the best relievers on your roster is a disaster waiting to happen. 

[Blyleven2011]

Yes the adventures will continue with the twins , but I wish the adventure to play baseball is not the boring baseball we have seen in 2021-22 or 2024-25 ...

I'd like to see the young arms from AAA get there debuts in the bullpen and show that they are ready , but to start the season with some quality veteran FA signings or trades for the bullpen and our the young arm starters that there is no spot in the rotation have a crack at the bullpen or depth in AAA  ...

 

Someone mentioned Kirby Yates,  he's been good when healthy and worth the risks ...

[RaoulDuke]

Festa/ Raya/ Prielepp are all very intriguing arms that could possibly be dominate relievers in the Duran/ Jax/ Rogers mold.

Some of the current Starter depth is getting converted to the bullpen.