In Choosing Derek Shelton, Twins Signal a Rebuild is Likely

[Eric Blonigen]

Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Heading into the offseason, the Twins front office faced a daunting task. They had to endeavor to convince a beleaguered fanbase that the team intends to compete in 2026. By hiring Derek Shelton, they sent a different sort of message entirely. It sure feels like they're planning on a rebuild, but don’t want to say the words. Instead, they suggest that they actually plan on more of the same. More on that in a minute.

First, I want to be clear about something. Old friend Derek Shelton is qualified for this role. He’s a baseball lifer. He’s been a well-thought-of hitting coach for the Guardians and the Rays, two well-thought-of organizations. This background as a hitting coach has the potential to help some of the young hitters (who have infamously not hit, as a collective) improve. Additionally, he was a quality control coach for the Blue Jays, and then became bench coach for the Twins under both Paul Molitor and Rocco Baldelli.

Most recently, he was hired into the most futile of roles: manager of the ne’er-do-well (and not in a cool way) Pittsburgh Pirates. Surprising exactly nobody, his five-plus seasons at the helm saw results that ranged from poor to downright brutal, and he was fired in May after losing at least 86 games each year of his tenure, except the ones in which he managed many fewer games than that. The results are much less a reflection of Shelton’s competence, though, and much more a sign that the entire Pirates organization has been mired in a total system failure for about three decades.

So if he’s qualified, why does this move feel like a white flag of surrender? Simply put, it’s the situation Shelton tolerated in Pittsburgh, and the similarities to the one he will immediately be hampered by in his role with the Twins. Hiring Shelton suggests that the only change is the name and the face, not the strategy or execution. Let’s look at this through the lens of ownership and the front office.

The Ownership Situation
During Shelton’s six seasons in Pittsburgh, the team payroll was never higher than 26th in the majors, and it was dead last twice. Over his tenure, the Pirates’ payroll never rose higher than $87 million, per FanGraphs. Shelton has worked for an owner who cries poor, faces “sell the team” chants from fans, and says disingenuous, tone-deaf, and fundamentally incorrect things like: “I think that I've done everything that I can to provide the tools and resources to the team. There is a point where it becomes execution. That's why you play the season. That's why you play the games. We talk about winning on the margins…I know that. [GM Ben Cherington] knows that. Shelty definitely knows that.”

Does that sound familiar? It should. To put this another way, Shelton is used to faulty, incomplete rosters limited by insufficient payroll. He’s wrapped in the (in)security blanket of not being handed reinforcements, despite clear needs. He’s acclimated to the quiet feeling of despondence that goes along with doing your job with one hand tied behind your back. He’s familiar with ownership that’s more concerned with profit margins and operating cash flow than fielding a winning team. And, he’s no stranger to needing to pretend to agree with the direction of a bad team.

The situation he will inherit in Minnesota? More of the same. The Twins are unlikely to raise payroll for 2026; they seem more likely to reduce it. If they go into the season with a $100 million payroll, Shelton could look at even that low number as a blessing. In fact, he could be one of the only managerial candidates who would look at the Minnesota Twins Way, and ownership in general, and see an upgrade compared to what he was used to.

The Front Office’s Priorities
During his tenure, Rocco Baldelli took a lot of flak from fans on social media for not focusing on fundamentals; having a quick hook with his pitching staff; having teams that don’t run much; and being overly focused on analytics. If you listen to Pirates fans, they levy the same criticisms against Shelton. Why are Shelton and Baldelli both in on all those things? Because those focal points are fairly institutionally ingrained across baseball. They largely make sense, and when executed upon, they lead to winning baseball more often than not.

Of course, execution is key, and having a complete, deep roster is essential to winning. Derek Falvey seems to believe he’s capable of executing, despite little evidence that bears that belief out. In hiring Shelton, Falvey went with a familiar face, one with whom he has experience communicating—one similar to Baldelli, who understands the organizational norms. Basically, he’s a plug-and-play manager who can pick up right where Baldelli left off. This makes sense for Falvey, in his dual role. The less time he has to spend onboarding a new manager, the more time he can spend figuring out how to sell tickets and how he can fill approximately eight roster spots for a total of $10 million.

Shelton is used to the same constraints he will face with the Twins, and in taking this role, he signals that he is unlikely to push back against either his front office or ownership; will tolerate lengthy stretches of non-competitive baseball; and is willing to put a brave face on a bad situation. By hiring Shelton, with his only managerial experience coming in a nearly identical environment, Falvey seems to be saying the quiet part out loud: things will get worse before they get better.

Rather than go with a candidate who might challenge the status quo—one who might push back against flawed thinking, one who brings an outside voice, or one who demands excellence at all levels—Falvey went with inertia. In this case, the inertia is truly inert. The likeliest outcome, in my opinion, is that the team has to find another new manager for the 2028 season, if they feel they are ready to contend at that point. And if not, one has to imagine it’s time for a new front office, as well.

View full article

[Cory Engelhardt]

This feels too much like a "Jump to conclusions" mat from Office Space.

They may or may not have a certain payroll number going in to 2026. I don't think naming a manager (of which there were others interested) is the sign of anything as far as what payroll will look like. And frankly, whoever they named as manager would have gotten the exact same comments under that article no? That's an issue with the Twins brand and with fans being tired of the Pohlads in general much more than this being a sign of anything.

They need a new catcher to pair with Jeffers. They need probably at minimum 3 new outside bullpen additions (and this can be via trade) and they need a real 1B. 

The TYPES of moves they make this offseason will show what the payroll is more than whoever they were going to name as manager.

[nicksaviking]

Good write up Eric.

I have to say, the article felt like an objective review of Shelton and the Twins situation; that is right up until the last paragraph! I'm sure like the rest of us, the frustration is boiling inside and needed to be let out at the end.

And I'm in complete agreement with those sentiments.

[thelanges5]

What is the roster going to look like? If the Twins have a Pirates-like payroll they’ll continue to have Pirates-like results. 

[Road trip]

Use of the word "rebuild" in the title feels a little too optimistic.  It would imply that Twins ownership intends to build a contender again, long term.

It's possible that rather than attempting to win, they are content to put together a long string of sub-.500 seasons while pocketing revenue sharing money as profits.  According to Bob Nightengale's recent article the Pirates were among the more profitable teams in MLB the past few years, and they haven't had a winning season for a decade.  I don't doubt  that business model could appeal to the Pohlads.  Who better to lead such an effort on the field than Shelton?

[jorgenswest]

Is Shelton a match for a rebuild?

He took over the Pirates and their 4th ranked (Fangraphs) farm system in 2020. They have had a top 10 system in 13 of the last 14 Fangraphs reports. They had 6 top 100 prospects when he took over. The only one of the six that has become an average major league player is Oneil Cruz and his value dropped when moved off of shortstop. Since then through last spring they had 23 different players in the top 100 prospects. Did they develop? Who is left?

Paul Skenes is very good. Oneil Cruz has a career 100 wRC+ and has moved off SS. Catcher Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez are still around both with career OPS under 600. Nick Gonzalez has a career wRC+ of 84. Mitch Keller has a career ERA of 4.51. Braxton Ashcroft and Bubba Chandler looked promising in their 8 and 4 rookie starts last year. Liover Peguero has shuttled back and forth for three years with a 74 wRC+ and is out of options. Those 9 are the good news. They are still around. Konnor Griffin and Temarr Johnson haven’t arrived yet.

The Twins have a good farm system. They have several young players in the early phase of their major league careers or are close to the majors. The Twins need a manager that will help them take the next step. Did they find one?

Maybe. They certainly aren’t going to find a manager with more experience in working with young players and helping them develop into major leaguers. Perhaps there are things he would do differently and has learned from that experience. Let’s hope the Twins are the beneficiaries of that learning.

 

[mluebker]

“Shelton is used to faulty, incomplete rosters limited by insufficient payroll. He’s wrapped in the (in)security blanket of not being handed reinforcements, despite clear needs. He’s acclimated to the quiet feeling of despondence that goes along with doing your job with one hand tied behind your back. He’s familiar with ownership that’s more concerned with profit margins and operating cash flow than fielding a winning team. And, he’s no stranger to needing to pretend to agree with the direction of a bad team.”

So basically, Shelton arrives with his spirit pre-broken, saving the front office the time and effort they’d have to expend doing that to another candidate.

[DJL44]

The biggest problem with this hire is Falvey doubling down on the same process that led to these results in the first place. "Trust the process" that has led to one of the worst teams in baseball.

[USAFChief]

Id say dumping, what...11 players at the deadline, including the top 2/3 of your pen, signaled a rebuild is likely.

To me, hiring Shelton signals Falvey didn’t want any kind of change in the dugout. 

 

[mluebker]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The biggest problem with this hire is Falvey doubling down on the same process that led to these results in the first place.

We all know what to call it when someone keeps doing the same thing over and over, and expecting different results. 

[GNess]

I am not sure yet what to think of this hire, but it feels somewhat like a Rocco redo. 

[Nshore]

I see poor Derek is a bourbon drinker.  It'll be time for him to go when the bottle becomes visible in the dugout during games.

Shelton won't have much control over roster construction.  So the players he gets from the minor league system better be developed to a razor sharp edge.  That puts focus on the performance of the director of minor league operations, which IMO to this point has been rather underwhelming.

[Patzky]

43 minutes ago, mluebker said:

 

So basically, Shelton arrives with his spirit pre-broken, saving the front office the time and effort they’d have to expend doing that to another candidate.

Ouch. That's rough 

[tony&rodney]

The July moves signified a rebuild in my view.

Maybe I'm wrong. We all seem desperately guessing and hoping our team can escape a year long replay of the August-September win, loss record but without the running game; a return to station to station baseball with poor defenders.

[djm24]

Just like any job hire in any occupation, I'm sure there are many reasons why the FO chose Shelton as the most qualified to be the next manager. So  rather than passing any judgment on either the FO or Shelton, let's give the guy a chance to see what he can do with the lowly Twins team. In spite of their successes with other teams, there is no guarantee that the other candidates would do a better job as Twins manager.

[Sjoski]

He’s solid with young players and fits a developmental phase, but his track record (306-440) doesn’t inspire much confidence. Why should we expect anything different than his last 6 years in Pittsburgh? 

It’s a cautious step forward, not a bold one. What else were Twins fans expecting with Falvey in charge?

[ashbury]

30 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The July moves signified a rebuild in my view.

Came here to say this in response to the headline, but I'll amplify that I could sort of see trading either of Duran or Jax, but disposing of both relievers who were under control for an additional two years told us immediately all that we needed to know.  The trade of Varland on top of that indicated that possibly the next window of contention might not be until after 2030 which is Louis's first shot at free agency.  Not that Louis Varland by himself is key to anything, but it signals how the FO values contributions during that time frame - trade for guys who may be here in 2031 when the champagne finally flows. (Taj Bradley and James Outmaker would seem to be exceptions to this 2031 timeframe, but presumably there is a plan.)

Derek Shelton is no kind of signal.  Absent a dead-cat bounce like 2017 was, the Twins are in for a long stretch of thoughts and prayers.

[ziggy]

The July trade deadline moves combined with the Correa conversation is the truth about the front offices plans. No matter what they say, it's a rebuild.

[mikelink45]

Derek has a job - as the former Pirates mentor is options were limited.  He is 55, looks older and will not get younger in this job!  Good luck Derek enjoy another ride on the MLB carousel. 

[Woof Bronzer]

I continue to be of the opinion that until the Twins actually start trading their best players (Lopez, Ryan, Buxton, Jeffers, Ober, etc) and playing young guys it really isn't a rebuild.  

If you really want to be cynical, by choosing Shelton the Twins are signaling that a lot of losing is likely.  The Pirates aren't rebuilding, they are strategically deciding to lose and it has been very profitable for their billionaire owner.  Remains to be seen what the Twins do, but my belief is that they plan to run lean payrolls and lose a lot of games over the next few years while pocketing revenue shares until their mismanagement debt comes off the books and they can buy out their investors.  This strategy may well be called the Bob Nutting Plan or the Pirates Way and it's not promising that as their field chief the Twins picked a guy who spent the last 5 years implementing it.  

[Whitey333]

Just another in a long line of questionable moves by Falvey.  Very underwhelming and very predictable.   More poor and boring baseball the next several years

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

I continue to be of the opinion that until the Twins actually start trading their best players (Lopez, Ryan, Buxton, Jeffers, Ober, etc) and playing young guys it really isn't a rebuild.  

 

This seems like a reasonable position. The Twins best players are probably only Buxton, Ryan, and Lopez. 

A reasonable response though is to ask .... Where did Jhoan Duran fit among the Twins best players?

In sum, a clear direction for the team isn't exactly clear at this point but there have been signals. We wait.

[Trov]

When I saw the hiring I thought it was done because he was similar to Rocco in the analytic game, which our front office is big on.  Personally, I think they could have made a slight change but I get it.

[Woof Bronzer]

8 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

 A reasonable response though is to ask .... Where did Jhoan Duran fit among the Twins best players?

In sum, a clear direction for the team isn't exactly clear at this point but there have been signals. We wait.

Yeah, Duran would qualify as a best player.  And totally agree - it's all signals at this point.  

[Doctor Gast]

I'll state again that Shelton could be OK, if they fire most of the coaching staff. Then get decent coaches that can develop the players, instead of just feeding them data. But Falvey is delusional; he didn't want to fire Baldelli (but he had to), he probably wanted to rerun the same crew out there. I'd be very surprised if Falvey cleaned house to help the team. There's nothing he has said that tells me that he has changed his mindset.

[Battle ur tail off]

3 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Is Shelton a match for a rebuild?

He took over the Pirates and their 4th ranked (Fangraphs) farm system in 2020. They have had a top 10 system in 13 of the last 14 Fangraphs reports. They had 6 top 100 prospects when he took over. The only one of the six that has become an average major league player is Oneil Cruz and his value dropped when moved off of shortstop. Since then through last spring they had 23 different players in the top 100 prospects. Did they develop? Who is left?

Paul Skenes is very good. Oneil Cruz has a career 100 wRC+ and has moved off SS. Catcher Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez are still around both with career OPS under 600. Nick Gonzalez has a career wRC+ of 84. Mitch Keller has a career ERA of 4.51. Braxton Ashcroft and Bubba Chandler looked promising in their 8 and 4 rookie starts last year. Liover Peguero has shuttled back and forth for three years with a 74 wRC+ and is out of options. Those 9 are the good news. They are still around. Konnor Griffin and Temarr Johnson haven’t arrived yet.

The Twins have a good farm system. They have several young players in the early phase of their major league careers or are close to the majors. The Twins need a manager that will help them take the next step. Did they find one?

Maybe. They certainly aren’t going to find a manager with more experience in working with young players and helping them develop into major leaguers. Perhaps there are things he would do differently and has learned from that experience. Let’s hope the Twins are the beneficiaries of that learning.

 

I doubt it. You don't build or develop guys by running analytics constantly and pigeonholing them into what you think is best. 

Twins needed a guy that can teach baseball. Teach fundamentals and the mental part of the game. We don't need another IPAD watcher or spreadsheet pusher. These guys are great when you have a team full of already developed players. But when we are looking at a roster with a bunch of prospects and "babies" in terms of their baseball development. You need a manager that knows how to teach, not just plug and play according to some formula they have.

[Battle ur tail off]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Absent a dead-cat bounce like 2017 was, the Twins are in for a long stretch of thoughts and prayers.

Sad, but I think we all know this. Twins are in for some mid-late 90s baseball. Back down to roughly zero fans and nothing to look forward to for the better part of another decade...

[Dave Borton]

Shoot, DraftKings has the Twins odds for WS '26 at +5500. I am having my nephew in Phoenix place $20 bet for me <winks>.

[HerbieFan]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'll state again that Shelton could be OK, if they fire most of the coaching staff. Then get decent coaches that can develop the players, instead of just feeding them data. But Falvey is delusional; he didn't want to fire Baldelli (but he had to), he probably wanted to rerun the same crew out there. I'd be very surprised if Falvey cleaned house to help the team. There's nothing he has said that tells me that he has changed his mindset.

 Falvey is always the smartest guy in the room, just ask him....that's why he talks to us and reporters like we're not-very-smart and can't see what he's really saying.  To change his mindset would be to admit mistakes.  And that is never going to happen.

[Castinofan]

This managerial selection tells me one thing for sure: the new minority owners will have very little say in  club operations.  Falvey made a point in his press conference to pay lip service to consulting with new owners and giving them a seat at the table.  It's hard to imagine the new owners would have listed Shelton as their first pick.  He puts no fans in seats and has no winning record. C'mon new owners and show some moxie!  Hold Falvey's feet to the fire and make him actually improve this team.