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Posted

As MLB's offseason nears, those who follow the Minnesota Twins have received little to no information on what the club's self-imposed salary ceiling will be entering the 2026 MLB regular season. Will it hover around $140 million like it did entering the 2025 season? Will it drop down to $130 million, similar to 2024? Or, will it plummet to unforeseen levels of depravity, settling around $80-100 million?

Admittedly, every outcome is undesirable given that ownership has steadily decreased the club's payroll following its record-breaking $164 million figure in 2023. Yet, given that the club's baseline 2026 payroll sits around $95 million, there is reason to believe the Pohlad family and yet-to-be-announced limited partners will greenlight some spending flexibility. That being the case, team decision-makers could possess between $15-20 million to spend, even if payroll is reduced to an uninspiring $110-115 million entering next season.

Again, having a payroll hovering around $110-115 million in 2026 would be an act of negligence given the broader context of the league. However, $15-20 million would be a significant amount of money for the front office to spend in attempting to patch holes on Minnesota's alarmingly thin 26-man roster, with first base being the position most in need of immediate reinforcement.

Following the 2025 Trade Deadline mass exodus, wherein the club traded 11 players from its 26-man roster, Twins decision-makers elected to part ways with primary first baseman Ty France. In response, the club converted Kody Clemens into its primary first baseman, handing the left-handed hitting career journeyman the majority of starts at the position over the final two months of the season. Roger's son struggled in his newfound role, hitting .207/.264/.379 with a 75 wRC+ over 183 plate appearances. Yet, with no other option at the position in the majors or high minors, the 29-year-old enters the offseason as the club's only first base option for 2026.

Given his late-season struggles at the plate and overall offensive ineptitude over his career, Clemens is a fringe major leaguer who could be designated for assignment early next season. That being the case, Twins decision-makers must acquire another viable first base option this offseason. Interestingly, no option is more appealing than impending free agent Rhys Hoskins.

Signed to a two-year, $34 million contract by the Milwaukee Brewers two offseasons ago, Hoskins performed at a league-average rate over two seasons in Milwaukee, netting a 105 wRC+ over a combined 845 plate appearances. In his first six seasons in the majors, the former Philadelphia Phillie established himself as one of the league's premier power hitters, slugging 148 home runs over that stretch.

Hoskins continued his power-hitting tendencies in his first season in Milwaukee, hitting 26 home runs over 517 plate appearances in 2024. Unfortunately, the right-handed hitting first baseman/designated hitter missed 72 games this past season after suffering a Grade 2 left thumb sprain in early July, resulting in him hitting only 12 home runs over 328 plate appearances.

During his extended absence, Hoskins was replaced by Andrew Vaughn as Milwaukee's primary first baseman. After being left off the NLDS and NLCS roster in favor of Vaughn and backup first baseman Jake Bauers, Milwaukee will decline Hoskins's $18 million mutual option for next season, meaning the now 32-year-old will enter free agency at a depreciated rate. A necessary development for the salary-strapped Twins, team decision-makers should make a concerted effort to sign the injury-riddled slugger, particularly given the significant drop off in affordable options at the position after Hoskins.

Despite suffering an injury-riddled 2025 campaign, the hard-hitting first baseman/designated hitter should have an active market this offseason, meaning Minnesota would likely need to spend between $8-10 million to acquire Hoskins's services. Signing Hoskins to a contract in this range would likely consume a significant portion of the club's spending resources this winter. Yet, given that the 32-year-old still possesses an All-Star caliber power-hitting bat, while demonstrating respectable defense at first base, Twins decision-makers would be wise to make him their primary free agent target this offseason.

If Minnesota signed Hoskins, he would become the club's primary first baseman, while mixing in at designated hitter. The former Brewer would instantly become a cog atop Minnesota's lineup alongside plus hitters Byron Buxton, Luke Keaschall, Ryan Jeffers, and Royce Lewis. Now, Hoskins wouldn't make the Twins' lineup one of the AL's best. However, his addition would make Minnesota's lineup respectable and provide the club the opportunity to score runs more at a more efficient and consistent rate than last season, potentially helping the club return to postseason relevancy in 2026.


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Posted

Whatever they do - it will be an accidental good signing created by other circumstances or we will wait and wonder why they can't do the obvious.  I wait and see.  

Posted

Two years 16 million would be fine, but I don't know if (a) Hoskins would be willing to sign for that or  (b) If the Twins are willing to spend enough money to sign anyone of consequence. The Twins are in need of some help at the first base position, and I think a mix of Hoskins and Clemens at first would help solve that as both are streaky at the plate, so when one is hot he can play more than the other and vice versa.

Posted
6 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

In his last 845 PA he put up 0.7 WAR.  Another has been reclamation project waste of playing time.  Falvey probably loves loves loves the idea of signing him.

Falvey is sitting in his chair all day and thinking about first base , telling himself he signed France for 1 million dollars  , if i can sign 1 player for a million  , there's got to be someone else out there that would sign for the same amount  , Hoskins isn't a consideration  ...

But remind me later that I might have to eat those words but it will take more than a million ...

Posted
29 minutes ago, Permanent Twins Fan said:

Two years 16 million would be fine, but I don't know if (a) Hoskins would be willing to sign for that or  (b) If the Twins are willing to spend enough money to sign anyone of consequence. The Twins are in need of some help at the first base position, and I think a mix of Hoskins and Clemens at first would help solve that as both are streaky at the plate, so when one is hot he can play more than the other and vice versa.

I don't think it will take that much to sign him. 2 years, yes but $12-14M is more likely.

Posted

Is he completely washed up? If so an overpay may get it done. 

It's organizational malpractice that the Twins have not even tried to develop a first baseman. They seem perfectly comfortable staffing first with whoever demonstrates they can't handle second and the occasional leftover from FA. 

 

Posted
7 minutes ago, shimrod said:

Is he completely washed up? If so an overpay may get it done. 

It's organizational malpractice that the Twins have not even tried to develop a first baseman. They seem perfectly comfortable staffing first with whoever demonstrates they can't handle second and the occasional leftover from FA. 

 

To be clear, you think they haven't tried?

Posted

It all depends on the full picture of the offseason.  If this is the main move the front office makes then they might as well do nothing and just tank.  But if this signing is part of multiple similar moves then that would be fine.  They need two bullpen pitchers, a 1st basemen, and a backup catcher.

Posted

I just don't see the Twins signing ANYONE early; any acquisitions are likely to be tiny and/or really late or come via trade. I know it is frustrating, especially as news starts on other teams making moves, and I suspect there will be a lot more spec articles coming, but recent history says no big FA signings until the season looms and prices drop with initial emphasis probably on a few bullpen arms.

(Which I'm fine with. Get a manager hired, see what the team has including giving a few Saints good play in ST, and make a deal in-season as needed. If we are terrible to start, why waste the resources, if we are good, newly displaced position players are cheaper than arms .)

Posted
2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

To be clear, you think they haven't tried?

There was a 1b when Falvey took the job here that could woulda shoulda been a star. I think the guy heard Sheryl Crow sing about having fun and never worked out again. 

Posted

Hoskins played a full season last year and hit .214 with 26 HR. This year he played about half a season and hit .237 with 12 HRs. If the Twins want to lose 90+ games again next year he's a perfect fit. Borderline acceptable. Can't hit for average with an occasional HR. I fail to see how this is an upgrade. Might as well move Wallner to 1st and bring up Jenkins to play in the outfield. 2026 is a lost season anyway. Good time for Wallner to learn 1st-base and to see how Jenkins handles MLB pitching. Plus Wallner and Jenkins won't cost 8-12 Million.

Posted

Absolutely crazy that we all sit and hope and cross fingers that ownership would OK a $130M payroll for 2026, which would STILL be about $10-12M or so BELOW opening day 2025. He'll, I'd even settle for around $120M at this point.

Of course, I've been pounding the table for Naylor on a 2 or 3yr deal to just settle 1B for the next few years. Even with a $120M payroll they could do that and still have room to add a few decent pen arms and a veteran backup at catcher.

I'm of the opinion, unfortunately, that someone will simply outbid the Twins no matter what the payroll is.

My second target would be the LH Ryan O'Hearn. He'd be a Naylor-lite signing, but would cost less, still be solid, and has decent enough career splits he wouldn't necessarily have to be platooned.

And I disagree with any option that has Clemens as a platoon partner with anyone. If he makes the club, and even replicates his ML average OPS, he's a bench player who hits LH. He doesn't have to be any part of a platoon anywhere.

IMO, O'Hearn could be a really nice fit for 2026.

I just have a hard time trusting in Hoskins at this point. While 33yo next season doesn't make him ancient, and good health could see an interesting rebound, I think I'd only consider him on a cheap 1yr deal for him to prove himself. He was still an above leage average bat in 2024, though not great to be sure. But I'd only be willing to bet on that 1yr deal and then see how the position shakes out for 2027.

Posted
9 hours ago, PatPfund said:

I just don't see the Twins signing ANYONE early; any acquisitions are likely to be tiny and/or really late or come via trade.

I agree, I can't remember the last time the Twins signed any free agents before the start of the new year. As usual, they will wait, and wait .... and we will keep wondering when or if they will sign anyone. 

Posted
11 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

To be clear, you think they haven't tried?

If you look who has been playing AA and AAA the last three years its Aaron Sabato and collection of (Chris Williams, Dennis Ortega, Alex Isola, Seth Gray, Jake Rucker, Andrew Cossetti, Nate Baez, Mike Ford, Severino, Kyle Garlick, Curtis Terry, and Roy Morales) (guys that have played more than 20 games at 1B in a year.)

Hard to believe they are trying, For as long as they have been here the best 1B prospect has been Sabato, and he has never really looked like a major league player and was drafted in the first round. IMO if they were trying to develop they would have been trying Larnach or Wallner three years ago when everybody else realized having both of them starting in the outfield together might not be the best idea. It looks like they think they can sign any Ty, Carlos, Donovan, or Joey off the street to fill the role, and any of failed infield prospect (defensively failed). 

And it wouldn't be a bad way to deal with the position if they actually could develop guys that can actually hit in other positions. 

 

Posted

I am not a Pohlad fan.  They have pretty much torpedoed any enthusiasm and development of this organization.  One of my biggest criticisms is their continued employment of Falvey as head of the Twins.  He has failed miserably.  People complain about payroll and understandably so.  My contention has been Falveys handling of payroll budget.  Last year before the trading purge the Twins were 17th out of 30 teams in team payroll.  Not good but not so dire.  They consistently have been at the top of AL Central in payroll more times than not.  I think Falvey has done a terrible job of distributing the payroll given him.  The record $164 million payroll was.and is unsustainable in this market.  I thi k the Pohlads may be "cheap"  but that is overdone.  What i think is payroll next year will be around 100 million or less.  No meaningful signings.  Why spend big on payroll when you just tore it down?  Why spend payroll on a bottom feeding team?  I think we are in for a long stretch of poor baseball.

Posted

Neither this article, nor any of the posts in response to this article,  mentioned anything at all about defense at the first base position. Is defense at first base really so unimportant that it should not even be a consideration at the first base position? I contend that a good fielding first baseman will make all the other three infielders better and can be a team leader among an infield with relatively young infielders, who are somewhat challenged defensively at the other 3 positions.   

Posted

Being there is no clear 1st baseman on the roster, just a bunch of we could put them there, I would not oppose the signing.  However, the big question is for how much.  I agree he should not command too much as his numbers have been average, he is on wrong side of 30 and the team that signed him left him off playoff roster despite being "healthy" again.

The big issue is that his defense is not good, and if he is only going to be about average hitter, does he give you that much value over the other guys we could throw there?  If you think he will bounce back to be well above average hitter then it would be worth bringing him in, but being average hitter with below average glove, that is not helpful. 

Posted
10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Absolutely crazy that we all sit and hope and cross fingers that ownership would OK a $130M payroll for 2026, which would STILL be about $10-12M or so BELOW opening day 2025. He'll, I'd even settle for around $120M at this point.

Of course, I've been pounding the table for Naylor on a 2 or 3yr deal to just settle 1B for the next few years. Even with a $120M payroll they could do that and still have room to add a few decent pen arms and a veteran backup at catcher.

I'm of the opinion, unfortunately, that someone will simply outbid the Twins no matter what the payroll is.

My second target would be the LH Ryan O'Hearn. He'd be a Naylor-lite signing, but would cost less, still be solid, and has decent enough career splits he wouldn't necessarily have to be platooned.

And I disagree with any option that has Clemens as a platoon partner with anyone. If he makes the club, and even replicates his ML average OPS, he's a bench player who hits LH. He doesn't have to be any part of a platoon anywhere.

IMO, O'Hearn could be a really nice fit for 2026.

I just have a hard time trusting in Hoskins at this point. While 33yo next season doesn't make him ancient, and good health could see an interesting rebound, I think I'd only consider him on a cheap 1yr deal for him to prove himself. He was still an above leage average bat in 2024, though not great to be sure. But I'd only be willing to bet on that 1yr deal and then see how the position shakes out for 2027.

Sign a LH guy at 1B is the sentiment from you & I agree! ……..Clemens is not the answer with regular playing time. Clemens may be the 13th guy, until youth is ready, because he can play 4 positions. Maybe?

Per you, won’t be able to compete for Naylor. O’Hearn at around $8-$10M will be tough for organization to pull the trigger on, but it’s needed. Probably   other clubs in the mix for him as well.

Wallner - Larnach - Clemens - etc. as a 1B solution are all bad ideas if trying to actually be competitive. Don’t see the OF guys magically becoming competent at 1B ……. Wallner has plenty of issues just focusing on struggles at the plate.

2 position signings needed (C & 1B) with 2 reliever signings needed. Can get these done for $35M - right? Takes them to $130M total (less than 2022 spend) with current roster guys.

LH free agent at 1B with Jeffers being the platoon RH guy at 1B (40 games). Hopefully, LH guy at C from free agency and Jeffers catches 30 games & is DH 70 games, with Parades (?) on the Roster for 50 games. 

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