Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Recommended Posts

Posted
Image courtesy of Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

It was one of the most mystifying moves made at the trade deadline: Brock Stewart to the Dodgers for a 28-year-old outfielder named James Outman. Unlike a majority of players acquired by Minnesota at the deadline, Outman was not anything resembling a prospect or youthful building block. He's what we would call a "post-hype" player — he initially exploded onto the scene, bursting with promise, but has since faded into obscurity.

Two years ago, Outman finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year voting, and appeared to be embedding himself as a cornerstone in the Los Angeles outfield. It speaks volumes that by the time LA traded him, he was serving in a minimally-used bench role, and when the Twins acquired him, they sent him to Triple-A despite his nearly 800 plate appearances in the majors. 

Outman did what you hoped he would do: he went to the minors and hit. Following an 0-for-12 start with the Saints he went on a nine-game hitting streak with six extra-base hits (three homers). Now we'll get a look at Outman in the big leagues, as the Twins announced on Saturday that he's been recalled to replace Alan Roden, down with a sprained UCL in his thumb.

Roden came over in the other candidate for most mystifying move at the deadline: trading local legend Louis Varland and his many years of team control to the Blue Jays. In a small sample of 40 plate appearances Roden was doing little to impress, with a .463 OPS and zero walks. So the bar is low for Outman, who unfortunately offers no guarantees of improving upon that production.

From Top to Bottom: James Outman's Rise and Fall in Los Angeles
Outman’s rise to the majors was a rapid and impressive climb: drafted by the Dodgers in the seventh round in 2018, the outfielder steadily developed his power-speed profile in the minors before breaking out in 2022 with a strong showing at Double-A and Triple-A. That earned him a midseason call-up, where he homered in his first big-league at-bat.

In 2023, Outman was a regular for the 100-win Dodgers. He slashed .248/.353/.437 with 23 homers, 16 steals and 68 walks. Unspectacular but very solid production. He finished third behind Corbin Carroll and Kodai Senga in Rookie of the Year voting. 

In what will sound like a very familiar story to Twins fans, who watched Edouard Julien receive ROTY votes that year on the AL side, Outman was handed the reins following a strong rookie campaign — and completely flopped. He was the Dodgers starting center fielder to open 2024, but slashed .147/.250/.266 through 36 games and was demoted to Triple-A. Since then it's been nothing but extremely poor performance and diminishing opportunity for Outman. In 200 MLB plate appearances across 2024 and 2025, he has a 45 OPS+ and a negative-0.7 fWAR.

This made him an odd return in a 1-for-1 trade for Stewart, who was finally healthy and dealing out of the Twins bullpen. I suspected at the time that this value swap said more about the state of Stewart's medicals than Outman being viewed as some untapped asset, and sure enough, Stewart is already on the injured list in LA with shoulder inflammation. 

Still, I don't doubt that the Twins saw things in Outman they felt they could build on. And if they can turn him into any kind of useful piece, that would be a win, because while they're overloaded with lefty-swinging outfielders they are far from overloaded with guys who can play a decent center field. 

The Twins indicated that they assigned Outman to Triple-A initially to help him find his timing after playing sparingly for the Dodgers. The small sample of performance would seem to suggest that worked, as the 28-year-old started slow and rapidly improved. But was that two-week stretch enough to truly find his swing in a way that will translate to the majors? We're about to find out.

The Key to Unlocking Outman's Upside
For better or worse, Outman is going to swing and miss at a level that'll make Matt Wallner blush. Even at his best, Outman had one of the highest whiff rates and strikeout rates in baseball. Making contact with regularity is not something he is going to do well, under any circumstance. But if we look at his Statcast profile from 2023, we do find a few things he was doing very well, and Minnesota's front office would surely like to tap back into those strengths.

outmanstatcast2023.png

Discipline is the glaring capability that has vanished from Outman's skill set since 2023. Back then, laying off the junk and drawing walks at a steady clip was a key part of his success, enabling his standout bat speed and barrel rate to carry him despite limited contact. It's a big part of what currently makes Wallner great. Now it'll become the most important thing to watch with Outman. 

We know he's going to strike out a lot. Can he put forth competitive at-bats, draw the occasional walk, and let his raw power do the work? It's not something the Twins have specialized in; they currently have the sixth-worst team BB-rate in the majors, and were seventh-worst last year.

Welcome the the Post-Hype Desert
While Outman offers some intrigue, it feels hard to have any confidence that the Twins are going to turn around his wayward performance. As I alluded earlier, the post-hype player in his mid-to-late 20s is an all-too-common prototype around here, and in fact, those players are arguably at the crux of this team's downfall. Minnesota planned around Julien, and José Miranda, and Trevor Larnach, and many others over the course of the past few seasons only to see regression spiral uncontrollably, time and again. Can they get Outman on track and help him find what he lost as a hitter? I wish that this team's track record gave any reason to believe it. 

Soon enough, we’ll learn whether the Twins can finally flip the script on their hitter development woes. Outman is up, and his Minnesota debut could arrive as soon as Saturday night.


View full article

Posted

In general not a huge fan of this type of player.  I do love the athleticism.  Hoping that somehow, someway he can figure things out fairly quickly as the Twins could use his skillset if he can hit the baseball.

Posted

Outman is another Falvey out-house project. Falvey will take away an opportunity from an in-house player, in a situation where that player could really prosper & hand it to one of his projects that normally wouldn't work out as well as if given to one of our own. Even if he is a dud (not saying he is), the Twins will be very patient with him & give him a ton of constant regular ABs, long after it's obvious that he's a dud. But for an in-house player, he'll give him one shot & that's it. 

I wonder why the Twins are so flat? IMO, we are missing the fire & chemistry that comes when an in-house player (like Keaschall) comes up & does well.

Posted
11 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Yes. They’ve gone with MAT, Magoo, and Bader the last three years. In steps Outman. Keep that payroll at Pirates level, Joe P is pleased with himself. 

In theory a Buxton Outman Keirsey outfield would save twice as many runs as it would generate.

Posted
50 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Outman is another Falvey out-house project. Falvey will take away an opportunity from an in-house player, in a situation where that player could really prosper & hand it to one of his projects that normally wouldn't work out as well as if given to one of our own. Even if he is a dud (not saying he is), the Twins will be very patient with him & give him a ton of constant regular ABs, long after it's obvious that he's a dud. But for an in-house player, he'll give him one shot & that's it. 

I wonder why the Twins are so flat? IMO, we are missing the fire & chemistry that comes when an in-house player (like Keaschall) comes up & does well.

They just traded for him. This take is weird. To be clear, I hated this trade. But he's on the roster and was great two years ago. 

Posted
11 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They just traded for him. This take is weird. To be clear, I hated this trade. But he's on the roster and was great two years ago. 

If he can give Michael A Taylor production its all good.

Posted

Outman has no chance.  He's not Wallner.  Pitchers will pitch him in the zone all day if they have to.  They don't have to.

This was by far the most head-scratching trade.  Outman has no value for this team.  He's a LIDR/PR for a team that's not competing.  Essentially, the Twins got no value for Stewart.

Posted
9 minutes ago, Patzky said:

If he can give Michael A Taylor production its all good.

Taylor only had one year in the majors where his wRC+ was above average and that was only 104.  He also didn't hit in Milb with the exception of a good year at AA.  Outman hit well at every level and had a wRC+ of 116 as a rookie.  He was injured and never got back on track.  I didn't like the trade but acknowledge there is a reasonable chance he gets back on track.  It's a great trade if he can back to being an above average hitter given his defense.   I wouldn't bet for or against that happening.  

Posted
1 minute ago, Major League Ready said:

Taylor only had one year in the majors where his wRC+ was above average and that was only 104.  He also didn't hit in Milb with the exception of a good year at AA.  Outman hit well at every level and had a wRC+ of 116 as a rookie.  He was injured and never got back on track.  I didn't like the trade but acknowledge there is a reasonable chance he gets back on track.  It's a great trade if he can back to being an above average hitter given his defense.   I wouldn't bet for or against that happening.  

I think we may be pleasantly surprised. Not sure why. Now that Beefsteak is down the pressure is sorta off.

Posted
52 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Beef Stew had a 4.91 era in 4 outings with the Dodgers and is now on the IL. I didn’t like the trade at the time but Stewart has already pitched more innings in 25 than he ever has in MLB. Jury is still out on this trade. 

And that has Dodger Daily wanting to fire their FO....

Posted

Seems to me that Outman is a better version of Keirsey. They are the same age, both run and field well, but can’t hit. Outman would appear to have more power, but also more strikeouts. If he could come anywhere close to replicating his 2023 stats, he would be valuable. 
 

Posted
3 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Seems to me that Outman is a better version of Keirsey.

Or worse. Not off to a good start.

Posted
6 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Outman is another Falvey out-house project. Falvey will take away an opportunity from an in-house player, in a situation where that player could really prosper & hand it to one of his projects that normally wouldn't work out as well as if given to one of our own. Even if he is a dud (not saying he is), the Twins will be very patient with him & give him a ton of constant regular ABs, long after it's obvious that he's a dud. But for an in-house player, he'll give him one shot & that's it. 

I wonder why the Twins are so flat? IMO, we are missing the fire & chemistry that comes when an in-house player (like Keaschall) comes up & does well.

Who is this un-named in-house player who can be a Buxton replacement that has not been given a chance?

Posted
6 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Outman has no chance.  He's not Wallner.  Pitchers will pitch him in the zone all day if they have to.  They don't have to.

This was by far the most head-scratching trade.  Outman has no value for this team.  He's a LIDR/PR for a team that's not competing.  Essentially, the Twins got no value for Stewart.

Stewart's old, his ERA in LA is about 5 and now he's injured and hasn't pitched (unless today) in about a week.  I wouldn't hang my hat on hating this trade... what value did you expect?

Posted

Nice read of Outman's skill set - so his last name applies to both his defense and hitting.  Replace Keirsey with Outman and see if he can bunt any better - looks like he knows how to take a walk.   Might as well play him the rest of this lost year.  

Posted

I didn't like this trade because Stewart was at least someone who could throw in the closer's role and be credible and after the deals we simply don't have anyone like that. Getting back Outman seems to do nothing for the team in the short or long term, so why make the deal? Admittedly, you simply can't count on Stewart to be a core part of your bullpen with his injury history (I think you have to look at him as a player where if you get things out of him it's additive, not something to be relied on) but very hard to be enthusiastic about Outman.

He's got some talent, and he clearly can play all three OF spots and run the bases effectively, but he's really flopped as a hitter the last season and a half. Is he better than Kiersey? Probably, and if he can stop chasing everything that any pitcher throws his way, maybe he can be an acceptable 4th OF. But the floor is low and the ceiling ain't high.

I'm fine with flinging him out there for the rest of august and september and see what we've got, I guess? But if Rodriguez were healthy I'd much rather have the Twins take a look at him, since he offers everything Outman can bring to the table except baserunning with a much higher ceiling at the plate. Maybe that's why this deal happened: they simply don't believe Rodriguez can stay healthy for a anywhere near a full season any longer?

Posted
9 hours ago, Wedman13 said:

Stewart's old, his ERA in LA is about 5 and now he's injured and hasn't pitched (unless today) in about a week.  I wouldn't hang my hat on hating this trade... what value did you expect?

I'm sad for him but a 5.00 era sounds great after seeing Ohl and friends.

Posted

Could someone again tell me why McCusker isn't up (striking out) with the big club????

I am looking for any spark that will come to the Twins (I know the "end-of-season" spark is coming)

 

Hmmm, how to get Outman back 2 years ago...Perhaps we could get him to change his name to "GetOnBase"Man......(Irony....I've seen it on TD before)

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
The Twins Daily Caretaker Fund
The Twins Daily Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premier Twins community on the internet.

×
×
  • Create New...