A Way-Too-Early Look at the 2026 Minnesota Twins Roster

[Nashvilletwin]

14 minutes ago, miller761 said:

I think it is relevant to state there is a good chance of no baseball or a shortened season in 2027. Therefore any player under control through the 2027 season may only be under control for next year. Did or does that factor in trade decisions?

100% it does - especially for a rebuilding club like the Twins.

What might it mean? 2026 is about building for 2028.  Thus, look for Ryan and Lopez to be traded during the offseason to teams serious about contending in 2026.  Both should bring a serious haul of close projectable talent.Jeffers might also be moved at the 2026 deadline as the young catching talent in the system now might be projectable by then. 

[Mike Sixel]

24 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I am certain the major league slash stats for Outman the last two years as well as those for Gasper and Roden are small samples and are not useful for projecting forward. If they matched those sample with mediocre play in AAA the last few years that would be telling. I think the major league samples are further weakened by the sporadic play they have received while on the major league roster.

I don’t know if any can follow through on the promise they have shown in AAA but none have been given any kind of real chance this year if you are basing an assessment by looking at a stat line.

Outman has a high strikeout rate that is real. He showed it in the minors. He showed it in his rookie season where he finished third in ROY. It is hard to be successful in the majors with a high K rate in the minors. That K rate can lead to prolonged slumps. Wallner faces a similar challenge. Had he been on the Dodgers he probably wouldn’t have made it through his month of June. The Dodgers can afford to be less patient.

In spite of awful stat lines the last two years Outman still has a career OPS+ of 100. He is a good outfielder at all three positions. I wouldn’t let him go before they need to cut the roster to 26 next spring.

I don’t think it is wise to make a definitive statement about any of the three based on their major league time the last two seasons. 

We're just going to disagree that a 28 yo who can't make the TWins roster in a rebuilding year is someone that shouldn't be DFA.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Nashvilletwin said:

100% it does - especially for a rebuilding club like the Twins.

What might it mean? 2026 is about building for 2028.  Thus, look for Ryan and Lopez to be traded during the offseason to teams serious about contending in 2026.  Both should bring a serious haul of close projectable talent.Jeffers might also be moved at the 2026 deadline as the young catching talent in the system now might be projectable by then. 

I do agree that a possible work stoppage makes it more likely they are traded.

[Rosterman]

By mid-August, the Twins should have no one on the roster and gtetting innings or at bats that isn't expected to contribute in some way in 2026. 

Make the hard decision on Julien, Gasper. Even Fritzgerald. Many can be resigned as a minor league free agent if they so wish, like Hatch and even Tonkin. Or watch them go elsewhere.

You will be able to add a couple of names come September, but still, can look at all those 10/11 starters. If there is a double-header, call-up Raya for at least one start, if nothing else. See who might be better for the "long relief" role going forward, like Adams, Festa, Woods Richardson.

Regarding 2026, Austin Martin gets the call until you decide on Rodriguez, Gonzalez or maybe even Jenkins.

You need tyo look at WInkel and Cardenas, in the least.

I would go ahead and bring up Prielipp for a couple of innings. Let him see what he needs to do in the off-season, and can he handle a one inning roll.

Hard=decisions going forth on Wallner, Outman, Larnach, Roden. You really only need two of them.

Yes, expect the Twins to trade Ryan and Lopez, sadly. WIll still have a payroll pushing towards $100m.

Anyone think Aaron Sabato deserves a shot? He's a minor league free agent!

[jorgenswest]

12 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

We're just going to disagree that a 28 yo who can't make the TWins roster in a rebuilding year is someone that shouldn't be DFA.

Aren’t you the same guy who has wisely preached patience on Wallner who is 27. Outman’s career wRC+ doesn’t match Wallner’s but Outman needs to be compared to center fielders. Outman has over 1500 career major league innings in CF with an OOA of 11. That is 2023 Michael Taylor level. Since 2023 they have used Margot, Martin and Keirsey as the back up center fielder. Outman has a career wRC+ of 103. I am going to at least have enough patience with him until the roster decision next spring. Are there clearly better and reliable solutions for Buxton’s back up on the roster? Can they acquire a good back up option that meets their budget? 

I also assume that Out,an is in AAA because the Twins are trying to change something about his swing or approach to try to get him to closer to where was in 2023. I think the decision to put Abel, Bradley and Outman is about them working on their craft before joining the major league club.

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Aren’t you the same guy who has wisely preached patience on Wallner who is 27. Outman’s career wRC+ doesn’t match Wallner’s but Outman needs to be compared to center fielders. Outman has over 1500 career major league innings in CF with an OOA of 11. That is 2023 Michael Taylor level. Since 2023 they have used Margot, Martin and Keirsey as the back up center fielder. Outman has a career wRC+ of 103. I am going to at least have enough patience with him until the roster decision next spring. Are there clearly better and reliable solutions for Buxton’s back up on the roster? Can they acquire a good back up option that meets their budget? 

I also assume that Out,an is in AAA because the Twins are trying to change something about his swing or approach to try to get him to closer to where was in 2023. I think the decision to put Abel, Bradley and Outman is about them working on their craft before joining the major league club.

Wallner is in the majors, hitting well (not consistently week to week)......it isn't even close. 

Like I said, we aren't going to agree. 

[LewFordLives]

Under no circumstances should Clemens be penciled in as the everyday first baseman. He has performed better than expected for essentially being a waiver wire pickup, but he is not an everyday player on a good team.

I agree with the other comments that Ober will be given every chance to hold down a rotation slot.

The bullpen scares me (not in a good way). I suspect the front office thinks they can piece it together with waiver pickups and late February bargain basement free-agent signings, like they do every year.

[Major League Ready]

My guess is the rotation starts with Lopez / Matthews / Bradley / Festa / SWR.  They will keep Pablo around as a mentor and fan favorite.  They will keep Abel in AAA to work on control because it makes no sense to rush him in a rebuilding year, especially if it means a year of control.   Do you want rush a not quite ready Mick Abel in a lost year or do you prefer to have him an extra year when he should be at his peak.  That's the tradeoff for him starting the year at the big league level.  Culpepper won't be here for the same reason.  They will give him 6-8 weeks to prove himself at AAA and he will be called up if he looks read to graduate AAA .

I won't even guess about the BP and I think trading Ryan/Ober and Larnach will yield a player or 2 that is major league ready.

[Paul Walerius]

Why did I just waste my time reading this?

[karcherd]

I agree Clemens should be brought back as only a bench player, give 250 AB's, that is where he brings the most value on a winning team.

There seems to be a theme about many of the players they traded for or signed.  They all have flaws that apparently only the Twins can fix.  I get taking a shot on someone here and there but the arrogance of this front office thinking they are this supreme organization when it comes to fixing players is not grounded in reality.  I would love to see them actually bring someone in that can successfully contribute immediately.

[Patzky]

2 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Just a few comments:

1] Ober is in the rotation, not the pen.

2] Which SP options move to the pen will be interesting. Not going to dig in to who's and maybes at this time, but a couple are going to be converted for sure.

3] I don't think Prielipp goes to the pen any time real soon. However, with a handful of solid LH options added to the system over the past couple of years/month, it might be tempting to do so. Someone mentioned 2nd half help next year?

3] Gonzalez does not play all 3 OF spots. He saw 12 games there in 2021 and 2 games in 2022. That's it.

4] Larnach will be gone in a deal or part of a package for help elsewhere.

5] Wallner should be on RF and Rodriguez should be in LF as there is more ground to cover. 

6] If Rodriguez was on the team, no way Outman makes it, or is needed. E Rod is Buxton's backup. Roden and Keaschall can be your #3 emergency options.

7] With Outman gone, now there's room for Gonzalez...or possibly Fedko...for a RH OF, which they need.

I've been going over the same names and possibilities myself. I keep coming up with 2 or 3 solid FA pen arms that don't break the bank and then a veteran 1B for proven production and another veteran in the lineup. Josh Naylor comes to mind. 

Fun stuff! Thanks for the exercise!

More fun than a fantasy football draft prep sheet!

[Nashvilletwin]

So what did we get out of:

Kiriloff, Larnach, Miranda, Julien, Gordon, Martin, Lewis, Rodriguez, Lee, and Wallner?

One yet to be proven everyday starter (Lewis - eight years later #1 pick)

One platoon right fielder (Wallner)

One utility infielder (Lee)

How’d we do? I think nine of those ten were top 100 prospects at one point (not sure about Wallner).  Not one is an average to above average major leaguer. 

[mikelink45]

The only opinion I have with this is that they title is correct - way to early. 

[big dog]

I hope there is no realistic scenario in which Travis Adams stays on the team, at least with his current pitch mix.

[Fatbat]

Its a great baseline as thats what we have on board now in the org. Changes will be interesting to track before spring training.  I do wonder if Ober would be a great bullpen guy or a complete bust at it. I also see a full season of this bullpen game thing they do a lot of now. Its more than just because of necessity. Its a trending plan. 

[Fatbat]

3 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

So what did we get out of:

Kiriloff, Larnach, Miranda, Julien, Gordon, Martin, Lewis, Rodriguez, Lee, and Wallner?

One yet to be proven everyday starter (Lewis - eight years later #1 pick)

One platoon right fielder (Wallner)

One utility infielder (Lee)

How’d we do? I think nine of those ten were top 100 prospects at one point (not sure about Wallner).  Not one is an average to above average major leaguer. 

We traded away Rooker, Steer, CES to name a few. At some point we will hit on greatness. 

[TheLeviathan]

I'd be pretty surprised if Lopez was a Twins come opening day next year.

One of the lefty corner OFs probably needs a new home too.

[DannySD]

Not a bad starting point. Yeah, I think some combo of Raya, Ohl, Adams, maybe SWR or Festa could open the season in the Twins bullpen, and KC could be the starting shortstop. Ober needs to stay in the rotation, he's been mostly good until this hip thing. I think they have options they'll use on Topa, Sands, and Tonkin, right? And they need a few AAA starters waiting. 

If they keep Ryan and Lopez, they could even contend a little if they find another good infielder and a super-util. I think Larnach gets traded, and they spend some FA money on IF, a catcher, and a couple bullpen guys. 

 

 

[ToddlerHarmon]

15 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

If they have new owners who are willing to add to the budget I hope they spend it on one bat and then one arm

Two bats; if you are spending, you are keeping Lopez and Ryan, and you will need lineup oomph to make that worthwhile. Sure add a bullpen arm, but that is hardly your big spend.

[TL]

There has to be new ownership. New ownership would keep Pablo and Ryan and add a bat, perhaps even trading some of our wealth of prospects for a big bat to play 1B, which would really balance out the lineup. There is potential for 2026 with new ownership in place.  

[dxpavelka]

My favorite part of this article is the comment:  "the Twins will need to spend some real money on free agents or trading for guys with significant salaries"  When, of course, the last time they did that the fan reaction was "why did they do that?"  Or the time before.  Or the time before.  Which brings me back to my favorite observation about Twins fans:  The only thing Twins fans like doing more than complaining about the team not spending money is complaining about the team spending money.

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, TL said:

There has to be new ownership. New ownership would keep Pablo and Ryan and add a bat, perhaps even trading some of our wealth of prospects for a big bat to play 1B, which would really balance out the lineup. There is potential for 2026 with new ownership in place.  

So much optimism about what new ownership would do.  Wanna know what new ownership will do?  Be hamstrung by the realities of MLB finances same as the old ownership.  Good luck.

[jmlease1]

12 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

So what did we get out of:

Kiriloff, Larnach, Miranda, Julien, Gordon, Martin, Lewis, Rodriguez, Lee, and Wallner?

One yet to be proven everyday starter (Lewis - eight years later #1 pick)

One platoon right fielder (Wallner)

One utility infielder (Lee)

How’d we do? I think nine of those ten were top 100 prospects at one point (not sure about Wallner).  Not one is an average to above average major leaguer. 

Neither Wallner nor Julien made the top 100 lists. Miranda barely cracked a top 100 list in one season. It's not a great track record, but you're underrating Wallner and his career 132 OPS+. Larnach is a platoon outfielder. Lewis Royce has tons and tons of injuries, but still looks like he can be a quality starter.

Rodriguez is yet to be determined; still plenty young, but also constantly dealing with injuries. notably, Kirilloff, Miranda, Gordon, Lewis, and Rodriguez have all had significant injury issues. The inference here is that the Twins made bad decisions on all these players and/or failed to develop them, but for half the list injury issues have derailed their careers in some way. None of these guys had a discernible history of injuries when selected (none of them were guys like Preilipp...or even Keaschall, who was known to have a elbow issue that would need to be addressed). Are you saying the Twins should have known that these guys would all get hurt?

 

[karcherd]

9 hours ago, Fatbat said:

I also see a full season of this bullpen game thing they do a lot of now. Its more than just because of necessity. Its a trending plan. 

This is only a trending plan by the Twins.  Yes there are fewer 7 and 8 inning starts but winning teams are not using bullpen games as a strategy to win games.  We have seen the results of this plan after only two weeks in last nights game.  Imagine what it would be like thru the course of a season.  You need length from your pitchers, that has always been and will be true.

Those saying this is a trend or want piggybacking are just trying to justify Falvey's actions.

[Major League Ready]

36 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

My favorite part of this article is the comment:  "the Twins will need to spend some real money on free agents or trading for guys with significant salaries"  When, of course, the last time they did that the fan reaction was "why did they do that?"  Or the time before.  Or the time before.  Which brings me back to my favorite observation about Twins fans:  The only thing Twins fans like doing more than complaining about the team not spending money is complaining about the team spending money.

My recollection is a large majority of people cheered when they signed Correa.  Many were even for signing him when the deal was 12 years.  It was more split on Donaldson but the majority liked the signing.  There were even people who preferred they keep him when he got traded away.  I might be wrong but it seemed like the majority applauded the Vazquez signing.

All of this is tangential.  The organization committed to a rebuild.  We gutted our BP and traded away Correa.  Larnach and Lee simply are not a solution and our best solution at 1B is Clemmens.  Yet, the approach is be ready to contend on day 1.  It's OK to wish they had not decided to rebuild but to change direction now would be truly incompetent, especially with 2027 in question.

[Ruven]

Maybe Rojas will be just fine and nothing will come of this concern, but he has the same issue with his release as Liriano did pre-TJ: a stiff front leg on the follow through such that most of the energy of the motion/release must be absorbed by the back and the arm. There’s a price to be paid for that. Liriano was great until his Tommy John. After it he was serviceable. Seeing where Rojas has the same action in his release, the likelihood of the same result, eventually, is worrisome. 

[mnfireman]

Future salary commitments per Baseball Reference (based on current roster, no FA signings):

2026 - Guaranteed contracts (2) $37.1 MM, Options (1) $2 MM, Arbitration eligible (6) $46.2 MM, Pre-arb contracts (17) $12.89 MM; Total payroll $96.2 MM (no options) $97.5 MM (all options)

2027 - Guaranteed contracts (2) $36.9 MM, Arbitration eligible (17) $130.9 MM, Pre-arb contracts (6) $4.55 MM; Total payroll $172.4 MM

2028 - Guaranteed contracts (1) $15.14 MM, Arbitration eligible (23) $177.1 MM, Pre-arb contracts (1) $758.18 K: Total payroll $193 MM

2029 Guaranteed contracts (0), Arbitration eligible (19) $146.3 MM, Pre-arb contracts (6) $4.55 MM: Total payroll $150.9 MM

I don't know why BR only uses a 25 man roster, but it is what it is. This is purely a speculative exercise, not all players on the current roster will be here to influence these numbers, but it shows how a group of players coming through the system together and only getting arbitration raises can influence payroll. 

[JD-TWINS]

21 hours ago, SF Twins Fan said:

Bradley or Able are much more likely to shift to the bullpen than Ober.

Ober is a starter or traded.

Larnach is a starter or more than likely traded (.768 OPS v. RH pitching - hesitation)

Festa doesn’t seem to have the durability at this point to start….. he’s in my PEN & Matthews is moved to Closer

Emma has shown zero signs of being able to play for more than a month in a row - Gonzalez has his spot on my roster.

Winkel seems OK for #2 Catcher, per your description - right? SPEND on FA Catcher …… move Jeffers to 3rd string C and play him 2-3 times per month behind plate …. regular at 1B!

Clemens is #13 guy, with 4 position versatility.

Lee - Larnach - Roden - SWR - Ober - Festa are all trade candidates along with prospects.

Rotation: Lopez-Ryan-Bradley-Abel-Ober (or other)

PEN gets 1-2 FA signings & Prielipp - Matthews - Sands - Raya - Morris - SWR - Festa - Funderburk ……..Adams has to go away

[jccracraft]

Too early to give up on Brooks Lee. 

[JD-TWINS]

6 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Future salary commitments per Baseball Reference (based on current roster, no FA signings):

2026 - Guaranteed contracts (2) $37.1 MM, Options (1) $2 MM, Arbitration eligible (6) $46.2 MM, Pre-arb contracts (17) $12.89 MM; Total payroll $96.2 MM (no options) $97.5 MM (all options)

2027 - Guaranteed contracts (2) $36.9 MM, Arbitration eligible (17) $130.9 MM, Pre-arb contracts (6) $4.55 MM; Total payroll $172.4 MM

2028 - Guaranteed contracts (1) $15.14 MM, Arbitration eligible (23) $177.1 MM, Pre-arb contracts (1) $758.18 K: Total payroll $193 MM

2029 Guaranteed contracts (0), Arbitration eligible (19) $146.3 MM, Pre-arb contracts (6) $4.55 MM: Total payroll $150.9 MM

I don't know why BR only uses a 25 man roster, but it is what it is. This is purely a speculative exercise, not all players on the current roster will be here to influence these numbers, but it shows how a group of players coming through the system together and only getting arbitration raises can influence payroll. 

Arbitration & pre-arbitration eligible in ‘26 @ $59M up to (with same total of 23 guys) arbitration & pre-arbitration in ‘27 @ $135M.

I get you are just reporting what you see published but does this seem realistic? Hard for me to fathom this type of increase with one more year of service time……everyone more than doubles salary on average?