BREAKING: Twins Trade Jhoan Duran to Philadelphia Phillies

[MinnesotaTwins26]

Rebuilding?

 

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Wedman13 said:

FanGraphs sucks!  Just kidding, I've never looked at them. :)

They literally get guys hired by teams market every year....

[nicksaviking]

9 minutes ago, Wedman13 said:

Well some on here seem to.  

Did we need to trade him.  Absolutely not.  Does a top closer help this team this year, or next?  Absolutely not.

An elite bullpen does help next year if a new owner is willing to increase payroll by 20M and they hire a manager who wants to develop young players and can teach fundamentals. And both of those are minor asks from a new owner.

[KirbyDome89]

3 minutes ago, NotAboutWinning said:

Duran was effectively a rental.  He was going to get very expensive in arbitration next year. The Twins were not going to pay. Jax will get expensive as well, but not to the same extent.

Huh?

[madtowntwin]

13 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

They caved. There was a report that the Phillies were out because the Twins insisted on Painter. The Twins had the leverage. They did not need to trade Duran unless they were blown away.

They didn’t get the catcher they need for 27. They didn’t get a starter that projects to be playoff level in 26 or 27.

If you deal Duran for this much control the grade should be an A. If it is not an A grade it is an F. Absolute failure.

The only way this is a good deal is when Abel is above league average and playoff quality starter next year and Tait is ready to replace Jeffers when he hits free agency in 27. When that happens I will be back to eat crow. Until then it is a failure.

Two Things: First, Painter is the equivalent of the Brewers Misiorwoski - It was made absolutely clear that he was untouchable from the Philly Front Office. Secondly - He's already had TJ surgery if you were not aware...Tait is only 23 - WAY to early to close the book on him yet. 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, madtowntwin said:

Two Things: First, Painter is the equivalent of the Brewers Misiorwoski - It was made absolutely clear that he was untouchable from the Philly Front Office. Secondly - He's already had TJ surgery if you were not aware...Tait is only 23 - WAY to early to close the book on him yet. 

Tait is 19.... If you mean Abel, agreed, we don't know yet. But he better be a lot better than anyone is predicting for this to work. 

[LewFordLives]

49 minutes ago, Rik19753 said:

Front office screwed the pooch on this one.

You know it's a bad trade when the fans of the team buying are calling the price "fair" or "reasonable", which is all I am seeing on X.

I have a friend from Philly and he says the Twins got screwed.

[PseudoSABR]

20 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

If you deal Duran for this much control the grade should be an A. If it is not an A grade it is an F. Absolute failure.

What? I don't think you know how grades work. 

[Patzky]

31 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

I'm not a fan of this trade, but his 2.31 ERA in 13 AAA starts this year should be a little more meaningful than his 2024 numbers. 

Isn't this the guy that beat Skenes in his first start?

[NYCTK]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

An elite bullpen does help next year if a new owner is willing to increase payroll by 20M and they hire a manager who wants to develop young players and can teach fundamentals. And both of those are minor asks from a new owner.

If there's a new owner, and if they're willing to operate at a loss for a team that is really bad the last two seasons and has a lot of work to do in order to compete. 

I think this is a B grade trade. Not incredible and with 24 hours left on the clock and no rush to trade I would have kept the lines open. Buy the thought process was good. 

As a Mets fan, I hope he blows up and completely sucks in Philly. 

[Nshore]

5 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

Why do this when you have two years of control? It should have Painter and Miller or GTFO.

That was my question.  Unless they're going to move Ryan too, and feel they won't even need a closer for a couple years.

[Patzky]

8 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Thanks. Seems like a fair evaluation with the Phillies at an A- and the Twins at a B+. The difference is that Philly got a guy that will help them now and you have to project the prospects helping the Twins. We will just have to see.

Philly needs a guy to help them now.

We are 50-56..

[Mike Sixel]

Btw, someone said the Mets paid more in their deal? Strong disagree. 

[Hubie29]

25 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

That's a little misleading. Abel is 7-2 with a 2.31 ERA in AAA this year with 81 SOs in 74 innings and a 1.16 Whip. He's had his first 25 big league innings this year where he's 2-2. 5.04 ERA, 21 SOs and a 1.36 Whip. In other words, dominant in AAA this year and not a bad start for his first shot in the Bigs. Oh, by the way, he's all of 23 years old and was the 15th pick in the 202 draft. And he's the #2 guy we got. Tait is the headliner and he has a 55 FV, same as Emmanuel Rodriguez, Luke Keaschall, and Kaelen Culpepper. These two guys are the number 4 and 6 prospects on the Phillies top 20 and both were in the MLB top 100 before the draft -  Tait at 56, Abel at 92. For reference, Walter Jenkins was 15, Emma 40, Keaschall 42, and Culpepper 82.  They wanted 2 top 100 guys and got them. This return is essentially Keaschall and Culpepper. 

 

Look, I would not have traded Duran for reasons I've stated in other threads. If you do though, the idea that this is a paltry return or that Falvey got fleeced is a little over the top. You can argue about the wisdom of trading Duran for two prospects but if you do a mid-season trade that's what you get; prospects. I just wonder who is going to close for the rest of 2025 because let's face it, Jax sucks at closing.  Actually wouldn't surprise me if Jax goes too before the deadline.   

Ya, we know how AAA stats translate to the majors all too well. Didn't have to trade Duran unless our needs and players desired are met. 

[Wedman13]

6 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

Why do this when you have two years of control? It should have been Painter and Miller or GTFO.

Because we will not be good for two years, so he provides no value, and Duran will get expensive.  Have you ever negotiated anything?  Demanding a ridiculous return isn't how it goes. 

[jorgenswest]

5 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

What? I don't think you know how grades work. 

I know they could get a B deal next year and keep Duran. If the argument is he might get injured then they might as well trade any playoff caliber player because they might be injured in the future. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

12 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

And even if they did have to trade him, why take less than your price before the deadline date?  You had another 24 hours.  A lot of desperation can set in, especially as other relievers come off the board.  
 

This feels like Falvey lost a staring contest.  And that’s with me liking  what I hear about the catcher

And if you're price is not met tomorrow you wait until the winter to deal him when you have many many more clubs who are looking to build towards 2026. He did not have to be traded now.

[Wedman13]

4 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

I have a friend from Philly and he says the Twins got screwed.

I have a friend from Philly and he is concerned about Durans 3mph velocity loss

[madtowntwin]

15 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I really wanted a deal with the Dodgers for Rushing and the best arm I could get that was hopefully AA or higher.

I do not disagree - Not sure what the Dodgers are thinking or working on...Duran was just in their backyard, Rushing is indeed a tempting prospect. On the other hand Tait is the #4 prospect at the coveted catching position in the highly regarded Phillies farm system at the age of 18. Would Falvey's phone have been ringing from LA several hours from now?? We will never know....At least in terms of a Duran trade. 

[jorgenswest]

5 minutes ago, madtowntwin said:

Two Things: First, Painter is the equivalent of the Brewers Misiorwoski - It was made absolutely clear that he was untouchable from the Philly Front Office. Secondly - He's already had TJ surgery if you were not aware...Tait is only 23 - WAY to early to close the book on him yet. 

Fine. No deal.

Tait needs to be a Jeffers level starter in 27 or they should have traded with someone else.

 

[notoriousgod71]

4 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Isn't this the guy that beat Skenes in his first start?

Levale speigner once beat Johan Santana. Who cares about one game?

[PseudoSABR]

1 minute ago, jorgenswest said:

I know they could get a B deal next year and keep Duran. If the argument is he might get injured then they might as well trade any playoff caliber because they might be injured in the future. 

You don't know that.  Value goes down with less control and without the pressure of pennate race. 

[Vanimal46]

4 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

I have a friend from Philly and he says the Twins got screwed.

If the roles were reversed, we would be jumping for joy acquiring one of the best RP in baseball for 2.5 years for our org’s 4th and 6th ranked prospects. Especially when one of them is light years away from making MLB 

[Hubie29]

23 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

2.7 in AAA.  25 innings is the definition of SSS.

AAA means nothing. All you need to do is look at our roster now. Who from AAA has been anything to rave about?

[Rigby]

5 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

I have a friend from Philly and he says the Twins got screwed.

You have a friend in Philly? You may want to reconsider your life choices

[LA Vikes Fan]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Btw, someone said the Mets paid more in their deal? Strong disagree. 

You're right about that. The Twins got much more for Duran than the Giants did for Tyler Rogers.  

[KirbyDome89]

1 minute ago, PseudoSABR said:

You don't know that.  Value goes down with less control and without the pressure of pennate race. 

Do you think an equivalent deal was off the table this offseason? I don't. At that point why not hold out at least another 24 hours if not 4 months? 

[nicksaviking]

5 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

If there's a new owner, and if they're willing to operate at a loss for a team that is really bad the last two seasons and has a lot of work to do in order to compete. 

I think this is a B grade trade. Not incredible and with 24 hours left on the clock and no rush to trade I would have kept the lines open. Buy the thought process was good. 

As a Mets fan, I hope he blows up and completely sucks in Philly. 

I've been saying all along that we shouldn't get our hopes up about a new owner.

But if the new person is ever going to try to build good will with the fans and/or shoot for the stars, it's going to be in the first year or two.

[cjm0926]

Not sure how to feel about the trade right now. It sucks to lose a guy like Duran, but it will be years down the road until we can really evaluate the trade. Trade aside, the Twins have a lot of pitching in the upper minors to test out in the coming years, or trade from depending on the scenario.

MLB - Ryan, Lopez, Ober, SWR, Festa/Matthews

Minors - Abel, Morris, Adams, Ohl, Lewis, Raya, MacLeod, Non-Roster veterans, Prielipp, Culpepper, Klein, Hidalgo, Bowen

Pretty fair assumption most of those guys won't pan out and stick around, but should be interesting to see. Tait isn't a bad get at all, just risky considering he is multiple years away from the big leagues if everything goes right. The Twins don't really have a sure-thing future catcher in their system right now, but Olivar, Diaw and now Tait are the closest thing they may have. They've also got a few guys who could MAYBE turn out to be decent backup catchers such as Cardenas, Winkel, Baez or Cossetti.

Should be interesting to follow because who knows what the big league team will look like after tomorrow and the '26 offseason.

[tony&rodney]

Fangraphs: Tait as a 45, #5 with Abel as a 40, #13 in the Phillies system. Neither ranked in Fangraphs 200.

MLB.com: Tait as a 55, #4 with Abel as a 55, #6 in the Phillies system. Tait = 56, Abel = 92 in MLB 100.

Keith Law: Tait #4 with Abel #9 in the Phillies system. Neither ranked in Law's top 100 early or top 60 now.

I know there are other lists.

So maybe Tanner Schobel (45) and Travis Adams  (40) from a Fangraphs perspective.

MLB perspective is much better. Kaelen Culpepper and Gabriel Gonzalez.

We will all spin this later but to make this deal today without gleaning maximum value from another 20 hours of negotiations is utterly depressing. One report said it best - Dombrowski enforced his will and got exactly what he wanted. Tait is far away and Abel has an upside of a decent relief pitcher. That is how Philly felt anyway. Apparently Falvey and crew saw stars.