BREAKING: Twins Trade Jhoan Duran to Philadelphia Phillies

[bunsen82]

14 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Twins assigning Abel to AAA, not the majors. 

Still won’t take him 3 years. 

[Danchat]

4 minutes ago, ziggy said:

we don't know what goes on in the front office.

Perhaps the Philly's were the only team interested in Duran at the 2 top 100 prospect price.

Perhaps Falvey has been told he will have to slash another 25 million from next years budget.

I do think $$$ is a factor here. Duran, Jax, and Ryan are due for significant arbitration raises and paying closer salaries for Jax and Duran is not Faleys style. 

I'm sad. Duran was the most exciting player on the team. I'm glad my grandsons got to experience Durans entrance and 9th inning dominance.   

Based on the reports of the amount of interest in Duran, I imagine they had several comparable offers. I can't believe that other teams like the Dodgers and Mariners gave the Twins a sizably smaller offer than the Phillies', given how good Duran has been and the control on him. My guess is the Twins are really high on Abel compared to the other prospects they were offered on other teams. 

 

[purplesoldier4u]

24 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Does your friend have any twinsdaily-like sites that we can check to see how their fans think?

A middling 23 year old prospect and an undersized catcher who's defense is a "work in progress" and is an okay hitter? Not good, but at least they'll be cheap.

[Twins GFP]

8 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

40 IP annually??

I spitballed it.. 50-60 IP. Still not enough

[PseudoSABR]

8 minutes ago, Dman said:

I am thinking:

In 2016, the Chicago Cubs acquired Aroldis Chapman from the New York Yankees in a trade to bolster their bullpen for a World Series push. The Yankees received a package of players including top prospect Gleyber Torres, and versatile player Adam Warren. This trade is notable as it involved a star closer and a key prospect, and helped the Cubs win their first World Series in over a century

I think he was the Cubs number 1 prospect and top ten in the top 100 at the time.

Right. Once in 9 years. Torres never lived up to the billing.  Chapman was an icon at the time of this trade, I don't believe Duran is that.

[purplesoldier4u]

26 minutes ago, Dman said:

Trade Rumors seems to feel the deal is solid for the Twins.  Still Tait is no sure thing to stay behind the plate and Abel needs development for his stuff to translate.  Let's hope the Twins Dev teams are up to the task.

What makes you think they have any ability to transform anybody?

[Blyleven2011]

2 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

It's not Painter. 

A minor league catching prospect and a pitcher currently on the Phillies roster.

This front office needs to go.

2 1/2 years of control traded for a almost 19 year old catcher that really has some it's ...

Abel slated as a 3rd or 4th starter  , well Abel sounds like he is major league ready , but we should have addressed our offense with a major  league ready bat ...

Not sure how to grade this trade but right now I feel like falvey doesn't know what their plan is going forward from the deadline ...

I would have held out for painter  , duran with 2 1/2 years left , his value should of been greater than what we got ....

i guess we'll here falveys words repeatedly  , WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE  ...

Sure glad we didn't get Kepler back

[arby58]

2 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

It's not Painter. 

A minor league catching prospect and a pitcher currently on the Phillies roster.

This front office needs to go.

When the Twins traded for Duran in 2018, he was in A ball too. It took four years to get to MLB, and another year to settle in. I know that patience is hard for many fans to accept, but Tait was the Phillies #4 prospect and, according to MLB.com, #56 in the top 100 prospects in MLB this year. They had Keaschall at 42 and Kaelen Culpepper at 85, for comparison.

Meanwhile, Abel was already part of the Phillies starting pitching staff. Yes, control has been an issue, but he's still young, and he was also the #49 prospect in 2024 - not far from Emma, who was 42. They basically got what they asked for - two top 100 prospects.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Still won’t take him 3 years. 

I don't know how to make it 1000000% more clear that I was talking about the catcher?

[PseudoSABR]

15 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Matt Capps

 

I suppose at our age, 13 years is recent memory.  

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, arby58 said:

When the Twins traded for Duran in 2018, he was in A ball too. It took four years to get to MLB, and another year to settle in. I know that patience is hard for many fans to accept, but Tait was the Phillies #4 prospect and, according to MLB.com, #56 in the top 100 prospects in MLB this year. They had Keaschall at 42 and Kaelen Culpepper at 85, for comparison.

Meanwhile, Abel was already part of the Phillies starting pitching staff. Yes, control has been an issue, but he's still you, and he was also the #49 prospect in 2024 - not far from Emma, who was 42. They basically got what they asked for - two top 100 prospects.

On some sites, but not others......

[Doctor Gast]

We have to officially rename our team to MN Rockies or Twinkies. I would never buy this team now if I had an extra $1.7B lying around. Why get all these prospects if you can't develop them?

[Old Crow]

Falvey just got hornswoggled.

[USAFChief]

4 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I spitballed it.. 

You and Falvey both, it appears. 

[T.O.]

In the end isn't this just like the Paddock trade? They save 3 mil next year?

[T.O.]

3 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

 Why get all these prospects if you can't develop them?

"Ay, there's the rub"

[sweetmusicviola16]

1 minute ago, T.O. said:

In the end isn't this just like the Paddock trade? They save 3 mil next year?

Actually if Duran makes 8-10mil in his arb 2 year they  will save all of that minus whoever they pay league minimum to.

[arby58]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

On some sites, but not others......

I used MLB.com. We all know prospects are a lottery ticket, but Abel was at least already in MLB, and was starting for a stretch for a pretty good team. His AAA stats are also good this year, with a 7-2 record, 2.31 ERA 1.161 WHIP and 81 Ks in 74 IP. 

 

[tony&rodney]

6 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

Right. Once in 9 years. Torres never lived up to the billing.  Chapman was an icon at the time of this trade, I don't believe Duran is that.

Torres is still a good player. If he were a Twins, he would be their second best player. He has had a good career with over 18 WAR and closing on a 1,000 hits and 149 HR. That's pretty good.

Chapman was a rental. The Cubs gladly paid because it was their window.

Trade deadline is tomorrow. Why did the Twins take this offer now? Also, it is actually ok to keep your good players.

[TheLeviathan]

27 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Twins assigning Abel to AAA, not the majors. 

I expected him up, but maybe they just want to work with him a bit and line his rest up with the rotation slot he's going into.  

[PseudoSABR]

Just now, TheLeviathan said:

I expected him up, but maybe they just want to work with him a bit and line his rest up with the rotation slot he's going into.  

It's not like they are sending him to Rochester. 

[Dman]

23 minutes ago, purplesoldier4u said:

What makes you think they have any ability to transform anybody?

These days I don't and this trade makes me think this FO needs to go.  If you watched the Boston series pretty much all their players can run, can hit, have decent power.  Our team looks slow can't field, can't hit.  With Phili why not trade for Crawford?  I know there are some issues with the hit tool, but the kid can fly, play elite defense and has chance to be a star player that impacts games.  Instead our FO focus's on a slow running catcher that might not even be able stay at catcher for the headliner.  I can't fathom what these guys think anymore.  It just feels like they want this team to be bad.

Maybe this was the best deal they could get, but I would have done Ford with some throw in's with Seattle.  That gives them a near term catcher that looks like he can stay at catcher has proven he can hit all the way to AAA and is insurance for when Jeffers leaves when he gets too expensive. throw in some lower levels arms from Seattle the Twins can develop and I think they come out better in the end.

The Twins do a decent job developing arms.  They could likely find deals for arms with their other trades.  They should focus on things they don't have and take on less risk than a 19 year old that will likely fall out of all these top 100 lists once they realize he can't hit in AA. 

Maybe I am dead wrong and the FO will be right and they will have another mid rotation arm which would be valuable and the kid will stay at catcher and launch bombs and give me the finger when he rounds the bases.  The risk in this trade seems extremely high given that Phili is getting a nearly sure thing.  They gave up a difference maker.  I wanted a difference maker back and I am having trouble seeing that in this deal.

Edit:  More news on Abel.  If he is a mid rotation arm this is an OK deal in my book.

 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, UpstateNewYorker said:

FWIW, trade grades: https://www.si.com/mlb/jhoan-duran-trade-grades-phillies-address-roster-biggest-need

Thanks.  It's nice to get an unbiased view.

[arby58]

6 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

We have to officially rename our team to MN Rockies or Twinkies. I would never buy this team now if I had an extra $1.7B lying around. Why get all these prospects if you can't develop them?

The myopia around here. They developed Buxton, they developed Lewis (injuries are not the fault of the development staff). They developed Jeffers. They developed Wallner (and if you are going to complain, he has a 128 OPS+ for his career). They developed Ryan, they developed Duran, they developed Jax, they developed Ober, they developed Varland. Etc., etc, etc.

There are plenty of young players where the jury is still out. Books Lee is an example. They have plenty of highly rated prospects in the pipeline, including Keaschall, Culpepper, Rodriguez, Jenkins. 
 

[purplesoldier4u]

12 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Sure glad we didn't get Kepler back

I'm surprised they didn't. 😂

[LewFordLives]

10 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

I suppose at our age, 13 years is recent memory.  

Recent memory?  July 2, 2011.  He ruined my summer. I remember it as if it was yesterday.

[Twins GFP]

6 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

You and Falvey both, it appears. 

When we see people that never have a positive thing to say, I always tell my kids to be thankful they don't wake up in the morning looking at the world like those people do.

[arby58]

4 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Trade deadline is tomorrow. Why did the Twins take this offer now? Also, it is actually ok to keep your good players.

Sometimes you snooze, you lose. We are not privvy to the discussions with other teams, I assume this was the best offer they had. Teams can move on to other targets. We are seeing that this trade season. 

[glunn]

50 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

This is what selling looks like. My feathers are unruffled. I'm more pissed about the actual need for selling.

Sellers sell... This is what it looks like. 

If the Twins were buyers... they were not going to give up Jenkins. I'm not shocked that the Phillies hung on to Painter with both fists and I wouldn't be surprised if the Mariners hung on to Ford and the Dodgers hang on to Rushing. This is what selling looks like.

Now... What's next.

To win this trade... we will find out later but the Twins have to be the ones who win it. 

Trades are not won or lost when the deal is made. 

Trades are won or lost after the trade. 

If the Twins want to win this trade. Prove you all wrong. They need to develop the players they chose to acquire. 

Let's see if they can develop when it hasn't been a strong suit. 

 

Maybe Mauer could help develop the young catchers?

[tony&rodney]

10 minutes ago, arby58 said:

When the Twins traded for Duran in 2018, he was in A ball too. It took four years to get to MLB, and another year to settle in. I know that patience is hard for many fans to accept, but Tait was the Phillies #4 prospect and, according to MLB.com, #56 in the top 100 prospects in MLB this year. They had Keaschall at 42 and Kaelen Culpepper at 85, for comparison.

Meanwhile, Abel was already part of the Phillies starting pitching staff. Yes, control has been an issue, but he's still young, and he was also the #49 prospect in 2024 - not far from Emma, who was 42. They basically got what they asked for - two top 100 prospects.

I appreciate your optimism.

Fangraphs has neither in their Top 200 at the moment. The write-ups of each are damning as to their chances. Keth Law also didn't think much of either as of last March. He does not have either among his ranked prospects. Yes, there are differences between the rankings. I find MLB to be the least useful based on years of following the minor leagues.