BREAKING: Twins Trade Jhoan Duran to Philadelphia Phillies

[UK Twin]

I can't help but feel underwhelmed, mainly because it was reported that the Twins wanted Painter. However, doesn't mean that this trade won't work out. Tait has a great bat by all accounts so even if he doesn't stick at catcher he should reach MLB even if at 1B. 

As for Abel, he's got good stuff and he's only 23. Different trade scenario I know as Cruz was a rental but when we acquired Ryan he was the Rays 10th best prospect and a 7th round draft pick. He turned into a legitimate ace. He was also 25 when we got him and Abel will be 24 in August. Let's wait and see how he develops.

[UK Twin]

Reading a few pages of comments back, I do think people are overvaluing Duran a bit. First of all, he's a closer. Every offseason there are numerous closers in the FA market, once the team has a new owner shouldn't be too hard to sign a good closer. The other option is to develop a closer internally - we have plenty of hard throwing pitchers in the minor leagues who are trying their hand at being a starter. I believe Duran was one a few years ago. 

I really liked Duran, but he was always capable of losing his command and blowing a save. He rarely had 1-2-3 innings as well. He either walked someone or allowed a base hit. It didn't matter a lot of the time because he then got annoyed and blew the next hitter away most of the time but throwing 100+ isn't as rare as it once was.

[AlwaysinModeration]

i have not read all 13 pages, so I don’t know if this has been said, but “Mick Abel” is a nice complement to “Billy Amick.”  If Billy starts going by Bill or Abel gets a (Rocco) “Abelli” nickname, even better.

[Riverbrian]

7 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Target Field might as well double up on profit as a funeral home for the next 2 months. 

Creativity - Diversification. 

I love out of the box thinking. 

[Sjoski]

3 hours ago, Western SD Fan said:

This may be a sign they are very close as Falvey is trading everyone that has a contract of any value to save the Pohlads money on the way

Your spot on. 

This is what a good trade looks like.

Royals traded a rental (Chapman) and got Cole Ragans—now their ace.
Twins traded Jhoan Duran—an electric, controllable closer—and got a maybe #4 starter and an 18-year-old.

One team sold high.
The other sold out.

 

[wabene]

Did anyone on this board have a clue about what the Twins had gotten when they acquired Joe Ryan?

[Patzky]

5 hours ago, Kevin Sheehan said:

I need help with this. Jax has shown us that he's not an elite Closer. In my opinion he goes next. Then what? This year we're obviously done. Stewart? Louie? Who closes in  2026? A retreat? What is the direction? Tell us fans! I'm not asking for much. Give us a sign

Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if even if we keep Jax, Beef stew winds up closing games. We're gonna need six innings from starters at least.

[NYCTK]

34 minutes ago, Sjoski said:

Your spot on. 

This is what a good trade looks like.

Royals traded a rental (Chapman) and got Cole Ragans—now their ace.
Twins traded Jhoan Duran—an electric, controllable closer—and got a maybe #4 starter and an 18-year-old.

One team sold high.
The other sold out.

 

The Royals received a 25 year old pitcher with a 5 ERA in the majors that had never been a top 100 Prospect. You can't look at what Ragans became, have to look at what he was at the time of the trade . 

On this measuring stick, they did well. 

[notoriousgod71]

8 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if even if we keep Jax, Beef stew winds up closing games. We're gonna need six innings from starters at least.

What starters? We run bullpen games at least twice a week and that's being generous since SWR, zebby, and festa can't go more than five.

[Riverbrian]

7 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

Seriously? Are you seriously being ignorant.  We used almost the entire 2021 draft to supplement the MLB team. You are ignoring the Arreaz deal, the Gray deal, even signing Correa, even though that feels like ages ago and seems to be causing us to make some of these decisions pre-maturely.  The anti Falvey crowd is getting louder and louder and show the frustration is much more than just a return on a trade of Duran. 

I'll give you credit for standing up against a stiff wind tonight. I think you've been good balance in an unbalanced world in front of pitchforks but when you get belligerent and start calling people ignorant... you lose me. 

The entire top of the 2021 draft is elsewhere. Petty, Miller, Hajjar, Povich, CES are not in Minnesota and neither are any of the acquisitions in their deals. Gray, Margot, Mahle and Jorge Lopez. 

And technically you are therefore listing Gray twice in your list of 4 examples of front office effort. Since Gray is part of that 2021 crew. 

You are correct though... these moves feel like ages go because they were in a baseball sense of time. 

The bill for them is unfortunately being paid right now. 

I think you are also correct when you say the frustration is more than the specifics of this trade. 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

5 hours ago, Kevin Sheehan said:

I need help with this. Jax has shown us that he's not an elite Closer. In my opinion he goes next. Then what? This year we're obviously done. Stewart? Louie? Who closes in  2026? A retreat? What is the direction? Tell us fans! I'm not asking for much. Give us a sign

I need Falvey to give me a reason to renew my season package. So far, not good

[Riverbrian]

6 hours ago, Kevin Sheehan said:

I need help with this. Jax has shown us that he's not an elite Closer. In my opinion he goes next. Then what? This year we're obviously done. Stewart? Louie? Who closes in  2026? A retreat? What is the direction? Tell us fans! I'm not asking for much. Give us a sign

I'm not sure. Someone will be given the role and a new closer will enter the world, fantasy leagues will scramble to pick up the new guy in an attempt cheaply acquire saves. His agent will be excited about the sudden increase in value because graduating from holds to saves drives up value and leads to more money down the road. 

Someone will fill the role. 

 

[Patzky]

46 minutes ago, notoriousgod71 said:

What starters? We run bullpen games at least twice a week and that's being generous since SWR, zebby, and festa can't go more than five.

In a month it'll be Joe Pablo Zebby Abel Ober, with Sim as long relief.

[gman]

Tate is listed as the Twins 4th best prospect and Abel as the 6th. That could change in a month but it looks good for now. Maybe the Twins know something about Durans decline the past 2 years that others don't.

[mickster]

13 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

Wow lots of hate for a very good trade. This was the exact haul discussed many times.  I would even say an overpay. Abel is a much better pitcher than SWR. 

I agree.   We get a middle of the rotation arm, an organizational need in a young catcher.   Short term good for the Phillies, but long term I like this for the Twins.  Now just keep Jax/Varland/Stewart and you can build the pen back up.

[Bodie]

Guess we'll find out if Jax is a pitcher, or a thrower with "elite" stuff!

[bunsen82]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I'll give you credit for standing up against a stiff wind tonight. I think you've been good balance in an unbalanced world in front of pitchforks but when you get belligerent and start calling people ignorant... you lose me. 

The entire top of the 2021 draft is elsewhere. Petty, Miller, Hajjar, Povich, CES are not in Minnesota and neither are any of the acquisitions in their deals. Gray, Margot, Mahle and Jorge Lopez. 

And technically you are therefore listing Gray twice in your list of 4 examples of front office effort. Since Gray is part of that 2021 crew. 

You are correct though... these moves feel like ages go because they were in a baseball sense of time. 

The bill for them is unfortunately being paid right now. 

I think you are also correct when you say the frustration is more than the specifics of this trade. 

 

I feel ignorant is a fair statement when the claim was the front office has NEVER helped the big league team. As to the 2021 draft we still have Ohl and Debarge who still lives on from the Petty trade. 
 

My personal issue since they took the team is they have always tried to put a good product on the field. They have regularly stolen from the minors in trades to supplement the big league team and never did a proper tank. 
 

Honestly this morning I like the trade even more. Abel has 5 very good pitches. Really it comes down to control and sequencing. The Phillies seem to be very aggressive in moving up their prospects so leaving him at ASA seems like a very good idea to fine tune his repertoire and gain a little more confidence and control. As to Tait the bat is legit. The risk is staying behind the plate and my guess is the Twins feel he will or they wouldn’t have made the trade. These are the 2 best prospects traded. We still have risk they will perform but it seems like very good value for Duran. 

[bunsen82]

24 minutes ago, gman said:

Tate is listed as the Twins 4th best prospect and Abel as the 6th. That could change in a month but it looks good for now. Maybe the Twins know something about Durans decline the past 2 years that others don't.

Declining K increasing BB. Look I like Duran, he regularly induced weak contact. Personally I think he is closer to last years numbers than this years if I’m being honest. I still hope he remains a dominant closer though. I can just see where the Twins thought there may be risk that he declined in performance. 

[David HK]

I can't remember if it was Lou Nanne back in the bad old days of the North Stars, but some woeful GM had this to say about trading from behind,  "The other teams are always willing to help you out.  They all want to take out your eyeballs and put in grapes." 

[Doctor Gast]

7 hours ago, SwainZag said:

When the owners won't open the purse strings to add, what do you want to FO to do?  They won a playoff series and dropped the payroll $25M.  

Saying they got nothing of value to help us now or in the future is being extremely negative and reactionary unless you have a crystal ball.

Pohlads are stupid but they spend more than the other teams in our division & more than half the teams in MLB. The Pohlads won't give me enough money is one of many excuses that is propagated on social media by Falvey & his minions to persuade the masses. It's not about how much money you spend, it's about how you spend it. Throwing it away in FA doesn't help the cause. They gave too much $ to Donaldson that other teams didn't want to pay, they threw a lot of $ at the Paddack extention to sit around in hope later he'd show something instead of nothing, they wasted $ on so many worthless FAs we didn't need like Gallo, Accepted salary dumps like DeSclavani & Margot. We won a playoff series not because of Falvey but inspite of him. A big reason was because the players that fell into his lap.

I never said that we got nothing of value. What I said was what we got was far below of what we should have got for a impact high demand elite closer that did nothing for present situation. If I have migraine headache (fragile in SPs & catching) I don't take medicine (prospects) that might or might not help years from now. You take medicine that you know that will alleviate that problem (promising young MLB-ready players). I've had my eye on Tait for a while now, & I can tell you that he's years away from MLB & his talents don't line up to the hype. That was the best he could get (he's too incompetent) so he hopes that he'll workout, but hope doesn't cut it.

[bunsen82]

9 hours ago, Maybe Next Year said:

To hell with the purse strings argument. Last year three AL teams with lower payrolls made the playoffs. The problem isn’t with money, it is with Baldelli and his damn analytics. The absolute worst manager in all of baseball. Name one, just one, rookie who he has developed into a decent player in his 8 years. He overthinks everything. He has ZERO baseball sense. He doesn’t do anything to give confidence to his young players. It’s not the money, it’s the piece of junk we have as a manager. I can’t wait to see how these new prospects pan out. Guarantee they will never be good under Baldelli. 

Jeffers. Now I still like Lewis and Lee. I agree we haven’t seen any stars for a bat first approach in the drafts. But that also occurs when they have only drafted in the top 10 draft picks 2-3 times in the last 10 years. 

[mickster]

35 minutes ago, gman said:

Tate is listed as the Twins 4th best prospect and Abel as the 6th. That could change in a month but it looks good for now. Maybe the Twins know something about Durans decline the past 2 years that others don't.

I loved Duran, but I think his numbers are better then he actually is.   How many 9th innings did he put himself in trouble and get out of it?   Now, he did get out of many that is true - I wonder if he is only a year or two away from losing dominance?   McGill and Pagan have more saves then Duran.  Duran is     6-5, so six wins are most likely BS, and then 5 other losses.   If he converts have of those he still doesn't pass Pagan

[Sjoski]

2 hours ago, wabene said:

Did anyone on this board have a clue about what the Twins had gotten when they acquired Joe Ryan?

Comparing that trade to this one is like comparing a bowling ball to a tennis ball...the only thing they have in common is they are both round. 

[bunsen82]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

The Royals received a 25 year old pitcher with a 5 ERA in the majors that had never been a top 100 Prospect. You can't look at what Ragans became, have to look at what he was at the time of the trade . 

On this measuring stick, they did well. 

Abel is very similar to Ragans in that they both had some control issues on their first cup of coffee at the MLB level. Abel has more shine still on him than Ragans did when he was traded, but the concerns were the same.

[NYCTK]

13 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

I feel ignorant is a fair statement when the claim was the front office has NEVER helped the big league team. As to the 2021 draft we still have Ohl and Debarge who still lives on from the Petty trade. 
 

My personal issue since they took the team is they have always tried to put a good product on the field. They have regularly stolen from the minors in trades to supplement the big league team and never did a proper tank. 
 

Honestly this morning I like the trade even more. Abel has 5 very good pitches. Really it comes down to control and sequencing. The Phillies seem to be very aggressive in moving up their prospects so leaving him at ASA seems like a very good idea to fine tune his repertoire and gain a little more confidence and control. As to Tait the bat is legit. The risk is staying behind the plate and my guess is the Twins feel he will or they wouldn’t have made the trade. These are the 2 best prospects traded. We still have risk they will perform but it seems like very good value for Duran. 

Ignorant is a very respectful insult. And almost always accurate. 

Ignoramus is one of my favorite names, second only to dingus. 

13 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Declining K increasing BB. Look I like Duran, he regularly induced weak contact. Personally I think he is closer to last years numbers than this years if I’m being honest. I still hope he remains a dominant closer though. I can just see where the Twins thought there may be risk that he declined in performance. 

This year's numbers are somewhat inflated by an outlier HR/FB rate. That GB rate is back to incredible though. 

I think selling was the right idea. I think the return is good, but I do understand the disappointment. You'd have hoped the pivot from Painter (was never happening) could have brought in one more high potential prospect in their organizational 10-15 range, but the top of the trade looks pretty good. good. 

Solid B. 

[NYCTK]

8 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

did nothing for present situation.

News flash. This team stinks and will again next year. Duran would have been paid a proper closer salary of $12-15 million in 2027 so it's entirely reasonable to trade him now. 

[Sjoski]

10 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Name one, just one, rookie who he has developed into a decent player in his 8 years

Lewis? Maybe.

Ober, Jax...  yes.

Two others come to mind. 

Arraez and Duran. And thats why it bites.

Even when they do develop a great player, like Arraez or Duran…
They don’t keep them.

They flip them for "value" and "balance," usually involving pitching, which, ironically, is the very thing Falvey was supposed to fix internally.

* Arraez wasn't selected by Falvey,  but he was developed. 

[Sjoski]

2 hours ago, NYCTK said:

The Royals received a 25 year old pitcher with a 5 ERA in the majors that had never been a top 100 Prospect. You can't look at what Ragans became, have to look at what he was at the time of the trade . 

On this measuring stick, they did well. 

Your forgetting a huge component of why this trade is so bad. Its riddled with risk. 

The measuring stick is Chapman vs Duran.  An aging rental player vs a 27 year old with 2+ years of control.

Why the heck do you think Philly fans are peeing their pants. 

[MinnInPa]

Twins got fleeced... top 5 closer for what ?? a 19 yr old catcher 5 yrs away ?? and a mid rotation guy?? how about someone that can hit and help now !!

[Major League Ready]

11 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

For the record, Sports Illustrated is now an AI article generated hub. This is the picture of the “author” from that article. He looks like he gets carded at any bar he goes to. 

Fair enough.  If we look at other writers that offered an opinion, what do we see.  I found 3 articles grading the trade.  The Twins got two Bs and an A-.  Not stellar but a long way from the gloom and doom here.  The point remains it's good to look around for opinions that are not from fans.  

MPLS Star Trubune

---

The Athletic

Clutch Points