Can Austin Martin Become a Trusted Center Field Option for the Twins?

[Nick Nelson]

The viability of Austin Martin as a center fielder is a key topic heading into this season. How likely is he to hold his own if needed at one of the most demanding, difference-making defensive positions on the field?

Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

At the end of a recent Bobby Nightengale notebook article in the Star Tribune was this tidbit: "Austin Martin could see a lot of playing time in center field during spring training, manager Rocco Baldelli said, to become more acclimated to the position."

This is not terribly surprising, given that Martin made more starts in center (33) than anywhere else as a rookie, but as Nightengale points out, his tendency to get slow jumps led to substandard defensive performance.

“He’s a very good athlete,” said Baldelli in the piece. “I think first exposure in the big leagues, his work in the outfield probably could’ve been better than it was, but all the ability is there.”

In a small sampling of 277 innings as center fielder last year, Martin's defensive metrics were beyond brutal. Per FanGraphs, his Outs Above Average (OAA) was -4, and his UZR/150 was -15.5. Among the 60 MLB players who spent more than 200 innings in CF, only two had a worse OAA or a worse UZR/150. 

So yes, Baldelli's suggestion that Martin "could've been better" is well validated. But there are two other parts of his quote that I think are worth considering.

One: it was Martin's first exposure to the big leagues. Not only was he trying to get comfortable in the majors, but also in center field. The position is not necessarily natural for him. He spent much more time in the infield during his time in college and the minors. Martin likely struggled to make good reads and quickly react in part due to a lack of consistent reps to build muscle memory. So a commitment to giving him plenty of action there during spring training could play dividends.

Second: all the ability is there. He is indeed a good athlete. He runs well and he's got a solid arm. Martin had developed a pretty good rep as a center fielder in the minors, posting numerous highlight-reel catches, and we saw some occasional glimpses of that play-making pizzazz during his time in the majors. They were not frequent, and there were some ugly moments in between, but again: he was learning in the ropes.

 

Martin successfully establishing himself as a trusted option in center field is of critical importance, for both him individually and the team as a whole. 

The upside of Martin's career – the difference between a fringe big-leaguer or valued 10-year mainstay – could well hinge on this deciding factor. Although there are some reasons to believe he can tap into another level offensively (especially if he can find a bit more swing speed), Martin seems to project as an average hitter at best. Enough discipline to hold his own, but not enough power to be a threat.

That's a workable hitting profile for someone who can capably play center field. For a guy who is exclusively a left fielder, and maybe a useable second baseman? Tougher sell. 

 

From a team depth standpoint, the Twins desperately need Martin to be an option for them in center field, unless additions are on the way. Byron Buxton started his second-most games ever at the position (87) last year and Baldelli still needed to find another CF starter for 75 contests. With Manuel Margot out of the picture, the 40-man depth behind Buxton is currently Willi Castro, DaShawn Keirsey Jr. and Martin. 

Castro is also not a good defensive center fielder – his metrics were nearly on par with Martin last year – and he's got less potential to improve there. Besides, Castro can hardly be viewed as a backup when he's starting elsewhere in the lineup almost every day. 

So then you've got Keirsey, who arguably could be a rock-solid fourth outfielder but is 27 with six games of MLB experience. Keirsey is a late-blooming former fourth-round draft pick who was never a top prospect, and who was passed over by every team in the Rule 5 last offseason. Martin is a former top-five draft pick, targeted by the Twins as a key return in the José Berríos trade of 2021. It seems clear who the Twins would like to see emerge as Buxton's preferred backup, and who's got the most long-term potential, but Martin's got to go out there and prove he's up to it.

It's sounding like he'll get that chance in spring training. Even with Buxton apparently feeling as good as he has heading into a season for some time, the Twins will surely aim to keep his workload light in exhibition, so there should be ample opportunity for Martin to acclimate. Can he show enough growth to earn the team's faith? Much is at stake.

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[NYCTK]

Trusted? Like, I assume in how you can tell him something in confidence?

Otherwise the answer is an obvious no. 

[terrydactyls]

Once again.  Can he?  Of course he can.  Will he?  That would be a good topic to discuss.

[Riverbrian]

It's a tough spot for Rocco because Max Kepler is no longer here to tell Rocco that he won't play CF. 

Tough Tough Problem.

Hey... That defensive wizard Gilberto Celestino is looking for work at age 25. 

 

[CRF]

He's as good an option as any right now. They won't go out and sign an outfielder. 

[HrbieFan]

Martin doesn't need more bat speed, he just needs to get on base more.  I'd be fine with him turning into Arraez at the plate, we have enough guys that think they are Judge

[MinnInPa]

nope ..ride w Kiersey...i believe in him

[mluebker]

Another season, another attempt to fill a semi-vacant position with a guy who’s not good playing there.

[Doctor Gast]

Is Martin our 1st option at CF? The answer is a clear no. Right now he should be our #4 behind Buck, Keirsey & Castro, which is very good depth. If Martin had the power that most Twins fans expected, they'd be jumping up & down with joy with his fielding. But since he doesn't, many fans look at him with a much more negative lens. They tend to overlook plays like the one shown & focus on nitpicking on inexperienced rookie mistakes basically learning a new position at the MLB level. Martin's ability & potential to get on base & not striking out. baserunning, taking & stealing that extra base & fire that sparks rallies (something we need more of). More than makes up for any lack of power.

Baldelli's decision to play Martin a lot at CF during the spring training is good. With more training, he could rank higher than Castro at CF. IMO he can be our lead-off hitter, Last season his splits were pretty equal, actually hitting a little better against RHPs. Therefore I'd also give him some time at 1B & have him ahead of Gasper. During the regular season, I don't see him playing a lot of CF, mostly 2B & LF.

 

[mikelink45]

No - time to move on - Martin is not a good fielder, he is not a good base stealer, he is not an on-base machine and he is not a power hitter.  So why are we obsessed with him?

[Trov]

If you give Martin regular reps in CF he has the athletic ability to be out there but he needs the reps to get the right reads and jumps.  The hardest thing for CF is getting the right reads and jumps.  If you cannot do that you will miss so many balls no matter how fast you are.  The only way to do that is to get the reps.  I would put him out for every BP, and every other chance you can get him real reps. 

[NYCTK]

5 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

...inexperienced rookie mistakes basically learning a new position...

I just don't understand this myth that has someone taken grasp here. He'd played 1000+ innings in the OF in his career before reaching the majors, mostly in CF. At what point is someone no longer learning a new position? 

 

[laloesch]

10 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

No - time to move on - Martin is not a good fielder, he is not a good base stealer, he is not an on-base machine and he is not a power hitter.  So why are we obsessed with him?

Because its anything to justify the terrible trade that sent Berrios to Toronto.

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, Trov said:

If you give Martin regular reps in CF he has the athletic ability to be out there but he needs the reps to get the right reads and jumps.  The hardest thing for CF is getting the right reads and jumps.  If you cannot do that you will miss so many balls no matter how fast you are.  The only way to do that is to get the reps.  I would put him out for every BP, and every other chance you can get him real reps. 

Is this team developing rookies or competing for a pennant? Giving a person reps hoping they turn into a better player is what non-contenders do. Better yet, that's what AAA is for.

The Twins are placing several bad bets on players who have low upside even if the bet pays off. High risk, low reward.

[JD-TWINS]

6 minutes ago, laloesch said:

Because its anything to justify the terrible trade that sent Berrios to Toronto.

SWR??

[thelanges5]

7 minutes ago, laloesch said:

Because its anything to justify the terrible trade that sent Berrios to Toronto.

SWR makes the Berrios trade a good one. Martin would be icing on the cake. 

[NYCTK]

3 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

SWR makes the Berrios trade a good one. Martin would be icing on the cake. 

Even better than that, you need only look at the 2022 Season in which Berrios had a 5.23 ERA over 170 IP. 

[laloesch]

6 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Even better than that, you need only look at the 2022 Season in which Berrios had a 5.23 ERA over 170 IP. 

One season does not make a trade a good one.  Berrios has been at this a lot longer than SWR.  

[laloesch]

12 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

SWR??

One season vs. 11?

[Major League Ready]

It's not likely to be needed of him because Rodriquez will be the back-up CF before the half-way point of this season.

[NYCTK]

11 minutes ago, laloesch said:

One season does not make a trade a good one.  Berrios has been at this a lot longer than SWR.  

There was only one season of control left for Berrios. 

[DJL44]

10 minutes ago, laloesch said:

One season does not make a trade a good one.  Berrios has been at this a lot longer than SWR.  

A little more than one season of Berrios is all the Twins traded away, a well-paid season in his last year of arbitration. He would have walked as a free agent after that.

[jud6312]

27 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Is this team developing rookies or competing for a pennant? Giving a person reps hoping they turn into a better player is what non-contenders do. Better yet, that's what AAA is for.

 

Neither, probably. 

[jmlease1]

Martin's terrible fielding last season was surprising to me, because all the reports from the minors were that he was a good OF, who could handle CF and might end up being a plus in LF because of his range. And he was bad defensively last season. There's no way around it, and I'm a guy who likes Martin and believes in him. 

The jump from AAA to MLB is a big one and it's where a lot of talented players stumble. This feels like a bit of a make-or-break season for Martin: get on base, play good defense and carve out a role, or get passed by guys coming up through the system (Rodriguez, Keaschall if he doesn't stick on the dirt, and Jenkins are all making their way). Maybe the different parks and sizes and lights messed him up. Maybe he never got comfortable anywhere. Maybe he didn't put in the work. Maybe he's just not that good. Maybe it was a fluke (which does happen with defensive stats, but Martin didn't pass the eye test last season either).

He has the physical tools to do it. But he's not going to get there with sloppy defense and an OPS under .700. With the utter failure of the team to do anything to improve the team so far, he's got a window with Rodriguez coming off surgery and only having a few ABs in AAA, Keaschall coming off TJ and never playing above AA, Jenkins likely to start in AA, Kiersey not impressing at the plate in his cup of coffee, and helman rarely being healthy. But he needs to play much much better defensively, make more contact, and get on base more.

[Heiny]

Let's not forget that Berrios wanted out.  We were going to lose him one way or another so the trade still looks good to me.

[NYCTK]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Is this team developing rookies or competing for a pennant? Giving a person reps hoping they turn into a better player is what non-contenders do. Better yet, that's what AAA is for.

The Twins are placing several bad bets on players who have low upside even if the bet pays off. High risk, low reward.

Not to mention, at a certain point the blame is on the player. Austin Martin has been at least a part time OF since he started playing collegiate ball, with the exception of one of those 3 seasons. He hasn't been able to get OF reps in during those 6 years? He busy or something? 

Now that he's 26 we're supposed to believe he'll finally be able to put it together? I said last season that he'll be lucky to get 1000 career PAs and I'm sticking with that. He has two more option years, so he's gonna bounce up and down and then end up on the Long Island Ducks or something like that. 

He's Luis Guillorme but without the glove. 

[Stew]

Only an ok option as a backup.. it won't matter in two years Buxton won't be a twin. We will have Jenkins starting in cf.

[bean5302]

Austin Martin doesn't seem to have the defensive instincts to play at a high level. His physical tools are stretched in center and his bat is below MLB average because he doesn't barrel up balls. He's like Arraez with less pop and 4x the K rate.

Can Martin become a trusted CF option with the Twins? Depends on what you consider "trusted." Trusted to technically play the game at league minimum and fill in for 100-150 PA a year? Sure. Trusted to be a starting caliber CF the Twins need because Buxton will only play 60-80 games in center? That's beyond Martin's ceiling, I'm afraid.

[TwinsDr2021]

15 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Now that he's 26 we're supposed to believe he'll finally be able to put it together?

yes, yes we are, I mean that is the thought on Keirsey, Hellman, Gasper(remember Nick Gordon), and all the others players older than 25 that have figured out a position yet.

[Jocko87]

For the same reasons in the bat speed article we can reasonably assume that a former #5 overall pick and someone who dominated college baseball can be a functional major leaguer.

He's thinking, not playing. He wouldn't be the first guy who was overwhelmed by the big leagues in his first year.  In fact, it's the most common reaction to the majors.

He didn't play 1000 innings of centerfield with Rocco (great centerfielder) and the Minnesota Twins (who have a fairly decent history with centerfield) thinking he could be a darn good centerfielder, to suddenly be ready to be put out to pasture.

Is he going to be fantastic? Probably not, but he can certainly be functional.

Just make mistakes at full speed.