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Posted

The Minnesota Twins and San Diego Padres have had equally quiet offseasons, but a recent report suggests the two could tango in what might be a blockbuster deal.

Image courtesy of Vázquez: © Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images; Cease: © David Frerker-Imagn Images

Dan Hayes and Dennis Lin, both of The Athletic, are reporting that the Twins and Padres “have spoken about a potential trade that would send Christian Vázquez to San Diego.”

While a deal isn’t imminent, it is worth noting that this isn’t the first time the Padres have expressed interest in adding the veteran backstop to their club. In fact, they were one of the suitors competing against the Twins for his services two years ago, before he agreed to a three-year, $30-million pact. Despite talks slowing down, I would anticipate the two sides continue to work toward a deal, considering the Padres' need for a primary catcher and the lack of suitable options on the free agent market.

While trading Vázquez has been a topic frequently discussed on Twins Daily, the sentiment has generally suggested that he would be dealt as more of a salary dump. On the contrary, Hayes and Lin’s report suggests that the Padres see the 34-year-old as a viable primary option behind the plate. Currently, the Padres have Luis Campusano and Brett Sullivan as the two catchers on their 40-man roster, but also signed Martín Maldanado to a minor-league deal in mid-January. Campusano got the bulk of the reps in 2024, but carried a .642 OPS and produced -0.5 fWAR in 91 games. Sullivan and Maldonado, who appeared in seven and 48 games respectively in 2024, aren’t expected to be productive contributors moving forward. For a team trying to remain a playoff contender and compete against the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Padres are even more motivated to shore up one of the most important positions on the diamond. So, if the Padres are actually interested in Vázquez, then what’s in it for the Twins?

Dylan Cease. That’s what.

No, seriously. Dylan Cease. Well, maybe.

According to Hayes and Lin’s report, “the Twins would like to reallocate resources and are among the teams with interest in Dylan Cease.” Cease, who is set to be a free agent following the 2025 season, will make $13.75 million this year and is coming off one of the best years of his career. Across a career-high 189 ⅓ innings, the righty posted a 3.10 FIP with elite strikeout and walk rates and garnered both MVP and Cy Young votes. Since he spent parts of five seasons with the Chicago White Sox, the Twins brass is overly familiar with the 29-year-old's arsenal and skillset. It should go without saying that any deal would require more parts than Vázquez and Cease, and the Twins would likely have to send one of their big-league starters (likely one of their pre-arbitration arms) in any trade package that would net them Cease. For reference, the Padres acquired Cease by sending the White Sox a top-100 pitching prospect, two top-10 organizational prospects, and a replacement-level reliever. Of course, the White Sox organization is in a completely different position than the Twins, but that gives you an idea of what it would cost for the Twins to nab the former sixth-round pick.

From a financial perspective, these two teams are an interesting fit. The Twins' self-imposed salary ceiling and potential sale have stopped the team from adding salary. On the other side, the Padres are currently projected to be above the luxury tax threshold, and they're expected to shed salary. Meanwhile, family members of the late owner, Peter Seidler, are in the midst of a legal dispute, further complicating things. Hayes and Lin go on to report that finances are one thing holding up this deal, as the two sides can’t agree on how much of Vázquez’s salary San Diego will absorb. The two sides make a tricky fit, unless a third team gets involved to facilitate things.

Acquiring Cease would improve an already good starting rotation for the Twins, even if it cost them one of Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, David Festa, or Zebby Matthews. Cease is a clear upgrade over any of those names. That said, the Twins reportedly aren’t the only party interested in acquiring Cease. The longer they’re in a stalemate with the Padres, the less likely it becomes they will be the team to acquire him in a deal. 


Do you think the Twins should do what it takes to acquire Cease?


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Posted

I'm not interested in one year of Cease for Ryan or Ober (both of whom are proven starters with far more team control), as he isn't that much better that he makes the Twins a World Series contender. Even Festa would be hard to swallow. When Chicago dealt him, he had two years of team control, and now it is half that, so the 'haul' in return should be less. Besides, the Padres need a catcher. I'd suggest a couple of lower level prospects plus Vasquez.

Posted

The price SD paid Chicago a few years ago.  Do you know how many years of control SD was getting at the time?  The price to acquire him should depend on that.

I don't know if I'd want to trade Ober or Ryan for 1 year of Cease.  I'd also be hesitant to trade Festa for 1 year but any of the other pitchers at AAA I'd be ok trading depending on what the remainder of the trade looked like.

Posted
14 minutes ago, Matthew Lenz said:

The Minnesota Twins and San Diego Padres have had equally quiet offseasons, but a recent report suggests the two could tango in what might be a blockbuster deal.

photo-collage.jpeg.049e070559e3b09f25570fd553222f9b.jpeg
Image courtesy of Vázquez: © Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images; Cease: © David Frerker-Imagn Images

Dan Hayes and Dennis Lin, both of The Athletic, are reporting that the Twins and Padres “have spoken about a potential trade that would send Christian Vázquez to San Diego.”

While a deal isn’t imminent, it is worth noting that this isn’t the first time the Padres have expressed interest in adding the veteran backstop to their club. In fact, they were one of the suitors competing against the Twins for his services two years ago, before he agreed to a three-year, $30-million pact. Despite talks slowing down, I would anticipate the two sides continue to work toward a deal, considering the Padres' need for a primary catcher and the lack of suitable options on the free agent market.

While trading Vázquez has been a topic frequently discussed on Twins Daily, the sentiment has generally suggested that he would be dealt as more of a salary dump. On the contrary, Hayes and Lin’s report suggests that the Padres see the 34-year-old as a viable primary option behind the plate. Currently, the Padres have Luis Campusano and Brett Sullivan as the two catchers on their 40-man roster, but also signed Martín Maldanado to a minor-league deal in mid-January. Campusano got the bulk of the reps in 2024, but carried a .642 OPS and produced -0.5 fWAR in 91 games. Sullivan and Maldonado, who appeared in seven and 48 games respectively in 2024, aren’t expected to be productive contributors moving forward. For a team trying to remain a playoff contender and compete against the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Padres are even more motivated to shore up one of the most important positions on the diamond. So, if the Padres are actually interested in Vázquez, then what’s in it for the Twins?

Dylan Cease. That’s what.

No, seriously. Dylan Cease. Well, maybe.

According to Hayes and Lin’s report, “the Twins would like to reallocate resources and are among the teams with interest in Dylan Cease.” Cease, who is set to be a free agent following the 2025 season, will make $13.75 million this year and is coming off one of the best years of his career. Across a career-high 189 ⅓ innings, the righty posted a 3.10 FIP with elite strikeout and walk rates and garnered both MVP and Cy Young votes. Since he spent parts of five seasons with the Chicago White Sox, the Twins brass is overly familiar with the 29-year-old's arsenal and skillset. It should go without saying that any deal would require more parts than Vázquez and Cease, and the Twins would likely have to send one of their big-league starters (likely one of their pre-arbitration arms) in any trade package that would net them Cease. For reference, the Padres acquired Cease by sending the White Sox a top-100 pitching prospect, two top-10 organizational prospects, and a replacement-level reliever. Of course, the White Sox organization is in a completely different position than the Twins, but that gives you an idea of what it would cost for the Twins to nab the former sixth-round pick.

From a financial perspective, these two teams are an interesting fit. The Twins' self-imposed salary ceiling and potential sale have stopped the team from adding salary. On the other side, the Padres are currently projected to be above the luxury tax threshold, and they're expected to shed salary. Meanwhile, family members of the late owner, Peter Seidler, are in the midst of a legal dispute, further complicating things. Hayes and Lin go on to report that finances are one thing holding up this deal, as the two sides can’t agree on how much of Vázquez’s salary San Diego will absorb. The two sides make a tricky fit, unless a third team gets involved to facilitate things.

Acquiring Cease would improve an already good starting rotation for the Twins, even if it cost them one of Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, David Festa, or Zebby Matthews. Cease is a clear upgrade over any of those names. That said, the Twins reportedly aren’t the only party interested in acquiring Cease. The longer they’re in a stalemate with the Padres, the less likely it becomes they will be the team to acquire him in a deal. 


Do you think the Twins should do what it takes to acquire Cease?

 

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NO!

Posted
Quote

Twins' self-imposed

Can this phrase die already? Do the Padres not have such "self imposed" payroll limits? 

As for the topic, it's really hard to see this matching up and including Cease.  I just can't see the Twins taking on salary in a position of strength when it would seem like that money needs spent elsewhere.  Losing a high potential young starter to do it, even for one year of an ace, is quite a high price.

Considering the main drivers for both sides are their umm, financial constraints, who takes on salary?  Cease and Vazquez are almost a wash money wise.

If it's a pure baseball move, I really like it if they can stay away from the top 7 ish prospects and Festa. Preller has a reputation for winning these things simply with high activity but I'm not sure it pans out with major leaguers.

Posted

I could see trading Vasquez, Paddack, and a good pitching or hitting prospect along with cash for Cease and a LH reliever like Jacob or Morejon. The relievers are younger and with more control. We get the younger reliever and a year of Cease, they get a catcher and Paddack for this year and a starting pitcher with upside. Twins eat half to 2/3 of the Vasquez salary so they dump $10.5-$12.5m and pick up $13.5-$15m. I wouldn't include Festa, Matthews or SWR, but Morris, Lewis, and  Raya would all be potentially available. Would be willing to part with a hitter instead, not in addition, if that's what the Pads want since most of their good prospects are pitchers. The hitter couldn't be Jenkins, Emma, or Keaschall but anyone else is available, including Martin, Keirsey, and Helman. Also would be willing to consider more than 1 prospect if they are farther down the list in quality. Would love the prospect to be Varland but I don't think he has that kind of value unless combined with someone else.   

Posted

Not against a move, but any trade for Cease would need to require a contract extension as part of the deal.  Any pitcher not named Lopez, Ryan, or Ober should be available.  Only untouchable prospect IMO is Jenkins, but Vasquez, SWR, and a #10-15 prospect should get this deal done.

That being said, a move like this can't be done by itself.  A commitment of salary for this caliber of pitcher needs accompanying moves to improve the team.  Why make a move like this if you aren't really making a push to be successful?

Posted
17 minutes ago, Rufus said:

All that to get Cease on an expiring contract?  Really?  Maybe if you're looking to spin off on a deadline deal.  But wow that's pretty much selling the farm

Hardly. That leaves Jenkins, Rodriguez, Keaschall, as top 100 prospects and then there's younger prospects like Culpepper and Soto who are highly rated.

Posted

The idea of getting Cease is very interesting, but the idea of including Vazquez is such a deal doesn't make a ton of sense. I realize that part of taking on Cease's $13M is getting rid of money and Vazquez is a prime candidate, but losing him leaves us pretty thin at catcher and while I have confidence that Jeffers can handle a little more workload and do a great job with the pitching staff, what happens if his incredible run of health comes to an end? Things get real scary after that. 

We would be a team build on pitching with nobody to catch the pitches from them.

If we were to acquire Cease, I'd much rather smooth out the salaries (perhaps in a separate move with different teams) by trading Castro and Paddack. I feel like we can backfill both of those spots with competence far more easily than catcher. 

As for what I would give up...

Any pitcher not named Lopez, Ober, Ryan, and Festa 

+

Prielipp (who Preller might view as a high upside play)

+

A low minors prospect of SD's choosing in the 10-20 range

+

One other 25+ ranked prospect if necessary. 

 

Posted
48 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Not against a move, but any trade for Cease would need to require a contract extension as part of the deal.  Any pitcher not named Lopez, Ryan, or Ober should be available.  Only untouchable prospect IMO is Jenkins, but Vasquez, SWR, and a #10-15 prospect should get this deal done.

That being said, a move like this can't be done by itself.  A commitment of salary for this caliber of pitcher needs accompanying moves to improve the team.  Why make a move like this if you aren't really making a push to be successful?

Yeah, but Cease says no, so it's sort of like when I was a kid and wanted a pony.

Posted
1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I could see trading Vasquez, Paddack, and a good pitching or hitting prospect along with cash for Cease and a LH reliever like Jacob or Morejon. The relievers are younger and with more control. We get the younger reliever and a year of Cease, they get a catcher and Paddack for this year and a starting pitcher with upside. Twins eat half to 2/3 of the Vasquez salary so they dump $10.5-$12.5m and pick up $13.5-$15m. I wouldn't include Festa, Matthews or SWR, but Morris, Lewis, and  Raya would all be potentially available. Would be willing to part with a hitter instead, not in addition, if that's what the Pads want since most of their good prospects are pitchers. The hitter couldn't be Jenkins, Emma, or Keaschall but anyone else is available, including Martin, Keirsey, and Helman. Also would be willing to consider more than 1 prospect if they are farther down the list in quality. Would love the prospect to be Varland but I don't think he has that kind of value unless combined with someone else.   

That is pretty much take as well.  Pad's get a veteran pitcher in return in Paddack they'll want the money to be neutral so Twins will have to pay down some salary.  They'll also want want a young pitcher close to ready to help them this year for depth so looking at Matthews, Morris, Maybe Lewis which will hurt as those guys will be cost controlled for 5 years most likely. But they'll need that to cover the comp pick they would get if they kept him (although given their payroll situation not sure if they would get a 1st or 2nd).  They might want a lower level flyer as well.

I guess we'll have to wait and see how it all works out but I like your approach on this one.  Not sure if I love this deal for just one year of Cease but that would be a formidable rotation for this year.

Posted

Makes absolutely no sense, so why am I scared? We don't need Cease, How does trading off $10M for $13.75M helps our budget? Padres could use Vazquez but they are in better shape than us in the catching department, W/O Vazquez our MLB catching depth is Jeffers + ZERO. That leaves Jeffers with catching 100%. How long will he last? But wait Falvey has snaggled Brandon Venezuela away from them. After Jeffers that leaves 0+0+0+0= that equals ZERO. If they trade Vazquez, the season is over. Why can't Falvey take catching seriously?

Posted

I thought the initial reports about Vazquez were more speculating about Cease as opposed to being rooted in fact. I'd be all for it. I just think this is a case of a speculative piece of journalism being aggregated. Vazquez to the Padres? Sure. More than feasible. But Cease's involvement? I'm not buying it.

Posted

I had the thought that AJ Preller gets a lot of press for being this great dynamic trader but does it actually pay off in the major leagues?  This is a damning list, AJ Preller is actually actively bad at this.  I had totally forgotten the Trea Turner as PTBNL one year after drafting him in the 1st round. 

Get him Derek!

https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/1348g0n/introducing_the_allpreller_trade_team/

Also a good list to refer to when we want our guys to just do something. 

 

Posted
36 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I had the thought that AJ Preller gets a lot of press for being this great dynamic trader but does it actually pay off in the major leagues?  This is a damning list, AJ Preller is actually actively bad at this.  I had totally forgotten the Trea Turner as PTBNL one year after drafting him in the 1st round. 

Get him Derek!

https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/1348g0n/introducing_the_allpreller_trade_team/

Also a good list to refer to when we want our guys to just do something. 

 

Oof.  And AMEN.  Let’s not make trades for the sake of churn.  You’re going to lose some trades.  It’s a fact of life.  But  this list is frightening!

Posted

To the people who are against trading even a low level pitching prospect like Festa for one year of Cease, I don't think you understand just how good he is. He would immediately step in and be the ace. He would give this team legitimacy in competing for this year, and trading Vazquez + prospect pitcher + top 15 prospect is an easy yes. The twins recent track record suggests any young starting pitching prospect has a much more likely path to the middle of the bullpen then they do as a remotely successful SP.

Posted
1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I agree with this take.  Including Cease is a round peg in a square hole fit-wise as we have a nice rotation at this point with strong prospects in the pipeline.  We would be making our catching position weaker to fill a strength in the rotation and probably not saving any money which is the focal point of trading Vasquez.  Doesn't make sense to me.

re: Square peg / round hole

Yes. But that presumes the F.O.'s goal is what many of us are assuming it is... Limp to the regular season with a perfectly decent team. Get a new owner. If we do something in 2025, great. But otherwise focus on 2026. I think many of us are assuming that what the Twins are going to do.

But what if that assumption is wrong. What if Falvey is like "screw that." What if Falvey looks at the AL and thinks "damn... that's pretty weak." And he also realizes, with a new owner, he needs to make a good first impression and his job isn't really guaranteed beyond 2025. Maybe ownership has OK'ed $140M as the payroll and Falvey is trying to maximize the chance that $140M can lead to 2025 success?

Posted
1 hour ago, Brandon27 said:

I give them Vazquez,Gonzalez,winokur and schobel for cease and mlb ready pitching prospects 

Unless they're making a complete 180, SD isn't trading for minor leaguers. 

Even with the haul of players they got for Soto last year, four of them were already at the MLB level and the fifth made his debut last year (after immediately being traded FOR Cease).

My bet: SD is asking for Vazquez and Duran. Right now the teams are haggling over another piece for MN vs salary relief.

Posted
1 hour ago, Brett said:

Vazquez and one of SWR/Festa/Matthews for Cease. Done. Somebody get me AJ’s number.

SWR is a proven MLB pitcher. Not giving him up for one year of Cease. Festa has huge upside - again, no deal. Maybe Matthews.

Are the Twins really a WS candidate in 2025? I''m not giving up team control for young promising arms for one year unless that is the case.

Posted

NOOOOOOOOOOOO!   

Why trade one (or more) of our top prospects, with whom we have several seasons of control, for one year of Cease?

We should Cease such thinking.  

Our biggest need is a righthanded hitting outfielder/first baseman.  Obviously it would have to be affordable, someone such as Mark Canha.  Oh wait, he's available?  Really?

 

 

Posted
Quote

among the teams with interest in Dylan Cease

As should be the case, if the Padres are hinting that they would part with him.

The Twins aren't going to win a bidding war using any conceivable prospect capital, and Vazquez is nowhere near enough of an inducement.  I'm giving this Twins-specific trade rumor little attention.

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