Report: Minnesota Twins, San Diego Padres Have Had Conversations Around Christian Vázquez, Dylan Cease

Love to have Cease on the team.  Zero chance I trade Ryan/Ober/Festa/Matthews for one year of a pitcher that they could all become.  If it can be Paddack, Vasquez and a lower level prospect, I’m in.  

I'm not interested in one year of Cease for Ryan or Ober (both of whom are proven starters with far more team control), as he isn't that much better that he makes the Twins a World Series contender. Even Festa would be hard to swallow. When Chicago dealt him, he had two years of team control, and now it is half that, so the 'haul' in return should be less. Besides, the Padres need a catcher. I'd suggest a couple of lower level prospects plus Vasquez.

The White Sox gave up that much for Cease when he had 2 years of control remaining. What goes for him now with only one season of control wouldn’t theoretically be as high a return. 
Man would he look good here

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Twins' self-imposed

Can this phrase die already? Do the Padres not have such "self imposed" payroll limits? 

As for the topic, it's really hard to see this matching up and including Cease.  I just can't see the Twins taking on salary in a position of strength when it would seem like that money needs spent elsewhere.  Losing a high potential young starter to do it, even for one year of an ace, is quite a high price.

Considering the main drivers for both sides are their umm, financial constraints, who takes on salary?  Cease and Vazquez are almost a wash money wise.

If it's a pure baseball move, I really like it if they can stay away from the top 7 ish prospects and Festa. Preller has a reputation for winning these things simply with high activity but I'm not sure it pans out with major leaguers.

I could see trading Vasquez, Paddack, and a good pitching or hitting prospect along with cash for Cease and a LH reliever like Jacob or Morejon. The relievers are younger and with more control. We get the younger reliever and a year of Cease, they get a catcher and Paddack for this year and a starting pitcher with upside. Twins eat half to 2/3 of the Vasquez salary so they dump $10.5-$12.5m and pick up $13.5-$15m. I wouldn't include Festa, Matthews or SWR, but Morris, Lewis, and  Raya would all be potentially available. Would be willing to part with a hitter instead, not in addition, if that's what the Pads want since most of their good prospects are pitchers. The hitter couldn't be Jenkins, Emma, or Keaschall but anyone else is available, including Martin, Keirsey, and Helman. Also would be willing to consider more than 1 prospect if they are farther down the list in quality. Would love the prospect to be Varland but I don't think he has that kind of value unless combined with someone else.   

The idea of getting Cease is very interesting, but the idea of including Vazquez is such a deal doesn't make a ton of sense. I realize that part of taking on Cease's $13M is getting rid of money and Vazquez is a prime candidate, but losing him leaves us pretty thin at catcher and while I have confidence that Jeffers can handle a little more workload and do a great job with the pitching staff, what happens if his incredible run of health comes to an end? Things get real scary after that. 

We would be a team build on pitching with nobody to catch the pitches from them.

If we were to acquire Cease, I'd much rather smooth out the salaries (perhaps in a separate move with different teams) by trading Castro and Paddack. I feel like we can backfill both of those spots with competence far more easily than catcher. 

As for what I would give up...

Any pitcher not named Lopez, Ober, Ryan, and Festa 

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Prielipp (who Preller might view as a high upside play)

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A low minors prospect of SD's choosing in the 10-20 range

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One other 25+ ranked prospect if necessary. 

48 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Not against a move, but any trade for Cease would need to require a contract extension as part of the deal.  Any pitcher not named Lopez, Ryan, or Ober should be available.  Only untouchable prospect IMO is Jenkins, but Vasquez, SWR, and a #10-15 prospect should get this deal done.

That being said, a move like this can't be done by itself.  A commitment of salary for this caliber of pitcher needs accompanying moves to improve the team.  Why make a move like this if you aren't really making a push to be successful?

Yeah, but Cease says no, so it's sort of like when I was a kid and wanted a pony.

Worth at least mentioning because I haven't seen it mentioned above, that Cease would likely (though not definitely) garner a compensatory pick if he left in free agency after 2025. That needs to be baked into what a team would give up to get him. 

Vazquez and one of SWR/Festa/Matthews for Cease. Done. Somebody get me AJ’s number.

1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I could see trading Vasquez, Paddack, and a good pitching or hitting prospect along with cash for Cease and a LH reliever like Jacob or Morejon. The relievers are younger and with more control. We get the younger reliever and a year of Cease, they get a catcher and Paddack for this year and a starting pitcher with upside. Twins eat half to 2/3 of the Vasquez salary so they dump $10.5-$12.5m and pick up $13.5-$15m. I wouldn't include Festa, Matthews or SWR, but Morris, Lewis, and  Raya would all be potentially available. Would be willing to part with a hitter instead, not in addition, if that's what the Pads want since most of their good prospects are pitchers. The hitter couldn't be Jenkins, Emma, or Keaschall but anyone else is available, including Martin, Keirsey, and Helman. Also would be willing to consider more than 1 prospect if they are farther down the list in quality. Would love the prospect to be Varland but I don't think he has that kind of value unless combined with someone else.   

That is pretty much take as well.  Pad's get a veteran pitcher in return in Paddack they'll want the money to be neutral so Twins will have to pay down some salary.  They'll also want want a young pitcher close to ready to help them this year for depth so looking at Matthews, Morris, Maybe Lewis which will hurt as those guys will be cost controlled for 5 years most likely. But they'll need that to cover the comp pick they would get if they kept him (although given their payroll situation not sure if they would get a 1st or 2nd).  They might want a lower level flyer as well.

I guess we'll have to wait and see how it all works out but I like your approach on this one.  Not sure if I love this deal for just one year of Cease but that would be a formidable rotation for this year.

I had the thought that AJ Preller gets a lot of press for being this great dynamic trader but does it actually pay off in the major leagues?  This is a damning list, AJ Preller is actually actively bad at this.  I had totally forgotten the Trea Turner as PTBNL one year after drafting him in the 1st round. 

Get him Derek!

https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/1348g0n/introducing_the_allpreller_trade_team/

Also a good list to refer to when we want our guys to just do something. 

36 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I had the thought that AJ Preller gets a lot of press for being this great dynamic trader but does it actually pay off in the major leagues?  This is a damning list, AJ Preller is actually actively bad at this.  I had totally forgotten the Trea Turner as PTBNL one year after drafting him in the 1st round. 

Get him Derek!

https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/1348g0n/introducing_the_allpreller_trade_team/

Also a good list to refer to when we want our guys to just do something. 

 

Oof.  And AMEN.  Let’s not make trades for the sake of churn.  You’re going to lose some trades.  It’s a fact of life.  But  this list is frightening!

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I agree with this take.  Including Cease is a round peg in a square hole fit-wise as we have a nice rotation at this point with strong prospects in the pipeline.  We would be making our catching position weaker to fill a strength in the rotation and probably not saving any money which is the focal point of trading Vasquez.  Doesn't make sense to me.

re: Square peg / round hole

Yes. But that presumes the F.O.'s goal is what many of us are assuming it is... Limp to the regular season with a perfectly decent team. Get a new owner. If we do something in 2025, great. But otherwise focus on 2026. I think many of us are assuming that what the Twins are going to do.

But what if that assumption is wrong. What if Falvey is like "screw that." What if Falvey looks at the AL and thinks "damn... that's pretty weak." And he also realizes, with a new owner, he needs to make a good first impression and his job isn't really guaranteed beyond 2025. Maybe ownership has OK'ed $140M as the payroll and Falvey is trying to maximize the chance that $140M can lead to 2025 success?

1 hour ago, Brett said:

Vazquez and one of SWR/Festa/Matthews for Cease. Done. Somebody get me AJ’s number.

SWR is a proven MLB pitcher. Not giving him up for one year of Cease. Festa has huge upside - again, no deal. Maybe Matthews.

Are the Twins really a WS candidate in 2025? I''m not giving up team control for young promising arms for one year unless that is the case.

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among the teams with interest in Dylan Cease

As should be the case, if the Padres are hinting that they would part with him.

The Twins aren't going to win a bidding war using any conceivable prospect capital, and Vazquez is nowhere near enough of an inducement.  I'm giving this Twins-specific trade rumor little attention.