Kirby Killebrew

Thanks for your response!

Yep, the FO must acquire at least two above-average hitters for us to have a chance next year.

Agreed, we can't stand totally pat. Lineup MUST be augmented in the offseason.

No doubt we gotta have a couple more bats. My friend and I were discussing the defense this morning, that has to get better as well.

Good analysis, I might be overly optimistic about our 2026 lineup. After $34 million in contracts expiring, I'm hopeful we can get at least one, if not two, quality hitters in free agency.

As we go through the annual Trade Deadline Speculation-Fest, we are all aquiver about the haul we might receive for Duran, Jax, Ryan, etc. That's understandable, they should fetch handsome returns if traded. However, to me, I wonder if we're asking the most important question -- what are our playoff chances in 2026? As this is written, Baseball Reference gives us an 8.6 percent chance of making this year's playoffs. I'm not giving up on this year's team but the objective part of me realizes that our chances are slimmer than an airbrushed cover model. So, if we trade Castro, Bader, Coulombe, etc., I'm not going to like it but it is justifiable, certainly. However, the question I'd like you to answer is, what do you think of our playoff chances in 2026? Here's our projected roster as we sit today: Catcher -- Jeffers 1B -- Clemens 2B -- Keaschall SS -- Correa 3B -- Lewis utility -- Lee OF -- Buxton, Larnach, Wallner We would need to add a catcher, another infielder (a right-handed bopper at first base would be extremely helpful), and a couple of outfielders (ditto on the big bopper). Where those come from are the topics for the hot stove league -- our current fringe players, the guys in AAA, free agents, etc. Starting pitchers -- Pablo, Ryan, Ober, Zebby, SWR, Festa Relievers -- Duran, Jax, Varland, Stewart, Sands, Topa Actually a surplus of one starter, but we know they'll all be needed. The additional two relievers are hot stove fodder as well -- AAA, free agents, etc. In broad strokes, IMO we have enough pitching. We need to add one or two above-average bats (I'm thinking .280 hitters with 20+ HR potential), which I'm thinking is not unrealistic. Back to the question -- do we have enough be a contender in 2026? My answer is yes, which means we DO NOT trade away our controlled 2026 key pieces. Now, inquiring minds want to know. What do you think -- do you see us as 2026 playoff contenders right now, do we stand pat with our 2026 key pieces or trade them away?

Excellent analysis! First, the FO had no way to trade a $10 million Vazquez or even an oft-injured $7.5 million Paddack, so we were chained to those costs. (After a rough start, Paddack has pitched decently, hopefully that will continue. This might be a good time to sell high on him, with Festa and Matthews available.) Given how little money was available, I was surprised they were able to get France and Bader. (I was not high on Bader and am quite pleased to be proved wrong.) Hard to blame the FO when your top two power hitters, Wallner and Lewis, have a total of 66 at-bats. Get Lewis and Castro back this week, hopefully that will help the offense. Despite the horrendous start, the pitching now ranks ninth in the majors in ERA and WHIP. Keep pitching decently and get some lineup pieces back and we could get back in this thing. Go get 'em, guys!

The Judge: "After all, you could get in the game and wreck it with an unexpected blow." Hobbs, smiling: "That'd be the beauty of it."

I strongly disagree 2010 batted .327, 9 HR, 75 RBI, OPS .871, all-star 2011 injured, played half the season, batted .287, 3 HR, 30 RBI, OPS .729 2012 batted .319, 10 HR, 85 RBI, led league in OBP at .416, OPS .861, all-star 2013 batted .324, 11 HR, 47 RBI, .880 OPS, all-star last five seasons his batting averages ranged from .261 to .305; his OPS ranged from .718 to .801 I'll take that out of anybody!

NOOOOOOOOOOOO! Why trade one (or more) of our top prospects, with whom we have several seasons of control, for one year of Cease? We should Cease such thinking. Our biggest need is a righthanded hitting outfielder/first baseman. Obviously it would have to be affordable, someone such as Mark Canha. Oh wait, he's available? Really?

That's true -- I estimated best case and mid-range scenarios. Didn't include a worst-case scenario, which would be a 70-win season if a bunch of stuff falls apart.

Spotrac has our total 40-man roster commitment (plus dead money) at $137.7 million. I think that's our number to work from. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/minnesota-twins/overview/_/year/2025

With arbitration contracts done, Spotrac has our roster at $137.7 million. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/minnesota-twins/overview/_/year/2025 I think that's the best we can hope for. Assuming ownership is at its maximum -- or we can do a salary dump with Vazquez and Paddack (i.e,, basically give them away for little or nothing) and sign a low tier righthanded OF/1B -- our roster is what it is. Best case scenario for 2025, IMO: if we stay healthier than last year, we could win more than last year, maybe as many as 90 games. Most likely scenario: lack of righthanded corner OF, lack of LH relief pitching, shaky defense at first base and various random injuries make us a .500 team and leave us sighing that a $150 million budget would have had us in the playoffs. Your thought?

Good analysis, Doc. We lose this trade in the short run. But, we won't know if we won/lost this trade for another five years, assuming we keep Gonzalez that long.

Good logic, Doc, agree with all. Only concern I'd have is trading Kepler because of our lack of outfield depth. I'd be OK with trading Polanco or Julien because we have two second basemen, although I'd cry if we traded Julien. I think he's going to be a great tablesetter and it looks like he's made significant progress on defense.

That would be an ideal solution!

Well played :)

Completely agree on moving some salary via trade if possible.

I think we should try the rookie route and hope for a miracle before we overpay via trade.

Agreed on the number of starting pitchers. Chances of the five starters each posting 32 starts is about the same as a soap bubble going through a meat grinder. Torn between ... * sacrificing great young talent for a top-shelf pitcher * overpaying via trade for a mediocre backend starter * hoping that someone among Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, Matt Canterino etc. is a steady MLB-caliber starter as a rookie

In 1983, the movie "WarGames" is about a teenager who, thinking he has hacked into a games company computer, actually hacks into the Department of Defense computer that controls the United States nuclear arsenal. He initiates "Global Thermonuclear War" and the computer seeks to begin World War III. However, after going through dozens of scenarios, the computer shuts down with the words, "the only winning move is not to play." The ending of the movie reminds me of the Minnesota Twins 2023-24 offseason. Among our fanbase, there is much hand-wringing, teeth-gnashing and general angst over the lack of significant free-agent signings or major trades. There is general understanding among the fans that, given the major reduction in '24 payroll because of the uncertainty of a local TV deal, there is not going to be a big free-agent signing. That leaves the trade route, with the number one priority a top-of-the-line starting pitcher. We did this a year ago with Pablo Lopez. The price? The American League batting champion. The cost will be no less this year, except the tab will likely be one or more of the Twins top young talent -- Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, etc. Are we ready to sacrifice these guys for a pitcher, who are always day-to-day because of the fragility of arms? I'd love to have another Pablo Lopez but I don't think I'm willing to sacrifice a combination of Lewis, Lee, Jenkins, quality veterans, etc. to get him. The last time we, as a fanbase, clamored this loudly to make a trade was the 2022 trade deadline. In desperation, the FO traded for Jorge Lopez and Tyler Mahle. A grand total of five wins and seven saves later, they are nowhere to be found while Yennier Cano (2.11 ERA last season), Spencer Steer (.271, 23 HR, 86 RBI, 15 SB) and Christian Encarnacion-Strand (.270, 13 HR, 37 RBI as a part-time player) are doing quite nicely in non-Twins uniforms. I'm not against a trade but as it stands now, our current roster is the favorite to win the division. I'm quite willing to go into the playoffs with Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober as our starting pitchers. When it comes to making a major trade now, the winning move might be not to play. Your thoughts?

I'm afraid you're right about Vazquez. If we have to send $8m in a trade, then we're better off keeping him. I'm glad to have him on the team, but as so many point out rightly, $10m is about $9m too much for a backup catcher. How about this -- keep him, and if a team has an acute catching need during the season, perhaps that team will take his salary off our hands.

No, not a mistake. He's a valuable piece, i want him on the team, even though he's overpaid.

Wow, trading Lewis ... that would be daring! But then again, they traded a young AL batting champion a year ago.

I think there's going to have to be a top prospect(s) along with the combo of Polanco, Farmer and/or Vasquez.