Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account
  • entry
    1
  • comments
    13
  • views
    8,015

Regarding the Trade Deadline, How Would You Answer This Question?


Twins Video

As we go through the annual Trade Deadline Speculation-Fest, we are all aquiver about the haul we might receive for Duran, Jax, Ryan, etc.  That's understandable, they should fetch handsome returns if traded.

However, to me, I wonder if we're asking the most important question -- what are our playoff chances in 2026?

As this is written, Baseball Reference gives us an 8.6 percent chance of making this year's playoffs. I'm not giving up on this year's team but the objective part of me realizes that our chances are slimmer than an airbrushed cover model.  So, if we trade Castro, Bader, Coulombe, etc., I'm not going to like it but it is justifiable, certainly.  

However, the question I'd like you to answer is, what do you think of our playoff chances in 2026?  Here's our projected roster as we sit today:

Catcher -- Jeffers 

1B -- Clemens

2B -- Keaschall 

SS -- Correa

3B -- Lewis

utility -- Lee

OF -- Buxton, Larnach, Wallner

We would need to add a catcher, another infielder (a right-handed bopper at first base would be extremely helpful), and a couple of outfielders (ditto on the big bopper).  Where those come from are the topics for the hot stove league -- our current fringe players, the guys in AAA, free agents, etc.

Starting pitchers -- Pablo, Ryan, Ober, Zebby, SWR, Festa

Relievers -- Duran, Jax, Varland, Stewart, Sands, Topa

Actually a surplus of one starter, but we know they'll all be needed.  The additional two relievers are hot stove fodder as well -- AAA, free agents, etc.

In broad strokes, IMO we have enough pitching.  We need to add one or two above-average bats (I'm thinking .280 hitters with 20+ HR potential), which I'm thinking is not unrealistic.

Back to the question -- do we have enough be a contender in 2026?  My answer is yes, which means we DO NOT trade away our controlled 2026 key pieces.  

Now, inquiring minds want to know.  What do you think -- do you see us as 2026 playoff contenders right now, do we stand pat with our 2026 key pieces or trade them away?

image.jpeg.f922a70a401653680eeb5d003e0c41d6.jpeg

13 Comments


Recommended Comments

Greglw3

Posted

My answer is no, because we have an offense that is devoid of major league average hitting ability except Buxton. The offense has been dragging the franchise down for most of the last 5 years.

Keaschall can help but we’re way short with weaknesses in LF, RF, SS, 2B, 1B, and only average at C.

That’s why we need to trade at least Duran OR Jax for 2 young, close to the majors hitters. And if we can pick up more offense that’s going to hit .275-.300 with the group of Castro, Bader, Larnach, Coulombe and possibly Wallner (can’t even catch up to 95 mph fastballs this year.

Emmanual Rodriguez hasn’t shown that he’s close to ready, Sabato may be, Gabrial Gonzalez may be also and Walker Jenkins, we can cross our fingers on.

But we need a big influx of offense and we should do it while keeping Joe Ryan. Ryan, Pablo, Ober, Zebby, maybe Festa can take us forward but we lack SP depth. St. Paul seems totally devoid of any solutions.

If we can pick up 3-4 young hitters, at least 3 close to ready, then we have a chance in 2026. Otherwise no chance.

 

RpR

Posted

Bad line-up: Clemens only - good - fielding numbers are in right field, Larnarch and Wallner are a mediocre for Larnach and just plain bad for Wallner.  With out Bader Twins outfield is horrid.  Better keep Keirsey Jr. on the 40 man then for late innings defense in close games.

Jeffers' catching defense is falling,, while his bat is sporadic.

France numbers at first are far better than Clemens.

Lewis at 3rd is still a question mark, and Keaschall is a total unknown.

A team that does not hit well cannot afford a defense that is sub-standard.

tony&rodney

Posted

Looking over the roster ...

Jeffers can be a decent 2nd catcher or half time guy with occasionally good offense but weak glove.

Nobody at first.

Second base has no glove and maybe bats. Can Keaschall play second base. Culpepper would be better.

Third base is the opiate-Royce Lewis. Hard to predict anything there but he gets the spot. 

Correa is signed. He is sure-handed with declining range and less pop in his bat.

Buxton is great if healthy, but otherwise there are no outfielders worth talking about. Do prospects shine and fight it out for ROY (EmRod and Jenkins)? That seems like slim odds.

DH is covered with a handful of guys. Will they hit?

Pitching is good.

Right now, it is not looking very good for the 2026 roster. There are still 8 months to go though. Plenty can happen in that time.

jorgenswest

Posted

Absolutely. Yes.

Will the front office be willing to invest into this team over the winter? One more bat would really help. Maybe it is Jenkins. Maybe Rodriguez is healthy and impactful. Maybe Lewis plays at an all star level.

I am not shutting the door on next season,

Kirby Killebrew

Posted

On 7/26/2025 at 4:14 PM, Greglw3 said:

My answer is no, because we have an offense that is devoid of major league average hitting ability except Buxton. The offense has been dragging the franchise down for most of the last 5 years.

Keaschall can help but we’re way short with weaknesses in LF, RF, SS, 2B, 1B, and only average at C.

That’s why we need to trade at least Duran OR Jax for 2 young, close to the majors hitters. And if we can pick up more offense that’s going to hit .275-.300 with the group of Castro, Bader, Larnach, Coulombe and possibly Wallner (can’t even catch up to 95 mph fastballs this year.

Emmanual Rodriguez hasn’t shown that he’s close to ready, Sabato may be, Gabrial Gonzalez may be also and Walker Jenkins, we can cross our fingers on.

But we need a big influx of offense and we should do it while keeping Joe Ryan. Ryan, Pablo, Ober, Zebby, maybe Festa can take us forward but we lack SP depth. St. Paul seems totally devoid of any solutions.

If we can pick up 3-4 young hitters, at least 3 close to ready, then we have a chance in 2026. Otherwise no chance.

 

Good analysis, I might be overly optimistic about our 2026 lineup.  After $34 million in contracts expiring, I'm hopeful we can get at least one, if not two, quality hitters in free agency.  

Kirby Killebrew

Posted

21 hours ago, RpR said:

Bad line-up: Clemens only - good - fielding numbers are in right field, Larnarch and Wallner are a mediocre for Larnach and just plain bad for Wallner.  With out Bader Twins outfield is horrid.  Better keep Keirsey Jr. on the 40 man then for late innings defense in close games.

Jeffers' catching defense is falling,, while his bat is sporadic.

France numbers at first are far better than Clemens.

Lewis at 3rd is still a question mark, and Keaschall is a total unknown.

A team that does not hit well cannot afford a defense that is sub-standard.

No doubt we gotta have a couple more bats.  My friend and I were discussing the defense this morning, that has to get better as well.

Kirby Killebrew

Posted

6 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Absolutely. Yes.

Will the front office be willing to invest into this team over the winter? One more bat would really help. Maybe it is Jenkins. Maybe Rodriguez is healthy and impactful. Maybe Lewis plays at an all star level.

I am not shutting the door on next season,

Agreed, we can't stand totally pat.  Lineup MUST be augmented in the offseason.

Kirby Killebrew

Posted

7 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Looking over the roster ...

Jeffers can be a decent 2nd catcher or half time guy with occasionally good offense but weak glove.

Nobody at first.

Second base has no glove and maybe bats. Can Keaschall play second base. Culpepper would be better.

Third base is the opiate-Royce Lewis. Hard to predict anything there but he gets the spot. 

Correa is signed. He is sure-handed with declining range and less pop in his bat.

Buxton is great if healthy, but otherwise there are no outfielders worth talking about. Do prospects shine and fight it out for ROY (EmRod and Jenkins)? That seems like slim odds.

DH is covered with a handful of guys. Will they hit?

Pitching is good.

Right now, it is not looking very good for the 2026 roster. There are still 8 months to go though. Plenty can happen in that time.

Yep, the FO must acquire at least two above-average hitters for us to have a chance next year. 

Kirby Killebrew

Posted

49 minutes ago, Kirby Killebrew said:

Good analysis, I might be overly optimistic about our 2026 lineup.  After $34 million in contracts expiring, I'm hopeful we can get at least one, if not two, quality hitters in free agency.  

Thanks for your response!

tony&rodney

Posted

57 minutes ago, Kirby Killebrew said:

Good analysis, I might be overly optimistic about our 2026 lineup.  After $34 million in contracts expiring, I'm hopeful we can get at least one, if not two, quality hitters in free agency.  

Go to mlbtraderumors.com and scroll down to 2025-2026 Free Agents. Who would want that is remotely possible. For example, I don't believe the Twins will be able to discuss numbers with either of Kyle Tucker or Cody Bellinger. I am not seeing any help via free agency. Last year there were calls to sign Hoskins for 1st base and Jordan Montgomery for a starting pitcher. There has not really been much available in free agency except for the guys who get the big bucks. Does anyone think the Twins will sign another FA contract similar to Correa's. People discuss or comment on budget but the Twins have spent more than anyone in their division. I think the Twins will see some other clubs spend more than them in the next few years. Media deals or lack thereof probably make a difference.

While I have no idea what will be done, rolling it back and hoping to find a diamond on the sidewalk is not a plan. 

JD-TWINS

Posted

I trade somebody (Jax - Sands/Coulombe - SWR/Sands) for Catcher/1B Rushing of Dodgers. They are in “win now” mode, big time! They need competent relievers!! Sands/Coulombe really lengthens their PEN ….. Stewart/Coulombe is also an option. Twins could try to re-sign Coulombe over the Winter if desired. …… Maybe we flip the Catcher prospect from Detroit & Stewart &/or Coulombe for Rushing?

To me, seriously considering moving Jeffers to 1B & have him be the 3rd Catcher (10% of starts) makes a bunch of sense. Rushing as primary Catcher ….. a Vazquez type for 30% of games for $4.5M is probably realistic.

Clemens seems to be a stretch for ‘26 if offensive upgrades are sought, but Lee & Clemens cover a bunch of spots as Utility guys.

Lewis - CC - Keaschall - Jeffers - Rushing (IF)

Larnach - Buxton - Wallner (OF)

Need to spend on DH & RH hitting OF (via off-season trades potentially)…..FA🤞

Have to come to realization that Lee may be a lifer back-up and Wallner may be a wash out. These two, along with Martin are the Poster Boys for why a Team can’t give up contributors for other team’s “valued prospects.”

Tough to get opponents to trade good players and there aren’t many worthwhile in free agency year over year. One guy here just wants team to sign 3 guys hitting .275-.300 (no problem???) ……..not many teams that have 2 guys hitting .275 in today’s game!

bunsen82

Posted

Yes we have a good enough to make the playoffs, now the question is will Ryan, Jax or Duran be traded or combination be traded.
 

I am talking myself more and more into trading Ryan. If teams are willing to value and pay for Ryan as a top 10 to 15 pitcher and possibly overpay, that is peak value for Ryan. It also means you are most likely getting an elite pitching prospect as part of the haul. 

As to Jax and Duran my guess is 1 of the 2 gets traded, again to an overpay. 
 

So without knowing what the haul or prospect return is are they a playoff team, not in the current form. What you would have is the most loaded farm system we have ever had, and it would be time to start utilizing that depth and trading for more players in the offseason similar to our Petty for Gray trade. We may have a little more money for signing free agents, but our biggest currency will be our prospects. So ultimately yes I think we will have a good team. Correa has also never had back to back poor season, so I do think he does have a rebound year. I also think Lewis will begin to have more consistency. As to 2nd base who knows, Keaschal, Lee or does Julien come back from the dead. Culpepper will also most likely be knocking on the door. Outfield is where need at least 1 very good addition and most likely 1 solid addition. I think SP and RP we will be able to figure things out and put up top 10 performance for ERA again. When SWR is considered a fringe starter for us with sub 4 era that is some really good depth. You also have Priellip Raya and a Few others who will be on the doorstep too. Honestly AAA may start to get a tad crowded. 

The_No_Lifer

Posted

Given our division, I'd have to put our odds above 25% because somebody has to win it, and no strong teams helps with the wildcard as well.

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...