Are Trevor Larnach And Matt Wallner Redundent?

[Cody Pirkl]

The Twins have a pair of corner outfielders with similar profiles under team control over the next few seasons. As they try to thread the needle this offseason, will they decide that only one of them can fit through the eye?

Image courtesy of orlando ramirez-usa today sports

Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner are currently likely to fill both corner outfield spots in the Twins' Opening Day lineup for 2025. Each has had their share of highs in a Twins uniform, and (alas) miserable lows to match. Could the Twins decide this winter that they would be better off not trusting both of them?

Larnach and Wallner each saw their values completely bottom out at one point in 2024. Larnach seemed like a sure thing to be shipped out before the season, and Wallner quickly lost his starting job and was demoted to St. Paul after looking thoroughly lost at the MLB level throughout spring training and over the first fortnight of the regular campaign. For a Twins roster that finished the season at the lowest of lows, however, these two put up tremendous seasons and have given the Twins every reason to trust them in 2025. Whereas they appeared to be part of the problem early on, they were the only things about the team that worked down the stretch.

Larnach’s rebound had much to do with completely retooling his plate approach. After three seasons and nearly 700 plate appearances with a strikeout rate over 30%, he lowered this mark to 22.3% in 2024—while posting a career high in homers and slugging average. He didn’t completely put his injury problems behind him, but he was able to play through much of the season with turf toe, which leaves one wondering if Larnach has yet another level he could attain.

Wallner was one of the saviors of the Twins in 2023. but was demoted after striking out 17 times in 33 at-bats in April. He returned in July and slashed .282/.386/.559 with 12 homers the rest of the way. He was one of the few offensive players pulling their weight during the team’s historic collapse. Importantly, though, he did so with a strikeout rate well above 30%.

Both players have established themselves as high-upside offensive players who are limited defensively and still possess plenty of red flags when evaluating their futures. For a team likely trading away starting players from other parts of the roster, Larnach or Wallner could each be dangled on the trade market as part of what could be a sizeable shakeup.

A team like the Twins, who value defensive chops, may be nervous about running out this pair, given the defensive falloff they would see with Max Kepler’s departure. One could argue that each of these sluggers putting up slightly better than average offense would bridge the gap, but if the Twins don’t feel confident in their ability to do so, it may make a decision that much easier.

Of course, the Twins could choose to keep their homegrown players, both of whom were bright spots during a miserable 2024. Each has had their fair share of adversity, and has bounced back significantly. There are also arguments for even more upside for both. Larnach could further tap into his raw power, making him a monster at the plate if he can hold his strikeout gains. Wallner performed at an elite level, even with one of the worst strikeout rates among regulars last season.

Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner are both high-variance, left-handed corner outfielders who have made strides in the last year, though their futures are not without questions. Should the Twins cash in on one of them coming off a season in which their value may be at an all-time high? Should they let it ride and hope they can become core players in the heart of the lineup for years to come? Let us know below!

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[Rod Carews Birthday]

I don’t think they are redundant at all.  They have a similar, but not identical, hitting profile and both are right-handed corner outfielders who actually hit well last year, but last time I checked, two corner outfielders were needed.  Now, maybe at some point one of them gets displaced by a prospect coming up (ahem. . . ERod), but until then let’s get all the mileage out of them that we can.  Then we perhaps have someone good to trade.   

So much is made on this board of individual players’ defense, or the perception of it.  Neither of these guys are prime Byron Buxton or even excellent Max Kepler, but that doesn’t mean that if they hit, their defense isn’t acceptable.  Sometimes we err by comparing players only to the best there is at a position, when just OK is just enough when paired with a good hitting profile.  

[rdehring]

To some extent, yes.

If I were to choose, would keep Wallner over Larnach.  Believe he is under team control a year or so longer.  Larnach also tends to get injured too much.

Whereas Larnach is a solid bat with marginal defense, Wallner could be special in two areas of his game.  Although limited defensively, he has a cannon.  He also has massive power, which gives him the edge in my opinion. 

Personally, would feel much better about the Twins if two of their three outfielders are very good defensively.  That ain't the case if both of these guys are in the corners.

[Finlander]

I think one is moved - but which one? Depends on the offers. There are more lefty swinging OFs on the way, some with potentially higher ceilings.

If I had to pick one to keep, I'd probably go with Wallner, hoping to see his arm used off the mound in mop up duty!

[stringer bell]

Yes, they are similar, but not redundant IMHO. Both are left handed hitters whose power is their best tool. Both are corner OFs only. I would wager that if Rodriguez and Jenkins progress this season, one of these two will be playing for another team in 2026, but for 2025 there is room for both and they will be among the better hitters in the projected Twins Lineup. 

[farmerguychris]

Sure they're redundant - but thats OK because we have 2 spots open for them to play (LF, RF).  As long as both of them are making the minimum salary (or close to it), I envision keeping them both around until new ownership decides what their payroll will be looking like.

[LambchoP]

Wallner's strikeout rate scares me, as does his inconsistent hitting, like the beginning of last year when he couldn't buy a hit. However, I do think he has more potential and a higher ceiling than Larnach. We do need two corners outfielders though. If we trade anyone I'd trade Larnach, but only if we had a plan in place to replace him with a major league outfielder who can hit, preferably from the right side. Castro, Martin and Keirsey are fine as 4rth outfielders, at least until Eros and Rosario are ready, but I wouldn't want any of them as our starting left fielder.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I don’t know that they are redundant because they both hit left handed. But I will admit that the downgrade in overall outfield defense scares me. I’d be totally fine moving one or both if it helps in other areas. I also would love a strong defender starting in at least one of the corner spots

[mikelink45]

I am fine with them for 2025.  The two prospects you listed in the article are not ready yet and these two are producing at average and better at the plate - something we desperately need.  Let someone beat them out before we look at moving them on.  

[Blyleven2011]

Larnach went to driveline last off season and showed significant better results  , he should be back there again this off season and hone his skill even more , 2024 could have been  his last season in a twins uniform if he didn't show production   ,  he did and he stays another year ...

Wallner had a horrid start to the season and was sent to AAA  to find himself , he needs to go to driveline this off season to hone his batting eye ...

As far as defense  they are both adequate at the corners  , if they work hard they can be better , the FO and Rocco should also try both of them at first base in spring training to give them versatility  , see in spring training if it is possible  one of them could be a decent first basemen  ...

The only thing redundant on the roster is the injuries ...

[Mike Sixel]

What a mind boggling question. Truly. 

[tony&rodney]

This is an excellent article, well done. The two are both capable players who can provide a ton of value at the plate. I wouldn't say they are redundant, necessarily. I think one fits in the field and the other is a DH. 

"A team like the Twins, who value defensive chops," - How did you drop this line in your article? Currently the Twins are mostly a team of DH's, with a couple of exceptions. Falvey has drafted bat first guys, signed bat first guys, and looks bat first. When I go to a Twins game or watch them on TV there is a noticeable difference between their opponents glove play and what the Twins offer defensively.

One wonders whether either Larnach or Wallner is capable of playing first base? I would keep both of these guys, but rarely use both in the same outfield arrangement. 

[Major League Ready]

Last I checked we need two corner OFers.  Their presence means the Twins don't need to push Rodriquez.  While I hope we see Rodriquez in June, they can still play all 3 in the OF and DH.  They could use one of them as trade capital if Rodriquez is what we hope, especially if Jenkins continues to look promising as he moves up, but we are not there yet.  It would be great if we eventually produce a surplus.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Finlander said:

I think one is moved - but which one? Depends on the offers. There are more lefty swinging OFs on the way, some with potentially higher ceilings.

If I had to pick one to keep, I'd probably go with Wallner, hoping to see his arm used off the mound in mop up duty!

He gets to pitch...TC's Mini Ohtani.

[FlyingFinn]

I want the Twins to make them non-redundant. Either Wallner or Larnach has to be able to hit LH pitching. My problem is that the Twins don't play them enough against LH pitching to find out if they can. Then, when they face a LH pitcher for just a few AB's in a week, of course they fail.

[jmlease1]

I think we're a season too early for this article. 2026 it'll make more sense to me, especially if Walker Jenkins continues his rise and Emma has been knocking the cover off the ball in AAA and gotten some time in MLB in 2025.

While I'm enthusiastic about Emma's ability and think he'll get plenty of opportunity in the Twins OF in 2025, handing him a starting job seems...aggressive. I like seeing prospects earn their way in to MLB opportunities by destroying their level, rather than being handed a job on scholarship. 

The lineup could use a little more RH thump, but 1B/DH seems to be the most logical place to do that...and even if the team cobbles together the payroll space to add that type of hitter and they play some corner OF, I don't know that it makes Larnach or Wallner redundant yet.

Healthy, Larnach is a pretty solid outfielder, so if his turf toe (which always sounds dumb, but is a really painful injury that makes running challenging) is healed, he's quite capable of handling LF. Wallner is very well suited to RF with that cannon of an arm, and if we have Buxton patrolling CF it will help him for sure.

Wallner has produced in the lineup. Aesthetically, he's going to infuriate a segment of Twins fans for as long as he's on the team, but the stats really don't lie: dude can hit, and can produce like you need a RF to produce. OPS+ of 149 is a serious number. That's better than any player on Cleveland last season.

the reason to move either is if someone makes you a trade offer you can't refuse. not because they're redundant.

[Guest]

Better question is would either of Larnach and Wallner be able to play 1B?

I sense this off-season will involve a big shake-up.

[bean5302]

Pretty much nothing in common between these two, but TD writers continue to try to force them into the same mold.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Extremely cheap, potentially capable.  The Twins mantra for 2025.

Neither of these guys are going anywhere.

[tony&rodney]

43 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

While I'm enthusiastic about Emma's ability and think he'll get plenty of opportunity in the Twins OF in 2025, handing him a starting job seems...aggressive. I like seeing prospects earn their way in to MLB opportunities by destroying their level, rather than being handed a job on scholarship. 

There are two issues with Emmanuel Rodriguez. He has been injured too often to fully judge what he does in a full season of games. He strikes out a ton. We don't know if the injuries will return or not, but it is likely that EmRod strikes out more than I would like to see. 

Yes, putting him in the lineup would be aggressive. That is what one does with young players who are potential stars. As far as earning a shot, he already has earned an opportunity. Emmanuel has totally destroyed every league. He is a good baserunner, is very good with a glove, has great power, and has a high on base percentage. I'm aware that very few believe EmRod is ready yet. Some are actually down on ER's potential to handle MLB. I think he is ready right now. I also would not be surprised if Falvey chooses to trade Rodriguez.

Sticking Emmanuel in LF, or CF with BB going to LF, would immediately strengthen the defense. Larnach and Wallner can switch between DH and RF. Maybe one of them has an ability to pick up first base, although that seems like a stretch.

[ashbury]

The problem with these two corner outfielders is the starting center fielder. 

Specifically, that the CF starter is frequently unavailable, and at the moment the best defensive candidate as his backup (Keirsey) also bats left-handed.  If Buxton is out for extended periods, you'd have an outfield of LH bats who are each highly unproven when the opposing team throws lefty after lefty at you.

It's not their fault, but housing both Larnach and Wallner present roster problems when things go even slightly amiss.

[Mike Sixel]

21 minutes ago, ashbury said:

The problem with these two corner outfielders is the starting center fielder. 

Specifically, that the CF starter is frequently unavailable, and at the moment the best defensive candidate as his backup (Keirsey) also bats left-handed.  If Buxton is out for extended periods, you'd have an outfield of LH bats who are each highly unproven when the opposing team throws lefty after lefty at you.

It's not their fault, but housing both Larnach and Wallner present roster problems when things go even slightly amiss.

It would be very hard to throw lefty after lefty over multiple games for almost every team. But, ya, not idea, but not a deal breaker for me given the dearth of LHP across the league. 

The twins need a LF, RF, DH and could train one as a 1B......I don't see how these two are close to redundant at all. I just don't understand the premise of this article at all. 

[DJL44]

35 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I just don't understand the premise of this article at all. 

Me neither. Are Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis redundant? They both hit righthanded and play infield.

[Doctor Gast]

Both are LH hitters who had to adjust, both adjusted but in different ways. We could carry both rotating them at DH if needed. We have (LH) hitting Wallner, Larnach, Keirsey & Castro in the OF with Emma on his way. If the team is determined to have another RH-hitting cOF then the best solution is trading Larnach for one.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

It would be very hard to throw lefty after lefty over multiple games for almost every team.

Doesn't need to be like that. Bases empty and/or not a close score, it makes no difference what resources the opposing manager has. But if the other team has a lefty or two they can bring in each time the game hangs in the balance with one of our corner guys due up, it's a disadvantage.

The solution of course is for the new batting coach to figure out what the previous one(s) apparently could not, namely how to bring these lefty hitters to the level of accomplishment they need to be once they reach the majors.  I don't think Keirsey, Wallner, or Larnach showed the extreme L/R splits in the minors like we've seen in the majors (Keirsey being the smallest of major league SSS of course, but he still managed to fit the unfortunate pattern).  It's uncanny how our lefty hitters, possessing normal/small L/R splits in the minors, seemingly all get spooked by LHP when they come up, deer-in-headlights style.

57 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Me neither. Are Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis redundant? They both hit righthanded and play infield.

Referring to handedness is of course shorthand.  There's the old cliche that "I don't care which hand he throws with, I want a pitcher who can get lefties out," and the corollary for batters is obvious.  Correa hits righthanders exceedingly well (even if he succeeds even more against lefties).  Lewis is a little hard to figure, given his second-half swoon, but the overall stats for his 2024 show a guy who was playable when facing a right-hander and did better than that against left-handers.  L/R splits are something almost every batter has, and you can live with that, as long as he's playable either way.

The key is, when are they playable.  Correa is totally playable against RHP, and Lewis shows no sign that he isn't playable against them, either.  Wallner and Larnach, just going by results so far, are simply not playable against LHP,  Adding Keirsey to this mix, based on empty results in a mere 4 PA in 2024, threatens to be toxic unless solutions are found pronto.

Or, maybe Buxton can hang in there for 150 starts in CF, and make my concern moot. 😀

There are various solutions to this L/L/L alignment in the outfield, a few of which I've alluded to and there are obviously others.  My point is that I can't simply ignore it, when deciding whether to roster both Larnach and Waller.  They aren't good enough, yet, to let me.

[bean5302]

9 minutes ago, ashbury said:

...Referring to handedness is of course shorthand.  There's the old cliche that "I don't care which hand he throws with, I want a pitcher who can get lefties out," and the corollary for batters is obvious.  Correa hits righthanders exceedingly well (even if he succeeds even more against lefties).  Lewis is a little hard to figure, given his second-half swoon, but the overall stats for his 2024 show a guy who was playable when facing a right-hander and did better than that against left-handers.  L/R splits are something almost every batter has, and you can live with that, as long as he's playable either way...

wooooooosssshhhhhhh

Did something just fly by your head? LOL

[gman]

Where did you get the idea that there would be a massive roster shakeup this winter? I'd really like to see some support for your wild ideas. Or do you expect people to buy crap just because you through it out there?

[ashbury]

12 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

wooooooosssshhhhhhh

Did something just fly by your head? LOL

I dunno. Tell me.

[thelanges5]

This was already mentioned a couple times but I have the same thought.  
 

Could Larnach play 1B?⚾️

[Riverbrian]

5 hours ago, ashbury said:

My point is that I can't simply ignore it, when deciding whether to roster both Larnach and Waller.  They aren't good enough, yet, to let me.

We don't have the health to utilize two roster spots for one complete player. 

They will have to get better at it. 

They won't get better at it as long as we roster a Margot doppelganger and a Farmer doppelganger to round them out.

The new hitting coach could get them dressed up for a left handed pitcher party... but they still won't have anyplace to go because of those doppelgangers. 

My neighbor has frequent BBQ's that he invites me over to. There is a fence in my backyard that makes it harder to get into my neighbors backyard. I was complaining to my wife that I had to walk all the way around to the other side of his property to enjoys some ribs and a beer. She reminded me that I was the one who built the fence.