Intro to Twins Payroll 2025: Twins Will Need to Increase Payroll (or Dump More Core Players)

[John Bonnes]

Ownership’s reassurance that the Twins won’t further cut payroll in 2025 aren’t at all reassuring. Even with free agents like Max Kepler and Carlos Santana departing, Twins Daily estimates the Twins' payroll will need to increase by as much as $10 million just to keep the core of their team intact.

The dominant story of the Twins' 2023-24 offseason (and 2024 season) was ownership’s decision to slash approximately $30 million from the 2023 payroll. Doing so meant trading away Jorge Polanco, shopping for bargain-level relievers, and essentially sitting out the trade deadline. The worst fears of fans and Twins employees about the ramifications of that decrease--roughly 20 percent--came to fruition when a six-week swoon resulted in the Twins missing the postseason by a handful of games.

But even worse news awaits the team in 2025, as significant built-in raises to several key players will require the team to raise payroll if they want to keep the core of this 82-win team intact. Even with free-agent departures like Max Kepler (who made $10 million in 2024), Carlos Santana ($5.25 million), Kyle Farmer ($6.3 million), Anthony DeSclafani ($4 million, for the Twins; the rest of his eight-figure salary was paid by the Giants and Mariners), and Caleb Thielbar ($3.225 million), the Twins will have even less money to spend than last offseason, unless there is a significant increase in payroll from ownership.

That’s because the payroll will rise organically, due to built-in raises for players under contract and those who get raises via MLB’s arbitration process. For instance, the Twins have a contract with Pablo López that will start paying him $21.5 million annually in 2025, up from $8 million in 2024. Similarly, since Chris Paddack was still returning from Tommy John surgery, he was only paid $2.5 million this year. But he’s under contract for $7.5 million next year.

The bigger issue is MLB’s arbitration process, which gives significant raises to players as they get closer to free agency. The Twins have over half a dozen key players who will get significant raises as a result of this process--and still be a bargain at their new salaries. They include third baseman Royce Lewis, catcher Ryan Jeffers, outfielder Trevor Larnach, starting pitchers Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, and relievers Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax. None of these players will receive an enormous raise, but increases of even $1-4 million for each mean any savings of departing free agents are quickly consumed.

Above is a back-of-the-napkin analysis of the 2025 Twins payroll, including reported contract values and estimated arbitration awards. It is a starting point for the offseason; it shows what the Twins roster might look like if the 2025 season started today, absent their outgoing free agents. It shows a 26-man payroll of approximately $132 million, compared to a 26-man payroll of approximately $122 million for 2024. 

You may cringe a little as you review the names on the list, but remember, this is not meant to be a roster projection. It's a payroll projection. For instance, I don’t think the Twins will be comfortable with Edouard Julien as their designated hitter. But he’s the in-house option right now, and to replace him, they’ll need to pay someone quite a bit more than the roughly $800,000 that Julien would make. 

Furthermore, subtracting salaries from this payroll projection isn’t necessarily easy. Christian Vázquez may not be worth $10 million as a backup catcher. However, MLB contracts are guaranteed, so the Twins need to find another team to pay him some substantial portion of that to remove his salary from this list. Ditto Paddack and his $7.5 million. You may want to trade Carlos Correa to save $36 million, but Correa has a no-trade clause in his contract. He’s not going anywhere. The same goes for Byron Buxton and his $15 million salary. 

Looking closer at the list, you'll soon find that any payroll cuts start hurting. Can Ryan or Ober and their approximate $4 million 2025 salaries be traded away, to be replaced with David Festa or Zebby Matthews and the $800,000 or less that they’d make? Sure, and the Twins could get a valuable player or prospect package in return. But will that help or hurt the 2025 team’s chances of making the postseason? Flipping the possibilities, can we really picture the front office trading away a prospect of meaningful value in a bundle with Vázquez or Paddack for a marginal return, just to clear money they might spend elsewhere? They've never shown an appetite for that kind of move before, even under similar pressures.

So, ownership's reassurance that payroll won’t be cut further should not be viewed as reassuring. A static payroll will still require Derek Falvey and the Twins front office to ask and answer some tough questions this offseason. If payroll doesn’t increase, additional cuts will likely be necessary just to maintain most of the team's core. If the front office wants to improve or add players, they’ll need to be especially creative--or talk the Pohlads into restoring their investment in the team to the modest but acceptable standard they set a few years ago.

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What would you do if you were in Falvey's shoes? How much more money would the Pohlads need to put back into the pot to ease these pressures? Let your voice be heard in the comments.

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[Craig Arko]

Nice knowing you, Pablo? 😪

[Original_JB]

[Whitey333]

Yes indeed here we go again.  Their announcement about not further reducing payroll rings hollow.   I would n I t be at all surprised to see them at least try to move Lopez.  Also Correa and Buxton have no trade clauses but those things have been bought out in the past to move a player.  I don't think Buxton is going anywhere.  Why would any team want to pay an undependable part time player 15 million per year.  Correa?  Very good player but there's questions about him as well.  I wouldn't be surprised if he asks to get out.  There will probably be several changes in personnel most of them will be deleting high salary.

[umterp23]

How does lewis go from $740K this year to $2.5M in '25 under the category of team control?  Team control should equal mlb minimum increase to a Julien/Wallner level.  Maybe just a type typo.  

10 arbitration guys coming up will be painful to the wallet.  

 

 

[CRF]

Thanks for cheering me up this morning. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Joe Pohlad trades either Correa or Buxton and Target Field will be empty next summer. He may not necessarily 'care' what the fans think but I don't think his skin is that thick.

They might have to attach a low-level prospect to unload Vazquez or Paddack.

[Vanimal46]

Thanks for putting the numbers together John. Once again, the Twins won’t be able to look at free agency to fill needs beyond the ST invite type players. 

No trade clauses can be waived by the player… So does Correa want to be here knowing he will take up 25-30% of the payroll? Does Royce Lewis want to be here for the long term? Judging by his recent comments I doubt it. Lots of tough decisions to be made this offseason. 

[srlarson]

They need to spend in the 150 range to be competitive.......would love to see Santana back at a reasonable salary..5 mil or so.....but you are gonna have to spend.....then try and keep guys healthy.....

[Brandon27]

They are going to cut payroll it be under 100 million 

[David Maro]

This is what happens when you sign part time players to big dollar contracts.It is not as bad as the really dumb signing of Donaldson who didn't fit the team.When you spend 40% of your payroll on 2 players you end up with the 2024 Twins.Ok Buxton played 100+ games this year for the first time since 2017.If you need a backup SS and CF for 60 to 80 games it becomes a problem.Problems cost money that now takes away from other needs.This organization is not being run in a manner that can or will ever see a championship.

[Patzky]

There's a lot of gloom stains on that napkin. But there are some real values too. Larnach, Wallner. Ryan, Ober, Duran, Jax, Sands, Topa. 

Much as I like Kepler and Farmer, their departure$ (and presumably Thielbar$) make keeping Santana and Castro more palatable. 

[CharlieDee]

No worries. Now that we know Falvey will be back again, I'm sure he'll come up with an awesome plan for 2025.

[IndianaTwin]

56 minutes ago, umterp23 said:

How does lewis go from $740K this year to $2.5M in '25 under the category of team control?  Team control should equal mlb minimum increase to a Julien/Wallner level.  Maybe just a type typo.  

10 arbitration guys coming up will be painful to the wallet.  

 

 

Lewis, Castro and Topa should be labeled as "arbitration." Miranda and Varland should be listed as "team control." The dollar figures are probably about right for each of them, however. 

[DJL44]

With that budget they have roughly $100M to spend to get 40 additional wins above replacement. That means they need players to produce at an average of $2.5M/WAR. I don't understand why they signed Correa at $36M or Vazquez at $10M given those constraints. Correa is not going to produce 14 WAR seasons and Vazquez is not a 4 WAR catcher.

The going rate for free agents is $8M-$10M per WAR. At those rates Correa is paid fairly. They might be able to find a large market team where he would be a better fit.

[roger]

Thanks John for putting this together.

The one free-agent I would like back is Santana.  His defense was flat out fantastic.

Will be interesting winter waiting to see if they do get creative.  But really, 2025 success will be based on how much they get out of their two players making over $50M.  If they play most of the season and perform like when they were healthy last year, the Twins can be good.  If not, is gonna be another long season.

[terrydactyls]

I know that many of you want the front office gone immediately.  But given the salary makeup of the current team and the promise from ownership of not raising payroll, if I were Falvey and Levine, I would happily leave the Twins and sign on with a team who's owner actually wants to win.  I know that throwing big money at players doesn't guarantee success, but it sure would be fun to try that method rather than dumpster diving.  And if they did leave, who would come here under these conditions?  I would guess that only a team of unknowns wanting to prove themselves would step in to the Twins front office.  A new front office might mean the end of Baldelli's tenure as manager (a positive thing for many of you), but (again) who would the job under a tight-fisted owner and an inexperienced front office with absolutely no background.  To paraphrase a great song from the musical "Hair", I'm afraid "this is the dawning of the Age of Indifference."

[The Great Hambino]

I'm starting to think that right-sizing payroll makes more sense before handing out large contracts with no trade clauses, not after. 

[TheLeviathan]

If they can't find a way to offload Vasquez.....this is going to be an ugly offseason.

[Johnny Ringo]

The headline could of read The Twins Vow Not to Reduce Payroll Further (because they can't unless their lawyers can get them out of four bad contracts.)

There is just no getting around the old minimum wage, Mortimer. 

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, TheLeviathan said:

If they can't find a way to offload Vasquez.....this is going to be an ugly offseason.

Do they want to unload Vazquez? I get the feeling once they sign a player, they're hanging with them until the bitter end.

[TheLeviathan]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

Do they want to unload Vazquez? I get the feeling once they sign a player, they're hanging with them until the bitter end.

That's a good question.  If they aren't ready to move on to the kid in St. Paul....then we might be bracing for an all-time painful offseason.

[JD-TWINS]

Haven’t given next year’s roster a bunch of thought - will try to enjoy playoff baseball for a month………..in reality, $$ Twins will spend is complete guess work at this point.

Again, maybe more emotional than rational? To me, Paddack is a decent value for many MLB Clubs…….probably not for the Twins. I can’t see how Festa isn’t one of the Top 5 starters going into ‘25. I would love to have Paddack as part of the Twin’s Pen in ‘25…..he and Varland combined make Stewart a real luxury! Paddack to the Pen v. signing a “real experienced reliever” seems to be better than a push for the Twins. We’ll see - $7.5M

Castro can play a bunch of positions and is competent at nearly all 5 of them. Most AB’s on the Team and offensive production that is/was OK (.247 BA - same as career average …..with 12 HR….102 OPS+) at best in the end. A combination of Lee - Kiersey - Martin cover essentially everything Castro provides. But not Lee has less speed. Not pushing Willi out the door but - $5.5M.

Jeffers, (haven’t looked at associated Catcher Defense thread) to me, just isn’t cutting it 70% of his games behind the plate. His offense completely tanked after May. A “probable All-star” at beginning of June & ended up hitting 2.5 HR/month the last 4 months. 103 OPS+ at season’s end. With 2.1 WAR, he’s affordable at his salary but another guy that brings better defense for $2M may make more sense - doubtful, but worth considering. Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear Twins have any reasonable depth in the system - Camargo looked brutal at the plate in his handful of opportunities this year. I assume there would be interest but is Jeffers worth moving - $4.5M.

This is $17.5M……if payroll is increased a modest 5% ($6M) ………potentially could have $23.5M to spend, less Kiersey & Festa at $.8M each. Need a catcher in this scenario…..,maybe Jeffers is the guy at $4.5M?

Somebody of $$ value has to replace Julien in the DH slot above.

Santana in ‘25, batting 8 or 9 along with his defense, is a serious option. He did lead Team in HR & RBI. Gotta ease somebody else into 40-70 starts at 1B as the future……..not sure that Miranda’s body holds up playing 1B everyday. Maybe 40 starts there and 40 starts at 3B for Jose?

[JD-TWINS]

34 minutes ago, roger said:

Thanks John for putting this together.

The one free-agent I would like back is Santana.  His defense was flat out fantastic.

Will be interesting winter waiting to see if they do get creative.  But really, 2025 success will be based on how much they get out of their two players making over $50M.  If they play most of the season and perform like when they were healthy last year, the Twins can be good.  If not, is gonna be another long season.

Santana had 2.5 WAR …….109 OPS+ ……..lead Team in HR & RBI. Big hole with him gone & nearly all year every one of us thought it would be best if he were not around in ‘25. Risk at age 39……..other player reports suggested he’s a health and physical fitness enthusiast……maybe worthwhile. Somebody will pay him $5-$7M.

[LastOnePicked]

I just wish they'd pick a lane and stick with it. If you're a team built around Lopez, Correa and Buxton, crank open that competitive window for another few years and try a few additional big free agent splashes. If that fails, tear it down in 2027 and rebuild. That really should have been the plan last offseason, since you actually got fairly decent seasons from the big three in 2024. You may not get that again.

Or, if you're a team built around the "cheap guys," turn the reins over to SWR, Lewis, Wallner and the graduating rookie class. Let them take some lumps without pretending you're a contender. Trade Lopez and Jeffers. See what your remaining veterans can bring in at the deadline. Let Buxton and Correa shift over to being mentors (their contracts are likely untradeable anyways). Set your sights on 2027.

I don't understand the point of trying to build a team between these two pathways. You're either putting too much pressure on the shoulders of your rookies, or you're putting too much faith in just a few established stars. You can maybe thread the needle on this ... if you have an incredible coaching staff. Enough said.

[Riverbrian]

Thanks John, 

This projection is a great starting point when it comes to what the front office has to do to get ready for 2024. 

I don't really see middle ground here. The off-season looks to be either chaotic with lots of player movement or mundane with very little player movement. 

The first thing you have to do with your list is drop them into the proper buckets based on how the Twins have executed over the past two seasons. Assuming health of course... which should never be assumed. 

Starting Pitching: You have probably named the starting 5. Starting pitching needs to go beyond 5. We will have Festa, Zebby, Maya (Will need to be added to the 40 man) and Morris (could be our Festa next year) as additional depth. Along with Headrick and Canterino and whoever rises from the system that nobody is talking about right now... just like Zebby did. 

The Starting pitching may not have the top end guy we want... but there is depth here. 

Bullpen: Assuming that Topa has some skill. There are 7 arms in the bullpen that I like. Duran, Jax, Stewart, Varland, Sands, Alcala and Topa. One Problem... they are all right handed. This organization can't ignore the need for left hander pitchers vs left handed batters after placing so much focus on their left hander hitters facing left handed pitchers. So Funderburk is possibly one. Is Moran still a consideration? I think they need someone bigger and better here. Bullpen arms don't break the bank like a starting pitcher will. I'd love to see them grab Tanner Scott who is the top of the pile left hander in free agency next year in my opinion. If they can't land Tanner Scott... they need to look at the #2 portsider and so on. Shop top of the pile. With those 7... two lefties should take up the two bullpen roster spots which can crowd a talented Alcala down to AAA. 

Duran, Scott and Jax make a nice top three with Stewart, Varland, Sands, Alcala, Topa and Funderburk taking the other 6 out of the other 5 spots. This would be what I call bullpen serious and it could rival what Cleveland has right now. Alcala has options so he could start the year in AAA. 

Offense: This is where it gets tricky... you have to drop them all into the proper buckets to see it. I have no reason to believe that the Twins will stop with the extreme platoon splits.

Start with 13 players

Catcher Bucket: Jeffers and Vazquez

11 roster spots left

Multi Position Guy

Willi Castro - Led the team in AB"s this year. That's a problem. He needs to return to this role even though he will probably lead the team in AB"s again out of that role. He doesn't really fit into the platoon thing because his career splits are close to even and his 2024 splits suggest he is best against Right handers.  

10 Roster spots left

Left Handed hitters who won't face left handed pitching

Wallner, Larnach and Julien

7 Roster spots left

Right handed hitters who will face the left handed pitching because the left handed hitters won't. They may have to use Jeffers in this role in addition to his catching duties. So ou will need 2 of them to cover Wallner, Larnach and Julien. Two will have to play OF. 

Jeffers paired with Julien at DH. 

Martin paired with Larnach in LF

??? paired with Wallner in RF

I don't like taking a young player like Martin and making him a short sider but if they are committed to protecting the left handers. They will have to and this really sucks for Martin. In addition they will find the Margot Replacement. If you are happy Margot is gone... rest assured... that another Margot will arrive on a cheapish 1 year deal. Someone like Refsnyder is what we are talking about. Pillar maybe for the CF utilization. Maybe a Merrifield to play multiple positions even though his splits don't work. Someone is replacing Margot.  

5 Roster Spots left

The Power 5 - The close to everyday guys... You can only really platoon 3 spots from each side for a total of 6... So 5 will have to play close to every day. They will be the power 5. 

Correa - SS

Lewis - 3B

Buxton - CF

Lee - 2B

Miranda - 1B

In my opinion... this is where the problem lies. I believe the platooning they do is a problem but I don't think they will change. So these 5 is where the problem is going to rear it's head. I have no expectation that Correa, Lewis and Buxton will remain healthy for 162 games. We don't know what Lee will contribute. I like Miranda but, he faded hard at the end and I'm not sure he belongs in the power 5. When Correa, Buxton and Lewis get hurt. Someone has to rise up and replace them in the everyday 5. Castro will probably be the first power 5 replacement. After Castro... look at the choices and keep in mind that they won't use the left handed hitters for full time duty. that leaves you with Martin and the Margot replacement after Castro for full time duty when these guys get hurt or don't pan out. 

Our offensive hopes and dreams will be placed on the shoulders of the power 5. Meaning we need health from the typically unhealthy and we need solid numbers from a couple of players who haven't provided solid numbers yet. 

 

 

 

 

[Rufus]

Paddack and Castro have trade value, .  Castro showed lots of signs of slipping the second half of last year, now is the time to deal him.  At $7.5 million Paddack,  there should be teams willing to roll the dice on him as a back end starter.  Festa is ready to step in for Paddack,  With more prospects in St Paul in the event of injury.   They can still dangle Vasquez,  a defensive catcher for a young pitching is always valuable.

[JD-TWINS]

46 minutes ago, roger said:

Thanks John for putting this together.

The one free-agent I would like back is Santana.  His defense was flat out fantastic.

Will be interesting winter waiting to see if they do get creative.  But really, 2025 success will be based on how much they get out of their two players making over $50M.  If they play most of the season and perform like when they were healthy last year, the Twins can be good.  If not, is gonna be another long season.

Sure, Buxton & Correa are key pieces! However, they played pretty well over the last couple weeks they were back and still very few runs & very few wins. Wallner went down late - didn’t help. The issue is the rest of the gang……Miranda - Jeffers - Lee - Julien - Lewis - Castro, they all produced very little over either a few months or at a minimum, the last few weeks. One night Team had 7 hits from top 3 guys in line-up (Buxton - Larnach - Correa) and ZERO from the remaining 6 guys……Lewis got a PH. That lack of contribution from “the cast” is what is of concern to me, not Buxton & Correa’s salary nor their performance.

[LambchoP]

I'm a bit worried about next year. Pitching wise we could really use a veteran starter and a couple arms in the pen, especially a lefty or two. Offensively, they need to change up some things. We're going to need a real first baseman, and I don't feel confident about any of our second base options right now. We're also going to need a true center fielder to split time with Buxton. That's a lot of needs with no money to do it. Maybe they try to trade Paddack and Vasquez for salary relief? They'd have to include some prospects in order to get any team to take these guys. I think Correa's 37 million a year is really crippling our options, but you need a guy like that to lead a young team like ours. Just think he's a bit overpaid, he's probably worth around 20 million a year, not double that....

[Post-Concussive Blues]

I think Paddack has excess value—he would easily get 7.5 million in free agency as a back end starter with upside. He looked really good, at times. I would rather keep him than trade him and sign someone only slightly cheaper.