Rays 2, Twins 1: Lineup Mediocrity "Springs" Eternal

[Hans Birkeland]

With Cleveland playing better ball, and Kansas City in freefall, the Twins looked to keep pace in the Central standings. They took a brief lead against Tampa Bay and starter Jeffrey Springs, but their lineup couldn't muster much of anything the rest of the way, finishing with just four hits as the Rays scraped together just enough offense against David Festa to take game two of the series.

Image courtesy of © Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: David Festa: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB 7 K (90 Pitches, 57 Strikes, 63.3%)
Home Runs: Carlos Santana (19)
Bottom 3 WPA: Brooks Lee (-.229), Willi Castro (-.211) Ryan Jeffers (-.145)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

Following a gutty win over the Rays at the "Trop" on Labor Day, the Twins once again found themselves in second place in the AL Central, and were suddenly winners of three of their last four games (do not look up their run differential in that span). A series split with the Rays in St. Petersburg would have to be considered a minor victory, and the Twins had a chance to clinch at least that result on Tuesday.

Lefty Jeffrey Springs took the mound for the Rays, in his seventh start back from Tommy John surgery. That injury was unfortunate, because before it, Springs (who had no prospect pedigree and was acquired from Boston for next to nothing in 2021) had posted a 2.26 ERA over 151 1/3 innings across 2022 and 2023. His fastball was never elite in terms of velocity, but he is averaging less than 90 MPH this year, after sitting close to 92 MPH prior to his surgery.

Springs looked pretty good tonight, mixing in his slider and changeup with well-located fastballs that sat 89-93 MPH. He couldn't get a 90 MPH fastball inside enough to Carlos Santana in the second, and the Twins first baseman made him pay, demolishing that pitch 395 feet for the game's first run.

David Festa opposed Springs, and looked a little wobbly with his command from the start. He did throw a scoreless first three innings, but the Rays got to him in the fourth. Junior Caminero began the inning with a single, and Josh Lowe walked. Festa got Johnny DeLuca to pop out, but Jonathan Aranda blooped a single just in front of a diving Austin Martin, who didn't appear to get a great break on the ball. Jos'e Caballero then grounded to Brooks Lee at short, and the rookie made an athletic play to cut down the speedy Lowe at home plate, who was running on contact. It was all for naught, though, as rookie catcher Logan Driscoll--making his major-league debut--rocketed a ball at Santana, and the usually sure-handed first baseman had the ball deflect off of him into right field to allow Aranda to score.

Festa's best sequence may have been his last, as he struck out uber-prospect Caminero on a fastball up and in to end his evening. He began this at-bat with two sliders, two changeups, two more sliders and then the piece de resistance, a fastball with big carry that the talented Caminero had no chance on.

Neither team threatened much in the middle innings, with Springs Tommy John rehab partner Drew Rasmussen taking over in the seventh and throwing fireballs at Twins hitters for two innings. Caleb Thielbar and Michael Tonkin held the Rays in check.

The Twins made some noise in the ninth against Edwin Uceta. Santana led off with a single, and Edouard Julien blooped a single just over second base to put two men on for Lee. Lee looked overmatched as Uceta poured fastballs by him in different quadrants, striking him out on three pitches (with a pitch clock violation thrown in for fun). Willi Castro then struck out on a ball at his feet, and Christian Vazquez grounded out to end the game.

Trends:

	Healthy	Hurt
Performing
Contributing
Low Impact
IL/Minors
C	Ryan Jeffers 📈	Christian Vazquez 📈
1B	Carlos Santana 📈	Alex Kirilloff 📉	Jose Miranda 📈
2B	Edouard Julien 📈	Kyle Farmer 📈'
3B	Royce Lewis 📈
SS	Carlos Correa 📉	Brooks Lee 📈
LF	Matt Wallner 📈	Trevor Larnach 📈	Austin Martin 📉
CF	Byron Buxton 📈	Manuel Margot 📉
RF	Max Kepler 📉
UTIL	Willi Castro 📈	Michael Helman 📈
SP	Pablo Lopez 📈	Bailey Ober 📈	Joe Ryan 📉	Chris Paddack 📈	Louie Varland 📈
RSP	David Festa 📈	Zebby Matthews 📉	Simeon Woods Richardson 📉
CR	Jhoan Duran 📉	Griffin Jax 📈
SR	Brock Stewart 📉	Jorge Alcala 📉	Cole Sands 📈
MR	Caleb Thielbar 📈	Scott Blewett 📈	Michale Tonkin 📈
LR	Josh Winder 📈	Ronny Henriquez 📈	Randy Dobnak 📉	Diego Castillo 📈

 

Stray Notes:
-Michael Helman collected his first major league hit, a grounder in the fifth that Caballero threw wildly to first on, but which the speedy Helman likely would have beaten out even with a good throw.
-Tonkin gave the Twins some good work and allowed them to keep the game close in the middle innings, getting four outs and striking out two without allowing a hit.
-The Twins and Rays have played to a one run result in every matchup thus far this year over five games. That's pretty weird.

What’s Next: In game three of this key series, the Rays send Cole Sulser to the mound. It's unofficial, for the moment, but the Twins appear poised to counter with Louie Varland, who comes back from yet another stint in St. Paul still stretched out and starting.

Postgame Interviews:

 

Bullpen Usage Chart:

	FRI	SAT	SUN	MON	TUE	TOT
Tonkin	0	37	0	0	21	58
Blewett	0	54	0	0	0	54
Jax	3	0	27	18	0	48
Durán	11	0	13	14	0	38
Thielbar	0	19	0	0	19	38
Alcalá	0	0	0	32	0	32
Sands	0	0	13	17	0	30
Henríquez	0	0	0	20	0	20
Castillo	8	0	0	0	12	20

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[thelanges5]

Let Larnach hit. I get the platoons but the rays did that to get Larnach out of the lineup and it worked. 
 

0-5 with RISP was the difference. Not sure how we get better here, but that is a huge difference between us (#20) and KC (#3) and Cleveland. (#6)

[Linus]

Man the Rays can produce good young players. I was worried that the young starters were going to be a problem. Not so - this lineup needs a re make in the off season. I’m so done with “positional flexibility “.  They need to start finding positions that guys are actually good at. 

[gregens]

Minor correction.  The Twins got 2 hits in the 9th for a total of 6 hits, not that it mattered.

[USAFChief]

3 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Let Larnach hit. I get the platoons but the rays did that to get Larnach out of the lineup and it worked. 
 

0-5 with RISP was the difference. Not sure how we get better here, but that is a huge difference between us and KC  and Cleveland. 

And defense. Infielders in the outfield, a statue at 2nd  base.

Same slavish reliance on platoons, to the point Helman is in RF.

Wallner and Larnach 1 PA each. 

Where's the flouncer?

[Mike Sixel]

STOP PLATOONING YOUR ONLY GOOD HITTERS. 

[thelanges5]

Ryan Jeffers: 0-4, 2 K

Jose Miranda: 0-4, K

Willi Castro: 0-4, 2 K

We should be talking about how well Festa pitched but the poor offense is the story. 

[Aerodeliria]

18 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

And defense. Infielders in the outfield, a statue at 2nd  base.

Same slavish reliance on platoons, to the point Helman is in RF.

Wallner and Larnach 1 PA each. 

Where's the flouncer?

It looked like a circus in the outfield...that was a very ugly way to lose...

[RonJ64]

I've also been noticing that teams pretty much run on us at will. Believe me, if we enter the playoffs, this will be a factor. Good teams find a way to take advantage of your weaknesses. The inability to throw out runners is getting embarrassing. Singles turn into doubles pretty quickly. I know there is way more wrong with this team and people are definitely talking about those things. I don't see a lot of people talking about this glaring weekness though. I'm losing hope that Correa is going to come back and be the savior. I really like him, but I have a suspicion that the front office knows more behind the scenes then they are letting on. We get very few updates thrown our way. Getting Buxton back should help, but we need not only a healthy Buxton, but also a fairly healthy Correa and I'm not holding my breath. This team is OK, but just ok. I don't see them going very far in the playoffs. I hope I'm wrong. 

[h2oface]

What a sad game.

If Festa has players that actually can play average defense, he probably gets out of the 4th. Martin can't really play defense well at any position. Amazing that when they traded for him he was a SS. Errors that don't get scored errors. And Santana has to make that play at first. Gold glover, as he is being hyped as? Then he really has to make the play. I remember quite a few plays like this this season, where there is no error, but he could have picked the throw at first, or made the play in the field, and it wasn't scored an error. Yes, he has made some fine plays, too. But really, professional baseball players are supposed to be great in the field if you ask me, like Lee's catch and throw home for the out. Great play. That is all they have done all their life. Play baseball. Helman's throw was comical. Even if you are not playing in the Show, defensive responsibility is the same at all levels. Hero complex is not a good look first game ever. The Twin's love the guy that never made it up. Even if they might have someone better for the call up.

I really hope these guys start acting like they want to be a playoff team, and that means scoring more than 1 or 2 or 3 runs a game, and making the plays that are there to make in the field. This was a really boring baseball game to watch again. At least Thielbar didn't blow it up. And new/old guy, Tonkin. As unreliable as the top tier of relief was for the recent home stand, when you have Festa only allowing 2 in 5 (and that was really on the defense to a large degree), and Thielbar and Tonkin and Castillo putting up zeros and totally shutting the Rays down, you can't waste it.

[h2oface]

7 minutes ago, RonJ64 said:

I've also been noticing that teams pretty much run on us at will. Believe me, if we enter the playoffs, this will be a factor. Good teams find a way to take advantage of your weaknesses. The inability to throw out runners is getting embarrassing. Singles turn into doubles pretty quickly. I know there is way more wrong with this team and people are definitely talking about those things. I don't see a lot of people talking about this glaring weekness though. I'm losing hope that Correa is going to come back and be the savior. I really like him, but I have a suspicion that the front office knows more behind the scenes then they are letting on. We get very few updates thrown our way. Getting Buxton back should help, but we need not only a healthy Buxton, but also a fairly healthy Correa and I'm not holding my breath. This team is OK, but just ok. I don't see them going very far in the playoffs. I hope I'm wrong. 

Do they even have a winning record if you take the White Sox's games out?

[S Bart]

AS they mentioned on the SKOR North Podcast today, Correa and the Twins have stated nothing about his progress since he made the remark about his planter faucitis (he connected it to his ankle) injury 1 1/2 weeks ago. 

[tony&rodney]

Festa pitched really well. I sure hope he can continue this for another 4-5 starts this month.

[knothole61]

A sad and seemingly uninspired loss tonight in Tampa. I've been confident until now, but I'm about ready to concede the Division to Cleveland. I thought that the Guardians would sputter against KC but they are back to their winning ways based on solid pitching, some power, and pesky small-ball at times. Poor KC has been in a death spiral since losing a very good ball player in Vinnie Pasquantino.   

You simply can't go down to Tampa and lay an egg against an out-of-contention team before a sparse crowd when you are in the midst of a genuine pennant race. Rocco, play a hunch man--take a chance and throw caution to the wind just once. For the rest of September make a bonfire of your charts and graphs. Lose your "modest stillness and humility" and instead "imitate the action of the tiger." Oh, and let Buxton back even if he's only 99% healed.

I believe that the Twins will play in October but the path to the World Series is much less fraught for a division winner than a wild card.    

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, thelanges5 said:

Let Larnach hit. I get the platoons but the rays did that to get Larnach out of the lineup and it worked. 
 

0-5 with RISP was the difference. Not sure how we get better here, but that is a huge difference between us (#20) and KC (#3) and Cleveland. (#6)

Everyone but Rocco knew why the Rays did that.

[thelanges5]

Going to see Buck and E-Rod play for the Saints on Weds. Maybe they should both come up this weekend to shore up the outfield defense. 

[Aerodeliria]

53 minutes ago, h2oface said:

What a sad game.

If Festa has players that actually can play average defense, he probably gets out of the 4th. Martin can't really play defense well at any position. Amazing that when they traded for him he was a SS. Errors that don't get scored errors. And Santana has to make that play at first. Gold glover, as he is being hyped as? Then he really has to make the play. I remember quite a few plays like this this season, where there is no error, but he could have picked the throw at first, or made the play in the field, and it wasn't scored an error. Yes, he has made some fine plays, too. But really, profession baseball players are supposed to be great in the field if you ask me, like Lee's catch and throw home for the out. Great play. That is all they have done all their life. Play baseball. Helman's throw was comical. Even if you are not playing in the Show, defensive responsibility is the same at all levels. Hero complex is not a good look first game ever. The Twin's love the guy that never made it up. Even if they might have someone better for the call up.

I really hope these guys start acting like they want to be a playoff team, and that means scoring more than 1 or 2 or 3 runs a game, and making the plays that are there to make in the field. This was a really boring baseball game to watch again. At least Thielbar didn't blow it up. And new/old guy, Tonkin. As unreliable as the top tier of relief was for the recent home stand, when you have Festa only allowing 2 in 5 (and that was really on the defense to a large degree), and Thielbar and Tonkin and Castillo putting up zeros and totally shutting the Rays down, you can't waste it.

What was Martin doing out there? Updating his profile pic on X? When I found the video, it said, 'Fly ball single to center,' so I expected one of those unfortunate bloops. Instead, it's a normal fly ball to left but Martin is frozen and then does his cartwheel (or whatever that was) at the last moment.

[Fatbat]

14 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Going to see Buck and E-Rod play for the Saints on Weds. Maybe they should both come up this weekend to shore up the outfield defense. 

They will probably go 4 for 9 combined with a BB  and a few rbi tomorrow.  Erod is gonna have fun playing in the same lineup as buck!

[Fatbat]

The lack of runs and the oooo fers on RISP is embarrassing. 

[Althebum82]

Festa is, in baby-step fashion, for the most part proving to live up to his hype.  Tonkin appears to be a timely pickup.  Thielbar did his part this time.....but every time he makes an appearance I keep wondering what keeps him on the roster besides nostalgia and being left-handed.  Castillo will be rewarded for his effort this time by being DFA'd again or otherwise returning to St Paul to make room for Varland.  

It is fun to watch effective pitching, but I am not holding my breath for that to happen next game with a Varland start.

[Mark G]

5 hours ago, RonJ64 said:

I've also been noticing that teams pretty much run on us at will. Believe me, if we enter the playoffs, this will be a factor. Good teams find a way to take advantage of your weaknesses. The inability to throw out runners is getting embarrassing. Singles turn into doubles pretty quickly. I know there is way more wrong with this team and people are definitely talking about those things. I don't see a lot of people talking about this glaring weekness though. I'm losing hope that Correa is going to come back and be the savior. I really like him, but I have a suspicion that the front office knows more behind the scenes then they are letting on. We get very few updates thrown our way. Getting Buxton back should help, but we need not only a healthy Buxton, but also a fairly healthy Correa and I'm not holding my breath. This team is OK, but just ok. I don't see them going very far in the playoffs. I hope I'm wrong. 

I agree completely.  In looking at the box score one of the things that stuck out the most was the 4 stolen bases, including 3rd base as well.  Was it Festa not holding them on, or was it Jeffers not making the throw?  A little bit of both maybe?  Either way, the word will get around the league pretty fast that you can run on this guy; we have to take a look at it.  The 4 extra bases can come back to bight you more times than not.  

[Riverbrian]

9 hours ago, Linus said:

Man the Rays can produce good young players. I was worried that the young starters were going to be a problem. Not so - this lineup needs a re make in the off season. I’m so done with “positional flexibility “.  They need to start finding positions that guys are actually good at. 

Yep

We need to find guys that can field one position, they also need to hit and they can never get hurt and they can't cost a lot. 😉

[mikelink45]

Festa deserved better and MLB scoring is really bugging me.  Errors are errors - are they trying to not insult players?  Festa suffered from bad gloves and Martin has really disappointed me.  He is not an OF and seemingly he is not an IF, maybe its time to move on.  Just as I have spent the year writing about Keirsey, I am joining the commenter who calls for really OF call ups.  We need gloves as well as bats.

 

[TwinsDr2021]

3 hours ago, Mark G said:

I agree completely.  In looking at the box score one of the things that stuck out the most was the 4 stolen bases, including 3rd base as well.  Was it Festa not holding them on, or was it Jeffers not making the throw?  A little bit of both maybe?  Either way, the word will get around the league pretty fast that you can run on this guy; we have to take a look at it.  The 4 extra bases can come back to bight you more times than not.  

The steal of 3rd was all on Festa, the others probably a bit of both.

[big dog]

I watched the game late at night. I ended it thinking "I stayed up this late to see two runners on, nobody out, followed by two bad at-bats and a Vasquez PH?" Very disappointing.

[Whitey333]

Yes Festa needs to do a better job of holding runners on.  However, the Twins have been very poor at defending steals most of the year.  The word has been out for quite some time.  In this regard it looks like Junior Varsity base stealing defense.  

Festa did fine.  U inspiring performance for the team as a whole.  

[karcherd]

This loss was due to this team's slavish devotion to analytics and shows what will happen in the playoffs.  Roster construction is devoted to position flexibility so you end up having three infielders playing the outfield.  Stolen bases are not valued on defense or offense according to the analytics or is the sacrifice bunt.

The team refuses to develop players and make them full time players.  You sit two of your hottest hitters and when they do come in you pinch hit for one with Vasquez.  By sitting Wallner and Larnach, you then have no bench players to fill the role of pinch runner for Santana in the 9th inning.  We need regular every day players and fill the bench with specific roles in mind.  And if someone goes down call up somebody that can actually play that position.  We don't need  three utility players on the roster.  When Castro and Santana lead your team in AB's, you are not going to win consistently.  Even without injuries they still would have been in the top 5 in plate appearances.

They can't just keep dismissing the running game, teams are starting to take advantage of this.  Putting runners in scoring position so easily is leading to runs and not helping the pitcher out.  We need to start to being a little more aggressive as well, sometimes just starting a runner keeps you out of the double play.

Why not have Lee bunt the runners over, you then have two runners in scoring position and put pressure on the pitcher and defense.  I probably would bunt more than a lot of people on this board would, but how can you not bunt in that situation.  Rocco's explanation basically just confirms that he was playing for the home run again.

This team will have some success with their philosophy in the regular season because the odds say if you do x action so many times it will have success x percent of the time.  But you can't do that in the playoffs, you need your best and regular players to step up and win the game.  Last night is what a playoff game would be like, they will keep trying to playing the odds and in a short series you will lose.

Are they going to turn ERod and Jenkins into platoon players if they continue to develop as they have been.

 

[Riverbrian]

There is no gaurentee of performance no matter what move is made. However... I do want to point out that a sequence of left-right-left on the mound will paint us in the ninth inning corner every time. A sequence of right-left-right will also paint us in the ninth inning corner. 

Larnach has 17 total plate appearances vs left handed pitching. Those 17 appearances have been scattered over 14 games. An AB here and a AB there is scattered to the point of atrophy. 

Christian Vazquez is hitting .205 vs left handers. OPS of .568 but he does he stand in the right handed batters box. 

If you put Larnach in the game with 1 out in the 7th on the road. Just two players reaching base in the next 2.2 innings is going to bring him to the plate in the 9th. When the team is on the road... the team will bat in the 9th. 

You had 4 left handers on the bench and Vazquez.3 of the left handers were already in the game with Kepler injured. 

Cleavinger was coming. Vazquez was the only option. 

Again... I'm not saying that anything else was guaranteed success but all of these moves are made to increase odds. You plum run out of increased odds by the time the 9th inning rolls around. I wish that Rocco would save his bullets. 

Here's an interesting thought or question. If Vazquez would have singled and tied the game... forcing it to 10 innings. Assuming Kepler is hurt.

Who plays LF in the 10th? Where does Vazquez play?

My guess is Lewis goes to LF because he would have been the only option left and Vazquez would then be our 3B in the 10th.  

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Ryan Jeffers: 0-4, 2 K

Jose Miranda: 0-4, K

Willi Castro: 0-4, 2 K

We should be talking about how well Festa pitched but the poor offense is the story. 

Exactly - guys gotta hit - pinch hitting & platooning are not the problem…….guys not getting the job done is the problem.

I rarely say anything negative about how games are managed, but not moving guys over with 2 on and no outs is something I don’t understand after the 6th inning. Instead, a strikeout in that situation OR a potential double play kill the opportunity or at least make it extremely difficult to benefit from - we went with the strikeout.

[JD-TWINS]

5 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

There is no gaurentee of performance no matter what move is made. However... I do want to point out that a sequence of left-right-left on the mound will paint us in the ninth inning corner every time. A sequence of right-left-right will also paint us in the ninth inning corner. 

Larnach has 17 total plate appearances vs left handed pitching. Those 17 appearances have been scattered over 14 games. An AB here and a AB there is scattered to the point of atrophy. 

Christian Vazquez is hitting .205 vs left handers. OPS of .568 but he does he stand in the right handed batters box. 

If you put Larnach in the game with 1 out in the 7th on the road. Just two players reaching base in the next 2.2 innings is going to bring him to the plate in the 9th. When the team is on the road... the team will bat in the 9th. 

You had 4 left handers on the bench and Vazquez.3 of the left handers were already in the game with Kepler injured. 

Cleavinger was coming. Vazquez was the only option. 

Again... I'm not saying that anything else was guaranteed success but all of these moves are made to increase odds. You plum run out of increased odds by the time the 9th inning rolls around. I wish that Rocco would save his bullets. 

Here's an interesting thought or question. If Vazquez would have singled and tied the game... forcing it to 10 innings. Assuming Kepler is hurt.

Who plays LF in the 10th? Where does Vazquez play?

My guess is Lewis goes to LF because he would have been the only option left and Vazquez would then be our 3B in the 10th.  

The one flip side that is never discussed is that you get the guy on the mound, who is often in a good rhythm, out of the game. Potentially, this is an advantage today …….. and seeing the other guy may keep him from being available tomorrow. Not perfect argument but part of the thinking in a 162 game season.