Was the Manuel Margot Investment Worth It for the Twins?

[Cody Pirkl]

The Twins brought in Manny Margot to platoon and fill in at center field this spring. The cost wasn’t high, but has the juice been worth the gentle squeeze?
 

Image courtesy of John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins decided to trade for Manuel Margot this spring, as Michael A. Taylor’s free-agency staredown dragged on. Instead of signing a platoon outfielder, the Twins swapped crowded-out assets with the Dodgers, sending Noah Miller to get Margot and minor-league infielder Rayne Doncon. Los Angeles also covered part of Margot’s salary. With such a low acquisition cost, has Margot been worth it?

The Twins' main priority in adding Margot was obtaining a right-handed bat to patrol the outfield. Ideally, this hitter would also be able to fill in at center field, which is likely why the Twins looked at a Margot-type player, instead of a traditional bat-first corner outfield type.

Margot has adequately filled the offensive need. He typically leads off against left-handed pitchers and has posted a .728 OPS in those matchups, about 6% above the league average. It’s nothing to write home about, but it is much better than taking any given left-handed hitter and putting them in those matchups. By definition, he's above replacement-level.

Defensively, the Twins have been very fortunate with Byron Buxton’s health. It was apparent immediately that Margot was not an option to play frequently in center, once the Twins saw him in the outfield. He’s still played there occasionally, and is worth -1 Outs Above Average there. Unfortunately, Margot has been pretty brutal everywhere, with a -1 mark in right field and a -3 mark in left. By Outs Above Average, he's been worse than Matt Wallner, whose reputation as a hulking, slow defensive player is at least outweighed by his offensive ceiling. 

Worth noting in the acquisition cost is that the trade to acquire Margot has gone the Twins' way, regardless of his performance. Noah Miller looks like a tremendous defender at shortstop, but whether he can hit in MLB is still a concern. His .668 OPS in High-A this season is his best since his debut professional season, but it's still deeply unimpressive. Meanwhile, Doncon has been very successful since his arrival. An .838 OPS earned him a promotion to High-A, where his bat is still roughly 15% above league average. It’s possible the Twins would trade Miller for Doncon straight up today, if they magically had the chance to do it again.

Has Margot been worth it himself, though? It depends on how you look at it. The actual cost was meager. The opportunity cost is the real question. As a competing team, the Twins are likely looking to win trades on the MLB side, rather than in the exchange of low minor-league players. 

Looking just at Margot, it’s hard to call it a success. His performance against left-handed pitching has met the bare minimum threshold of being positive, but it’s easy to argue that the defense has greatly outweighed his bat. A different player (such as Tommy Pham, with his .865 OPS against lefties) would have certainly fit the poor fielding corner outfield role much better. With Margot so thinly holding onto an above-average line against lefties, one could argue that an internal option could have filled that role just as well.

The Twins' record likely doesn’t look much different without Margot. He’s certainly had a handful of big moments, but these haven’t entirely outweighed the negatives, as evidenced by his -0.1 Wins Above Replacement, according to Fangraphs. Margot is also well in the negatives for Win Probability Added, which is to be expected considering his being approximately 0 for 100 pinch-hitting.

Under different financial circumstances, the Twins likely would have aimed higher in the offseason, or even added a replacement for Margot at the trade deadline. In this version of reality, though, the Twins bet on a bounceback from Margot this spring, and it’s not been particularly impactful, one way or the other.

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Was Margot a worthwhile addition to the Twins? Should they have added a Tommy Pham or rolled with someone like Michael Helman internally? Does the Doncon return make up for Margot’s production? Let us know below!

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[Linus]

Margot reminds me of Farmer in that they were brought in to fill an important back up role and neither did. He’s been barely passable with the bat even being platooned and his fielding has been disappointing. Twins might get lucky on Doncon. 

[mikelink45]

I will take Doncon, but otherwise I cannot think that Keisey would have been of lesser value and bringing up Julien for Buxton does not make sense.    

[Karbo]

The biggest problem I see is Margot blocking the path to the majors for youngsters. I don't have the stats but the eye test tells me Martin could do about the same and has more positional flexibility. Margot has hit better lately so in reality it's not as bad of a value than Farmer.

[USAFChief]

.241/.294/.345.

Crappy defense.

3rd most games played on the team.

What's not to like?

[CRF]

No. Play...the...kids. 

[DocBauer]

As a RH hitter who has been solid against LHP? He's been just fine. Even very good at times. He's actually made some quality plays in the OF, but also made some very poor ones. So defense is a wash.

Getting him for only $4M, and a solid prospect back in return, has been just fine for 2024. Not great. Not exciting, but just fine. 

I'd really like to see the Twins shoot higher for 2025 though. 

I'm not sold on Martin to be that guy. I have hopes. I mean, he's still only a rookie feeling his way. He could turn a real corner for 2025 and be THAT GUY. He has the range for CF...LF of course...but for every quality play he's made in the OF, he's probably made 2 bad reads/routes that have lead to big hits for the opposition. Ditto at 2B, though he's looked better there lately, IMO.

He's not really hitting, has displayed little to no power, and has an OPS about 50 points below league average. What's most concerning is that for THIS SEASON at least, he's actually performed worse against LHP.

Margot has been solid. He's actually been a benefit against LHP no matter how frustrated some fans been with him. But he won't be back in 2025. 

But somehow, FA or trade, the Twins really need to come up with a RH OF who can beat up LHP, and not be embarrassed against RHP. Just betting on Martin making major improvement does nothing for next season's roster/lineup. 

[ashbury]

Margot's defensive skills seem to have eroded from his previously fine reputation, and his offense has been subpar.  I suspect the Twins could have gotten similar offense from DaShawn Keirsey and better defense as a bonus, without consuming the precious payroll headroom that Margot cost.  So no, he's not been worth it.

The swap of infield prospects is a head-scratching add-on that we won't see play out for several more seasons, likely.

[nicksaviking]

51 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Margot's defensive skills seem to have eroded from his previously fine reputation, and his offense has been subpar.  I suspect the Twins could have gotten similar offense from DaShawn Keirsey and better defense as a bonus, without consuming the precious payroll headroom that Margot cost.  So no, he's not been worth it.

The swap of infield prospects is a head-scratching add-on that we won't see play out for several more seasons, likely.

And if not Keirsey, than you try Michael Helman. Then Will Holland.

As far as players go, I chose quality over quantity, but quality wasn't an option here, so they should have gone with the guys with options to cycle through and keep the roster flexible.

[JD-TWINS]

57 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

As a RH hitter who has been solid against LHP? He's been just fine. Even very good at times. He's actually made some quality plays in the OF, but also made some very poor ones. So defense is a wash.

Getting him for only $4M, and a solid prospect back in return, has been just fine for 2024. Not great. Not exciting, but just fine. 

I'd really like to see the Twins shoot higher for 2025 though. 

I'm not sold on Martin to be that guy. I have hopes. I mean, he's still only a rookie feeling his way. He could turn a real corner for 2025 and be THAT GUY. He has the range for CF...LF of course...but for every quality play he's made in the OF, he's probably made 2 bad reads/routes that have lead to big hits for the opposition. Ditto at 2B, though he's looked better there lately, IMO.

He's not really hitting, has displayed little to no power, and has an OPS about 50 points below league average. What's most concerning is that for THIS SEASON at least, he's actually performed worse against LHP.

Margot has been solid. He's actually been a benefit against LHP no matter how frustrated some fans been with him. But he won't be back in 2025. 

But somehow, FA or trade, the Twins really need to come up with a RH OF who can beat up LHP, and not be embarrassed against RHP. Just betting on Martin making major improvement does nothing for next season's roster/lineup. 

To me, that OF that can hit LH pitching and not look bad against RH pitching is Willi Castro……….Could be Royce Lewis as well.

Gotta assume Lee will play on the dirt for the Twins on a regular basis in ‘25. 3B or 2B?

Keaschall - Julien - Martin …..or somebody new at 2B?

Margot, if he played less and was used more as a straight platoon guy he wouldn’t be so beat up here on TD. Problem is other circumstances have forced Team to use him a bunch.

Buxton hurt early - Kepler hurt early - Larnach hurt early - Correa out 2 different times - Lewis hurt a bunch - Wallner couldn’t hit - Julien couldn’t hit……the infielder issues pulled Castro out of the Outfield. The Outfield issues forced Margot to play more & more. They didn’t sign him with the expectation he’d have 3rd most games played……,he was to be a depth bat and a platoon v. lefties.

[Brandon]

I think the Twins were determined to get a veteran CF back up on a 1-year deal.  Taylor wasn't budging off of his demands, so he was the best option in the eyes of management.  I think he was supposed to be the backup CF when we got him.  but he has been ok as a 1 year back up of stop gap.  I doubt he is blocking anyone.  If the Twins thought Keirsey could handle it, he would have been given opportunities.  I think the role will go to Martin and Castro next year.  also, E Rod will be pushing for a spot at some point next year.  Margot is definitely not a game changer.  And with his OF defense in sharp decline, his career at the MLB level will not last long either.  

[mikelink45]

5 minutes ago, Brandon said:

I think the Twins were determined to get a veteran CF back up on a 1-year deal.  Taylor wasn't budging off of his demands, so he was the best option in the eyes of management.  I think he was supposed to be the backup CF when we got him.  but he has been ok as a 1 year back up of stop gap.  I doubt he is blocking anyone.  If the Twins thought Keirsey could handle it, he would have been given opportunities.  I think the role will go to Martin and Castro next year.  also, E Rod will be pushing for a spot at some point next year.  Margot is definitely not a game changer.  And with his OF defense in sharp decline, his career at the MLB level will not last long either.  

I agree, but looking at Taylor's 200 average he was not worth the investment either.  This was the place for another rookie to come in. 

[Brandon]

3 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I agree, but looking at Taylor's 200 average he was not worth the investment either.  This was the place for another rookie to come in. 

Yes and no.  A good rookie that you want to get playing time should come up when there is consistent playing time during an injury.  You don’t want to start a rookie off as the bench piece.  You move a veteran in decline to bench or someone who has experience and you know what they can and can’t do at the major league level.  Coming off the bench is hard to do.  Look at how bad other teams bench players are and you will gain a better appreciation of how good our bench has been.   

[Rufus]

The Twins always manage to get prospect or two thrown in on every trade.  In this trade the throw in will probably be equal in what they gave up to get him.   The MLB Farm System ratings out today now have the Twins system rated #2.  It was in the 20's a couple of years ago.   I think the Twins front office is doing quite well in building a winning organization.

[mikelink45]

7 hours ago, Brandon said:

Yes and no.  A good rookie that you want to get playing time should come up when there is consistent playing time during an injury.  You don’t want to start a rookie off as the bench piece.  You move a veteran in decline to bench or someone who has experience and you know what they can and can’t do at the major league level.  Coming off the bench is hard to do.  Look at how bad other teams bench players are and you will gain a better appreciation of how good our bench has been.   

Keirsey is not a young AAA player - I suspect he would welcome a bench role - especially the Margot role where he has 104 games and 272 ABs so far,

[Beast]

The problem is (aside from poor defense) is that he’s not only seeing at bats against lefties from the bottom of the order.

His overall OPS over his last 30 games is .609. 

[Karbo]

9 hours ago, DocBauer said:

As a RH hitter who has been solid against LHP? He's been just fine. Even very good at times. He's actually made some quality plays in the OF, but also made some very poor ones. So defense is a wash.

Getting him for only $4M, and a solid prospect back in return, has been just fine for 2024. Not great. Not exciting, but just fine. 

I'd really like to see the Twins shoot higher for 2025 though. 

I'm not sold on Martin to be that guy. I have hopes. I mean, he's still only a rookie feeling his way. He could turn a real corner for 2025 and be THAT GUY. He has the range for CF...LF of course...but for every quality play he's made in the OF, he's probably made 2 bad reads/routes that have lead to big hits for the opposition. Ditto at 2B, though he's looked better there lately, IMO.

He's not really hitting, has displayed little to no power, and has an OPS about 50 points below league average. What's most concerning is that for THIS SEASON at least, he's actually performed worse against LHP.

Margot has been solid. He's actually been a benefit against LHP no matter how frustrated some fans been with him. But he won't be back in 2025. 

But somehow, FA or trade, the Twins really need to come up with a RH OF who can beat up LHP, and not be embarrassed against RHP. Just betting on Martin making major improvement does nothing for next season's roster/lineup. 

I agree with you, but I do think after some MLB experience I do expect Martin do be around avg. for the league next season. He's still raw in the OF but again, more experience should make him better.

[Doctor Wu]

I'd love to see Keirsey brought up and given a chance, but I'm not sure if he was the guy we needed to replace Michael A. Taylor, a player I liked a  lot but seeing his struggles with the Pirates this year, I'm happy that we didn't re-sign him. As for Margot he's been okay. Not as good as I'd hoped (I like him with Tampa Bay) but not nearly as bad as some folks think he's been. Sure, we can do better, but he's stayed healthy and has looked more productive the past couple of months, it's just a shame that he can't deliver in a pinch-hitting role. 

[MMMordabito]

Simple answer:

-0.6 bWAR = No

[Doctor Gast]

LAD wanted to flip Margot that they received in the Glasnow trade. Although Twins don't like to flip unneeded players they welcome other team's garbage. Martin was MLB ready but needed playing time & be handled as a rookie with kit gloves. But Margot got all the easy LHPs duty away from Martin. Worried about not enough RHH bats we ended up with an abundance where (RHH) Martin &  Miranda sat against LHPs. Rookie Martin who predominately faces RHPs has comparable batting stats as veteran Margot who faces predominantly faces LHPs.

Besides taking away easy LHPs ABs away from Martin, Margot has also taken a roster spot from Keirsey (CF). Besides bringing a high upgrade at CF, hot Keirsey would bring a hot LH bat where the Twins have desperately need against the majority RHPs that we face, Keirsey's call-up is well overdue but he's sitting at AAA because of Margot.

[Whitey333]

Margot sure doesn't move the needle much. He's been ok but easily replaceable with a minimum salary guy that ownership thrives on.

[Trov]

I think the question would be if we would have had someone better to fill Margot spot, not just has Margot been worth it.  Clearly we did not see anyone in FA that we felt was worth the cost or could afford it at least.  MAT was pretty bad for Pirates overall, much worse than what he did last year, as far as offense goes, but defense he was still good.  Margot was bad all around for most part.  Even worse is he has never got a pinch hit despite getting plenty chances against lefties.

However, did we have anyone in the minors that would have filled in better?  Martin maybe, but his defense has been not great and offense similar to Margot.  Who else would we have to be right hand hitting OF?  Really not too many in minors either. 

Was he worth it, time will tell if Miller becomes anything, but as to who else we most likely would have ran out there, MAT would have been better on defense, but offense the same.  Really, it would have been a wash from what I could see. 

[nicksaviking]

10 hours ago, Brandon said:

Yes and no.  A good rookie that you want to get playing time should come up when there is consistent playing time during an injury.  You don’t want to start a rookie off as the bench piece.  You move a veteran in decline to bench or someone who has experience and you know what they can and can’t do at the major league level.  Coming off the bench is hard to do.  Look at how bad other teams bench players are and you will gain a better appreciation of how good our bench has been.   

All the Twins bats get consistent playing time though. The catcher spot is the only player who ever sits out two full days in a row. Farmer has played in every game since his return.  Martin has played every game this month.

And you don't know what a guy can do when moved to the bench just because he's a veteran. Margot's pinch hitting futility this year is the stuff of legend.

[saviking]

Next year, move Lewis to the outfield as a right-handed bat to more than take Margot's place.  Move Correa to third to keep him healthy, Lee to short, Miranda to first base and I'll man second 😄

[Twins GFP]

13 hours ago, USAFChief said:

.241/.294/.345.

Crappy defense.

3rd most games played on the team.

What's not to like?

I would put his games played number due to the high number of injuries the Twins have had, going along with Wallner melting down at the beginning of the year, not to his stellar offensive performance.

[Road trip]

If 1 WAR is worth $8 million, Margot is worth -4.8 million this year.  I'm not a financial advisor, but that seems like a poor investment.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

No.

[LambchoP]

I'd say Twins won the trade because of Doncon, but Margot himself is saying definitely NO. He was brought in as a center field Buxton insurance and he hasn't done that. His defense has actually been bad out there, even in the corners for the most part. Recent "hot streak" aside, his bat isn't good enough for a starter either. He's mostly a slow singles hitter who doesn't steal bases. He should never be hitting leadoff, even against lefties. Worst part is, I think he's blocking some younger better talents. Both Martin and Castro are better defensively and Castro has a much better bat. Martin probably hits more too. Plus, I've got to believe without Margot, we would've finally seen what Keirsey can do in center field when Buxton went down. Calling up Julien for Buck makes no sense when we already have enough infielders, but no true center fielders. Give Keirsey a shot already, there's plenty of DFA candidates on our team to give him a roster spot.

[bean5302]

Still a negative WAR player who can't be used to cover the one position he was needed to cover. I struggle to see any real value Margot is providing to this team. He had that little blip of performance, but it was nothing more than that.

[NYCTK]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Martin was MLB ready

Is he though? I guess he's as ready as he will be. He's just not any good either. He's better than Margot by way of being on a minimum, so he's got that going for him. 

 

1 hour ago, LambchoP said:

I'd say Twins won the trade because of Doncon,

I don't know, he looks to be Terry Tiffee at best.