Why Is Trevor Larnach Hitting So High in the Twins Lineup?

[Nick Nelson]

The outfielder is having a good season, but not a great one, and his production doesn't stand out in the way you'd expect from a hitter who is consistently being used in the most crucial lineup spots.

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Following a series of tough, injury-plagued seasons, Trevor Larnach's emergence this year has been among the brightest storylines for the 2024 Twins. Finally healthy enough to stay on the field, Larnach is on track to set new career highs for games played and plate appearances by the end of this month. He's delivered some clutch knocks and some prodigious, highlight-reel drives. Without question, Larnach has been an essential fixture in the lineup.

Still, it does seem a little odd how preferential Rocco Baldelli has been toward Larnach in terms of lineup spots. The lefty slugger has made 47 starts in either the No. 2 or No. 3 spot in the lineup this year, which is more than any other Twins player save for Carlos Correa (52). Larnach hasn't made a start outside of a top-three spot in the order since May 5. This means he is regularly batting in front of guys like Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner, Byron Buxton and José Miranda, who have outperformed him by significant margins.

Larnach has been good. He hasn't been great. His .740 OPS is above-average, but not by much. Despite his ability to make high-quality contact and produce impressive exit velocities, he hasn't really hit for that much power, ranking sixth among Twins hitters in slugging percentage at .420 with zero extra-base hits in his past 10 games.

Now, I'm not one to make a big deal out of lineup construction, which is generally overblown in terms of actual run-scoring impact. But the usage of Larnach is interesting, and Baldelli's commitment to keeping him near the very top of the lineup has implications, which were exemplified at the end of Sunday's game.

Down two runs in the ninth, the bottom part of the Twins' lineup managed to load the bases with no outs against Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase. Willi Castro struck out, and so up came Larnach, who grounded into a game-ending double play while Lewis stood in the on-deck circle.

Look: I don't hate having Larnach up in that spot, and he put a fairly good swing up against Clase, but the next three players in the batting order behind him – Lewis, Wallner, Buxton – all have an OPS at least 100 points higher than his. Baldelli's batting lineups are prioritizing plate appearances for a good hitter in a lineup of great ones. He's surely aware of that.

In trying to understand this treatment – especially given what I know about Rocco's approach to managing – three possible explanations come to mind. I would guess that all three are playing a role in his continued steadfast adherence to this tendency.

Larnach is a better hitter than the statistics show.
The past is the past. When planning for the future, it's not about what someone's done; it's about what they're going to do. Just because other Twins players have outhit Larnach up to this point, that doesn't mean they will going forward.

Baldelli may believe that Larnach's most productive days are still ahead this season, and that's a well-founded belief. The outfielder's Statcast metrics are impressive, reflecting above-average measurables that border on elite in many areas. Of particular note: his xwOBA (.357) is in the 86th percentile among MLB players, and 33 points higher than his wOBA (.324). 

Even in a Statcast-slider-measuring contest, Larnach can't quite compete with the likes of Wallner or Lewis, but their performance gap is smaller through the lens of expected outcomes. That helps explain why Baldelli might be okay with the extra ABs Larnach stands to get, especially when you factor in the following:

Larnach brings a more prototypical stylistic presence to the top of the lineup.
Wallner, Lewis and Buxton are very good hitters, but all are punishing sluggers who go up there looking for pitches to destroy. That might also be true of Larnach, but to a lesser extent. He's developed into a guy who consistently puts forth pretty disciplined, competitive at-bats that result in solid contact. This wasn't always the case; in fact, it's been one of the coolest wrinkles of his improvement this season. Larnach carried a 34% career K-rate into this season but has struck out only 20% of the time in 2024.

He doesn't have a super-high walk rate, but he does work counts. He's seeing 3.96 pitches per plate appearance on average, which is second on the team behind the legendarily patient Carlos Santana. And again, this is on a team that mostly trends in the opposite direction: Minnesota hitters are seeing the seventh-fewest pitches per PA in baseball overall. 

I can see why Rocco would like to have a guy sitting in front of the mistake-hunting big boppers who is likely to see some pitches and get the opposing pitcher sweating. Then there is also the matter of making opposing managers sweat, which we know to be a Baldelli specialty.

Larnach's lefty bat plays into Baldelli's sequencing strategy.
Something Rocco loves to do with his lineups is bait opposing managers into bringing in relievers for situational spots, in order to set up the matchups he wants. It's a savvy technique in the age of three-batter minimums, and one we've seen pay off several times in the past.

As much as he clearly believes in Larnach's bat, one thing Baldelli will NOT do is let the outfielder bat against a left-handed pitcher, under almost any circumstance. Larnach has made only 13 plate appearances all year against a southpaw, with a full 95% of his PAs coming against righties. He's not going to face a left-hander late in a close game. Everyone knows it. But if an opposing team wants to call on a lefty reliever with Larnach stepping up to the plate, they'll have to pay the toll. 

Whenever Larnach is batting second or third, you are likely to find an imposing right-handed bat directly behind him in the lineup, and maybe a couple in a row. Baldelli would love for Lewis or Buxton to get a chance against a lefty reliever in a high-leverage late-game situation, and rightfully so. 

In thinking through these aspects of Larnach's fit in the batting order, I can start to see the logic in his consistent placement near the top. But I still think it's worth questioning and scrutinizing, especially if Minnesota's offense continues to sputter and slump. How much longer will Baldelli continue to buck convention by batting his fifth (sixth? seventh?) best hitter in lineup spots that should be reserved for your absolute best?

View full article

[Karbo]

Good point made. But who else would bat 2nd?

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I follow the belief you want your best hitters at the top.  Considering each spot in the batting order is worth 9-10 more PA over a full season (leadoff gets 10 more PA than 2nd spot, 2nd gets 10 more than 3rd, etc...) The lineup should look something like:

Lewis
Buxton
Correa
Wallner
Miranda

Then (somewhat interchangeable)
Castro
Jeffers
Larnach
Santana

Those top 5 are head and shoulders above the rest so far.  They should always be in the top spots when playing.

[tony&rodney]

Correa, when healthy, slides into the order behind the leadoff guy. Until that time, it looks like Larnach versus righties and Buxton versus lefties.

[LambchoP]

Call me old fashioned, but I tend to not care too much about EXPECTED stats or PROBABLE numbers. I care about actual numbers for what a guy has actually done. I get that some of our main guys have been hurt and on the IL. But when playing a very important game against someone like CLE, there is no reason to sit Royce Lewis on the bench and hit Margot leadoff! That is just bad management by Rocco. I also understand the need for occasional off days to keep guys healthy, but how many times have we seen Buxton AND Lewis sitting the same day? I won't even get into his bullpen management, putting Theilbar in to lose games. Does Rocco want to win, or has the mob paid him to purposely miss the playoffs?

[Road trip]

I think it is a lot of #3, with sequencing and pinch-hitting strategy.  Setting up a lineup to try to trap bullpen arms into unfavorable platoon scenarios via pinch-hitting seems to be his primary in-game tactic.  It works wonderfully (sarcasm...  see Margot's pinch-hitting numbers).

The right handed corollary to this article would be "Why does Margot always lead off vs LHP?", when it seems Willi Castro is better suited to the role, and has a higher OPS than Margot against lefties (.766 vs .728).  Yet Castro usually finds himself in the bottom third of the lineup vs lefties.  Go figure...🤔

[USAFChief]

"Something Rocco loves to do with his lineups is bait opposing managers into bringing in relievers for situational spots..."

 

Seriously?

 

You have that backwards. Rocco gets played three or four times per week, minimum. Opposing managers bait Rocco into removing his LH hitters at will. And we end up with Manny Margot getting multiple PAs, with a RH reliever in the game. 

 

Rocco wants Larnach hitting second because reasons, yet he has 8 more PAs this season than Margot.

 

 

[chpettit19]

If the third idea is a large part of the equation Rocco really needs to rethink this strategy. Margot is the right-handed hitter who replaces Larnach, and his pinch hitting numbers are well known. Handing the team a free out in order to get a lefty in there to face Lewis or Buxton isn't a great strategy. Buxton has an .836 OPS against lefties this year. .884 against righties. Lewis is at 1.079 against lefties. But still at .963 against righties. 

Just another thing to add to my complaint about the platooning. Buxton and Lewis are great hitters, they don't need the platoon advantage. Buxton is actually better against righties this year, and almost identical for his career (.779 against righties, .781 against lefties). Lewis is better against righties for his career, and even with the disparity this year, is over a .900 OPS against righties this year. So you're really not gaining any sort of significant advantage for those guys while running a guy who don't trust to hit lefties (Larnach) in the 2 hole only to supplant him later in the game with a guy who's 0-fer in pinch hitting this year. You're giving away an out and not getting anything back.

In yesterday's lineup the Guardians could've taken both Larnach and Wallner out of the game whenever they wanted just to get Lewis 1 AB against a lefty? Margot's automatic out, Lewis gets his 1 AB against a lefty, and then it's Martin against a lefty. That's advantage Guardians by a mile.

Put your great hitters at the top and quit trying to perfectly match your platoon and pinch hit situations because they rarely happen perfectly and you're actually making it really easy on the other team by being so predictable.

[Emjay]

He is the new Kirloff for Baldelli...another Rocco's pet project.. Not sure how many times Twins hitters have all but obliterated the lefty/righty analytics that Baldelli lives by. Yet, he keeps at hit, even when it means putting a subpar hitter that high up in the order. I agree, Larnach is more consistent and "slightly" more reliable thatn previously, but he is still prone to hitting in to DP's and he's just not trustworthy enough.

The whole lefty/righty matchup things has gotten Baldelli and this team into more trouble than anything; the guy just doesn't seem to know how to manage athletes or manage from instinct or gut

. Mister Moneyball is not the kind of manager the Twins have ever had and it's tough to watch sometimes. He just needs to go away and lets bring Toby Gardenhire up for a promotion!

[Linus]

What this article tells me is the Twins need better production from the corner outfielders. Hopefully Wallner is one answer but the Twins likely need one or two outfielders next year who aren’t in their system. 

[karcherd]

The Twins keep trying to get the optimal matchup for every bat.  While that sounds great in theory, it is not practical in reality.  You need to play your best players and if they are not good enough to win games either develop or trade for better players.  There is a time to make a move or moves in a game to optimize your chances for success but you can't do it for every AB.  And yes you can be strategic about giving players a day off here and there to maximize a particular matchup but you don't do it every day.

[bean5302]

I don't think it's accurate to say Larnach "is" better than his results. He was better than his already great results for a short period of time, but it feels like he's pretty much been as expected since then. Over his past 20 games back to July 10th, .254/.362/.407 OPS .769 wRC+ 124 seems reasonable.

He's definitely improved his value by being more aggressive at the plate in terms of swinging at borderline stuff, and just trying to make contact rather than waiting for what he thinks is the perfect 4 seam fastball to crush.

That said, Larnach is being heavily platooned. Even if he played 162 games in a year with how he's been utilized this year, he would not qualify by having 3.1 PA/G.

[bean5302]

Oh, back to the topic. Larnach puts the ball in play, and though he's a poor base runner due to his speed, maybe the Twins just value that? Larnach is probably more of a traditional #6 guy

[Karbo]

41 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Oh, back to the topic. Larnach puts the ball in play, and though he's a poor base runner due to his speed, maybe the Twins just value that? Larnach is probably more of a traditional #6 guy

I agree. Larnach has been a better than average "clutch" hitter over the last couple years. Even last year he was leading the Twins in RBI when he was sent down. I would move him down to more of a traditional run producing spot like 6th.

[mikelink45]

I join the others who could care less about "he is hitting better than the results show".  It is only results that win games.  No one posts FIP or WOBA to determine who wins a game!  Larnach is a nice player but in the bottom three in any batting order I would construct.

I also like the idea of good players playing against all pitchers and not the quick PH move that Rocco likes. 

[h2oface]

Using expected results instead of managing, is why you keep seeing Baldelli use 0'fer Margot pinch hitting. How do you like those actual results?

[Blyleven2011]

 

Larnach is having a better season  at the plate  , is it because he is seeing better pitches batting in front of Lewis  , Buxton  , wallner and Miranda  ,  could be the case  ...

Was a good laugh when I read that rocco's specialty is making the opposing manager sweat  , the only people that sweat are the fans , ( example ) Margot o'fer  pinch hitting  ...

[Shaitan]

Quote

Now, I'm not one to make a big deal out of lineup construction.

lol. what's the headline of this article, again?

[D.C Twins]

An even better question... 

Why does Margot lead off not-infrequently?!

[LiamC]

So I’ve seen a few comments bemoaning using expected rather than actual results—the point there is that while actual are a better indicator of how a batter has performed (as, y’know, they happened), expected results are better predictors about how a player will perform.

Anyway, I think it’s a bit of a moot point here, because Larnach’s expected stats are still below Lewis/Wallner/Buxton’s, I believes. Maybe there’s something to the patience/pitches per plate appearance? I vaguely remember broadcasts talking about the benefit of batting behind guys who take a lot of pitches—although at that point why not just switch Santana and Larnach? 

[terrydactyls]

I perceive in this article (and many others) that many people use "expected" value when a player is playing at a level below that expected result.  But when a player is on a hot streak, these same people suddenly throw out "expected" value and cheer for the use of the hot bat.  That's why I dislike advanced metrics.  Anyone can find some metric to prove almost any hypothetical.  I prefer using the tried and true KISS methodology (Keep It Simple, Stupid).  In short, go with the hot bat and let the cold bat sit for a day or two.

[Schmoeman5]

21 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I don't think it's accurate to say Larnach "is" better than his results. He was better than his already great results for a short period of time, but it feels like he's pretty much been as expected since then. Over his past 20 games back to July 10th, .254/.362/.407 OPS .769 wRC+ 124 seems reasonable.

He's definitely improved his value by being more aggressive at the plate in terms of swinging at borderline stuff, and just trying to make contact rather than waiting for what he thinks is the perfect 4 seam fastball to crush.

That said, Larnach is being heavily platooned. Even if he played 162 games in a year with how he's been utilized this year, he would not qualify by having 3.1 PA/G.

And what about those haters? 

[KBJ1]

It does seem like Rocco has toned down the analytics a bit lately and isn't wholesale substituting guys in the 5th inning. Margot, while still Offers pinch hitting, has been much better of late. But Castro, a switch hitter with speed should be leading off, period. 

When a hitter, any hitter, is seeing the ball well - go with the hot bat. If he is 0-3 with 3 K's, then pinch hit. Otherwise let you starters play. 

I also still think that our gaping hole in LF should be solved by putting Lewis out there. He would be better in LF than anyone else we have been putting out there and we have 2 other adequate 3B.

[mrcharlie]

One thing we are all not considering here.

Health.  Think of how many games where Buxton, Lewis and Correa have been available to play.  Putting together a lineup for 162 is much more involved than examining stat sheets to find your best lineup.  Just last night we saw Buxton pull himself from the game forcing Margot into action. (don't get me started on Buxton's fragility!).  I'm not a fan of Rocco's lineup construction but admire how the players have responded when called upon to step up.  To think the Twins offense ranks in the top ten of MLB given our optimal lineup has been out there for less than 30 games... stats don't tell that story.

[August J Gloop]

Quote

Down two runs in the ninth, the bottom part of the Twins' lineup managed to load the bases with no outs against Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase. Willi Castro struck out, and so up came Larnach, who grounded into a game-ending double play while Lewis stood in the on-deck circle.

Literally 2 inches further up the middle and the game is tied. Andres Gimenez gloved it when it was past him, and then his momentum allowed a double play. That's frickin baseball. The two decisive hits in the game were both accidents that 

The only thing in baseball a hitter can control is what pitches they swing at and how good a swing they put on them. Those combinations then create exit velos and launch angles. These aren't totally in the batter's control. Imperfections in the bat and ball can impact the contact, as well as atmospheric conditions. But It's generally close enough to say that a hitter who regularly makes good contact should be taking more at bats. Buxton and Larnach are tied at 31st overall in average exit velo. That means he consistently makes top contact in the league. He's been striking out less, ergo a pretty good number 2 hitter. 

23 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I join the others who could care less about "he is hitting better than the results show".  It is only results that win games.  No one posts FIP or WOBA to determine who wins a game!  Larnach is a nice player but in the bottom three in any batting order I would construct.

I also like the idea of good players playing against all pitchers and not the quick PH move that Rocco likes. 

Essentially what's being argued here is that even though Larnach can't control where the ball goes after he hits it, nor can he do anything about the skill of the defender he should not be judged on how good he is (and how much he's improved at) the actual skill he can put to bear. Instead we should judge him on the basically random outcome of contact events, and the defensive skill of a totally different player. 

[RpR]

2 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

I also still think that our gaping hole in LF should be solved by putting Lewis out there. He would be better in LF than anyone else we have been putting out there and we have 2 other adequate 3B.

He is a poor 3rd baseman, by what magic do you think he would be better in the outfile.d?

[mikelink45]

5 hours ago, August J Gloop said:

Literally 2 inches further up the middle and the game is tied. Andres Gimenez gloved it when it was past him, and then his momentum allowed a double play. That's frickin baseball. The two decisive hits in the game were both accidents that 

The only thing in baseball a hitter can control is what pitches they swing at and how good a swing they put on them. Those combinations then create exit velos and launch angles. These aren't totally in the batter's control. Imperfections in the bat and ball can impact the contact, as well as atmospheric conditions. But It's generally close enough to say that a hitter who regularly makes good contact should be taking more at bats. Buxton and Larnach are tied at 31st overall in average exit velo. That means he consistently makes top contact in the league. He's been striking out less, ergo a pretty good number 2 hitter. 

Essentially what's being argued here is that even though Larnach can't control where the ball goes after he hits it, nor can he do anything about the skill of the defender he should not be judged on how good he is (and how much he's improved at) the actual skill he can put to bear. Instead we should judge him on the basically random outcome of contact events, and the defensive skill of a totally different player. 

yup

[Rosterman]

The first three in the order are guys you always want to get five at bats in a game. The next two, maybe. On most fronts they should be everyday players. So guys can feed off pitching reads day-to-day.

Larnach, for some reason, doesn't swing at the first pitch. He does work the count, though. But wonder if that could be better served in the 5th or 6th position consistently.

Having Correa back would solve this lineup dilemma.

[August J Gloop]

On 8/13/2024 at 1:17 PM, RpR said:

He is a poor 3rd baseman, by what magic do you think he would be better in the outfile.d?

Because playing the outfield is orders of magnitude easier than the infield. The only limiter out there is athletic ability. Royce would have a cannon for a LF arm and likely some above average range. But that's not a mid season move. 

[RpR]

18 hours ago, August J Gloop said:

Because playing the outfield is orders of magnitude easier than the infield. The only limiter out there is athletic ability. Royce would have a cannon for a LF arm and likely some above average range. But that's not a mid season move. 

He does not have the range or arm for outfield and his fielding at third is lousy.