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LiamC

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Everything posted by LiamC

  1. LiamC
    RIP Winder, you will be missed
  2. LiamC
    So I’ve seen a few comments bemoaning using expected rather than actual results—the point there is that while actual are a better indicator of how a batter has performed (as, y’know, they happened), expected results are better predictors about how a player will perform. Anyway, I think it’s a bit of a moot point here, because Larnach’s expected stats are still below Lewis/Wallner/Buxton’s, I believes. Maybe there’s something to the patience/pitches per plate appearance? I vaguely remember broadcasts talking about the benefit of batting behind guys who take a lot of pitches—although at that point why not just switch Santana and Larnach?
  3. LiamC
    So, I haven’t got a perfect source for the chances of a run scoring from each baseout state, but according to pre-2015 data from Retrosheet I found here https://tangotiger.net/re24.html, it looks like a (very roughly) 60ish% chance that at least one run scores with a runner on 2nd and no outs, 65ish% that a runner scores from 3rd with 1 out, and 40ish% that a runner scores from 2nd with one out. The 60 and 65 would roughly correspond with the win percentages MLB gave (50/50 if game is tied, Twins win if a run scores). Based on those numbers, it seems a sac bunt would have to be successful around 80% of the time to be worth it. I also found an article that asked whether teams should bunt the ghost runner to third in extras (https://theanalyst.com/2023/03/should-mlb-teams-be-bunting-the-ghost-runner-to-third/#:~:text=The%20percentage%20of%20runners%20who,chosen%20to%20cut%20it%20loose.) and it suggested that doing might make sense! “The percentage of runners who have scored from second after a plate appearance with nobody out in innings one through nine is 64.3% when the team attempts to bunt and 58.8% when teams have chosen to cut it loose”.
  4. LiamC
    I was interested to see the win probability of that play! According to MLB’s tracker, the successful sacrifice bunt increased MIN’s win probability from 80.7% to 83.0%. Now I wonder what the swing would be the other way… I’m gonna go look some things up!
  5. LiamC
    As this seems to have been as well. Mistakes happen ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. Congrats to the Twins!! 2 out of 3 from the MLB-leading Phillies ain’t bad. Excited for our IL reinforcements to return! Also, if Duran pitches like he did today and Stewart returns to his pre-injury effectiveness (I thought he pitched mostly quite well today, with the exception of the walk, and even still was unlucky to give up a run) then I’ll start feeling a bit better about the pen!
  6. LiamC
    Thanks! Any reason why it doesn’t seem to get any mention in game recaps any more? I mean, 5 stories in a row of “The Twins Extend Their Record HR Streak” would be boring, but I’m surprised I couldn’t find any throwaway lines in any of the wraps of the past games mentioning it. Especially given how frequently it seemed to be brought up before they hit 20 straight!
  7. LiamC
    I’ve been travelling for the last week so haven’t been fully up to date, but I remember discussion about the team having hit HRs in a club-record number of games (eg https://twinsdaily.com/news-rumors/minnesota-twins/make-it-official-twins-5-tigers-3-minnesota-figures-out-skubal-mastery-r16517/?do=getNewComment&d=1&id=16517 the streak reaching 20 in this 5–3 win over Detroit). I haven’t seen any mentions of this streak in more recent games—did I miss the game where it broke? Or is something else going on?
  8. LiamC
    Seems like Lewis was happy to accept the award!
  9. LiamC
    Oooh I’ll have to think and will come back to this later. Happy everyone’s included Mauer so far—while there are other excellent $5 options, I’d wager the drop from Mauer to Battey is more significant than most of the other drops from $5… And, of course, Santana is such a value play at only $3!
  10. LiamC
    Minor nit-pick—I don't think either Miranda or Wallner managed to reach double-digit hits on the day (although what a sight to behold if one did!) Thanks for the write-up!
  11. LiamC
    I really love Maeda... but with the rotation the Twins' strongest aspect and the bullpen struggling so, it just seems like it doesn't make sense to put him as a starter. If Varland had pitched horribly instead of fantastically today, then I could see it. All that said, if Maeda could come back up and swing into action as a set-up man? Boy would that solve some problems!
  12. LiamC
    I checked in on mlb.com expecting the game to have already ended and saw the Kirilloff at-bat there. Yikes.
  13. LiamC
    With enough verve and verbiage, you can verb just about any noun ;-)
  14. LiamC
    Also, what a trooper is Maeda! Finishing the play after that liner??? Yikes! Hope he heals quick!
  15. LiamC
    I love this! I haven't been able to tune in to many games live so far, but this sounds incredible! I really do like our broadcasting crew—and it's fun to see these sorta stats also be brought up and described well.
  16. LiamC
    First off, absolutely agreed with the original list. Killer, Carew, Kirby, Joe—I can't really think of any way to move any of them off it. That said, if we included the Senators... well, Walter Johnson would have to be on it at the very least. My early baseball history is hazy, but Goose is a familiar name. Then we have a difficult task though. Mauer has the least postseason success, but he's a Twins lifer, should be a surefire HoFer, and a Minnesota boy through and through. Kirby has the least WAR, but he was an excellent player and led us to a championship. Carew has the most WAR of any Twin as a Twin—Walter was a Senator—and was a damn good Twin (fun fact: Calvin Griffith's awfulness and trading away Carew led to my dad taking a hiatus from being a Twins fan). And Harmon... well, he hit 573 home runs (granted, 14 of them were for Kansas City).
  17. LiamC
    Hahahaha I'm doing my best not to crack up in a lecture. Excellent article. Loved the harvest season part, good advice from the new trainer.
  18. LiamC
    Hahahahaha wonderful article
  19. LiamC
    How about that fireman performance from Duran there?
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