Why Is Trevor Larnach Hitting So High in the Twins Lineup?

I follow the belief you want your best hitters at the top.  Considering each spot in the batting order is worth 9-10 more PA over a full season (leadoff gets 10 more PA than 2nd spot, 2nd gets 10 more than 3rd, etc...) The lineup should look something like:

Lewis
Buxton
Correa
Wallner
Miranda

Then (somewhat interchangeable)
Castro
Jeffers
Larnach
Santana

Those top 5 are head and shoulders above the rest so far.  They should always be in the top spots when playing.

Correa, when healthy, slides into the order behind the leadoff guy. Until that time, it looks like Larnach versus righties and Buxton versus lefties.

Call me old fashioned, but I tend to not care too much about EXPECTED stats or PROBABLE numbers. I care about actual numbers for what a guy has actually done. I get that some of our main guys have been hurt and on the IL. But when playing a very important game against someone like CLE, there is no reason to sit Royce Lewis on the bench and hit Margot leadoff! That is just bad management by Rocco. I also understand the need for occasional off days to keep guys healthy, but how many times have we seen Buxton AND Lewis sitting the same day? I won't even get into his bullpen management, putting Theilbar in to lose games. Does Rocco want to win, or has the mob paid him to purposely miss the playoffs?

I think it is a lot of #3, with sequencing and pinch-hitting strategy.  Setting up a lineup to try to trap bullpen arms into unfavorable platoon scenarios via pinch-hitting seems to be his primary in-game tactic.  It works wonderfully (sarcasm...  see Margot's pinch-hitting numbers).

The right handed corollary to this article would be "Why does Margot always lead off vs LHP?", when it seems Willi Castro is better suited to the role, and has a higher OPS than Margot against lefties (.766 vs .728).  Yet Castro usually finds himself in the bottom third of the lineup vs lefties.  Go figure...🤔

He is the new Kirloff for Baldelli...another Rocco's pet project.. Not sure how many times Twins hitters have all but obliterated the lefty/righty analytics that Baldelli lives by. Yet, he keeps at hit, even when it means putting a subpar hitter that high up in the order. I agree, Larnach is more consistent and "slightly" more reliable thatn previously, but he is still prone to hitting in to DP's and he's just not trustworthy enough.

The whole lefty/righty matchup things has gotten Baldelli and this team into more trouble than anything; the guy just doesn't seem to know how to manage athletes or manage from instinct or gut

. Mister Moneyball is not the kind of manager the Twins have ever had and it's tough to watch sometimes. He just needs to go away and lets bring Toby Gardenhire up for a promotion!

What this article tells me is the Twins need better production from the corner outfielders. Hopefully Wallner is one answer but the Twins likely need one or two outfielders next year who aren’t in their system. 

The Twins keep trying to get the optimal matchup for every bat.  While that sounds great in theory, it is not practical in reality.  You need to play your best players and if they are not good enough to win games either develop or trade for better players.  There is a time to make a move or moves in a game to optimize your chances for success but you can't do it for every AB.  And yes you can be strategic about giving players a day off here and there to maximize a particular matchup but you don't do it every day.

Larnach is having a better season  at the plate  , is it because he is seeing better pitches batting in front of Lewis  , Buxton  , wallner and Miranda  ,  could be the case  ...

Was a good laugh when I read that rocco's specialty is making the opposing manager sweat  , the only people that sweat are the fans , ( example ) Margot o'fer  pinch hitting  ...

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Now, I'm not one to make a big deal out of lineup construction.

lol. what's the headline of this article, again?

An even better question... 

Why does Margot lead off not-infrequently?!

So I’ve seen a few comments bemoaning using expected rather than actual results—the point there is that while actual are a better indicator of how a batter has performed (as, y’know, they happened), expected results are better predictors about how a player will perform.

Anyway, I think it’s a bit of a moot point here, because Larnach’s expected stats are still below Lewis/Wallner/Buxton’s, I believes. Maybe there’s something to the patience/pitches per plate appearance? I vaguely remember broadcasts talking about the benefit of batting behind guys who take a lot of pitches—although at that point why not just switch Santana and Larnach? 

21 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I don't think it's accurate to say Larnach "is" better than his results. He was better than his already great results for a short period of time, but it feels like he's pretty much been as expected since then. Over his past 20 games back to July 10th, .254/.362/.407 OPS .769 wRC+ 124 seems reasonable.

He's definitely improved his value by being more aggressive at the plate in terms of swinging at borderline stuff, and just trying to make contact rather than waiting for what he thinks is the perfect 4 seam fastball to crush.

That said, Larnach is being heavily platooned. Even if he played 162 games in a year with how he's been utilized this year, he would not qualify by having 3.1 PA/G.

And what about those haters? 

It does seem like Rocco has toned down the analytics a bit lately and isn't wholesale substituting guys in the 5th inning. Margot, while still Offers pinch hitting, has been much better of late. But Castro, a switch hitter with speed should be leading off, period. 

When a hitter, any hitter, is seeing the ball well - go with the hot bat. If he is 0-3 with 3 K's, then pinch hit. Otherwise let you starters play. 

I also still think that our gaping hole in LF should be solved by putting Lewis out there. He would be better in LF than anyone else we have been putting out there and we have 2 other adequate 3B.

One thing we are all not considering here.

Health.  Think of how many games where Buxton, Lewis and Correa have been available to play.  Putting together a lineup for 162 is much more involved than examining stat sheets to find your best lineup.  Just last night we saw Buxton pull himself from the game forcing Margot into action. (don't get me started on Buxton's fragility!).  I'm not a fan of Rocco's lineup construction but admire how the players have responded when called upon to step up.  To think the Twins offense ranks in the top ten of MLB given our optimal lineup has been out there for less than 30 games... stats don't tell that story.

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Down two runs in the ninth, the bottom part of the Twins' lineup managed to load the bases with no outs against Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase. Willi Castro struck out, and so up came Larnach, who grounded into a game-ending double play while Lewis stood in the on-deck circle.

Literally 2 inches further up the middle and the game is tied. Andres Gimenez gloved it when it was past him, and then his momentum allowed a double play. That's frickin baseball. The two decisive hits in the game were both accidents that 

The only thing in baseball a hitter can control is what pitches they swing at and how good a swing they put on them. Those combinations then create exit velos and launch angles. These aren't totally in the batter's control. Imperfections in the bat and ball can impact the contact, as well as atmospheric conditions. But It's generally close enough to say that a hitter who regularly makes good contact should be taking more at bats. Buxton and Larnach are tied at 31st overall in average exit velo. That means he consistently makes top contact in the league. He's been striking out less, ergo a pretty good number 2 hitter. 

23 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I join the others who could care less about "he is hitting better than the results show".  It is only results that win games.  No one posts FIP or WOBA to determine who wins a game!  Larnach is a nice player but in the bottom three in any batting order I would construct.

I also like the idea of good players playing against all pitchers and not the quick PH move that Rocco likes. 

Essentially what's being argued here is that even though Larnach can't control where the ball goes after he hits it, nor can he do anything about the skill of the defender he should not be judged on how good he is (and how much he's improved at) the actual skill he can put to bear. Instead we should judge him on the basically random outcome of contact events, and the defensive skill of a totally different player. 

2 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

I also still think that our gaping hole in LF should be solved by putting Lewis out there. He would be better in LF than anyone else we have been putting out there and we have 2 other adequate 3B.

He is a poor 3rd baseman, by what magic do you think he would be better in the outfile.d?

The first three in the order are guys you always want to get five at bats in a game. The next two, maybe. On most fronts they should be everyday players. So guys can feed off pitching reads day-to-day.

Larnach, for some reason, doesn't swing at the first pitch. He does work the count, though. But wonder if that could be better served in the 5th or 6th position consistently.

Having Correa back would solve this lineup dilemma.

On 8/13/2024 at 1:17 PM, RpR said:

He is a poor 3rd baseman, by what magic do you think he would be better in the outfile.d?

Because playing the outfield is orders of magnitude easier than the infield. The only limiter out there is athletic ability. Royce would have a cannon for a LF arm and likely some above average range. But that's not a mid season move. 

18 hours ago, August J Gloop said:

Because playing the outfield is orders of magnitude easier than the infield. The only limiter out there is athletic ability. Royce would have a cannon for a LF arm and likely some above average range. But that's not a mid season move. 

He does not have the range or arm for outfield and his fielding at third is lousy.