The Twins Should Trade Alex Kirilloff to the Angels

[Ted Schwerzler]

Alex Kirilloff is currently on the injured list with a back issue for the Minnesota Twins, but it’s hard to find a scenario where he fits into the future. Trading him for another player that could use a change of scenery makes sense. The Los Angeles Angels have just that player.

 

When Alex Kirilloff was demoted, it was because he failed to produce at an acceptable level for Rocco Baldelli’s lineup. Outside of a strong April, he had put together weeks of futility and owns just an 83 OPS+ on the year. Making matters worse, he came up with a back injury that was undisclosed when initially told of his option by Baldelli, and it certainly wasn’t well received by the organization.

He should be healthy prior to the deadline, and that would include playing games in a rehab assignment for Triple-A St. Paul. The Twins have Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Carlos Santana, and Jose Miranda to cover any spots where Kirilloff would play. Presumably he could be buried behind both Edouard Julien and Yunior Severino as well.

It would be unfortunate to deal Kirilloff at something near the bottom of his value, but it also may be a fool’s errand to think it peaks from here. He’s nearly 1,000 plate appearances into his major league career and has been exactly league average (100 OPS+). You need more from a first round pick, but the Los Angeles Angels may be interested in seeing if they can get it from him.

On the flip side, the Minnesota Twins could use additional pitching depth. The Angels have Reid Detmers at a similar position in his career, and sending him out makes some sense. Detmers was the 10th overall pick in 2017, a year behind Kirilloff. He is a year younger, and hits arbitration for the first time next year. Like Kirilloff, Detmers is under team control through the 2027 season.

Having thrown a no-hitter and posted a 3.77 ERA in 2022 as a rookie, it’s been a slow decline since. After a 4.48 ERA last year, Detmers has seen his ERA inflate to 6.14 this year. He owns a career-high 4.39 FIP, is walking a career-worst 3.9 batters per nine, and allowing home runs at a rate he has previously avoided. There’s a lot not to like with what is currently going on.

However, the Twins have become synonymous with grabbing pitchers and adding velocity to make them a bit more effective. As a lefty, he would bring a southpaw to the rotation, and he isn’t a soft-tosser. Sitting around 94 mph on his fastball, Detmers also leans heavily on his slider, which is a pitch Minnesota loves.

The Angels optioned Detmers to Triple-A at the beginning of June. Similarly to Kirilloff, they had seemingly grown tired with a level of mediocrity that was available on a per-start basis. Hoping that it would allow him to get right and provide a reset, Detmers has a pair of double-digit strikeout starts, but owns a 6.00 ERA in six games.

A deal in which the Twins are trying to take on revived value makes a good amount of sense if Kirilloff is involved. On his own, he likely has negative trade value or brings very little of substance back. By finding the right return, a swap with shared upside could provide the organization with a solid path forward.

Even if the Twins are fine moving on from the latest injury situation, it seems murky at best when considering where Kirilloff could play. These may be the final weeks for him in a Twins uniform, and it would bring an unceremonious end to a career expected to be much more prolific.

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[stringer bell]

Right this moment, there doesn't look like there's any room for Kirilloff with the Twins and the injuries may or may not have limited his upside to the point that he'll never be a game-changing player. I'd suggest caution however because three active members of the 2024 Twins were in the same position in the past year. José Miranda, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner all looked to be down and out  (and done) with the Twins. 

Kirilloff's chances might be limited and the club needs to have their best players playing down the stretch. I still believe he can be a far-above-average hitter, but there aren't any guarantees. The Twins likely will lose their first baseman and their right fielder next year, so there could be a roster spot and plenty of at-bats available. AK has an option remaining so the Twins can send him to St. Paul when he completes a rehab and he could start afresh in 2025. Getting someone like Detmers for him isn't much of return IMHO. If that's all he can generate, it is probably better to wait until 2025.

 

 

 

[Linus]

Kiriloff is getting to the number of plate appearances where you can see what you have   He’s an average hitter who is mediocre at first and poor in the outfield. I doubt any team will give up much to acquire him so the best plan may be to use the last option and see if he breaks out sometime between now and spring training next year. He’s another guy playing an offense first position but isn’t really doing much with the bat. 

[terrydactyls]

Please pass along to the front office that I approve this transaction and they may proceed with the finalization.

[Lefty61]

I suggest the first trade deadline deal should be an arm for their rotation for the 2nd half and Kiriloff could be a chip there.  Would Kiriloff or Wallner and an A level infield prospect like Miller or Harry be enough to acquire the Angels Anderson or Rockies Quantrill.   Probably need to sweeten with one more top 50 prospect.

[JD-TWINS]

As a contrast……Kirilloff, per reports, was struggling with a wrist problem in ‘21 & ‘22. If we believe reports over the last month, he had a back problem this year and didn’t share the info with the club. Real, I guess so?

Kirilloff in 2023, coming off major wrist surgery and healthy for first time in a few years:

281 AB’s - .270 BA - .348 OBP - .793 OPS - 117 OPS+ - 26 XBH……….not an “Average hitter”. An elite defender, but these numbers mirror Willi Castro’s offense as of today for ‘24 & he’s going to the All-star game.

With Santana gone and Kepler gone, as pointed out above, seems to kick the door wide open for Kirilloff to get one more shot as a healthy guy in ‘25. His lack of sharpness on defense is offset a bit by his flexibility to play either corner or 1B - right? 

He was everybody’s hero after 3-4 weeks in April with 3 triples already. When did back become an issue???? Maybe gotta take a deep breath and give him one more shot.

[JD-TWINS]

I surely hope Larnach stays no lower than where he is now and starts to climb again at the plate! ………I have no idea what Matt Wallner may do moving forward……..he may hit 6 HR’s or he might be hitting .195 by August 10th - maybe both? Anyway, one of these 2 guys could fold up just as Kirilloff did in May/June. For depth sake, I don’t see a big enough upside in moving Kirilloff at his current value. If they package him with another guy or two in the offseason, fine, assuming some decent return.

[MinnInPa]

i just dont think we can rely on Wallner being any more than he is right now.. I still dont see him as a difference maker in the long run..certainly no where near production of Kepler. I still think Kiersey has more upside

[Parfigliano]

Interesting but Im not so sure the LAAs would be interested in trading a healthy 94mph lefty with remaining team control for a habitually injured AK.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I like this trade idea a lot.  In two years, either of them could straighten things out and be an ascending star.  However, it is equally likely that they could never straighten things out and be out of baseball.  Kiriloff’s issues seem to be a little more physically oriented, while Detmers looks to need more of an overhaul to the approach.  Do it.

With Kepler and Santana gone next year, more time at 1st base and the outfield opens up but I think that it’s more likely that Julien/Miranda takes over at 1st and Wallner/Larnach/Martin/Castro takes over in the outfield.  Unless everything changes and he rediscovers how to hit, AK doesn’t really have a place to play. 

[Bodie]

13 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Interesting but Im not so sure the LAAs would be interested in trading a healthy 94mph lefty with remaining team control for a habitually injured AK.

The Angels aren't the best run team, but they aren't braindead.  Not completely anyway...

[Trov]

The only reason the Twins make this trade is if they think they can tinker with Detmers to get him to where they want.  I am for it, but if Detmers is out of options after this year you better plan to do it at MLB level or hope no one takes him off waivers next year. 

[TopGunn#22]

I would do it.  There comes a time when you just can't wait any longer.  Kirilloff fits this profile.  The Angels have guys like Detmers and Adell that do as well.  I'd take a chance on a young lefty SP.  

[jimbo92107]

At this point, Alex Kirilloff definitely could use a fresh start. His time in Minnesota has been very frustrating. Maybe the trainers in LA can do a better job of keeping him healthy. Sigh, I thought he was going to be that golden kazoo - a high-average power hitter. Sadly, one injury after another stifled his career here. 

As for Reid Detmers, if not for his 94 mph heater, I'd be more worried that his ragged command was a symptom of a physical problem. This team has brought in so many pitchers that went straight from the 40-man to the 60-day IL... and then they reveal their elbow is falling off.

If the Twins do a deal like this, I really hope they double down on the physical exam. 

[Doctor Gast]

IMO it's a lousy idea. In trading the secret is to sell high & buy low but many tend to sell low giving up too early & buying high going on the hype & later losing your shirt. Right now Kiriloff's stock is super low. The problem with Kiriloff is health not mechanics, once his health returns he'll mash like he did this spring (that's the truer picture of Kiriloff). Both Miranda and Kiriloff had shoulder surgery last year. Kiriloff who had also had wrist surgeries prior which made him more vulnerable, had a soft-tissue injury concerning the back which is common after a long recovery after a surgery. Because of Kiriloff's competitiveness & fear of losing his spot on the roster, he tried to play through it, compounding the problem. From the time Kiriloff was slumping I said he's hurting. Miranda is also now suffering from a soft-tissue injury concerning the back. 

Our solution isn't trading Kiriloff, our solution has always been getting rid of Santana. Santana has blocked Miranda & especially Kiriloff from recovering properly by limiting their exposure to more physically demanding positions. Miranda & Kiriloff individually can out-produce Santana at 1B but together there's no comparison. Get Kiriloff back to his game & bring up his trade value to where it should be then you can think about trading Kiriloff.

[olerud]

Nice idea,  I doubt it will happen tho. I wouldn't mind if it did!

[bean5302]

Kirilloff has no trade value. He'll be arb 2 this offseason, and he hasn't produced a single WAR in his career. In fact, nearing 1,000 PA, Kirilloff's career fWAR = 0.1. If he didn't have options, he'd be a DFA candidate.

Detmers hasn't even hit arbitration eligibility and has options left next year. He's got a career FIP of 4.18, and it's 4.38 this year. No way the Angels are trading basically a Bailey Ober for an non-tender candidate.

Detmers put up 2.2 fWAR in 2022 last year. 2.5 fWAR last year. The only issue Detmers has is giving up gopher balls hanging a few pitches. Seems like a little mental issue he's working through as his BB and K rates are good, and his average EV is solid. SIERA is 4.00 this year.

[mikelink45]

I am not into trade speculations, but the idea that a player like Kiriloff could do better elsewhere is sound.  He has really let a lot of others move ahead of him and the projected value that he once had is no longer getting fans excited.  It is too bad, but he just could not be on the field enough with all his injuries and the last ABs just did not look good. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Interesting but Im not so sure the LAAs would be interested in trading a healthy 94mph lefty with remaining team control for a habitually injured AK.

Agreed. Love the idea Ted, and applaud your creativity but the Angels aren't trading Detmer for Kirlloff.  Detmer is far more valuable as a hard throwing controllable LH starter with at least some early success to go with this year's step back. . We would have to add a quality prospect like Maatthews, Corey Lewis or Culppeper to make the deal happen. Would love to see the trade made because controllable starting pitching is so valuable and we would would be trading from a position of surplus (LH OF/1B), but just don't see it.  

[LambchoP]

I don't like this. If we trade for a pitcher it needs to be an impact pitcher that we can use in the playoffs. We've got plenty of number 4-5 type starters, what we need are top of the rotation guys. As for Kiriloff, trading him now will net us basically nothing. Plus, if he really has been hurt all year, maybe he can finally put it all together next year. Miranda did it right? Plus, both Santana and Kepler will be gone next year. Pretty sure first base will be covered by Miranda or Lewis, but there may be at bats in the outfield. I say give him one more year, after that time to move on.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, MinnInPa said:

i just dont think we can rely on Wallner being any more than he is right now.. I still dont see him as a difference maker in the long run..certainly no where near production of Kepler. I still think Kiersey has more upside

He was a difference maker last year, and has been this year, even with the awful start. 

[NYCTK]

11 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

We've got plenty of number 4-5 type starters

The sad fact is, no we don't actually. If SWR or Paddack run out of gas, we're left without a real good option to step into the rotation. Another go for Festa or Varland, which isn't going to kill the team but is a real risk for the rest of the season. And we just DFA'd the 3rd(?) man in that pecking order. 

Unless you're talking about future seasons, which I can see, but hoping the depth at AA materializes into a #4 by next season is a bit of a high wish too. 

[Otaknam]

Kiriloff for Detmers. I would do that, a no brainer. I have been a big kiriloff fan, but his injury history and lack of production has left him behind. A change of scenery should help him. Detmers would give them a lefty option and some starting depth. Maybe they can help him get back on track. Worth a try if they can convince the Angels to do it.

[NYCTK]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

He was a difference maker last year, and has been this year, even with the awful start. 

They instantly identified he needed some work and sent him down so early that his putrid start has already been made up for, sitting with a 132 OPS+ at the all-star break. Good for him! Hope he can keep his mindset right and continue to produce, especially since Larnach seems to have come back to earth and isn't really pulling his weight anymore. 

[LambchoP]

5 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

The sad fact is, no we don't actually. If SWR or Paddack run out of gas, we're left without a real good option to step into the rotation. Another go for Festa or Varland, which isn't going to kill the team but is a real risk for the rest of the season. And we just DFA'd the 3rd(?) man in that pecking order. 

Unless you're talking about future seasons, which I can see, but hoping the depth at AA materializes into a #4 by next season is a bit of a high wish too. 

Yea I mostly mean depth for future seasons with Zebby, Morris, Festa. This year we are one or two injuries from disaster, but I don't think it's worth trading top prospects for average to below average starters just to guard against injury. If we really want to win any playoff series this year I think we need one more quality starter and a high leverage lefty. We could then move Paddack to the pen, which in theory strengthen both the rotation and bullpen 

[Original_JB]

Has Detmers had the requisite Tommy John surgery needed to join this team?  Kinda sorta joking here, but I can just see the Twins make the trade, do their tinkering to add a few MPH and suddenly, the balky elbow appears..... eventually, you end up with a supposedly "fixed" pitcher, but with no controllable time left to see what you've got. Yeah, I know, you could talk yourself out of any trade this way, but the historical precedent is there....

[Fatbat]

Its a great moment in time trade.  Injuries just plain suck the mojo out of talented player and the team they are on.  Both players would probably flourish with a new start.  AK, if he finally kicks the injury bug could end up as a 125ops+ guy for his prime years thru age 34.  It will most likely not be in a Twins uniform.

Detmers could be an ace yet. Do this trade! 

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Its a great moment in time trade.  Injuries just plain suck the mojo out of talented player and the team they are on.  Both players would probably flourish with a new start.  AK, if he finally kicks the injury bug could end up as a 125ops+ guy for his prime years thru age 34.  It will most likely not be in a Twins uniform.

Detmers could be an ace yet. Do this trade! 

I'd do this fast, so it must not be fair

[Fatbat]

44 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd do this fast, so it must not be fair

Its because AK has been a disappointment.  Would you substitute Miranda for AK and do the trade? 3/24….everyone would have traded Miranda. 

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, NYCTK said:

The sad fact is, no we don't actually. If SWR or Paddack run out of gas, we're left without a real good option to step into the rotation. Another go for Festa or Varland, which isn't going to kill the team but is a real risk for the rest of the season. And we just DFA'd the 3rd(?) man in that pecking order. 

Unless you're talking about future seasons, which I can see, but hoping the depth at AA materializes into a #4 by next season is a bit of a high wish too. 

Am curious, I can’t determine when Headrick made his starts in St. Paul this year…..I see he’s started 2 games and is not on IL. His ERA is 2.08 and he has 15K’s in 8 2/3 work. Not sure if that’s recent or 2 months old? Seems encouraging - need to see more volume but encouraging.

Any timing on these outings?