The Twins Should Trade Alex Kirilloff to the Angels

[TopGunn#22]

I think Doc Gast made a great point of trying not to sell low.  But that's not always in the cards you're dealt.  Sometimes you have to factor in the number of guys that have passed a prospect by in your system.  I'm sure the Cubs thought they were getting a heck of a pitcher in Ernie Broglio back in 1964 and for whatever reason, felt they didn't need Lou Brock anymore.  

These types of discussions always ramp up around draft time/trade deadline time.  A team adds new talent and some players just don't perform due to injury or lack of talent.  There is no doubt that Kirilloff has the talent.  He hasn't been able to stay healthy.  But corner outfield spots are going to get pretty crowded even with the probable departure of Max Kepler this off season.  1B can be filled by Miranda and Julien going forward.  If I can get a young, hard throwing LHP (whose stock is also "distressed" at this time) I would make that trade KNOWING that I have Miranda, Julien, Castro, Larnach, Wallner, E-Rod, and maybe even Kiersey waiting in the wings.  

Detmers is an excellent suggestion for this type of possible trade.  Someone like Joe Adell would NOT be someone I'd be interested in.  I wonder what other suggestions Ted or anyone else would have?

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Am curious, I can’t determine when Headrick made his starts in St. Paul this year…..I see he’s started 2 games and is not on IL. His ERA is 2.08 and he has 15K’s in 8 2/3 work. Not sure if that’s recent or 2 months old? Seems encouraging - need to see more volume but encouraging.

Any timing on these outings?

On 4/23 Headrick was transferred to the 60 day il and is still on that list

[SotaSports in NM]

5 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I am frustrated that AK did not report his back issue immediately and tried to play through it similar to what Joe Ryan did last season. 

I am, too! Something surprising to me in these examples is that there surely were signs that something was different while these guys were slumping (swing/pitching profile, respectively).

Didn't any of the coaches ask "hey, are you feeling alright?"? Would that be a no no to ask a player when they're not performing well? I just don't get how an impactful injury can be "hidden" from guys you're around all the time, ya know?

[Fatbat]

Just for the record, AK was getting treatment from the team medical staff 2 weeks+ before the il stint. Its disingenuous to say he hid his injury. 

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, Fatbat said:

On 4/23 Headrick was transferred to the 60 day il and is still on that list

Appreciate the note/information. The reason I asked was because I was looking at the 40-man roster and it shows he’s “in the Minors” and not on the IL any longer……….if he went on  IL 4/23, does he have to come off automatically on 6/23?

[old nurse]

12 hours ago, MinnInPa said:

i just dont think we can rely on Wallner being any more than he is right now.. I still dont see him as a difference maker in the long run..certainly no where near production of Kepler. I still think Kiersey has more upside

2024	26	MIN	AL	20	59	47	4	10	3	0	3	8	0	0	5	27	.213	.356	.468	.824	132	22	0	6	0	1	0	7/9HD

If every hitter hit like that the Twins woul be on top of the division. Look at the numbers 

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Just for the record, AK was getting treatment from the team medical staff 2 weeks+ before the il stint. Its disingenuous to say he hid his injury. 

But it was on the internet that he hid his injury and repeated. It just has to be true. In all seriousness one would think the training staff would have to write reports. They were probably hoping to send him down so they did not have to pay mlb wages for yet another trip to the injured list. 

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Appreciate the note/information. The reason I asked was because I was looking at the 40-man roster and it shows he’s “in the Minors” and not on the IL any longer……….if he went on  IL 4/23, does he have to come off automatically on 6/23?

I believe that because he wasn’t on the 26 man when injured, there is more time available and he might be in a rehab assignment in Florida which also lengthens his il stint

[Fatbat]

19 minutes ago, old nurse said:

But it was on the internet that he hid his injury and repeated. It just has to be true. In all seriousness one would think the training staff would have to write reports. They were probably hoping to send him down so they did not have to pay mlb wages for yet another trip to the injured list. 

I think they got caught doing exactly that either by MLB or by his agent.  Someone probably asked the question if he had been treated recently by the  teams medical staff and poof. Option rescinded….. and then the gobbly goop of an excuse. 

[USAFChief]

4 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Just for the record, AK was getting treatment from the team medical staff 2 weeks+ before the il stint. Its disingenuous to say he hid his injury. 

Source?

[Fatbat]

2 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Source?

Gleeman and the Geek? The Twins FO. It was even discussed on this site in a posting about the option being rescinded. 

[JD-TWINS]

28 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

I believe that because he wasn’t on the 26 man when injured, there is more time available and he might be in a rehab assignment in Florida which also lengthens his il stint

I’m not trying to make this an issue with you - I get your slant - the MLB Twins 40-man doesn’t have him on IL ……he’s “in the minors” so my assumption is he has to take up space on 40-man and can’t remain on IL anymore?

[JD-TWINS]

Kirilloff 2023:

281 AB’s - .270 BA - 26 XBH - .348 OBP - 117 OPS+ - .793 OPS - 41 RBI
 

Castro 2024: ….(at the Break)

339 AB’s - .265 BA - 34 XBH - .352 OBP - 119 OPS+ - .774 OPS - 30 RBI ………ALL-STAR

Should we trade Kirilloff knowing he was hurt and knowing Kepler & Santana are gone?

[Rosterman]

I'm not seeing a good future on the Twins roster for Kirilloff, unless the Twins want to hope he does a bounce (along with Julien) similar to Miranda. But if you could trade him for a parallel project experiencing trouble, could be worth it.

 

I would also consider packaging him and go after a lefty (or two) that the A's are rostering. A's always looking for players low-cost with potential that can develop into further trade chips, too.

[old nurse]

9 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Source?

ESPN’s report on this stated he had an MRI done  in late May on his back. It is an indication that that the back has been bothering him for a while,

[Doctor Wu]

20 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Kirilloff has no trade value.

I wouldn't go as far to say that he has no trade value, but I agree that whatever trade value that he has right now is very low due to his injury history. As others have said, it it will soon be difficult to find a spot for him to play, or even just act as DH, as soon as guys like Lewis and Miranda are back from the DL, and I doubt they will be sending down Brooks Lee anytime soon. So maybe Kiriloff does need to fine a new home in the near future, but I'd rather the Twins wait until he's healthy and hitting well again. At that point we might be able to get someone like Detmers or even a better player in a trade.

[MinnInPa]

21 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

He was a difference maker last year, and has been this year, even with the awful start. 

Wallner ?   really ??? he's K'd 27 times in 47 AB and is hitting .213.. ..he'd have to do a complete turnaround to ever change my opinion

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, MinnInPa said:

Wallner ?   really ??? he's K'd 27 times in 47 AB and is hitting .213.. ..he'd have to do a complete turnaround to ever change my opinion

The guy with a career 132 OPS+. 

Fact is he has had a complete turnaround from the start of the season but you've been too busy to notice. 

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

ESPN’s report on this stated he had an MRI done  in late May on his back. It is an indication that that the back has been bothering him for a while,

Nm

 

[USAFChief]

12 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Gleeman and the Geek? The Twins FO. It was even discussed on this site in a posting about the option being rescinded. 

Nm

 

 

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

I wouldn't go as far to say that he has no trade value, but I agree that whatever trade value that he has right now is very low due to his injury history. As others have said, it it will soon be difficult to find a spot for him to play, or even just act as DH, as soon as guys like Lewis and Miranda are back from the DL, and I doubt they will be sending down Brooks Lee anytime soon. So maybe Kiriloff does need to fine a new home in the near future, but I'd rather the Twins wait until he's healthy and hitting well again. At that point we might be able to get someone like Detmers or even a better player in a trade.

Alex Kirilloff has negative trade value. Can we compromise at no trade value. Below league average bat DH who is constantly hurt. A career 0.1 WAR in 900 plate appearances making $1.4MM.

[MinnInPa]

2 hours ago, NYCTK said:

The guy with a career 132 OPS+. 

Fact is he has had a complete turnaround from the start of the season but you've been too busy to notice. 

Aaron Judge only has a 1.103 are you sure??? All i care about is Avg, RBI and K ratio, OBP ..i dont even look/consider all those analytic stats

[NYCTK]

15 minutes ago, MinnInPa said:

Aaron Judge only has a 1.103 are you sure??? All i care about is Avg, RBI and K ratio, OBP ..i dont even look/consider all those analytic stats

No one's saying he's Aaron Judge. But he's not a complete bum either. I don't trust him much going forward because even though he's hot that K rate is still north of 35%, but if you think BA is super important while OBP or OPS is meaningless, we're just never going to agree so we can leave it here. 

[NYCTK]

19 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Alex Kirilloff has negative trade value. Can we compromise at no trade value. Below league average bat DH who is constantly hurt. A career 0.1 WAR in 900 plate appearances making $1.4MM.

Yeah, a bat only player with a career OPS+ of 100 at the age of 26 isn't exactly going to get much attention. He's a waiver wire reclamation project. Not an asset. 

[bean5302]

22 minutes ago, MinnInPa said:

Aaron Judge only has a 1.103 are you sure??? All i care about is Avg, RBI and K ratio, OBP ..i dont even look/consider all those analytic stats

Wallner has produced the following since his return.
.364 AVG functional, at least
.462 OBP seems pretty okay
.727 SLG adequate
1.189 OPS I mean, I'll take it even if I'd like to see a lot more.
He'd be on pace for 93 RBI in a 162 game season.

Also, why do you care about K ratio? That's a pretty modern stat.

[NYCTK]

15 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Wallner has produced the following since his return.
.364 AVG functional, at least
.462 OBP seems pretty okay
.727 SLG adequate
1.189 OPS I mean, I'll take it even if I'd like to see a lot more.
He'd be on pace for 93 RBI in a 162 game season.

Also, why do you care about K ratio? That's a pretty modern stat.

Because it's his big weakness, and him being successful versus fluky is going to largely be tied into that K rate. 

He's been great in this 26 PA stretch, but that's with a .600 BABIP. If he were putting more balls in play this type of production wouldn't appear to be quite as unsustainable as it does right now. Over 400 PAs, the difference between a 40% K rate and a 32% K rate is 32 balls in play. And for Wallner that means something like 2 more dingers, 2 more walks, and another 10 or so hits scattered about. 

[East Coast Twin]

Quote

He should be healthy by the deadline, and that would include playing games in a rehab assignment for Triple-A St. Paul.

I'm not sure we should assume this.  The trade deadline is fourteen days away.  I haven't read anywhere that he has even started baseball activities yet.

[bean5302]

35 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Because it's his big weakness, and him being successful versus fluky is going to largely be tied into that K rate. 

He's been great in this 26 PA stretch, but that's with a .600 BABIP. If he were putting more balls in play this type of production wouldn't appear to be quite as unsustainable as it does right now. Over 400 PAs, the difference between a 40% K rate and a 32% K rate is 32 balls in play. And for Wallner that means something like 2 more dingers, 2 more walks, and another 10 or so hits scattered about. 

I've noticed there is a lot Wallner hate on Twins Daily. Not sure if it's just a popularity thing or what? His K rate last year was right in line with other players like Julien, Larnach, Buxton, Taylor, and Jeffers. I expect Wallner to continue to have a steady K rate in the low 30s, though it may improve a bit over time.

[Riverbrian]

It was announced that Kirilloff was being sent down to AAA, then what? six days later? it was announced that he isn't going to St. Paul but to the injured list instead. 

Not communicating an injury can't be a good thing. 

For the time being at least... He does preserve that final option which is a good thing but in the meantime. Players are rising past him on the depth chart and that can't be a good thing. 

 

[NYCTK]

23 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I've noticed there is a lot Wallner hate on Twins Daily. Not sure if it's just a popularity thing or what? His K rate last year was right in line with other players like Julien, Larnach, Buxton, Taylor, and Jeffers. I expect Wallner to continue to have a steady K rate in the low 30s, though it may improve a bit over time.

I've noticed the same. But I'm actually a big supporter. I want to see him do well. He was obviously not right at the start of the season, striking out in half his plate appearances. 

It's also important to recognize his limitations though. I want to see him continue to be a 130-140 OPS+ guy, but even when he does his defense and position restricts him to being a 3 Win player basically. Whereas Julien could have (and potentially still could be) more like a 5 win player building on last year's production.