5 Questions the Minnesota Twins Must Answer Before the 2024 MLB Trade Deadline

[Cody Christie]

The 2024 MLB Trade Deadline is at the end of July, which means teams are self-evaluating to decide the proper next steps. Here are five questions the Twins must answer over the next month.

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

MLB’s trade deadline has taken on a different vibe in recent years, with more playoff spots in both leagues resulting in more teams being in contention. According to FanGraphs’ updated playoff odds, fourteen teams have over a 30% chance of making the playoffs, with 11 teams having better odds than 50%. One way to increase those odds is to fill holes at the trade deadline, and the Twins will have that opportunity in the coming weeks. Let’s look at the questions facing the front office as they decide on an appropriate trade deadline approach. 

Are the Twins buyers or sellers?
Minnesota entered play this weekend with over a 60% chance to make the playoffs and a 22.2% chance of winning the AL Central. Projection models clearly view the team as a playoff contender even with the team’s up-and-down first half of the season. In baseball, the key is to make the playoffs because that is when anything can happen, as fans remember with the 1987 and 1991 World Series teams. 

Playoff baseball can be very inconsistent, with the best regular season team rarely winning the World Series. The Texas Rangers stumbled into the playoffs last season and got hot enough to win the title. The Los Angeles Dodgers won 111 games in 2022 and failed to make it out of the divisional round. Atlanta had the fifth-best record in the NL during the 2021 season and bunched together wins when it mattered the most. The Twins have flaws; the trade deadline allows the team to be buyers and fill those holes. 

Does the team need to add a playoff-caliber starter?
Joe Ryan and Simeon Woods Richardson have been the team’s top-performing starters this season, but it is yet to be seen if the team will trust them in October. Ryan performed well in the first half last season before a groin injury significantly impacted his performance. The Twins didn’t trust him to start a playoff game until it was completely necessary, and even then, he was only allowed to go through the lineup once. Wood Richardson has shown plenty of positive signs this season and is on an upward trend, but relying on a 23-year-old rookie in October can make a team pause. 

Pablo López needs to return to his previous form to be ready for the playoffs, and his peripheral numbers point to him being better than he has been in 2024. López fits into a group of starters that the front office has traded for in recent years while preferring that the players have multiple years of team control. Front-line pitching comes at a high cost, so the front office must balance the current and future value of all players involved in a deal. 

Where does the lineup need to be upgraded?
The Twins have three positions that have seen below-average production this season, including second base, designated hitter, and first base. Edouard Julien, the team’s primary second baseman, posted a 95 OPS+ before being demoted to Triple-A earlier this month. Minnesota has turned the position over to Willi Castro, with top prospects Brooks Lee and Austin Martin as options for the second half. Royce Lewis recently returned from the injured list, and his addition has helped multiple spots in the lineup. He pushes Jose Miranda to first base and/or DH, while Lewis will need time at DH, too. 

Minnesota can target some of the best available bats to slide into first base, designated hitter, or a corner outfield spot. Pete Alonso is a name that will garner plenty of interest at the trade deadline since he is a pending free agent. The Twins and Mets might have a unique way to match up on a trade agreement. Some other potential bats that could be available include Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Christian Walker, Josh Bell, and J.D. Martinez. The Twins aren’t going to overspend on a rental player, but their need should be easy to fill with the available options. 

What needs are there in the bullpen?
Minnesota used a unique strategy last season when preparing the bullpen for October. Instead of overspending on expensive trade deadline relievers, the team focused on internal options to join the bullpen. Louie Varland shifted from starter to reliever, and Chris Paddack joined the bullpen after returning from Tommy John's surgery. It was a strategy that worked well in a small sample size at the end of the year. Teams need multiple high-leverage relief options in October, and the Twins could always use an upgrade. 

Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax are locked into late-inning roles, and the team hopes Brock Stewart can join them in the second half. Varland is an option to switch back to a bullpen role, where he looked dominant last season. Caleb Thielbar has been a mess, but nothing is stopping him from making adjustments in the weeks ahead. Over the next month, the team can decide their level of trust in Steven Okert, Jorge Alcalá, and Cole Sands. There are questions with the team’s bullpen, but adding to this group shouldn’t be a priority at the trade deadline. 

What prospects can the team trade?
The Twins’ front office must surrender prospect capital to acquire top trade targets, and there are clear prospect tiers for the organization. Players like Walker Jenkins and Brooks Lee are considered untouchable in potential deals. Other names like Emmanuel Rodríguez and David Festa are likely only available in blockbuster deals. Some prospects have seen their stock rise this season, which is the type of player other organizations target. If the team follows the trend from recent trades, Luke Keaschall, Brandon Winokur, and Zebby Matthews might have their names connected to trade rumors. 

During the 2023 season, the Twins decided to stand pat and not make any moves before the trade deadline. There were places on the roster that could have been upgraded, and the front office made calls on deals, but nothing came to fruition. It seems likely that the team will follow a similar plan of attack this season. If a deal develops, the club will pursue it, but it doesn’t seem likely that the front office will go all in on the 2024 campaign. 

How will the Twins’ front office answer these questions? Are there any other questions to add to the list? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[Fire Dan Gladden]

None of these questions matter until you answer the only one that means anything:

Is this ownership group willing to bring on any additional salary?

Since we know the answer is no, this article (along with all of the other team-trade matchup articles) is an exercise in futility.

[BH67]

Yes, the Twins will make the playoffs. They're 40-18 against teams other than the Guardians, Yankees and Orioles. Their bullpen is deep and dependable. Several hitters are well above their career OPS this season, and the team is striking out considerably less at the plate than they did last year.

From my vantage point, what hangs over the the 2024 Twins is the size of their 2025 payroll. Absent a sure and copious flow of media revenue, all the hopes and ambitions for this year will be constrained. If so, a core of players now at Wichita and St Paul are being prepared for starting roles beginning next year, and no additional large contracts will be pursued either now or during the offseason.

And frankly, until the Twins can measure up to the Yankees or Orioles on the field, a three-month solution to challenge in 2024 seems imprudent.

[mikelink45]

These questions are not very compelling.  My questions are - will they bring Wallner back? Can Julien regain his position? Is Kiriloff in need of a really long reset?  If Paddock tires does Varland or Festa take his place?  Will Varland go to the pen, is Jackson really someone we count on?

[strumdatjag]

Josh Staumont has looked good enough to include in the bullpen discussion here.  

[Shaitan]

Seems like Josh Bell is on the block every year.

[kroll]

Never happen.

Great to talk about though.

They  (Twins) will make a VERY mediocre trade or two  at best.

I do enjoy reading all the contributors and appreciate the work they put in.

But its 99% poppycock!

[gmwannabe]

I know Pablo is getting a big raise in 2025 but I count 28 million coming off the books next year if you add up Kepler, Farmer, Thielbar, Santana, & Margot. That said, it seems like the Twins can add for this year and set themselves up for 2025 by acquiring Lane Thomas to replace Kepler For next year and giving the Twins the right handed bat they need now and getting  Mackenzie Gore from the Nats who has a few more years of control at a reasonable cost. A package of Lee or Julien, Kirilloff, and 2 top 10 prospects not named Jenkins or Rodriguez should get it done.

[Joe A. Preusser]

41 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

None of these questions matter until you answer the only one that means anything:

Is this ownership group willing to bring on any additional salary?

Since we know the answer is no, this article (along with all of the other team-trade matchup articles) is an exercise in futility.

We don't know any such thing.  Nothing happens until it happens.  

We never EVER going to sign Correa, until we did.  Twice.

[Doctor Gast]

From the beginning, I advocated that Julien, Miranda & Kiriloff will drastically raise our 1B stock. Lee & Martin will drastically raise our 2B stock & Castro, Keirsey, along with Wallner will raise our LF stock. Along with voiding out Farmer, Margot & Santana's playing time will raise our stock in all these positions plus it won't cost us anything in added salary or prospects except the money we already wasted.

If we want to challenge any top team we need postseason caliber SP. I definitely would trade Gonzales as the primary trade piece. 

[SaberNerd]

For the people talking about how they won't add salary, that won't be an issue.  It is common for the team trading the player away to eat all of the outgoing salary in exchange for better prospects.  Mets would 100% pay for all of Alonso's contract if we gave enough.

 

I'm not sure that we are good enough to merit making a big trade though.  We aren't going to be the best team, so really just hoping we get hot in October.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, gmwannabe said:

I know Pablo is getting a big raise in 2025 but I count 28 million coming off the books next year if you add up Kepler, Farmer, Thielbar, Santana, & Margot. That said, it seems like the Twins can add for this year and set themselves up for 2025 by acquiring Lane Thomas to replace Kepler For next year and giving the Twins the right handed bat they need now and getting  Mackenzie Gore from the Nats who has a few more years of control at a reasonable cost. A package of Lee or Julien, Kirilloff, and 2 top 10 prospects not named Jenkins or Rodriguez should get it done.

Why trade Lee?

[Jocko87]

Topa. Just like making a trade. Er, again.

The help is coming from inside the house, most likely.

Most likely trade action would be clearing veterans to make room for the Wallner, Julien and Lee's.

Was wondering if the Dodgers would be interested Farmer at short for a couple months. They don't have great infield depth as evidenced by Mookie playing short in the first place and Farmer would be a nice fit in the interim. Not sure what Gavin Lux did that has him apparently off short forever but Farmer is likely better than the call up they are using.

[High heat]

1 hour ago, gmwannabe said:

I know Pablo is getting a big raise in 2025 but I count 28 million coming off the books next year if you add up Kepler, Farmer, Thielbar, Santana, & Margot. That said, it seems like the Twins can add for this year and set themselves up for 2025 by acquiring Lane Thomas to replace Kepler For next year and giving the Twins the right handed bat they need now and getting  Mackenzie Gore from the Nats who has a few more years of control at a reasonable cost. A package of Lee or Julien, Kirilloff, and 2 top 10 prospects not named Jenkins or Rodriguez should get it done.

Mackenzie Gore would be a great target and get.  I would be ok giving up Lee for a starter with yrs of control left like Gore.  

[GNess]

Of course the current FO can make trades and spend as it has on occasion in the past. The trade deadline offers an opportunity for all teams to improve themselves for the short, medium and long term depending on their perspective.

Yes, the Twins have a core that can do damage in the postseason - people writing off the Twins as an also ran come playoffs are undervaluing the team. No, not a favorite, but a team clearly capable of going on a run. Why not try to add an asset or two at a reasonable cost to enhance the possibility?

 A team just shouldn't stand pat year after year fearful of "losing" on deals and becoming solely focused on advancing via players in their own system - almost nø team wins big that way.

[thelanges5]

Let someone else overpay for the Alonso rental. 

[Guest]

1.  Is there a budget to be a buyer?  No.

2.  Need another starter?  No.

3.  Upgrade lineup?  See #1.

4.  Add to bullpen?  Wut?  They just DFA'd Castillo.  I don't think so.

5.  Trade prospects?  Brent Rooker would look pretty good in LF about now.

[1985Fan]

For where the Twins are right now, I think they should stand pat. They’re not in the upper class of the AL compared to NYY, Orioles, or even the Guardians, if they need to replace an injury or non performing player, they’ve got reinforcements at AAA. Julien, Wallner, Lee, Severino, Festa, Varland, Camargo, and others should be able to step up and contribute. If Kiriloff gets back on track and Kiersey comes back healthy and productive, they have plenty of internal depth. 

 

[tony&rodney]

Perhaps the questions will be largely answered by how individual players respond. Kirilloff, Santana, and Miranda can figure out first base. Eventually either Julien or Lee will be the second baseman. Larnach, Castro, and Margot are taking care of LF. Buxton could still get better and keep going in CF and Max is fine in RF. The players will need to earn their playing time and make the Twins management make the tough decisions.

The bullpen should be pretty good. Duran, Jax, Stewart, Alcala, Staumont, Varland, Paddack, Okert, and Funderburk are good and can cover for Thielbar and Sands if necessary.

Maybe the Twins swing something for Jesus Luzardo while keeping Jenkins, EmRod, and Festa.

The Twins could use a player like Bobby Witt Jr. but those guys are just not available, which means the players within the organization need to step forward and put their skills on display.

[Major League Ready]

The Nationals are a 500 team with a lot of young talent and more coming, including James Wood who is a potential superstar.  They are not trading Gore who only has 2 years service time.  He will be a piece they build around,  They will trade expiring contracts or perhaps a player that will become a free agent after next year.  

Would anyone trade a top tier SP that is not a free agent at the end of this year for a package headlined by Gonzalez?  I highly doubt it.  The package for Cease was a haul.  Chicago got a 55 FV prospect and two 50 FV prospects.  The 4th player was Steven Wilson who was not a top prospect but is pitching at the ML level.  So, something like Rodriguez, Festa, Raya, and Morris.  What is the point of trading for a player that is not the caliber of Cease or better?  A playoff caliber SP is going to cost a lot more than Gonzalez.  

[kenneth frank]

I think the only question is how much is the front office willing to pay in order to bring in a front line starter with a year or 2 of contract control. We know ownership won't chip in, that means giving up some very good prospects.

[LambchoP]

I think the Twins should at least try to get anything they can for Farmer, Margot, Vasquez and Theilbar. Look for a starter with control and maybe a reliever with another year or two. I'd also say Kiriloff should be available. He's redundant with Wallner and Larnach, both of whom are better hitters this year.

[Whitey333]

Interesting.  The Twins are kind of in flux.  They beat up and pad individual and team stats against some very bad baseball teams yet are lije 12 games below .500 against teams with winning records.  Yes I agree the young prospects need to step up and show what they can do.  But that is hard when Rocco usually only plays them half the time.  Are these prospects as good as all the hype?  Or is it mostly JUST hype?  Its hard to know because they don't get enough playing time and situational playing.  I think the Twins, even with several areas of weakness, will not do much if anything by the trade deadline.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

15 hours ago, Joe A. Preusser said:

We don't know any such thing.  Nothing happens until it happens.  

We never EVER going to sign Correa, until we did.  Twice.

We actually do know this.  Ownership talked about cutting payroll this offseason and has held to that.  They aren't going to suddenly change course because the fans want it.  

[1985Fan]

If Rocco was not the manager, one of the goals should be to stop playing Castro full time. It’s been great to have him fill in for injuries in CF and SS. This current stint at 2b seems like it’s going to be longer term. I know his offensive production has been good up to now, but we all know there will be regression. Not sure what defensive metrics say, but the eye test doesn’t look good. 
It will be difficult getting value for Farmer. FO will have to move Farmer off the roster to get Lee playing 2b and move Castro to the bench. 
 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, 1985Fan said:

If Rocco was not the manager, one of the goals should be to stop playing Castro full time. It’s been great to have him fill in for injuries in CF and SS. This current stint at 2b seems like it’s going to be longer term. I know his offensive production has been good up to now, but we all know there will be regression. Not sure what defensive metrics say, but the eye test doesn’t look good. 
It will be difficult getting value for Farmer. FO will have to move Farmer off the roster to get Lee playing 2b and move Castro to the bench. 
 

How is this on Rocco? Who should be at second given this roster? Who should have played center when Byron didn't? This is the FO....

[JD-TWINS]

32 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

How is this on Rocco? Who should be at second given this roster? Who should have played center when Byron didn't? This is the FO....

The Fan makes no sense - Castro has the Team’s most AB’s ……he’s respectable from the left side and great from the right side. You’re right - nobody else to play.  …………….,,… ”regression” to what? ‘23?? He’s good playing!

 

Farmer’s going nowhere.

Lee or Julien for Martin may happen allowing Castro to go back out to the grass.

[1985Fan]

33 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

The Fan makes no sense - Castro has the Team’s most AB’s ……he’s respectable from the left side and great from the right side. You’re right - nobody else to play.  …………….,,… ”regression” to what? ‘23?? He’s good playing!

 

Farmer’s going nowhere.

Lee or Julien for Martin may happen allowing Castro to go back out to the grass.

Regression to 2022 and earlier. He’s a career 700 OPS hitter. Didn’t do well in the playoffs last year and not good against quality pitching. Is he the long-term answer at 2b? They have a 1st round draft pick that they need to decide what to do with long term and 2b should be a spot for him. Time to see if Lee is the answer. Rocco plays Castro somewhere everyday whether he needs to or not. Im not saying get rid of him, but start using him as a utility guy should be used, 3 days a week max. If you play him in the outfield, he’s blocking 2 other 1st round draft picks. Like this article says, time to make decisions on what they have before the deadline. 

[Mike Sixel]

14 minutes ago, 1985Fan said:

Regression to 2022 and earlier. He’s a career 700 OPS hitter. Didn’t do well in the playoffs last year and not good against quality pitching. Is he the long-term answer at 2b? They have a 1st round draft pick that they need to decide what to do with long term and 2b should be a spot for him. Time to see if Lee is the answer. Rocco plays Castro somewhere everyday whether he needs to or not. Im not saying get rid of him, but start using him as a utility guy should be used, 3 days a week max. If you play him in the outfield, he’s blocking 2 other 1st round draft picks. Like this article says, time to make decisions on what they have before the deadline. 

Lee's been healthy for less than a month.....I love his promise, but I don't wee any need to move him up right now. 

[1985Fan]

21 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Lee's been healthy for less than a month.....I love his promise, but I don't wee any need to move him up right now. 

Understand. That’s one opinion. If they’re trying to improve the team, see what you have ASAP. Martin is supposed to be able play 2b as well. Schobel is 23 at AA, Keaschall is at AA moving quickly. Infield is a logjam that needs clarity. What to do with Julien? Is he finished or can they count on him this year after a reset?